scholarly journals Is export-led growth hypothesis still valid for sub-Saharan African countries? New evidence from panel data analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas M. Odhiambo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Stage Of Development ◽  
Panel Granger Causality ◽  
Causality Model ◽  
Ssa Countries

PurposeThis study examines the causal relationship between exports and economic growth in sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries during the period 1980 to 2017. The study also examines whether the causality between these two macroeconomic variables depends on the countries' stage of development as proxied by their per capita income.Design/methodology/approachThe study uses a panel cointegration test and panel Granger-causality model to examine the link between exports and growth. The study also incorporates external debt as an intermittent variable in a bivariate setting between exports and economic growth, thereby creating a dynamic multivariate panel Granger-causality model.FindingsAlthough the study found the existence of a long-run relationship between exports and economic growth, the study failed to find any export-led growth response in both low-income and middle-income countries. Instead, the study found evidence of a bidirectional causality and a neutrality response in middle-income and low-income countries, respectively. The study, therefore, concludes that the benefits of an export-led growth hypothesis may have been oversold, and that the strategy may not be desirable to some low-income developing countries.Practical implicationsThese findings have important policy implications as they indicate that the causality between exports and economic growth in SSA countries varies with the countries' stage of development. Consistent with the contemporary literature, the study cautions low-income SSA countries against over-relying on an export-led growth strategy to achieve a sustained growth path as no causality between exports and economic growth has been found to exist in those countries. Instead, such countries should consider pursuing new growth strategies by building the domestic demand side of their economies alongside their export promotion strategies in order to expand the real sector of their economies. For middle-income countries, the study recommends that both export promotion strategies and pro-growth policies should be intensified as economic growth and exports have been found to reinforce each other in those countries.Originality/valueUnlike the previous studies, the current study disaggregated the full sample of SSA countries into two subsets – one comprising of low-income countries and the other consisting of middle-income countries. In addition, the study uses a multivariate Granger-causality model in order to address the emission-of-variable bias. To our knowledge, this may be the first study of its kind in recent years to examine in detail the causal relationship between exports and economic growth in SSA countries using an ECM-based multivariate panel Granger-causality model.

Does foreign direct investment cause economic growth? A dynamic panel data analysis for SADC countries

2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 316-332 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edmore E Mahembe ◽  
Nicholas M Odhiambo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Data Analysis ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Panel Data Analysis ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Fdi Inflows ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Middle Income Countries

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the causal relationship between inward foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth in Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries over the period 1980-2012. It also investigates whether the causal relationship between FDI inflows and economic growth is dependent on the level of income. Design/methodology/approach – In order to assess whether the causal relationship between FDI inflows and economic growth is dependent on the level of income, the study divided the SADC countries into two groups, namely, the middle-income countries and the low-income countries. The study used the recent panel-data analysis methods to examine this linkage. The Granger causality test for the middle-income countries was conducted within a vector-error correction mechanism framework; while that of the low-income countries was conducted within a vector autoregressions framework. Findings – The results for the middle-income countries’ panel show that there is a uni-directional causal flow from GDP to FDI, and not vice versa. However, for the low-income countries’ panel, there was no evidence of causality in either direction. The study concludes that the FDI-led growth hypothesis does not apply to SADC countries. Research limitations/implications – Methodology applied in this study is a bivariate framework which is likely to suffer from the omission of variable bias (Odhiambo, 2008, 2011). Second, the Granger causality analysis employed in this only investigates the direction of causality and whether each variable can be used to explain another, but does not directly test for the mechanisms through which FDI leads to economic growth and economic growth leads to FDI. Practical implications – Future studies may include a third variable such as domestic savings, exports, or financial development in a trivariate or multivariate panel causality model. A more complete analysis which seeks to explain the channels through which FDI impacts growth is suggested for future studies. Lastly, sector level analysis will help policy makers draft effective industrial policies, which can guide allocation of incentives. Social implications – The results of this study support the Growth-led FDI hypothesis, but not the FDI-led growth hypothesis. In other words, it is economic growth that drives FDI inflows into the SADC region and into Southern Africa, and not vice versa. This implies that the recent high economic growth rates that have been recorded in some of the SADC countries, especially the middle-income countries, have led to a massive inflow of FDI into this region. Originality/value – At the regional level, SADC as a regional bloc has been actively pursuing policies and strategies aimed at attracting FDI into the region. Despite the important role of FDI in economic development, and the increase in FDI inflows into SADC countries in particular, there is a significant dearth of literature on the causal relationship between FDI and economic growth. The study used the recent panel-data analysis methods to examine the causal relationship between FDI and economic growth in SADC countries.

