Predicting the project time and costs using EVM based on gray numbers

2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (9) ◽  
pp. 2107-2119 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samira Nadafi ◽  
Seyed Hamed Moosavirad ◽  
Shahram Ariafar
Keyword(s):  
Completion Time ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Value Management ◽  
Earned Value ◽  
Earned Value Management ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Project Completion ◽  
Practical Implications ◽  
Significant Point

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to determine the project completion time and cost under non-deterministic conditions using interval gray numbers (IGNs).Design/methodology/approachThe earned value management (EVM) method based on the IGN has been developed.FindingsThe EVM method based on the IGN has been verified by a numerical example that can be applied to construction projects.Practical implicationsThe EVM method, based on the gray numbers, reduces the budget and time shortage risk. Also, using this method, the managers would not be restricted to provide very exact values in their progress reports in the non-deterministic conditions.Originality/valueOne notable and significant point in all projects during the execution process is to estimate the project completion time and cost. However, non-deterministic conditions for both planned and actual physical completion percentage of projects have not been considered for predicting the project completion time and cost in the literature. Therefore, the novelty of this paper is the prediction of project completion time and cost under non-deterministic conditions using IGN.

scholarly journals Risk factors affecting the ability for earned value management to accurately assess the performance of infrastructure projects in Australia

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 550-569 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maan Nihad Ibrahim ◽  
David Thorpe ◽  
Muhammad Nateque Mahmood
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Project Performance ◽  
Value Management ◽  
Earned Value ◽  
Related Factors ◽  
Earned Value Management ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Factors Influencing

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate a set of risk-related factors influencing the earned value management (EVM) concept as an assessment technique in evaluating the progress of modern sustainable infrastructure construction projects. Design/methodology/approach A qualitative research approach has been adopted for identifying risk-related factors influencing EVM concept from a literature review and through interviewing industry personnel, followed by an inductive process to form sets of key factors and their measuring items. Findings EVM is a common method for assessing project performance. A weakness of this approach is that EVM assessment in its current form does not measure the impact of a number of project performance factors that result from the complexity of modern infrastructure construction projects, and thus does not accurately assess their impact in this performance. This paper discusses and explains a range of potential risk factors to evaluating project performance such as sustainability, stakeholder requirements, communication, procurement strategy, weather, experience of staff, site condition, design issues, financial risk, subcontractor, government requirements and material. In addition, their measuring items were identified. Practical implications This research assists projects managers to improve the evaluation process of infrastructure construction performance by incorporating a range of factors likely to impact on that performance and which are not included in current EVM calculations. Originality/value This research addresses the need to include in the EVM calculation a range of risk factors affecting the performance of infrastructure projects in Australia and therefore makes this calculation a more reliable tool for assessing project performance.

scholarly journals Earned Value Management System in Indonesian Construction Projects

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mandiyo Priyo ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Project Management ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Project Performance ◽  
Performance Estimation ◽  
Building Construction ◽  
Value Management ◽  
Earned Value ◽  
Earned Value Management ◽  
Project Completion ◽  
Critical Elements

Earned Value Management (EVM) is a methodology combining scope, schedule, and resource measurements to assess project performance and progress. It involves integrating the three critical elements of the project covering schedule, work scope, and cost. Various benefits are associated with the use of EVM in project management. This research aims to analyze four units of building construction projects using the EVM method consisting of an analysis of project performance, estimation of cost, and time for project completion, and planning estimation analysis against project completion. The results revealed that from the aspect of time, three buildings were completed ahead of schedule, and another one was behind schedule. In terms of cost, three buildings cost lower than the estimated budget, while one other building was higher.

Method “Earned Value Management” for Timescale Controlling in Construction Projects

2015 ◽  
Vol 725-726 ◽  
pp. 1025-1030 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergei Bovteev ◽  
Marina Petrochenko
Keyword(s):  
Time Management ◽  
Completion Time ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Value Management ◽  
Earned Value ◽  
Earned Value Management ◽  
Independent Estimate ◽  
Management Method

Article presents an assessment of using “Earned Value Management” method for monitoring the construction projects completion on time. It describes the technique of Earned Value Management for Project Time Management. A specific example analyzes the possibility of using indicators Earned Schedule and Independent Estimate of Completion (time) and represents conditions when this indicators do not give correct results.

