Government spending multipliers over business cycle

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-29 ◽  
Author(s):  
Naser Yenus Nuru
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Threshold Value ◽  
Economic Cycle ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
State Dependent ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Spending Shocks

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to show the asymmetric effects of government spending shocks for South Africa over the period 1960Q1–2014Q2. Design/methodology/approach A threshold vector autoregressive model that allows parameters to switch according to whether a threshold variable crosses an estimated threshold is employed to address the objective of this paper. The threshold value is determined endogenously using Hansen (1996) test. Generalized impulse responses introduced by Koop et al. (1996) are used to study the effects of government spending shocks on growth depending on their size, sign and timing with respect to the economic cycle. The author also uses a Cholesky decomposition identification scheme in order to identify discretionary government spending shocks in the non-linear model. Findings The empirical findings support the state-dependent effects of fiscal policy. In particular, the effects of 1 or 2 standard deviations expansionary or contractionary government spending shock on output are very small both on impact and in the long run; and a bit larger in downturns but has only a very limited effect or no effect in times of expansion. This result gives support to the evidence in the recent literature that fiscal policy in developing countries is overwhelmingly procyclical. Originality/value It adds to the scarce empirical fiscal literature of the South African economy in particular and developing economies in general by allowing non-linearities to estimate the effect of government spending shocks over economic cycle.

Government Spending Shocks and External Competitiveness: Evidence from South Africa

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (03) ◽  
pp. 2050013
Author(s):  
Naser Yenus Nuru
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Impulse Responses ◽  
Economic Cycle ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Spending Shocks ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

This study examines the effects of government spending shocks on real effective exchange rate in South Africa over the period 1970Q1–2019Q2. In doing so, a version of vector autoregressive impulse response model developed by Jordà is employed and the shocks are identified recursively. The impulse responses show that government spending shock has a significant appreciation effect on real effective exchange rate and its effect depends on the nature of the fiscal shock. Although the effect of government spending on real effective exchange rate does not depend on the sign of the shock, it varies over economic cycle.

The fiscal policy and the dynamic of the economic cycle

2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (2) ◽  
pp. 231-241
Author(s):  
Huthaifa Alqaralleh
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Threshold Value ◽  
Policy Framework ◽  
Economic Cycle ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Unobserved Component ◽  
Cyclical Fluctuations ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Unobserved Component Model

PurposeThis study seeks to determine in some detail whether the state of the economic cycle matters in considering the effects of fiscal policy shocks on output.Design/methodology/approachThis issue leads us to two primary objectives: to define the economic cycle measuring the gap with the unobserved component model with a smoother trend, which can be used efficiently to generate gap measures for use in real-time decision-making and avoids the criticisms of measures based on contentious structural models; and to look empirically at the fiscal policy stance over the phases of the cycle, bearing in mind the short time variation and smooth change between the cycle regimes.FindingsThis paper provides evidence that the fiscal policy rule seems to operate with varied coefficients depending on whether the transition variable is below or above the estimated threshold value.Originality/valueThe asymmetric response gives policymakers the impetus to reconsider the fiscal policy framework because of specific circumstances, such as shocks that can dramatically affect the nominal features of the business cycle. Put differently, stable and moderate fiscal policies would at least not contribute to cyclical fluctuations, and therefore would be better than what we have typically experienced. There would, therefore, seem to be a distinct need to address the properties of economic cycles under different fiscal policy rules.

Are there asymmetries in fiscal policy shocks?

2015 ◽  
Vol 42 (2) ◽  
pp. 303-321 ◽  
Author(s):  
Periklis Gogas ◽  
Ioannis Pragidis
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Government Revenue ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Keynesian Theory ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Cyclical Component ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
Spending Shocks

