scholarly journals State-dependent effects of fiscal policy

2015 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven M. Fazzari ◽  
James Morley ◽  
Irina Panovska
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Model Comparison ◽  
Capacity Utilization ◽  
Threshold Level ◽  
Response Analysis ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Bayesian Model Comparison ◽  
State Dependent ◽  
The Government

AbstractWe investigate the effects of government spending on US output with a threshold structural vector autoregressive model. We consider Bayesian model comparison and generalized impulse response analysis to test for nonlinearities in the responses of output to government spending. Our empirical findings support state-dependent effects of fiscal policy, with the government spending multiplier larger and more persistent whenever there is considerable economic slack. Based on capacity utilization as the preferred threshold variable, the estimated multiplier is large (1.6) for a low-utilization regime that accounts for more than half of the sample observations from 1967 to 2012 according to the estimated threshold level.

scholarly journals Assessing the Role of Sentiment in the Propagation of Fiscal Stimulus

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bijie Jia ◽  
Hyeongwoo Kim ◽  
Shuwei Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Fiscal Stimulus ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Private Activity ◽  
State Dependent ◽  
Private Spending ◽  
The Government ◽  
Post War

Abstract This paper studies the dynamic effects of the fiscal policy shock on private activity using an array of vector autoregressive models for the post-war U.S. data. We are particularly interested in the role of consumer sentiment in the transmission of fiscal stimulus. Our major findings are as follows. Private spending fails to rise persistently in response to government spending shocks, while they exhibit persistent and significant increases when the sentiment shock occurs. Employing not only linear but also nonlinear state-dependent VAR model estimations, we show that the government spending shock generates consumer pessimism in all phases of business cycle resulting in subsequent decreases in private activity, which ultimately weakens the effectiveness of the fiscal policy. Our counterfactual simulation exercises confirm the important role of sentiment in propagating fiscal stimulus to private spending.

Government spending multipliers over business cycle

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-29 ◽  
Author(s):  
Naser Yenus Nuru
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Threshold Value ◽  
Economic Cycle ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
State Dependent ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Spending Shocks

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to show the asymmetric effects of government spending shocks for South Africa over the period 1960Q1–2014Q2. Design/methodology/approach A threshold vector autoregressive model that allows parameters to switch according to whether a threshold variable crosses an estimated threshold is employed to address the objective of this paper. The threshold value is determined endogenously using Hansen (1996) test. Generalized impulse responses introduced by Koop et al. (1996) are used to study the effects of government spending shocks on growth depending on their size, sign and timing with respect to the economic cycle. The author also uses a Cholesky decomposition identification scheme in order to identify discretionary government spending shocks in the non-linear model. Findings The empirical findings support the state-dependent effects of fiscal policy. In particular, the effects of 1 or 2 standard deviations expansionary or contractionary government spending shock on output are very small both on impact and in the long run; and a bit larger in downturns but has only a very limited effect or no effect in times of expansion. This result gives support to the evidence in the recent literature that fiscal policy in developing countries is overwhelmingly procyclical. Originality/value It adds to the scarce empirical fiscal literature of the South African economy in particular and developing economies in general by allowing non-linearities to estimate the effect of government spending shocks over economic cycle.

scholarly journals Economic policy and confidence of economic agents – a causal relationship?

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 471-484
Author(s):  
Silvo Dajčman
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Consumer Confidence ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Economic Agents ◽  
Business Confidence ◽  
The Government

AbstractThe purpose of this paper is to study whether innovations in monetary and fiscal policy are a leading indicator of future business and consumer confidence and reverse applying the panel Granger causality analysis to two periods in the history of the euro area: before and after the start of the Great Recession. The results show that Granger causality interaction between the confidence of economic agents and the stance of monetary policy (measured by the shadow rate) is stronger than between the former and the fiscal policy instruments. The European Central Bank (ECB) shadow rate innovations Granger caused business and consumer confidence in both periods, but also indicators of confidence Granger caused the shadow rate. No such feedback could be established between two fiscal policy instruments (government expenditure and revenue growth) and the indicators of confidence. Government spending and revenues Granger caused business confidence in the first subperiod, but not in the second subperiod when the causality reversed. The government revenues Granger caused consumer confidence in the first subperiod, while government expenditures in the second subperiod. Consumer confidence Granger caused government spending in the first subperiod.

