Predicting delays in prefabricated projects: SD-BP neural network to define effects of risk disruption

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ying Zhao ◽  
Wei Chen ◽  
Mehrdad Arashpour ◽  
Zhuzhang Yang ◽  
Chengxin Shao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Bp Neural Network ◽  
Input Parameter ◽  
Model System ◽  
Extreme Condition ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Schedule Delay ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Delay Prediction

PurposePrefabricated construction is often hindered by scheduling delays. This paper aims to propose a schedule delay prediction model system, which can provide the key information for controlling the delay effects of risk-related factors on scheduling in prefabricated construction.Design/methodology/approachThis paper combines SD (System Dynamics) and BP (Back Propagation) neural network to predict risk related delays. The SD-based prediction model focuses on dynamically presenting the interrelated impacts of risk events and activities along with workflow. While BP neural network model is proposed to evaluate the delay effect for a single risk event disrupting a single job, which is the necessary input parameter of SD-based model.FindingsThe established model system is validated through a structural test, an extreme condition test, a sensitivity test, and an error test, and shows an excellent performance on aspect of reliability and accuracy. Furthermore, 5 scenarios of case application during 3 different projects located in separate cities prove the prediction model system can be applied in a wide range.Originality/valueThis paper contributes to academic research on combination of SD and BP neural network at the operational level prediction, and a practical prediction tool supporting managers to take decision-making in a timely manner against delays.

Investigation on the ignition delay prediction model of multi-component surrogates based on back propagation (BP) neural network

2022 ◽  
Vol 237 ◽  
pp. 111852
Author(s):  
Yanqing Cui ◽  
Haifeng Liu ◽  
Qianlong Wang ◽  
Zunqing Zheng ◽  
Hu Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Bp Neural Network ◽  
Ignition Delay ◽  
Back Propagation ◽  
Delay Prediction

Fast clustering of male lower body based on GA-BP neural network

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 163-176
Author(s):  
Pengpeng Cheng ◽  
Daoling Chen ◽  
Jianping Wang
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Bp Neural Network ◽  
Body Shape ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Wavelet Coefficient ◽  
The Body ◽  
Lower Body ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Shape Clustering

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to improve the prediction accuracy of the body shape prediction model and provide some reference value for the design of underwear. Design/methodology/approach The body size data of 250 male youths is measured to analyze the body shape of the lower body. And there is a total of 56 measurement items, which are clustered by GA-BP-K-means, K-means, optimal segmentation method for ordered samples, wavelet coefficient analysis, regression analysis and Naive Bayes Algorithm. Finally, a test male sample of an unknown body shape was clustered to verify the superiority of the GA-BP-K-means. Findings This paper presented the key factors for body shape clustering, and experimental results have shown that the GA-BP neural network model is higher in speed and precision than other algorithm prediction models. Originality/value It was clarified which is the key to body shape clustering. At the same time, the GA-BP-K-means algorithm can promote the popularization and application of the prediction model in body shape clustering.

Research on underwear pressure prediction based on improved GA-BP algorithm

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Pengpeng Cheng ◽  
Daoling Chen ◽  
Jianping Wang
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Bp Neural Network ◽  
Subjective Evaluation ◽  
Static State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Neural Network ◽  
Ga Algorithm ◽  
Neural Network Prediction ◽  
Network Prediction

PurposeFor comfort evaluation of underwear pressure, this paper proposes an improved GA algorithm to optimize the weight and threshold of BP neural network, namely PSO-GA-BP neural network prediction model.Design/methodology/approachThe objective parameters of underwear, body shape data, skin deformation and other data are selected for simulation experiments to predict the objective pressure and subjective evaluation in dynamic and static state. Compared with the prediction results of BP neural network prediction model, GA-BP neural network prediction model and PSO-BP neural network prediction model, the performance of each prediction model is verified.FindingsThe results show that the BP neural network model optimized by PSO-GA algorithm can accelerate the convergence speed of the neural network and improve the prediction accuracy of underwear pressure.Originality/valuePSO-GA-BP model provides data support for underwear design, production and processing and has guiding significance for consumers to choose underwear.

Multidimensional research on agrometeorological disasters based on grey BP neural network

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bingjun Li ◽  
Shuhua Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Natural Disaster ◽  
Bp Neural Network ◽  
Henan Province ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
Systematic Analysis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Analysis And Evaluation ◽  
Grain Crops ◽  
Disaster Vulnerability

PurposeThe purpose of this study to provide a reference basis for effectively managing the risk of agrometeorological disasters in Henan Province, speeding up the establishment of a scientific and reasonable system of agrometeorological disasters prevention and reduction and guaranteeing grain security.Design/methodology/approachFirstly, according to the statistical data of areas covered by natural disaster, areas affected by natural disaster, sown area of grain crops and output of grain crops from 1979 to 2018 in Henan Province, China. We have constructed an agrometeorological disaster risk assessment system for Henan province, China, which is composed of indicators such as rate covered by natural disaster, rate affected by natural disaster, disaster coefficient of variation and disaster vulnerability. The variation characteristics of agrometeorological disasters in Henan Province and their effects on agricultural production are analyzed. Secondly, the grey relational analysis method is used to analyze the relation degree between the main agrometeorological disaster factors and the output of grain crops of Henan Province. Based on the grey BP neural network, the rate covered by various natural disaster and the rate affected by various natural disaster are simulated and predicted.FindingsThe results show that: (1) the freeze injury in the study period has a greater contingency, the intensity of the disaster is also greater, followed by floods. Droughts, windstorm and hail are Henan Province normal disasters. (2) According to the degree of disaster vulnerability, the ability to resist agricultural disasters in Henan Province is weak. (3) During the study period, drought and flood are the key agrometeorological disasters affecting the grain output of Henan Province, China.Practical implicationsThe systematic analysis and evaluation of agrometeorological disasters are conducive to the sustainable development of agriculture, and at the same time, it can provide appropriate and effective measures for the assessment and reduction of economic losses and risks.Originality/valueBy calculating and analyzing the rate covered by natural disaster, the rate affected by natural disaster, disaster coefficient of variation and disaster vulnerability of crops in Henan Province of China and using grey BP neural network simulation projections for the rate covered by various natural disaster and the rate affected by various natural disaster, the risk assessment system of agrometeorological disasters in Henan is constructed, which provides a scientific basis for systematic analysis and evaluation of agrometeorological disasters.

Research on Stamping Spring-Back Prediction for Car Body Panel Based on BP Neural Network

2010 ◽  
Vol 97-101 ◽  
pp. 250-254 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xin Jian Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Bp Neural Network ◽  
Front Panel ◽  
Spring Back ◽  
Test Analysis ◽  
Car Body ◽  
Neural Network Prediction ◽  
Mould Design ◽  
Bp Neural Network Model

On the basis of orthogonal test analysis of variance, BP neural network is used to forecast quantitatively the stamping spring-back of front panel of a car body, namely the engine hood, under the conditions of different stamping parameters. Firstly, BP neural network prediction model is established and sample training is done in Matlab. Then, the spring-back prediction using BP neural network and the result of spring-back simulation using Dynaform is compared to verify the precision and stability of the prediction model. Lastly, modification is made to the BP neural network according to practical stamping parameters and an efficient BP neural network model is established. Using this model, stamping spring-back prediction for the front panel of a car body is made. The spring-back prediction could then be used for spring-back compensation in the mould design of the front panel.

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