Multi-stage group risk decision making with grey numbers based on grey target and prospect theory

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 64-79 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shuli Yan ◽  
Sifeng Liu
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Group Decision ◽  
Expected Utility Theory ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Multi Stage ◽  
Zero Reference ◽  
Grey Number ◽  
Risk Decision

Purpose – With respect to multi-stage group risk decision-making problems in which all the attribute values take the form of grey number, and the weights of stages and decision makers are unknown, the purpose of this paper is to propose a new decision-making method based on grey target and prospect theory. Design/methodology/approach – First, the sequencing and distance between two grey numbers are introduced. Then, a linear operator with the features of the “rewarding good and punishing bad” is presented based on the grey target given by decision maker, and the prospect value function of each attribute based on the zero reference point is defined. Next, weight models of stages and decision makers are suggested, which are based on restriction of stage fluctuation, the maximum differences of alternatives and the maximum entropy theory. Furthermore, the information of alternatives is aggregated by WA operator, the alternatives are selected by their prospect values. Findings – The comprehensive cumulative prospect values are finally aggregated by WA operator, alternatives are selected or not are judged by the sign of the comprehensive prospect theory, if the prospect value of alternative is negative, the corresponding alternative misses the group decision makers’ grey target, on the contrary, if the prospect value of alternative is positive, the corresponding alternative is dropped into the group decision makers’ grey target, the alternative with positive prospect value whose value is the maximum is selected. Originality/value – Compared with the traditional decision-making methods using expected utility theory which suppose the decision makers are all completely rational, the proposed method is based on irrational which is more in line with the decision maker’s psychology. And this method considers the decision maker’s psychological expectation values about every attribute, different satisfactory grey target about attributes will directly affect decision-making result.

Stochastic interval-grey number VIKOR method based on prospect theory

2015 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 105-116 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qingsheng LI ◽  
Ni Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Expected Utility Theory ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Vikor Method ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Multi Attribute Decision Making ◽  
Grey Number ◽  
Index Weight ◽  
Attribute Value

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to deal with interval grey-stochastic multi-attribute decision-making problems. It proposes a VIKOR method based on prospect theory in which probabilities and the attribute value are both grey numbers. Design/methodology/approach – In the prospect theory the results values and probability weight are used while the utility and probability values in the expected utility theory, which the more realistically reflect and describe the decision makers on the optimal process. VIKOR method makes the decision acceptable superiority and decision process stability. At the same time, a new interval grey number entropy is put forward, which is used to calculate the index weight of unknown. Findings – The paper provides a VIKOR method based on prospect theory in which probabilities and the attribute value are both grey numbers. And the validity and feasibility of the method are illustrated by an example. Research limitations/implications – Although VIKOR is much closer to PIS than TOPSIS, at the same time VIKOR method can get the compromise solution with priority, researchers are encouraged to carry on comparative study further. Practical implications – The paper includes interval grey-stochastic multi-attribute decision-making method and implications. The validity and feasibility of the method are illustrated by a case. Originality/value – This paper proposes a VIKOR method based on prospect theory in which probabilities and the attribute value are both interval grey numbers. At the same time, a new interval grey number entropy is put forward, which is used to calculate the index weight of unknown.

Fuzzy multi-attribute group decision making to identify the order of establishing temporary logistics hubs during disaster response

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 2-21 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rajali Maharjan ◽  
Shinya Hanaoka
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Group Decision Making ◽  
Disaster Response ◽  
Group Decision ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Numerical Illustration ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Post Disaster

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to reveal the importance of the order of establishment of temporary logistics hubs (TLHs) when resources (mobile storage units used as TLHs) are limited and to present the development and implementation of a methodology that determines the order of establishment of TLHs to support post-disaster decision making. Design/methodology/approach It employed a decision support system that considers multiple decision makers and subjective attributes, while also addressing the impreciseness inherent in post-disaster decision making for ordering the establishment of TLHs. To do so, an optimization model was combined with a fuzzy multi-attribute group decision making approach. A numerical illustration was performed using data from the April 2015 Nepal Earthquake. Findings The results showed the location and order of establishment of TLHs, and demonstrated the impact of decision makers’ opinions on the overall ordering. Research limitations/implications The study does not discuss the uncertain nature of the location problem and the potential need for relocation of TLHs. Practical implications This methodology offers managerial insights for post-disaster decision making when resources are limited and their effective utilization is vital. The results highlight the importance of considering the opinions of multiple actors/decision makers to enable coordination and avoid complication between the growing numbers of humanitarian responders during disaster response. Originality/value This study introduces the concept of the order of establishment of TLHs and demonstrates its importance when resources are limited. It develops and implements a methodology determining the order of establishment of TLHs to support post-disaster decision making.

