Return and volatility spillovers between oil and stock markets in South Africa and Nigeria

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 484-497 ◽  
Author(s):  
Babajide Fowowe
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
South African ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Volatility Spillovers ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
Oil Markets ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Sub Saharan

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to empirically examine return and volatility spillovers between oil and the stock markets of Nigeria and South Africa. Design/methodology/approach The authors make use of an innovative new methodology of capturing spillovers, which is different from what many existing studies use. The authors employ the measures of return spillovers and volatility spillovers of Diebold and Yilmaz (2009, 2012), referred to as spillover indexes. The spillover index facilitates an assessment of the net contribution of one market in the information transmission mechanism of another market. Findings The empirical results show bi-directional, but weak interdependence between the South African and Nigerian stock markets returns and oil market returns. The results for volatility spillovers show independence of volatilities between Nigeria stock markets and oil markets, while weak bi-directional spillovers were found between South African equity volatilities and oil volatilities. The time-varying total spillover plots for returns and volatilities are broadly similar and show a trend that has been observed in other studies: an increasing trend during the non-crisis period, a burst in the crisis year, a maintained higher level of transmission afterwards. Originality/value Existing studies examining spillovers between oil and stock markets have largely ignored Sub-Saharan African markets. A common feature of existing studies is that they have been conducted for two groups of countries: either European and US markets; or Gulf Cooperation Council markets Thus, this study fills this gap in the literature by examining return and volatility spillovers between oil and the stock markets of Nigeria and South Africa.

scholarly journals Return and volatility spillovers between South African and Nigerian equity markets

2022 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lumengo Bonga-Bonga ◽  
Maphelane Palesa Phume
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
South African ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Garch Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Volatility Spillovers ◽  
Cross Transmission ◽  
The Cross

PurposeThe paper evaluates the cross-transmission of returns and volatility shocks between Nigeria and South Africa stock markets to infer the extent of interdependence between the two markets. The paper also makes inference to optimal portfolio weights of holding assets in the two markets.Design/methodology/approachThe paper uses an asymmetric vector autoregressive-exogenous generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (VAR-X GARCH) model to assess the extent of returns and volatility spillovers between Nigeria and South Africa.FindingsThe results of the empirical analysis show evidence of shock spillovers from the South African stock market to the Nigerian stock market. Moreover, based on the dynamic Sharpe ratio and portfolio weight optimisation, the results indicate the possibility of portfolio diversification when holding simultaneous positions in the two stock markets.Practical implicationsThe results imply the possibility of economic profit for investors who take positions in the two stock markets. The lack of synchronisation of stock markets in the two largest economies in Africa is in contrast with the situations in other regions where stock markets returns of large economies often co-move.Originality/valueThe paper is the first to use the asymmetric VAR-X GARCH model to assess the cross-transmission of shocks between stock markets.

scholarly journals Assessing Market Risk in BRICS and Oil Markets: An Application of Markov Switching and Vine Copula

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 30
Author(s):  
John Weirstrass Muteba Mwamba ◽  
Sutene Mwambetania Mwambi
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
South African ◽  
Asset Allocation ◽  
Markov Switching ◽  
Tail Dependence ◽  
Lower Tail ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
Oil Markets ◽  
Vine Copula

This paper investigates the dynamic tail dependence risk between BRICS economies and the world energy market, in the context of the COVID-19 financial crisis of 2020, in order to determine optimal investment decisions based on risk metrics. For this purpose, we employ a combination of novel statistical techniques, including Vector Autoregressive (VAR), Markov-switching GJR-GARCH, and vine copula methods. Using a data set consisting of daily stock and world crude oil prices, we find evidence of a structure break in the volatility process, consisting of high and low persistence volatility processes, with a high persistence in the probabilities of transition between lower and higher volatility regimes, as well as the presence of leverage effects. Furthermore, our results based on the C-vine copula confirm the existence of two types of tail dependence: symmetric tail dependence between South Africa and China, South Africa and Russia, and South Africa and India, and asymmetric lower tail dependence between South Africa and Brazil, and South Africa and crude oil. For the purpose of diversification in these markets, we formulate an asset allocation problem using raw returns, MS GARCH returns, and C-vine and R-vine copula-based returns, and optimize it using a Particle Swarm optimization algorithm with a rebalancing strategy. The results demonstrate an inverse relationship between the risk contribution and asset allocation of South Africa and the crude oil market, supporting the existence of a lower tail dependence between them. This suggests that, when South African stocks are in distress, investors tend to shift their holdings in the oil market. Similar results are found between Russia and crude oil, as well as Brazil and crude oil. In the symmetric tail, South African asset allocation is found to have a well-diversified relationship with that of China, Russia, and India, suggesting that these three markets might be good investment destinations when things are not good in South Africa, and vice versa.

