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Animals ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 100
Author(s):  
Katarzyna Utnik-Banaś ◽  
Tomasz Schwarz ◽  
Elzbieta Jadwiga Szymanska ◽  
Pawel Mieczyslaw Bartlewski ◽  
Łukasz Satoła

The aim of this study was to analyze the factors that can influence pork prices, particularly the effects of various types of fluctuations on the volatility of pork prices in the European Union as a whole market and individual EU countries. The research material consisted of monthly time series of pork prices collected from 2009 to 2020. These data originated from the Integrated System of Agricultural Information coordinated by the Polish Ministry of Agriculture. Information on global pork production volumes is from the Food and Agriculture Organization Statistics (FAOSTAT) database. Time series of prices were described by the multiplicative model, and seasonal breakdown was performed using the Census X-11 method. The separation of the cyclical component of the trend was performed using the Hodrick–Prescott filter. In 2019, pork production in the European Union totaled 23,954 thousand tonnes, which accounted for 21.8% of global pork production. The largest producers were Germany, Spain, and France, supplying more than half of the pork to the entire European Union market. Pork prices in the EU, averaged over the 2009–2020 period were Euro (EUR) 154.63/100 kg. The highest prices for pork were recorded in Malta, Cyprus, Bulgaria, and Greece, whereas the lowest prices in Belgium, the Netherlands, Denmark, and France. The breakdown of the time series for pork prices confirmed that, in the period from 2009 to 2020, pork prices exhibited considerable fluctuations of both a long-term and medium-term nature as well as short-term seasonal and irregular fluctuations. Prices were higher than average in summer (with a peak in June–August) and lower in winter (January–March). Overall, the proportions of different types of changes in pork prices were as follows: random changes—7.9%, seasonal changes—36.6%, and cyclical changes—55.5%.


2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 7-17
Author(s):  
Olha Prokopenko ◽  
◽  
Cholpon Toktosunova ◽  
Nurmira Sharsheeva ◽  
Rita Zablotska ◽  
...  

The article is devoted to substantiating the expediency of reorienting international investment flows, under the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic, from traditional directions to projects related to social transformation. It is proved that such transformations should be expressed first of all in qualitative changes in education, medicine and employment. Particular attention is paid to the modernization of the paradigm of sustainable development, the components of which should be ranked from social to environmental. The necessity of interpretation of investment strategies implemented in the countries following their common problems is substantiated. Also, attention is paid to the substantiation of the cyclical component, its role in the redistribution of investment flows at the state level. The article proposed cluster investment to solve this problem.


2021 ◽  
Vol 76 (1) ◽  
pp. 117-129
Author(s):  
Jacek Jurkojć ◽  
Piotr Wodarski ◽  
Robert Michnik ◽  
Wojciech Marszałek ◽  
Kajetan J. Słomka ◽  
...  

Abstract Assessment of human balance is one of the most common diagnostic tests, both in medical applications and during sports training. Many new methods of measuring are introduced in these studies; however, the analysis of results is still carried out mainly based on the values determined in the time domain – the average COP speed or the ellipse field of the prediction. The aim of the current work is to present the possibilities for the practical application of frequency analyses in assessment of the ability to maintain body balance as a method supplementing standard analyses. As part of the study, measurements of the ability to maintain balance in sensory conflict conditions introduced in the form of an oscillating, three-dimensional, virtual scenery were carried out. 27 healthy volunteers (13 women and 14 men) took part in the study. The three-dimensional scenery, presented by means of the Oculus system, oscillated in the sagittal plane with frequencies equal to 0.7 Hz and 1.4 Hz. The frequency value during the measurement was constant or changed in the middle of the test. Measurements were conducted on the FDM Zebris platform. The results were analyzed using developed coefficients determined on the basis of the Short-time Fourier transform (STFT). The use of frequency-domain analyses confirmed that in the COP movement, one can observe a cyclical component corresponding to following the scenery, as well as the appearance of other cyclical components whose observation is important in terms of assessing the ability to maintain balance. It has been shown that the changes in the average COP speed that occur during the measurement can result from changes related to the movement of following the scenery as well as additional body movements indicating a greater or lesser loss of balance. It has been shown that there are differences in the COP movement provoked by the movement of the surrounding scenery, which depend on the parameters of the introduced disturbances – something that can only be observed in results obtained in the frequency domain. The conducted research shows that in measurements involving the ability to maintain one’s balance conducted in sensory conflict conditions, standard time-domain analyses should be supplemented with other types of data analysis, e.g. frequency domain analyses.


