Learning by failure vs learning by habits

2017 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 524-546 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lorella Cannavacciuolo ◽  
Luca Iandoli ◽  
Cristina Ponsiglione ◽  
Giuseppe Zollo
Keyword(s):  
Learning Strategies ◽  
Diffusion Of Innovation ◽  
System Level ◽  
Alternative View ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Business Transactions ◽  
Virtual Lab ◽  
Start Up

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explain the emergence of collaboration networks in entrepreneurial clusters as determined by the way entrepreneurs exchange knowledge and learn through business transactions needed to implement temporary supply chains in networks of co-located firms. Design/methodology/approach A socio-computational approach is adopted to model business transactions and supply chain formation in Marshallian industrial districts (IDs). An agent-based model is presented and used as a virtual lab to test the hypotheses between the firms’ behaviour and the emergence of structural properties at the system level. Findings The simulation findings and their validation based on the comparison with a real world cluster show that the topological properties of the emerging network are influenced by the learning strategies and decision-making criteria firms use when choosing partners. With reference to the specific case of Marshallian IDs it is shown that inertial learning based on history and past collaboration represents in the long term a major impediment for the emergence of hubs and of a network topology that is more conducive to innovation and growth. Research limitations/implications The paper offers an alternative view of entrepreneurial learning (EL) as opposed to the dominant view in which learning occurs as a result of exceptional circumstances (e.g. failure). The results presented in this work show that adaptive, situated, and day-by-day learning has a profound impact on the performance of entrepreneurial clusters. These results are encouraging to motivate additional research in areas such as in modelling learning or in the application of the proposed approach to the analysis of other types of entrepreneurial ecosystems, such as start-up networks and makers’ communities. Practical implications Agent-based model can support policymakers in identifying situated factors that can be leveraged to produce changes at the macro-level through the identification of suitable incentives and social networks re-engineering. Originality/value The paper presents a novel perspective on EL and offers evidence that micro-learning strategies adopted and developed in routine business transactions do have an impact on firms’ performances (survival and growth) as well as on systemic performances related to the creation and diffusion of innovation in firms networks.

The effects of reward system on bank credit losses – an agent-based model

2015 ◽  
Vol 41 (9) ◽  
pp. 908-924
Author(s):  
Sara Jonsson
Keyword(s):  
Reward System ◽  
Bank Credit ◽  
Reward Systems ◽  
Risk Modeling ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Credit Risk Management ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Loan Officer ◽  
Credit Losses

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate how the design of loan officer reward systems affects bank credit losses caused by commercial clients. Design/methodology/approach – This paper uses an agent-based model to investigate how the design of reward systems affects bank credit losses. Two different systems are compared: competitive and a cooperative. The model is designed according to the theoretically derived assumption that a cooperative reward system will make agents more likely to share knowledge with each other in the processes of granting and monitoring credit. Findings – The results show that a cooperative reward system have potential to reduce bank credit losses. The reduction of errors in evaluating company’s probability of default thus mitigates variations induced by variations in industry, region, and firm-specific returns. Practical implications – The findings imply that reward system design should be considered in credit risk management. Further, managerial issues (e.g. reward systems) should be considered in risk modeling. Originality/value – The results presented in this paper provide evidence to the value of considering the downside (e.g. loss) when designing reward systems in banks.

Feature intersection for agent-based customer churn prediction

2019 ◽  
Vol 53 (3) ◽  
pp. 318-332
Author(s):  
Sandhya N. ◽  
Philip Samuel ◽  
Mariamma Chacko
Keyword(s):  
Service Providers ◽  
Mobile User ◽  
Telecommunication Service ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Churn Prediction ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
User Behaviour ◽  
Customer Churn ◽  
Customer Churn Prediction

Purpose Telecommunication has a decisive role in the development of technology in the current era. The number of mobile users with multiple SIM cards is increasing every second. Hence, telecommunication is a significant area in which big data technologies are needed. Competition among the telecommunication companies is high due to customer churn. Customer retention in telecom companies is one of the major problems. The paper aims to discuss this issue. Design/methodology/approach The authors recommend an Intersection-Randomized Algorithm (IRA) using MapReduce functions to avoid data duplication in the mobile user call data of telecommunication service providers. The authors use the agent-based model (ABM) to predict the complex mobile user behaviour to prevent customer churn with a particular telecommunication service provider. Findings The agent-based model increases the prediction accuracy due to the dynamic nature of agents. ABM suggests rules based on mobile user variable features using multiple agents. Research limitations/implications The authors have not considered the microscopic behaviour of the customer churn based on complex user behaviour. Practical implications This paper shows the effectiveness of the IRA along with the agent-based model to predict the mobile user churn behaviour. The advantage of this proposed model is as follows: the user churn prediction system is straightforward, cost-effective, flexible and distributed with good business profit. Originality/value This paper shows the customer churn prediction of complex human behaviour in an effective and flexible manner in a distributed environment using Intersection-Randomized MapReduce Algorithm using agent-based model.