Explaining stock market returns in Sub-Saharan Africa using an alternate uncovered interest rate parity framework

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kofi Bondzie Afful ◽  
William Opoku
Keyword(s):  
Money Supply ◽  
Random Effects ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Critical Examination ◽  
Panel Regression ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Dynamic Panel ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Dynamic Panel Regression ◽  
Sub Saharan

PurposeSub-Saharan African (SSA) stock exchanges are imperfect and inefficient. Therefore, orthodox finance theories are unable to completely explain their market returns. Such models mainly identify anomalies when applied to the sub-region. Consequently, this paper develops an original theoretical model to better explain market returns on the sub-continent.Design/methodology/approachThis paper develops an alternate analytical framework that combines adaptive expectations, Keynesian LM model and modified uncovered interest parity (UIP) formulations to address empirical anomalies identified by previous literature when analyzing SSA's inefficient stock markets. Using panel data, the study first computes the fixed as well as random effects regressions and, later, a Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) dynamic panel regression for further empirical analysis.FindingsBoth the fixed and random effects regression results indicate that the relative output-money supply disparity and foreign inflation-money supply growth rate spread have positive effects on market returns in SSA. On the other hand, foreign interest rates have an inverse effect. Although the GMM dynamic panel regression has similar results, it additionally finds that market returns in SSA are autoregressive. This suggests that past returns are persistent.Research limitations/implicationsA key implication is that multipliers and transmission mechanisms in SSA may take longer to adjust, thereby limiting short-run market returns. Also, policymakers must encourage a critical mass of firms to list in order to enhance efficiency. Additionally, policy variables significantly influence returns. One limitation is the high market segmentation in SSA. This heightens heterogeneity, emphasizing fixed effects.Practical implicationsAlso, the findings of this study may not apply to all emerging economies as SSA economies are highly heterogeneous.Social implicationsThe segmented nature of SSA stock markets may have implications for income inequality and the distribution of resources within the economy. Also, it indicates that there are limits to how firms use capital markets on the sub-continent.Originality/valueThis paper abstracts from the strict ideal market conditions prescribed by modern finance theories and develops an original modified UIP model. It finds that SSA stock markets may be more sensitive to policy variables, instead of determinants postulated by orthodox finance concepts. The study offers opportunities for further critical examination of returns in imperfect frontier markets.

Behavioral explanation of contagion between oil and stock markets

2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 121-144 ◽  
Author(s):  
Achraf Ghorbel ◽  
Mouna Abbes Boujelbene ◽  
Younes Boujelbene
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
Us Financial Crisis

Purpose – This paper aims to investigate empirical evidence of behavioral contagion between oil market, US market and stock markets of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries, during the oil shock and US financial crisis period of 2008-2009, after controlling for fundamentals-driven co-movements. Design/methodology/approach – To examine the volatility spillover among oil market and stock markets, the conditional variance of the trivariate BEKK-GARCH model includes three variables: oil returns, US index returns, and the respective individual market returns of 22 oil-importing and exporting countries. The authors estimate the time-varying correlation coefficients between the prediction error of oil market and each stock index. Also, the authors estimate the time-varying correlation coefficients between the prediction error of US market and each stock index. Findings – The estimation of the trivariate BEKK-GARCH model for VIX, oil market and 23 stock markets of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries suggests the volatility spillover of American investor sentiment to stock market and oil market returns. To capture the pure contagion effects between oil market and stock markets, the authors estimate the forecasting errors of time-varying parameter using the Kalman independently of macroeconomic fundamentals factors. The authors analyze the dynamic correlation between forecasting errors of oil price returns and stock indices returns. The authors show a sharp increase in time-varying correlation coefficients during the oil crisis and US financial crisis period of 2008-2009, which provides strong evidence of herding contagion between oil market and stock markets during the turmoil period. Originality/value – This paper makes an original contribution in identifying the behavioral contagion between oil market, US market and stock markets of oil-importing and exporting countries especially during the oil shock and US financial crisis period of 2008-2009. Specifically, the authors consider investor sentiment and herding bias to explain the volatility transmission between oil and stock market returns.