Bonding capability of Nigerian contracting firms

2018 ◽  
Vol 25 (6) ◽  
pp. 707-720 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ayodeji Emmanuel Oke
Keyword(s):  
Construction Projects ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Insurance Companies ◽  
State Governments ◽  
Legal Capacity ◽  
Years Of Experience ◽  
Past Performance ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Financial Strength ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose The ability of construction contractors to engage in construction bond agreement with guarantors depends on capital, experience, capacity and continuity. Using these criteria, the purpose of this paper is to provide insights into the bonding capacity of Nigerian contractors. Design/methodology/approach Factors required for bonding were examined based on a set of questions addressed to managers of contracting firms and personnel involved in issuing bonds and guarantees in commercial banks and insurance companies. The scorecard approach was employed to determine the bonding capability of the contractors. Findings Contractors’ financial strength and past performance on previous projects are the two important factors considered by guarantors in granting bond to contractors. However, the condition surrounding the bond, the legal capacity of the guarantor to issue bond and the identity of the guarantor are mostly considered by contractors in approaching a potential guarantor. Using the scorecard approach, about one-third of contractors have the necessary requirements to engage in construction bond agreement with guarantors. This ability of contractors is affected by years of experience of the firm but not by their location nor years of experience of their manager. Practical implications It is necessary for contracting firms to increase their capital base through merging, borrowing, etc., and also engage experienced professionals and workers in the execution of construction projects, as this will eventually improve their bonding ability. Social implications The study is limited to construction contractors registered with Ondo and Lagos State Governments and guarantors that are banks and insurance companies in Nigeria. Originality/value The paper specified various areas of concerns for Nigerian contracting firms in their bid to enhance their bonding ability. This will help them in overcoming various challenges and bottlenecks that may arise in securing bonds and guarantees from guarantors.

Collaboration strategy selection in BIM-enabled construction projects: a perspective through typical collaboration profiles

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Guangchong Chen ◽  
Jiayu Chen ◽  
Yuchun Tang ◽  
Yan Ning ◽  
Qiming Li
Keyword(s):  
Construction Projects ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Latent Profile Analysis ◽  
Profile Analysis ◽  
Strategy Selection ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Comprehensive Literature Review ◽  
Collaborative Behavior ◽  
Selection Framework ◽  
Practical Implications

PurposeCollaboration is essential to BIM-enabled construction projects (BECPs). To facilitate collaboration, various strategies have been proposed. Usually, project team adopts single collaboration strategy for convenience. However, BIM-based collaboration is rather dynamic and exposed to a lot of barriers and risks, which easily changes collaboration conditions among partners. Therefore, better understanding of collaboration conditions in BECPs is crucial to develop flexible and suitable strategies. To fill in the gap, this study intends to identify typical collaboration profiles in BECPs and develop a profile-oriented strategy selection framework.Design/methodology/approachThis study establishes a six-dimensional collaborative behavior matric based on a comprehensive literature review to profile collaboration. Then a questionnaire survey is conducted to collect the collaboration data from 162 BECPs in China. Finally, latent profile analysis (LPA) is utilized to identify the typical collaboration profiles in BECPs.FindingsThrough LPA, four profiles are identified, including restricted collaboration profile, smarmy collaboration profile, intuitive collaboration profile, and modest collaboration profile. A profile-oriented strategy selection framework is also established to match strategies with collaboration profiles. Two major categories of strategies are proposed to promote these collaboration profiles including trust building and elevating strategies and collaborative behaviors facilitating strategies.Research limitations/implicationsThese identified profiles can provide an insightful understanding on the diversified collaboration conditions in BECPs.Practical implicationsThe profile-oriented strategy selection framework will help managers develop strategies flexibly to promote collaboration in BECPs.Originality/valueThis study validates four typical collaboration profiles in BECPs. Moreover, a profile-oriented strategy selection framework is also established for collaboration facilitation in BECPs.

Project control and forecast assessment of building projects in Pakistan using earned value management

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hafiz Zahoor ◽  
Rashid Mehmood Khan ◽  
Ahsan Nawaz ◽  
Muhammad Ayaz ◽  
Ahsen Maqsoom
Keyword(s):  
Current Status ◽  
Value Management ◽  
Earned Value ◽  
Earned Value Management ◽  
Building Projects ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Similar Work ◽  
Progress Reporting ◽  
Schedule Performance ◽  
Under Construction

PurposeEarned Value Management (EVM) is widely used as a project performance measurement and forecasting technique. Nonetheless, it has not been fully explored in Pakistani construction industry; where conventional progress reporting methodology (CPRM) is being followed having certain confines. It reports only the financial progress of a project, expresses feeble association between the duration and cost of activities, and forecasts flawed schedule and completion cost. This research implements EVM on under-construction building projects in Pakistan, and compares its upshots with the projects' actual records and with the outcomes of CPRM.Design/methodology/approachTo assess the implementation of EVM on building projects, a set of specific criteria was established. Work Breakdown Structure, Organization Breakdown Structure and Control Points were established. The study has compared the EVM metrics with CPRM outcomes on three under-study building projects, and has deliberated on their mutual differences as well as their relationship with actual cost and schedule performance. Monthly figures of actual spending and completed activities were periodically recorded and compared with planned values for status indication. The graphs were generated to observe the correlation between the results of EVM and CPRM. The data was then extrapolated to forecast the schedule and cost values at completion.FindingsThe study discovered that trends of EVM in quantifying the project's cost and schedule performance were strongly correlated and were closer to the actual progress. It has also verified the EVM's soundness in forecasting the cost and schedule, required for project's completion. Contrarily, CPRM metrics could not precisely visualize the current and future, cost and schedule performance.Originality/valueThe case study concludes that EVM's incorporation in progress reporting regime can revolutionize the assessment procedures in Pakistan by rightly indicating the project's current status as well as visualizing the future performance. The study's methodology can also be extrapolated in other countries having similar work environment and economic conditions.