Dynamic multi-attribute decision-making method with three-parameter interval grey number based on the prospect theory

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 424-435 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ye Li ◽  
Dongxing Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Value Function ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Time Points ◽  
Decision Method ◽  
Multi Attribute Decision Making ◽  
Parameter Interval ◽  
Grey Number

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to propose a dynamic multi-attribute decision-making method based on the prospect theory for dealing with the dynamic multi-attribute decision-making problem with three-parameter interval grey number. Design/methodology/approach First, the kernel and comparison rule of three-parameter interval grey numbers are defined, which are the basis of collecting and sorting grey numbers. Next, the prospect value function is determined in view of the decision-making information with different time points as the reference points. Then, an optimal model for solving the attribute weight and time weight is constructed based on the grey entropy principle. Findings The paper provides a dynamic grey interrelation decision method based on the prospect theory with three-parameter interval grey number, and the example analysis shows that the method proposed in this paper has validity and rationality. Research limitations/implications If we have a better understanding of the weights of different reference points, it is possible to receive a more reasonable expression for the comprehensive prospect utility value function. Practical implications The paper provides a grey interrelation decision method based on the prospect theory, which can help the decision maker deal with the dynamic multi-attribute decision-making problems under the uncertain environment. Originality/value The paper proposes the kernel and ranking method of three-parameter interval grey number, and uses different time points as the reference points to define the prospect value function. Furthermore, this paper structures a dynamic grey interrelation decision method with three-parameter interval grey number based on the prospect theory.

A multi-stage group decision making for strategic supplier selection based on prospect theory with interval-valued q-rung orthopair fuzzy linguistic sets

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
Shunsheng Guo ◽  
Yuji Gao ◽  
Jun Guo ◽  
Zhijie Yang ◽  
Baigang Du ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Group Decision Making ◽  
Supplier Selection ◽  
Group Decision ◽  
Weighted Averaging ◽  
Multi Stage ◽  
Fuzzy Linguistic ◽  
Interval Valued

With the aggravation of market competition, strategic supplier is becoming more and more critical for the success of manufacturing enterprises. Suppler selection, being the critical and foremost activity must ensure that selected suppliers are capable of supporting the long-term development of organizations. Hence, strategic supplier selection must be restructures considering the long-term relationships and prospects for sustainable cooperation. This paper proposes a novel multi-stage multi-attribute group decision making method under an interval-valued q-rung orthopair fuzzy linguistic set (IVq-ROFLS) environment considering the decision makers’ (DMs) psychological state in the group decision-making process. First, the initial comprehensive fuzzy evaluations of DMs are represented as IVq-ROFLS. Subsequently, two new operators are proposed for aggregating different stages and DMs’ preferences respectively by extending generalized weighted averaging (GWA) to IVq-ROFLS context. Later, a new hamming distance based linear programming method based on entropy measure and score function is introduced to evaluate the unknown criteria weights. Additionally, the Euclidean distance is employed to compute the gain and loss matrix, and objects are prioritized by extending the popular Prospect theory (PT) method to the IVq-ROFLS context. Finally, the practical use of the proposed decision framework is validated by using a strategic supplier selection problem, as well as the effectiveness and applicability of the framework are discussed by using comparative analysis with other methods.

scholarly journals Favoring Consensus and Penalizing Disagreement in Group Decision Making

2008 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 416-421 ◽  
Author(s):  
José Luis García-Lapresta ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Group Decision Making ◽  
Group Decision ◽  
Aggregation Operator ◽  
Weak Order ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Multi Stage ◽  
Linguistic Categories

In this paper we introduce a multi-stage decision making procedure where decision makers' opinions are weighted by their contribution to the agreement after they sort alternatives into a fixed finite scale given by linguistic categories, each one having an associated numerical score. We add scores obtained for each alternative using an aggregation operator. Based on distances among vectors of individual and collective scores, we assign an index to decision makers showing their contributions to the agreement. Opinions of negative contributors are excluded and the process is reinitiated until all decision makers contribute positively to the agreement. To obtain the final collective weak order on the set of alternatives, we weigh the scores that decision makers assign to alternatives by indices corresponding to their contribution to the agreement.