Shock and volatility spillovers between oil and emerging seven stock markets

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Muzammil Khurshid ◽  
Berna Kirkulak-Uludag
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Volatility Spillover ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Volatility Spillovers ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
High Level

Purpose This study aims to examine the volatility spillover effects between oil and stock returns in the emerging seven economies. Design/methodology/approach In this study, the Granger causality test and vector autoregression-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity approach to analyze the volatility spillover from 1995 to 2019 were used. The findings provide evidence of significant volatility spillover between oil and Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia and Turkey (E7) stock markets. Findings All emerging seven stock markets exhibit positive and low constant conditional correlations with oil assets. The magnitude of the correlation changes in respond to the country’s net position in the crude oil market. While a relatively high level of correlation exists between oil and the stock markets of net oil-exporting countries, a relatively low level of correlation exists between oil and the stock markets of net oil-importing countries. Originality/value The findings suggest that oil asset improves the risk-adjusted performance of a well-diversified portfolio of stocks. However, investors should invest a larger portion of their portfolios in E7 stock markets than in oil.

scholarly journals Shopping list development and use of advertisements’ pre-store food-buying practices within different socio-economic status areas in South Africa

2017 ◽  
Vol 119 (12) ◽  
pp. 2880-2902
Author(s):  
Rodney Graeme Duffett ◽  
Crystal Foster
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
South African ◽  
Developing Country ◽  
Economic Status ◽  
Demographic Characteristics ◽  
Low Ses ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Shopping List ◽  
Food Shopping ◽  
Food Buying Practices

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to determine whether there is a difference in the development of shopping lists and use of advertisements as pre-store food-buying practices in terms of planned shopping by South African consumers who dwell in different socio-economic status (SES) areas. The paper also considers the influence of shopper and socio-demographic characteristics on pre-store food-buying practices in a developing country. Design/methodology/approach A self-administered questionnaire was used to survey 1 200 consumers in retail stores in low, middle and high SES areas in South Africa. A generalised linear model was employed for the statistical analysis of pre-store food-buying practices within the SES area groups in a developing country. Findings South African consumers that reside in high SES area displayed the largest of shopping list development, while consumers who dwell in low SES areas showed the highest incidence of advertisement usage. Several shopper and socio-demographic characteristics were also found to have an influence on pre-store food-buying practices in different SES areas in South Africa. Research limitations/implications A qualitative approach would offer a deeper understanding of consumers’ pre-store food shopping predispositions as opposed to the quantitative approach, which was adopted for this study. A longitudinal design would also provide a more extensive representation of pre-store food shopping practices over a longer time frame than cross-sectional research. The survey was conducted on Saturdays, whereas consumers who shop during the week may have different shopping and socio-demographic characteristics. Practical implications Astute food brands, marketers and grocery stores could use the findings of this study to assist with their marketing efforts that they direct at consumers in different SES areas in South Africa and other developing countries. Social implications The findings of this study may assist consumers in developing countries, especially those who reside in low SES areas, with food-buying strategies to reduce food costs, make wiser purchase decisions and reduce shopping. Originality/value No study (to the best of the researchers’ knowledge) has considered shopping list development and use of advertisements’ pre-store food-buying practices in different SES areas in a developing country. Furthermore, there is a dearth of research analysing shopper and socio-demographic characteristics in relation to pre-store food-buying practices among different SES areas in developing and developed countries.

An overview of the current state of interlibrary loans in South Africa

2015 ◽  
Vol 43 (2) ◽  
pp. 76-83
Author(s):  
Jenny Raubenheimer ◽  
John Stephen van Niekerk
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
South African ◽  
Information Provision ◽  
Literature Study ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Current Trends ◽  
Current State ◽  
Computer Library ◽  
Practical Implications ◽  
Essential Service

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to review interlending development in South Africa and current trends in interlending. Design/methodology/approach – Literature study and survey. Findings – Interlending is still an essential service in South Africa. Interlending systems must be used effectively to ensure rapid delivery of requested interlibrary loans. There is a significant use of WorldShare ILL, but there is a scope for substantial development. Research limitations/implications – This is not a comprehensive study but focusses on current interlending activities at some of the larger South African academic and special libraries and the use of Online Computer Library Centre systems. Practical implications – The paper provides some historical information and the extent of current interlending and systems used. Social implications – The paper gives an indication of the value of interlending in South Africa and its contribution to information provision. Originality/value – The paper provides a snapshot of interlending in South Africa and areas for development.