Quantifying costs of the productivity loss due to schedule changes in construction projects

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jae-Seob Lee
Keyword(s):  
Construction Projects ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Impact Analysis ◽  
Productivity Loss ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cost Impact ◽  
Analysis Technique ◽  
Lost Productivity ◽  
Change Order ◽  
Practical Implications

PurposeThe purpose of the paper is to develop a method to integrate the schedule-based analysis with a productivity-based analysis to prove and support the result of the damages calculation.Design/methodology/approachIn this paper, a “cost and schedule impact integration” (CSI2) model is proposed to objectively show and estimate lost productivity due to changes in construction projects.FindingsA schedule-based analysis to include separate tracking of change order costs can be used to predict productivity due to the delay and disruption; changes in construction projects almost always result in delay and disruption. However, the schedule-based analysis needs to be integrated with a productivity-based analysis to prove and support the result of the damages calculation.Practical implicationsThe results of this study expand upon construction practices for proving and quantifying lost productivity due to changes in construction projects.Originality/valueThe contribution of the paper is summarized as the introduction of a “schedule impact analysis” into a “cost impact analysis” technique to assess the damages, as well as to demonstrate the labor productivity impact due to delay and disruption in construction projects.

Revisiting reliability of estimates at completion for department of defense contracts

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 186-200
Author(s):  
Deborah B. Kim ◽  
Edward D. White ◽  
Jonathan D. Ritschel ◽  
Chad A. Millette
Keyword(s):  
Department Of Defense ◽  
Value Management ◽  
Critical Ratio ◽  
Early Assessment ◽  
Earned Value ◽  
Earned Value Management ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cent Error ◽  
Defense Contracts ◽  
The Cost

Purpose Within earned value management, the cost performance index (CPI) and the critical ratio (CR) are used to generate the estimates at completion (EACs). According to the research in the 1990s, estimating the final contract’s cost at completion (CAC) using EACCR is a quicker predictor of the actual final cost versus using EACCPI. This paper aims to investigate whether this trend stills holds for modern department of defense contracts. Design/methodology/approach Accessing the Cost Assessment Data Enterprise (CADE) database, 451 contracts consisting of 863 contract line item numbers (CLINs) were initially retrieved and analyzed in three stages. The first replicated the work conducted in 1990s. The second stage entailed calculating 95 per cent confidence intervals and hypothesis tests regarding percentage accuracy of EACs for a contract’s final CAC. Lastly, regression analysis was conducted to characterize major, moderate and minor influencers on EAC reliability. Findings For modern contracts, EACCR aligns more with EACCPI and no longer demonstrates early accuracy of a contract’s final CAC. Contract percentage completion strongly reduced the per cent error of estimating CAC, while cost-plus-fixed-fee contracts and those with no work breakdown structure greater than Level 2 negatively affected accuracy. Social implications To militate against optimism of early assessment of a contract's true cost. Originality/value This paper provides empirical evidence that EACCR behaves more like EACCPI with respect to modern contracts, suggesting that today’s contracts have relatively high SPI. Therefore, caution is warranted for program managers when estimating the CAC from contract initiation up to and slightly beyond the mid-point of completion.

ON THE LIMITATIONS OF THE EARNED VALUE MANAGEMENT TECHNIQUE TO ANTICIPATE PROJECT DELAYS

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Pablo Ballesteros-Pérez ◽  
Kamel Mohamed Elamrousy
Keyword(s):  
Significant Proportion ◽  
Control Technique ◽  
Value Management ◽  
Management Technique ◽  
Monitoring And Control ◽  
Earned Value ◽  
Earned Value Management ◽  
Project Completion ◽  
And Control ◽  
Project Delays

A significant proportion of projects across the construction industry fail to meet their planned completion dates, being this a recurrent topic in the project management literature. Multiples causes of project delays have been proposed, however, hardly any attention has been paid to the fact that the most celebrated project monitoring and control technique – the Earned Value Management (EVM) – may not be as fit for purpose as it seems. It is proposed that because EVM ignores activity duration variability it always results in optimistic completion dates which may be very difficult to meet in the real projects. This research offers a fresh and long overdue critique of EVM in its most common implementation (assuming deterministic activity durations and costs), while highlighting its shortcomings. Particularly, Monte Carlo simulations are implemented to exemplify how the merge event bias phenomenon is inadvertently impacting the schedule in both time and cost dimensions. A fictitious case study is used to demonstrate the connection between these shortcomings and what is then conceived as a delay in project completion.

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