scholarly journals Foreign aid on economic growth in Africa: A comparison of low and middle-income countries

2015 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 449-462 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aye Mengistu Alemu ◽  
Jin-Sang Lee
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Aid ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Theoretical Hypothesis

Previous empirical studies on the effects of foreign aid on economic growth have generated mixed results that make it difficult to draw policy recommendations. The main reason for such mixed results is the choice of a single aggregate list of countries, regardless of the disparities in levels of development. This study therefore fills the development gap by disaggregating the African data into a panel of 20 middle- income and 19 low- income African countries over a period of 15 years between 1995 and 2010, and employing a dynamic generalized method of moments (GMM) model to address the dynamic nature of economic growth as well as the problems of endogeneity. The results of this study support the theoretical hypothesis that a positive relationship between aid and GDP growth exists, but only for low-income African countries, not middle-income ones. On the other hand, the study reveals that middle- income African countries tend to experience a greater impact on their economic growth from foreign direct investment (FDI) and natural resources revenues, mainly oil exports. This implies that the frequent criticism that foreign aid has not contributed to economic growth is flawed, at least in the case of low-income African countries. In fact, foreign aid has played a critical role in stimulating economic growth in such countries through supplementing domestic sources of finance such as savings, thus increasing the amount of investment and capital stock in them.

Globalization and Environment: An Asian Experience

2018 ◽  
Vol 09 (03) ◽  
pp. 1850010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sudeshna Ghosh
Keyword(s):  
Granger Causality ◽  
Low Income ◽  
High Income ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Environmental Damage ◽  
Empirical Observation ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Low Middle Income Countries

This paper explores the causal association between globalization and carbon dioxide emanations in a panel set of 17 low- and low-middle-income countries and 12 upper-middle and high-income countries of Asia, respectively. The time series of observations run from 1974 to 2014. The Westerlund (2007) panel cointegration test reveals that there exists a long-run cointegrating relationship in both the panel set of observations between globalization and CO2 emissions. For the panel of upper-middle and high-income countries of Asia the long-run panel (heterogeneous elasticities) shows that globalization does not cause environmental damage, contrary to the observation based on lower- and lower-middle-income countries. The study is in conformity with the Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis. The Granger causality between the variables is explored by utilizing the Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012) Granger Causality tests. The empirical observation shows that globalization-led environmental causality is valid for lower- and lower-middle-income countries of Asia. So proper sustainable green and clean technology must be adopted for the low-income countries to stop the negation of the growth process in the near future.

scholarly journals Immunisation financing and programme performance in the Middle East and North Africa, 2010 to 2017

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. e001248
Author(s):  
Helen Saxenian ◽  
Nahad Sadr-Azodi ◽  
Miloud Kaddar ◽  
Kamel Senouci
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Middle East ◽  
North Africa ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Health Sector ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Life Saving ◽  
Fiscal Space