Visualization of preference aggregation based on Weber point in social network group decision-making problem

Kybernetes ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhiqin Yang ◽  
Wuyong Qian ◽  
Jue Wang
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Group Decision Making ◽  
Group Decision ◽  
Weighted Average ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Preference Aggregation ◽  
Group Preference ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Trust Propagation ◽  
Decision Making Problem

PurposeThis study aims to construct a Weber point-based model to complete the visualization of preference aggregation in group decision-making problem, in which decision-makers are associated with trust relationship.Design/methodology/approachThis study mainly comprises four parts: trust propagation, preference aggregation, opinion adjustment and alternative selection. Firstly, the incomplete trust between decision-makers is completed with trust transfer operators and propagation probability in trust propagation process. Secondly, a preference aggregation model based on Weber point is proposed to aggregate the group preference visually. Thirdly, opinions are adjusted to reach a consensus. Finally, the ranking of alternatives is determined by the correlation coefficient with the group preference as a reference.FindingsThe Weber point-based model proposed in this study can minimize the gap in the preference of alternatives between the group and all decision-makers, and realize the visualization of aggregation result. A case of plan selection is introduced to illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed model.Originality/valueBy comparing the result with the weighted average-based preference aggregation method, the Weber point-based model proposed in this study can show the result of preference aggregation intuitively and improve group consensus.

Benchmarking knowledge management practices in small and medium enterprises

2017 ◽  
Vol 24 (5) ◽  
pp. 1215-1233 ◽  
Author(s):  
Santoso Wibowo ◽  
Srimannarayana Grandhi
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Group Decision Making ◽  
Group Decision ◽  
Small And Medium Enterprises ◽  
Evaluation Criteria ◽  
Evaluation Process ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Multicriteria Group Decision Making ◽  
Medium Enterprises

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to formulate the process of measuring and benchmarking the performance of knowledge management (KM) practices as a multicriteria group decision-making problem and present a new multicriteria group decision-making approach for effectively evaluating the performance of KM practices to meet the interests of various stakeholders in small and medium enterprises (SMEs). Design/methodology/approach A new multicriteria group decision-making approach is developed for evaluating the performance of KM practices of individual SMEs. Intuitionistic fuzzy numbers are used for representing the subjective assessments of decision makers in evaluating the relative importance of the evaluation criteria and the performance of individual KM practices with respect to specific evaluation criteria. A fuzzy multicriteria group decision-making algorithm is developed for measuring and benchmarking the performance of alternative KM practices. Findings The proposed multicriteria group decision-making approach is capable of effectively evaluating the performance of KM practices through adequately considering the presence of multiple decision makers, the multi-dimensional nature of the evaluation problem, and appropriately modeling the subjectiveness and imprecision of the evaluation process. The presentation of an example shows that the proposed fuzzy multicriteria group decision-making algorithm is simple to use and efficient in computation. Research limitations/implications The outcome of the multicriteria group decision-making approach is highly dependent on the inputs provided by the decision maker. Practical implications The novelty from this research lies in the utilization of a multicriteria group decision-making approach for evaluating the performance of KM practices in an organization. The outcome from the performance evaluation process allows the enterprise to adopt appropriate KM practices for achieving competitive advantages. Social implications The proposed multicriteria group decision-making approach has a significant social implication as it can be used as a decision-making tool for providing various decision makers in SMEs with useful and strategic information concerning the performance of KM practices in a given situation. Originality/value The originality of this paper lies in the development of the multicriteria group decision-making approach for effectively measuring and benchmarking the performance of KM practices of individual SMEs.