Author(s):  
M.Yu.­ MALKINA ◽  

The purpose of the study is to assess and analyze the resilience of the economic development of Russian regions. Based on five main development indicators, using the Mahalanobis distance technique to design a composite index, constructing its temporal regressions and separating the trend component from the cyclical component, assessments of the level of development instability in 83 Russian regions in 2000-2017 are obtained. The hypotheses about the positive relationship of development instability with the level and rate of regional development, and about the negative relationship of instability with the level of sectoral diversification of the economy are confirmed.


2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 907-919 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marinko Škare ◽  
Małgorzata Porada-Rochoń

Our study bridges the gap between in previous research on the synchronization between financial and business cycles over a long period. Using the data for the UK from 1270 to 2016 we analyze the synchronization between financial and business cycles using spectral Granger causality (Breitung & Candelon, 2006). Our paper brings several important findings to the discussion on the financial and business cycle link. Our paper is the first one (to the best of our knowledge) that use data over a long period spanning several centuries. We use spectral analysis and advanced spectral analysis (SSA) and (MSSA) to study the relationship between financial and business cycles in the long run. Paper results show financial and business cycles series moves along over the medium-term spectrum. We find a strong link between the cyclical component in the output (real GDP series) and the cyclical component in the financial series (housing price, credit).


2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 131-154
Author(s):  
Muhammad Nadim Hanif ◽  
Javaid Iqbal ◽  
Syed Hamza Ali ◽  
Muhammad Abdus Salam

AbstractExisting measures of core inflation ignore a part of ‘should be’ the core inflation. Exclusion based measures ‘exclude’ a part of persistent inflation inherently existing in the excluded part whereas filter based measures ‘filter-out’ the cyclical part also rather than the irregular component only. This study proposes a new idea to define and measure core inflation – noise free inflation or denoised inflation. As against considering only trend to define core inflation, this study proposes using cyclical component also to be part of core inflation. If core inflation is to be useful, for monetary policy making, as an indicator of underlying inflation, it has to include demand related component of inflation associated with current economic cycle. By using wavelet analysis approach to decompose seasonally adjusted price index into noise, cyclical component and trend, we estimate a denoised inflation series for Pakistan for the period July 1992 to June 2017. Since denoised inflation passes ‘statistical’ as well as ‘theoretical’ tests necessary for a series to be core inflation, we think it can be used as a new core inflation measure for Pakistan. This can also be estimated and tested for any country.


2020 ◽  
Vol 36 (5) ◽  
pp. 840-870 ◽  
Author(s):  
Neslihan Sakarya ◽  
Robert M. de Jong

This article explores a simple property of the Hodrick–Prescott (HP) filter: when the HP filter is applied to a series, the cyclical component is equal to the HP-filtered trend of the fourth difference of the series, except for the first and last two observations, for which different formulas are needed. We use this result to derive small sample results and asymptotic results for a fixed smoothing parameter. We first apply this property to analyze the consequences of a deterministic break. We find that the effect of a deterministic break on the cyclical component is asymptotically negligible for the points that are away from the break point, while for the points in the neighborhood of the break point, the effect is not negligible even asymptotically. Second, we apply this property to show that the cyclical component of the HP filter when applied to series that are integrated up to order 2 is weakly dependent, while the situation for series that are integrated up to order 3 or 4 is more subtle. Third, we characterize the behavior of the HP filter when applied to deterministic polynomial trends and show that in the middle of the sample, the cyclical component reduces the order of the polynomial by 4, while the end point behavior is different. Finally, we give a characterization of the HP filter when applied to an exponential deterministic trend, and this characterization shows that the filter is effectively incapable of dealing with a trend that increases this fast. Our results are compared with those of Phillips and Jin (2015, Business cycles, trend elimination, and the HP filter).


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