scholarly journals An Agent Based Model to Detect Variations in the Transmission of Potters from Baetica Province

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Coto-Sarmiento ◽  
Simon Carrignon
Keyword(s):  
Roman Empire ◽  
Social Learning ◽  
Material Culture ◽  
Learning Strategies ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Scale Production ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Pottery Production ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Modes Of Transmission

The goal of this study is to analyse the transmission of technical skills among potters within the Roman Empire. Specifically, our case study has been focused on the production processes based on Baetica province (currently Andalusia) from 1st to 3rd century AD. Variability of material culture allows observing different production patterns that can explain how social learning evolves. Some differences can be detected in the making techniques processes through time and space that might explain different degrees of specialization. Unfortunately, it is extremely difficult to identify some evidence of social learning strategies in the archaeological record. In Archaeology, this process has been analysed by the study of the production of handmade pottery. In our case, we want to know if the modes of transmission could be similar with a more standardized production as Roman Age. We propose here an Agent-Based Model to compare different cultural processes of learning transmission. Archaeological evidence will be used to design the model. In this model, we implement a simple mechanism of pottery production with different social learning processes under different scenarios. In particular, the aim of this study is to quantify which one of those processes explain better the copying mechanisms among potters revealed in our dataset. We believe that the model presented here can provide a strong baseline for the exploration of transmission processes related to large-scale production.

Reliability analysis for a multi-stack solid oxide fuel cell system subject to operation condition-dependent degradation

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Konrad W. Eichhorn Colombo ◽  
Peter Schütz ◽  
Vladislav V. Kharton
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Data ◽  
Fuel Cell ◽  
Solid Oxide Fuel Cell ◽  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Dynamic Program ◽  
Solid Oxide ◽  
System Level ◽  
Oxide Fuel ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Start Up

PurposeA reliability analysis of a solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) system is presented for applications with strict constant power supply requirements, such as data centers. The purpose is to demonstrate the effect when moving from a module-level to a system-level in terms of reliability, also considering effects during start-up and degradation.Design/methodology/approachIn-house experimental data on a system-level are used to capture the behavior during start-up and normal operation, including drifts of the operation point due to degradation. The system is assumed to allow replacement of stacks during operation, but a minimum number of stacks in operation is needed to avoid complete shutdown. Experimental data are used in conjunction with a physics-based performance model to construct the failure probability function. A dynamic program then solves the optimization problem in terms of time and replacement requirements to minimize the total negative deviation from a given target reliability.FindingsResults show that multi-stack SOFC systems face challenges which are only revealed on a system- and not on a module-level. The main finding is that the reliability of multi-stack SOFC systems is not sufficient to serve as sole power source for critical applications such as data center.Practical implicationsThe principal methodology may be applicable to other modular systems which include multiple critical components (of the same kind). These systems comprise other electrochemical systems such as further fuel cell types.Originality/valueThe novelty of this work is the combination of mathematical modeling to solve a real-world problem, rather than assuming idealized input which lead to more benign system conditions. Furthermore, the necessity to use a mathematical model, which captures sufficient physics of the SOFC system as well as stochasticity elements of its environment, is of critical importance. Some simplifications are, however, necessary because the use of a detailed model directly in the dynamic program would have led to a combinatorial explosion of the numerical solution space.

A Service-Oriented Agent-Based Model for Electronic Procurement

2007 ◽  
pp. 233-264 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manas Ranjan Patra
Keyword(s):  
Efficient Solution ◽  
Business Processes ◽  
Central Theme ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Dynamic Nature ◽  
Organizational Boundaries ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Electronic Procurement ◽  
Business Transactions ◽  
Service Oriented

Globalization has evoked rethinking in organizing the business processes of many enterprises in order to keep pace with the competition and dynamic nature of the market. There has been continuing research for suitable paradigms and technologies that can facilitate efficient and yet less expensive solutions, a feature that is so important for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Towards this end, the chapter presents a service-oriented framework that is based on the notion of Internet-accessible services to represent applications and to integrate business processes. This model propounds a metadata- driven approach to dynamically publish, discover, and select services in heterogeneous settings while engaging in business transactions such as e-procurement across organizational boundaries. The concept of software agents is also employed as a means to automate the activities relating to a procurement cycle. The central theme of this chapter is to motivate the adoption of a service-oriented agent-based framework which can provide an effective and efficient solution to e-procurement.