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to test the effects of unanticipated fiscal policy shocks on the growth rate and the cyclical component of real private output and reveal different types of asymmetries in fiscal policy implementation. Design/methodology/approach – The authors use two alternative vector autoregressive systems in order to construct the fiscal policy shocks: one with the simple sum monetary aggregate MZM and one with the alternative CFS Divisia MZM aggregate. From each one of these systems we extracted four types of shocks: a negative and a positive government spending shock and a negative and a positive government revenue shock. These eight different types of unanticipated fiscal shocks were used next to empirically examine their effects on the growth rate and cyclical component of real private GNP in two sets of regressions: one that assumes only contemporaneous effects of the shocks on output and one that is augmented with four lags of each fiscal shock. Findings – The authors come up with three key findings: first, all fiscal multipliers are below unity but with signs as predicted by Keynesian theory. Second, government expenditures have a larger impact as compared to the tax policy and finally, positive government spending shocks are more significant than negative spending shocks. All these results are in line with previous studies and are robust through many tests using structural identification proposed by Blanchard and Perotti (2002). Practical implications – The empirical findings in this manuscript can be used for conducting a more efficient fiscal policy. The importance of government spending shocks is empirically verified along with the asymmetries related to price stickiness predicted by Keynesian theory. According to the results an efficient fiscal policy would: in terms of an expansionary policy, use government spending as a means to stimulate the economy instead of tax cuts and in the case of a contractionary policy use government revenue (higher taxes) so that the costs of this policy in terms of output lost are lower. Originality/value – In this study the authors introduce three main innovations: first, to the best of our knowledge the Divisia monetary aggregates have not yet been used to previous research pertaining to fiscal policy. Second, following Cover’s (1992) procedure of identifying monetary policy shocks we extract the unanticipated fiscal policy shocks on government spending and revenue. Finally, the authors explicitly test for the asymmetric effects on the growth rate and the cyclical component of real private GNP of a contractionary and expansionary fiscal policy.

scholarly journals Assessing the Role of Sentiment in the Propagation of Fiscal Stimulus

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bijie Jia ◽  
Hyeongwoo Kim ◽  
Shuwei Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Fiscal Stimulus ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Private Activity ◽  
State Dependent ◽  
Private Spending ◽  
The Government ◽  
Post War

Abstract This paper studies the dynamic effects of the fiscal policy shock on private activity using an array of vector autoregressive models for the post-war U.S. data. We are particularly interested in the role of consumer sentiment in the transmission of fiscal stimulus. Our major findings are as follows. Private spending fails to rise persistently in response to government spending shocks, while they exhibit persistent and significant increases when the sentiment shock occurs. Employing not only linear but also nonlinear state-dependent VAR model estimations, we show that the government spending shock generates consumer pessimism in all phases of business cycle resulting in subsequent decreases in private activity, which ultimately weakens the effectiveness of the fiscal policy. Our counterfactual simulation exercises confirm the important role of sentiment in propagating fiscal stimulus to private spending.

The effects of government spending shocks on income distribution in South Africa

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Naser Yenus Nuru ◽  
Mola Gebremeskel Zeratsion
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Income Inequality ◽  
Income Distribution ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Government Investment ◽  
Government Consumption ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Labour Share ◽  
Spending Shocks

PurposeThe main aim of this study is to examine the effect of government spending and its components' shocks on the distribution of income between labour and capital in South Africa for the period between 1994Q2 and 2019Q3.Design/methodology/approachThe effects of government spending shocks on income distribution are analysed using Jordà's (2005) local projection method. The shocks, however, are identified by applying short-run contemporaneous restrictions in a vector autoregressive model based on Cholesky identification scheme.FindingsThe results indicate that government spending shock has a positive and significant effect on labour share after the first quarter. This means that expansionary government spending has a paramount role in reducing income inequality in the economy. Both government investment and government consumption shocks have also contributed to a reduction in income inequality, though the magnitude effect is smaller for government consumption.Originality/valueResearch findings on the effects of government spending shock on income inequality are still inconclusive. Therefore, this research examines the effect of total government spending shock along with its components on labour income share for the South African economy.

scholarly journals State-dependent effects of fiscal policy

2015 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven M. Fazzari ◽  
James Morley ◽  
Irina Panovska
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Model Comparison ◽  
Capacity Utilization ◽  
Threshold Level ◽  
Response Analysis ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Bayesian Model Comparison ◽  
State Dependent ◽  
The Government

AbstractWe investigate the effects of government spending on US output with a threshold structural vector autoregressive model. We consider Bayesian model comparison and generalized impulse response analysis to test for nonlinearities in the responses of output to government spending. Our empirical findings support state-dependent effects of fiscal policy, with the government spending multiplier larger and more persistent whenever there is considerable economic slack. Based on capacity utilization as the preferred threshold variable, the estimated multiplier is large (1.6) for a low-utilization regime that accounts for more than half of the sample observations from 1967 to 2012 according to the estimated threshold level.