Interval grey numbers based multi-attribute decision making method for supplier selection

Kybernetes ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 43 (7) ◽  
pp. 1064-1078 ◽  
Author(s):  
Naiming Xie ◽  
Jianghui Xin
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Supplier Selection ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Selection Problem ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Numerical Example ◽  
Possibility Degree ◽  
Multi Attribute Decision Making ◽  
Grey Number ◽  
Supplier Selection Problem

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to study a novel grey possibility degree approach, which is combined with multi-attribute decision making (MADM) and applied MADM model for solving supplier selection problem under uncertainty information. Design/methodology/approach – The supplier selection problem is a typical MADM problem, in which information of a series of indexes should be aggregated. However, it is relatively easy for decision makers to define information in uncertainty, sometimes as a grey number, rather than a precise number. By transforming linguistic scale of rating supplier selection attributes into interval grey numbers, a novel grey MADM method is developed. Steps of proposed model were provided, and a novel grey possibility degree approach was proposed. Finally, a numerical example of supplier selection is utilized to demonstrate the proposed approach. Findings – The results show that the proposed approach could solve the uncertainty decision-making problem. A numerical example of supplier selection is utilized to demonstrate the proposed approach. The results show that the proposed method is useful to aggregate decision makers’ information so as to select the potential supplier. Practical implications – The approach constructed in the paper can be used to solving uncertainty decision-making problems that the certain value of the decision information could not collect while the interval value set could be defined. Obviously it can be utilized for other MADM problem. Originality/value – The paper succeeded in redefining interval grey number, constructing a novel interval grey number based MADM approach and providing the solution of the proposed approach. It is very useful to solving system forecasting problem and it contributed undoubtedly to improve grey decision-making models.

scholarly journals Algorithm for Neutrosophic Soft Sets in Stochastic Multi-Criteria Group Decision Making Based on Prospect Theory

Symmetry ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 1085 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dong ◽  
Hou ◽  
Gong
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Comparative Analysis ◽  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Group Decision Making ◽  
Group Decision ◽  
Weighted Average ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Aggregation Rule ◽  
Decision Matrix ◽  
Soft Sets

To address issues involving inconsistencies, this paper proposes a stochastic multi-criteria group decision making algorithm based on neutrosophic soft sets, which includes a pair of asymmetric functions: Truth-membership and false-membership, and an indeterminacy-membership function. For integrating an inherent stochastic, the algorithm expresses the weights of decision makers and parameter subjective weights by neutrosophic numbers instead of determinate values. Additionally, the algorithm is guided by the prospect theory, which incorporates psychological expectations of decision makers into decision making. To construct the prospect decision matrix, this research establishes a conflict degree measure of neutrosophic numbers and improves it to accommodate the stochastic multi-criteria group decision making. Moreover, we introduce the weighted average aggregation rule and weighted geometric aggregation rule of neutrosophic soft sets. Later, this study presents an algorithm for neutrosophic soft sets in the stochastic multi-criteria group decision making based on the prospect theory. Finally, we perform an illustrative example and a comparative analysis to prove the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed algorithm.

Multi-stage and multi-attribute risk group decision-making method based on grey information

2015 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 222-233 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dang Luo ◽  
Yuwen Li
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Maker ◽  
Group Decision Making ◽  
Group Decision ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Attribute Weight ◽  
Multi Stage ◽  
Grey Relational ◽  
Attribute Value

Purpose – For the multi-stage and multi-attribute risk group decision-making problem, the attribute weight, decision-maker weight and time weight are unknown. The attribute value is grey information. The purpose of this paper is to discuss a decision-making method. Design/methodology/approach – Analysis techniques and the theory about distance degree are used to determine the decision-maker weight within single stage. Grey relational analysis method is applied to determine the attribute weight. Moreover, the uncertainty of time weight and the proximity between the attribute value and positive/negative value are taken into account. A multi-objective optimization model is established based on maximum entropy to obtain time weights, so the comprehensive value is determined. Findings – An example shows the effectiveness and practicability. Originality/value – For a decision-making process, the results are different in different periods. This method is computationally very simple, easily comprehensible.

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