Immunisation is a cornerstone to primary health care and is an exceptionally good value. The 14 low-income and middle-income countries in the Middle East and North Africa region make up 88% of the region’s population and 92% of its births. Many of these countries have maintained high immunisation coverage even during periods of low or negative economic growth. However, coverage has sharply deteriorated in countries directly impacted by conflict and political unrest. Approximately 1.3 million children were not completely vaccinated in 2017, as measured by third dose of diphtheria–pertussis–tetanus vaccine. Most of the countries have been slow to adopt the newer, more expensive life-saving vaccines mainly because of financial constraints and the socioeconomic context. Apart from the three countries that have had long-standing assistance from Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, most countries have not benefited appreciably from donor and partner activities in supporting their health sector and in achieving their national and subnational immunisation targets. Looking forward, development partners will have an important role in helping reconstruct health systems in conflict-affected countries. They can also help with generating evidence and strategic advocacy for high-priority and cost-effective services, including immunisation. Governments and ministries of health would ensure important benefits to their populations by investing further in their immunisation programmes. Where possible, the health system can create and expand fiscal space from efficiency gains in harmonising vaccine procurement mechanisms and service integration; broader revenue generation from economic growth; and reallocation of government budgets to health, and from within health, to immunization.

The dynamic relationships between the female labour force and the economic growth

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Durmuş Çağrı Yıldırım ◽  
Hilal Akinci
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Participation Rate ◽  
Labour Force Participation ◽  
Female Labour Force Participation ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Female Labour ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Total Labour

PurposeIn this study, the relationship between female labour force participation rate and economic growth is investigated in middle-income countries. The study covers the period of 2001–2016 by employing a dynamic panel approach. Pooled Ordinary Least Square and Fixed Effects model estimations are calculated as a decision criterion to select proper GMM Method. The outcomes indicate that the proper estimation technique, which is a System-GMM model, evidences the U Feminisation Theory for the middle-income countries while controlling all other factors.Design/methodology/approachThe novelty of this study is that the research not only employs both difference and system generalised method of moments (GMM) estimators but also includes main explanatory variables such as education, fertility, and total labour force rate. The study provides an opportunity to review the U-shape nexus between the female labour force and economic growth while controlling education, fertility and total labour participation rate.FindingsThe estimation implies that middle-income countries support a U-shaped relationship. The fertility rate does not impact on the female labour force, and education and total labour force level have a positive influence on women's participation in the labour market.Research limitations/implicationsThis study used data that include the period of 2001–2016 for middle-income countries. So, further studies can use different periods of data or different countries.Practical implicationsThe authors emphasise the importance of economic growth for female labour force for middle-income countries. Thus, a country intending to increase female labour force should also focus on its economic growth. As the study points out, middle-income countries staying under the minimum threshold, $4698.15 (per capita), should priorities their economic improvement policies to reach their female labour force participation goal. Those countries also should be prepared for a female labour force participation declining phase until they reach the turning point income level.Social implicationsFurthermore, education is one of the critical determinants that have an impact on FLFPR. The equal opportunity for both genders to engage in education should be considered as a policy. If females do not have an equal chance to enrolment in education, it may influence the policy of increasing female labour force adversely. Fertility rate appears no more statistically significant in our study. Moreover, today, there are some countries they practise equality between genders by providing equally extended parental leave, which may be a promising policy for gender equality in the labour force and may worth a try.Originality/valueSome previous studies may suffer model mistakes due to lack of consideration the endogeneity problem and bias issue of the results as suggested by Tam (2011). Moreover, previous studies tend to choose either studying U-feminisation as excluding other variables or studying determinants of female labour force participation rate as excluding U-feminisation theory. There is not any panel data study acknowledging both concepts by using recent data to the best knowledge of the authors. Thus, the novelty of this study is that the research not only employs both difference and system generalised method of moments (GMM) estimators but also includes main explanatory variables such as education, fertility, and total labour force rate. The study provides an opportunity to review the U-shape nexus between the female labour force and economic growth while controlling education, fertility and total labour participation rate.

scholarly journals On the determinants of trade openness in low- and lower–middle-income countries in Africa: how important is economic growth?