The effect of fiscal policy on economic growth in South Africa: a nonlinear ARDL model analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Naser Yenus Nuru ◽  
Hayelom Yrgaw Gereziher
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Asymmetric Effects ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Change Effect ◽  
Short Run

PurposeThe main purpose of this study is to investigate the short-run and long-run asymmetric effects of fiscal policy, namely government spending on economic growth over the sample period 2004Q2 up to 2018Q1 for the South African economy.Design/methodology/approachNonlinear autoregressive distributive lag model is used to examine the short-run and long-run asymmetric effects of government spending on economic growth.FindingsThe results exhibit the negative change effect of government spending is found to be greater than the positive change effect of government spending on economic growth. Real effective exchange rate is found to have a positive and significant effect on economic growth both in the short run and long run. Whereas, inflation rate affects economic growth negatively and significantly in the short run and long run.Originality/valuePrevious empirical studies on the effect of fiscal policy on growth, at least for South Africa, consider only the asymmetric short-run effect while this paper extends the literature by incorporating asymmetries into the long-run effect. It provides a detailed analysis to the recent controversies on the effects of fiscal policy on growth.

The effects of government spending shocks on real exchange rate in Ethiopia

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hiluf Techane Gidey ◽  
Naser Yenus Nuru
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Government Investment ◽  
Government Consumption ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Spending Shocks

PurposeGovernment spending has inconclusive effect on real exchange rate. From the very beginning neoclassical economists argued that a rise in government spending brings depreciation in real exchange rate while neo-Keynesians claimed that government spending appreciates real exchange rate. Hence, the main purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of government spending shock and its components' shocks, namely government consumption and government investment on real exchange rate over the period 2001Q1–2016Q1 for Ethiopia.Design/methodology/approachTo examine the effects of government spending shocks on real exchange rate, Jordà's (2005) local projection method is employed in this study. The exogenous shocks, however, are identified recursively in a vector autoregressive model.FindingsThe impulse responses show that government spending shock leads to a statistically significant appreciation of real exchange rate in Ethiopia. This evidence supports the neo-Keynesian school of thought who predicts an appreciation of real exchange rate from a rise in government spending. While government investment shock depreciates real exchange rate on impact insignificantly, government consumption shock appreciates real exchange rate in this small open economy.Originality/valueThis research contributes to the scarce literature on the effect of fiscal policy shock on real exchange rate in small open economies like Ethiopia.

Government spending shocks and economic growth: additional evidence from cyclical behavior of fiscal policy

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Olumide Olusegun Olaoye ◽  
Ukafor Ukafor Okorie ◽  
Oluwatosin Odunayo Eluwole ◽  
Mahmood Butt Fawwad
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
The State ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Asymmetric Effect ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Spending Shocks ◽  
The Business Cycle

PurposeThis study examines the asymmetric effect of government spending on economic growth in Nigeria over the period 1980–2017. Specifically, this study investigates whether the response of economic growth to government spending shocks differs according to the nature of shocks on them. In addition, the authors examine whether the stabilizing effects of fiscal policies are dependent on the state of the business cycle.Design/methodology/approachThe study adopts the linear fiscal reaction function in addition to the nonlinear regression model of Hatemi-J (2011, 2012), Granger and Yoon (2002), which allows us to separate negative shocks from positive shocks to government spending. Similarly, the authors adopt the generalized method of moments (GMM) techniques of Hansen (1982) to account for simultaneity and endogeneity problems inherent in dynamic model.FindingsThe authors’ findings reveal that there is evidence of asymmetry in the government spending–economic growth nexus in Nigeria over the period of study. Specifically, the authors find that the response of economic growth to government spending shocks differs according to the nature of shocks on them. More specifically, the study established that the stabilizing effects of fiscal policies are dependent on the state of the business cycle.Originality/valueUnlike the traditional method of modeling asymmetry, which adopts the simple inclusion of a squared government spending term or by the inclusion of a cubic government spending term, the model adopted in this study allows us to model shocks and show how the responses of economic growth to government expenditure differ according to the nature of shocks on them.

HABIT FORMATION AND GOVERNMENT SPENDING IN A SMALL OPEN ECONOMY

2003 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 407-423 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cem Karayalçin
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Equilibrium Model ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Time Preference ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Fiscal Shocks

The paper studies the effects of an expansionary fiscal policy in a general equilibrium model of a small open economy. Households are assumed to possess habit-forming, endogenous rates of time preference. In response to fiscal shocks, the model generates cyclical endogenous persistence and procyclical time paths for consumption, employment, and investment, as well as a countercyclical path for the current account. Furthermore, fiscal shocks are shown to have positive long-run effects on output and negative long-run effects on consumption.

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