The Impact of Fiscal Policy on Economic Activity over the Business Cycle: An Empirical Investigation in the Case of Algeria

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Abderrahim Chibi ◽  
Sidi Mohamed Chekouri ◽  
Mohamed Benbouziane
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Economic Recession ◽  
Policy Decision ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Asymmetric Effects ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Impact

Abstract In this paper, we aim to analyze whether the effect of fiscal policy on economic growth in Algeria differs throughout the business cycle. To tackle this question, we use a Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive (MSVAR) framework. We find evidence of asymmetric effects of fiscal policy through regimes, defined by the state of the business cycle (recession and boom). The results show small positive government spending and revenue multipliers in the short term in both regimes. Most importantly, fiscal policy shocks have a stronger impact in times of economic recession than in times of expansion, which confirm the hypothesis of asymmetric effects. However, the impact of government spending is stronger than the impact of public revenue during recession periods. In addition, fiscal policy decision-makers interact with Anti-Keynesian view (pro-cyclical). Our results imply that there is something to gain by using the "right instrument" at the "right time".

Fiscal Policy and Government Spending

2010 ◽  
Vol 214 ◽  
pp. F61-F66 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ray Barrell ◽  
Simon Kirby
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Future Generations ◽  
Coalition Government ◽  
The Third ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Full Capacity ◽  
Government Deficit ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Cost

In June the Coalition Government produced a budget that aimed to reduce the government deficit quickly. The plan was based mainly on cuts in current expenditure and reductions in transfers to individuals. There are four possible reasons for reducing the deficit, and all have been used to justify the policy. The first reason might be that the cost of borrowing is currently too high, and the second could be that if deficits persist the markets could lose confidence and the cost of borrowing would rise. The third reason might be that we have to reduce the debt stock in order that we prepare for the next crisis, whilst the fourth, and perhaps most persuasive in the long run, is that it is unfair to borrow so much and therefore reduce the consumption of future generations. If either of the first two had merit there would be a case for swift consolidation, whilst if the third or fourth predominate, we should not be in any rush to act until output is nearer full capacity.

scholarly journals Exports as a Determinant of Inflation in Kenya: Disaggregated Econommetric Analysis

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (10) ◽  
pp. 417
Author(s):  
Evans Ovamba Kiganda ◽  
Scholastica Adhiambo ◽  
Nelson Obange
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Impulse Response ◽  
Response Analysis ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Impulse Response Analysis ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Relationship

The purpose of this study was to examine exports as a determinant of inflation in Kenya: A disaggregated econometric analysis with specific objectives of establishing the relationship between domestic exports and inflation in Kenya and determining the relationship between re - exports and inflation in Kenya. This was occasioned by inconclusive and incomprehensive analysis on the relationship between exports and inflation given mixed results and failure by scholars to disaggregate total exports into domestic exports and re-exports. Correlation research design was employed using monthly time series obtained from Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) data spanning 132 months from January 2005 to December 2015.Vector Autoregressive (VAR) techniques of cointegration, Granger causality and impulse response analysis were employed. Results indicated a significant positive and negative long run relationship between domestic exports and re- exports with inflation in Kenya respectively that were supported by the impulse response analysis. A unidirectional causality running from domestic exports to inflation and re-exports to inflation was also established. The study concluded that domestic exports and re-exports determine inflation in Kenya with domestic exports having greater influence and therefore recommended that the government of Kenya needs to advocate for a trade policy that aims at reducing exports of domestically produced products and increase re-exports. This will ensure that only surplus is exported to reduce shortage of domestically produced commodities hence a reduction in price for the products.

When is discretionary fiscal policy effective?

2020 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven M. Fazzari ◽  
James Morley ◽  
Irina Panovska
Keyword(s):  
Government Spending ◽  
State Dependence ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Discretionary Fiscal Policy ◽  
State Dependent ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Nonlinear Vector ◽  
Tax Changes ◽  
Deep Recession

AbstractWe investigate the effects of discretionary changes in government spending and taxes using a medium-scale nonlinear vector autoregressive model with policy shocks identified via sign restrictions. Tax cuts and spending increases have larger stimulative effects when there is excess slack in the economy, while they are much less effective, especially in the case of government spending increases, when the economy is close to potential. We find that contractionary shocks have larger effects than expansionary shocks across the business cycle, but this is much more pronounced during deep recessions and sluggish recoveries than in robust expansions. Notably, tax increases are highly contractionary and largely self-defeating in reducing the debt-to-GDP ratio when the economy is in a deep recession. The effectiveness of discretionary government spending, including its state dependence, appears to be almost entirely due to the response of consumption. The responses of both consumption and investment to discretionary tax changes are state dependent, but investment plays the larger quantitative role.