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dennis Boahene Osei ◽  
Yakubu Awudu Sare ◽  
Muazu Ibrahim
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Special Focus ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Real Gdp Per Capita ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe existing literature highlights the determinants of trade openness with disregard to the income classifications of countries in examining whether the determinants differ given their income levels. This study, therefore, re-examines the drivers of trade openness in Africa relying on panel data with special focus on the role of economic growth. More specifically, we perform a comparative analysis of the factors influencing trade openness for low-income and lower–middle-income countries using the system generalized method of moments. Our findings suggest that, while economic growth robustly enhances openness in low-income countries, in the case of lower–middle-income countries, the impact is not robust and largely negative suggesting that higher growth is associated with less openness. We also find that, economic growth–openness nexus for the lower-income countries exhibits non-linearities and inverted U-shaped relationship in particular. Thus, while increases in real GDP per capita enhance openness, beyond an estimated threshold point, any increases in economic growth dampen openness. We discuss key implications for policy.

scholarly journals Education and economic growth in South Africa: an empirical investigation

2020 ◽  
Vol 48 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
Nicholas M. Odhiambo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Level Of Education ◽  
Causality Model ◽  
Ardl Bounds Testing Approach ◽  
Education And Economic Growth

PurposeThis paper examines the dynamic causal relationship between education and economic growth in South Africa using annual time-series data from 1986 to 2017. The study attempts to answer one critical question: Does education, which is one of the priority sectors in South Africa, drive economic growth?Design/methodology/approachThe study uses the ARDL bounds testing approach and ECM-based Granger causality model to examine this linkage. The study also uses three proxies to measure the level of education. In addition, the study uses two variables: investment and labour, as intermittent variables between the various proxies of education and economic growth, thereby creating a system of multivariate Granger-causality models.FindingsThe study finds that the causal relationship between education and economic growth in South Africa is dependent on the variable used to measure the level of education. In addition, the causality tends to change over time. Overall, the study finds the causal flow from economic growth to education to supersede the causal flow from education to economic growth.Originality/valueUnlike some previous studies, the current study uses three proxies of education in South Africa and two intermittent variables in a multivariate setting. To our knowledge, this may be the first study of its kind to examine in detail the dynamic causal relationship between education and economic growth in South Africa – using the ARDL bounds testing approach and a multivariate Granger causality model.

Achieving SDG target 8.1 (sustain economic growth) in developing countries: how aid for trade policy and regulations can assist?

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Chandan Kumar Roy ◽  
Huang Xiaoling ◽  
Banna Banik
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Trade Policy ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Aid For Trade ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Sustainable Economic Growth

Purpose This study aims to examine how aid for trade policy and regulations (AfTPR) contribute to achieving Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target 8.1 (sustain per capita economic growth) and whether the effectiveness of AfTPR is conditional to the stable political environment. Design/methodology/approach This paper uses a widely accepted endogenous growth framework and applies panel data fixed effects and two-step difference and system generalized method of moments estimation strategies on panel data of 50 developing countries over 2005–2017. Findings The findings of the study confirm that aid to trade policy promotes sustainable economic growth in developing countries, but this category of development assistance is only effective and significant for low and lower middle-income (LLMI) economies. The positive and significant effect of AfTPR in upper middle-income countries is conditional to their level of political stability. Under a stable political situation, the positive effect of AfTPR on sustainable growth remains almost same for the LLMI countries, whereas for the upper middle-income countries this growth effect reached almost double. Research limitations/implications International trade is considered as a driver for inclusive and sustainable economic growth, whereas aid for trade is acknowledged for its prospective contribution toward achieving these goals. The findings have dominant policy implications for the international development organizations and donors, which recommend that it is more desirable to transmit aid toward developing and implementing trade policy and regulations as per capita economic growth improves in the aid recipient countries. Originality/value According to the authors’ knowledge, no prior study empirically analyzes the effect of AfTPRs on SDG target 8.1.

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