Gaming the System: An Agent-Based Model of Estimation Strategies and their Effects on System Performance

2018 ◽  
Vol 140 (12) ◽  
Author(s):  
John Meluso ◽  
Jesse Austin-Breneman
Keyword(s):  
Systems Engineering ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
System Level ◽  
Conservation Strategy ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Bias Estimation ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Complex Engineered Systems

Parameter estimates in large-scale complex engineered systems (LaCES) affect system evolution, yet can be difficult and expensive to test. Systems engineering uses analytical methods to reduce uncertainty, but a growing body of work from other disciplines indicates that cognitive heuristics also affect decision-making. Results from interviews with expert aerospace practitioners suggest that engineers bias estimation strategies. Practitioners reaffirmed known system features and posited that engineers may bias estimation methods as a negotiation and resource conservation strategy. Specifically, participants reported that some systems engineers “game the system” by biasing requirements to counteract subsystem estimation biases. An agent-based model (ABM) simulation which recreates these characteristics is presented. Model results suggest that system-level estimate accuracy and uncertainty depend on subsystem behavior and are not significantly affected by systems engineers' “gaming” strategy.

An agent-based model of entrepreneurship

2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 259-270 ◽  
Author(s):  
Graham D. Newell ◽  
Matthew J. Holian
Keyword(s):  
Transaction Costs ◽  
Market Process ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Product Diversity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Entrepreneurial Alertness ◽  
Entrepreneurship Theory ◽  
Insight Into

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to develop an agent-based model that highlights the role of entrepreneurship in the market process. Design/methodology/approach The authors explore the effect of entrepreneurial alertness and transaction costs on two normative standards: the speed of price equilibration and the level of product diversity. Findings Both higher alertness and lower transaction costs lead to faster equilibration, as expected. High alertness contributes to high product diversity, also as expected. However, and counter-intuitively, lower transaction costs actually leads to lower levels of product diversity, as markets equilibrate before entrepreneurs can discover many new products. Originality/value The analysis provides new insight into entrepreneurship theory and policy.

How the Mechanism of Dynamic Representation Affects Policy Change and Stability

2016 ◽  
Vol 38 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon Tobias Franzmann ◽  
Johannes Schmitt
Keyword(s):  
Policy Change ◽  
Party System ◽  
Party Competition ◽  
System Level ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Additional Mechanism ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Veto Player ◽  
Dynamic Representation ◽  
Veto Points

AbstractIn politics, we often observe stasis when, at first sight, no reason exists for such policy blockades. In contrast., we sometimes see policy change when one would expect blockades resulting from veto points or countervailing majorities. How can we explain these contradictory results concerning policy stability? In order to solve this theoretical puzzle, we develop an agent-based model (ABM). We combine established models of veto player theory (Tsebelis 2002: Ganghof-Bräuninger 2006) with the findings of political sociology and party competition. By aggregating previous party-level findings, we show that dynamic representation (Stimson et. al. 1995) provides an additional mechanism that can explain these macro-level outcomes. Parties behaving responsively to their electorate do not automatically guarantee perfect responsivity on the party system level. Further, if opposition parties also fear punishment by the electorate for government inaction, the opposition behaves more accommodatingly than previous approaches have predicted.

scholarly journals DIFFUSION OF INNOVATION WITHIN AN AGENT-BASED MODEL: SPINSONS, INDEPENDENCE AND ADVERTISING

2014 ◽  
Vol 17 (01) ◽  
pp. 1450004 ◽  
Author(s):  
PIOTR PRZYBYŁA ◽  
KATARZYNA SZNAJD-WERON ◽  
RAFAŁ WERON
Keyword(s):  
Diffusion Of Innovation ◽  
Diffusion Models ◽  
Agent Based Modeling ◽  
Voter Model ◽  
Bass Model ◽  
Two Dimensional ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Modeling Approach ◽  
New Ideas

In this paper, we modify a two-dimensional variant of a two-state nonlinear voter model and apply it to understand how new ideas, products or behaviors spread throughout the society in time. In particular, we want to find answers to two important questions in the field of diffusion of innovation: Why does the diffusion of innovation take sometimes so long? and Why does it fail so often? Because these kind of questions cannot be answered within classical aggregate diffusion models, like the Bass model, we use an agent-based modeling approach.

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