scholarly journals Sustainability of the Brazilian public debt: An analysis using multicointegration

2020 ◽  
Vol 37 (75) ◽  
pp. 5-25
Author(s):  
Eduardo Lima Campos ◽  
Rubens Penha Cysne
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Unit Root Tests ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Brazilian Government ◽  
The Government

According to Bohn (1995), conventional econometric analysis of sustainability, based on unit root tests on the government debt-to-GDP series or cointegration analysis between revenues and expenses, are inconclusive to verify the sustainability of the fiscal policy. This paper uses the multicointegration method to investigatethe validity of a long-term relationship between the Brazilian government`s accumulated revenues and expenses and its debt, all expressed as a proportion of GDP. Leachman et al. (2005) argue that this technique allows concluding about the sustainability or not of fi scal policy. The present work considers specificationsthat allow evaluating the reaction of both accumulated revenues and expenses to changes in the debt-to-GDP, using monthly data from December 1997 to June 2018. We conclude that the Brazilian fiscal policy was unsustainable over the study period, due to the excessive government spending and its growing trajectory, mainly at the end of the sample.

scholarly journals Fiscal Discretion and Its Impact on Pakistan Economy

2012 ◽  
Vol 51 (4II) ◽  
pp. 339-364
Author(s):  
Muhammad Ismail ◽  
Fazal Husain
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Fiscal Management ◽  
Multiplier Effects ◽  
The Government ◽  
Corrective Response

Macroeconomics addresses output, employment and price fluctuations during business cycles. Business cycles which capture variation in economic activity emerge generally due to instable investment, frequent changes in money and credit through banking system and unmanageable haphazard proceedings of wars or political instability. Business cycles inherent features of mixed economic system where households and businesses composed of different motivations spend and produce, differ in their respective economic activities. The occurrence of this difference results in creation of waves in economic activities, which are the business cycles [Spencer and Amos (1993)]. Output variation in moderate context is either a recession or recovery. During recession the economic activity falls which not only reduces employment opportunities but creates gap between potential and actual output of an economy. The federal government tries to keep the adverse effects of business cycle at bay all together. Economists admit that private sector is unable to protect the economy from uncontrolled variations in employment and inflation. In this scenario the government’s fiscal management is corrective response for the problems of recovery and recession. The government makes use of public spending and taxes to minimise the gap of business cycles. This process is called fiscal policy and the deliberate government involvement to stabilise economy is regarded as discretionary fiscal policy. The government can make use either taxes or government spending or both to stabilise economy but in this study we only used government spending due to its larger and positive multiplier effects.

scholarly journals The Effect of Government Expenditures on Economic Growth. the Case of Albania

2014 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 242
Author(s):  
Lorena Çakerri ◽  
Migena Petanaj ◽  
Oltiana Muharremi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
National Income ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Government Expenditures ◽  
Global Crisis ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

One of the main issues of economic policy and government is to ensure a sustainable economic growth of a country.Economic growth has been at the center of every government in place since at least year 2000.Though for this teen-year ,growth values were satisfactory in Albania, the macroeconomic situation changed in 2009,when appeared the elements of the global crisis. Economic global crisis has awakened interest in the case of fiscal policy.Fiscal policy and monetary policy as well, are two basci components of state economic policy which are used for macroeconomic purposes:influence of gross domestic product, the level of enmployment, income and price level. The two main instruments of fiscal policy are government expenditures and taxes. Government expenditures are considered as the most powerful weapon available to fiscal policy makers, especially in developing countries such as Albania. During the last century , governments have spent more and more in relation to their national income. This increase in government spending can be explained by the impact that this variable can have on the economic growth of a country? In fact ,about the connection between the government spending and the economic growth of a country various studies seem full of contradictions.This conflict is explained by changes in terms of definitions and from the differencies of the various countries included in these studies. The objective of this study is to give an appropriate answer to the question : Can government spending have the potential to impact and stimulate economic growth? How the changes of the size of the fiscal policy instruments have affected indicators of economic growth in Albania? This article will focus on the role that the fiscal policy has on economic growth , especially in our country, reviewing economic growth theories, debates about the effectiveness of fiscal policy , and active fiscal policy. Finally some suggestions for the future addressing the government expenditures towards priority sectors.

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