Risk management factors contributing to transgressions in the procurement practices in South African SOEs

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lindani Myeza ◽  
Naledi Nkhi ◽  
Warren Maroun
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Public Sector ◽  
South African ◽  
Public Procurement ◽  
African State ◽  
Political Influence ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Executive Level

PurposeThe study aims to deepen the understanding of why risk management principles are circumvented, thereby contributing to transgressions in public procurement for South African state-owned enterprises (SOEs). A deeper understanding of why risk management principles are circumvented is especially important in South Africa, given the high social, economic and environmental risks to which national and major SOEs are exposed in the procurement process.Design/methodology/approachThe study uses a qualitative design, based on detailed semi-structured interviews with 19 participants comprising management advisors, forensic investigators and auditors to explore why risk management principles are circumvented by South Africa SOEs.FindingsThe results of the study indicate that the tone that is set at political and executive level plays an important role in determining compliance with risk management principles by lower-level staff. Intense levels of political influence at SOEs are the main reason behind risk management systems being undermined.Originality/valueThe current study is one of the first explorations of why transgressions in public procurement continue to be evident despite risk management reforms being adopted by South Africa public sector. The research responds to the call for more studies on why reforms in South Africa public sector are not reducing transgression in public procurement. The study provides primary evidence on the importance of political and executive leadership in influencing the effectiveness of risk management reforms in the public sector.

A quantile regression approach to evaluate the relative impact of global and local factors on the MENA stock markets

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Slah Bahloul ◽  
Nawel Ben Amor
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Quantile Regression ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Financial Integration ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis paper investigates the relative importance of local macroeconomic and global factors in the explanation of twelve MENA (Middle East and North Africa) stock market returns across the different quantiles in order to determine their degree of international financial integration.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use both ordinary least squares and quantile regressions from January 2007 to January 2018. Quantile regression permits to know how the effects of explanatory variables vary across the different states of the market.FindingsThe results of this paper indicate that the impact of local macroeconomic and global factors differs across the quantiles and markets. Generally, there are wide ranges in degree of international integration and most of MENA stock markets appear to be weakly integrated. This reveals that the portfolio diversification within the stock markets in this region is still beneficial.Originality/valueThis paper is original for two reasons. First, it emphasizes, over a fairly long period, the impact of a large number of macroeconomic and global variables on the MENA stock market returns. Second, it examines if the relative effects of these factors on MENA stock returns vary or not across the market states and MENA countries.

Sustainable housing financing model to reduce South Africa housing deficit

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 410-430 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bashir Olanrewaju Ganiyu ◽  
Julius Ayodeji Fapohunda ◽  
Rainer Haldenwang
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
South African ◽  
Affordable Housing ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
South African Government ◽  
The South ◽  
African Government ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Mortgage Payment

Purpose This study aims to identify and establish effective housing financing concepts to be adopted by government in achieving its mandate of providing sustainable affordable housing for the poor to decrease the building of shacks, as well as proposing solutions to the housing deficit in South Africa. A rise in demand and shortage in supply of housing calls for the need to address issues of affordable housing in South Africa, and developing countries in general, to ensure a stable and promising future for poor families. Design/methodology/approach Literature has revealed that the South African government, at all levels, accorded high priority to the provision of low-cost housing. Thus, government has adopted subsidy payment as a method of financing affordable housing to ensure that houses are allocated free to the beneficiaries. This also addresses the historically race-based inequalities of the past, but unfortunately, this has not been fully realised. This study uses a sequential mixed method approach, where private housing developers and general building contractors were the research participants. The qualitative data were analysed using a case-by-case analysis, and quantitative data were analysed using a descriptive statistical technique on SPSS. Findings The results of the qualitative analysis reveal a gross abuse of the housing subsidies system by the beneficiaries of government-funded housing in South Africa. This is evident from illegal sale of the houses below market value. This has led to a continual building of shacks and an increased number of people on the housing waiting list instead of a decrease in the housing deficit. The results from quantitative analysis affirm the use of “Mortgage Payment Subsidies, Mortgage Payment Deductions, Down-Payment Grant and Mortgage Interest Deductions” as viable alternatives to subsidy payment currently in use to finance affordable housing projects by the South African Government. Practical implications At the moment, the focus of the South African National Government is continual provision of free housing to the historically disadvantage citizens, but the housing financing method being used encourages unapproved transfer of ownership in the affordable housing sector. This study thus recommends the use of an all-inclusive housing financing method that requires a monetary contribution from the beneficiaries to enable them take control of the process. Originality/value The relational interface model proposed in this study will reduce pressure on government budgetary provision for housing and guarantee quick return of private developers’ investment in housing. Government must, as a matter of urgency, launch a continuous awareness programme to educate the low-income population on the value and the long-term benefits of the housing.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document