Risk-return tradeoff in Chinese stock markets: some recent evidence

2015 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 448-473 ◽  
Author(s):  
Menggen Chen
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Risk Return ◽  
Emerging Stock Markets ◽  
Chinese Stock Markets ◽  
Over Time

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to pay more attention to four different research questions at least. One is that this study intends to explore the changes of the risk-return relationship over time, because the institutions and environment have changed a lot and might tend to influence the risk-return regime in the Chinese stock markets. The second question is whether there is any difference for the risk-return relationship between Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets. The third question is to compare the similarities and dissimilarities of the risk-return tradeoff for different frequency data. The fourth question is to compare the explanation power of different GARCH-M type models which are all widely used in exploring the risk-return tradeoff. Design/methodology/approach – This paper investigates the risk-return tradeoff in the Chinese emerging stock markets with a sample including daily, weekly and monthly market return series. A group of variant specifications of GARCH-M type models are used to test the risk-return tradeoff. Additionally, some diagnostic checks proposed by Engle and Ng (1993) are used in this paper, and this will help to assess the robustness of different models. Findings – The empirical results show that the dynamic risk-return relationship is quite different between Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets. A positive and statistically significant risk-return relationship is found for the daily returns in Shenzhen Stock Exchange, while the conditional mean of the stock returns is negatively related to the conditional variance in Shanghai Stock Exchange. The risk-return relationship usually becomes much weaker for the lower frequency returns in both markets. A further study with the sub-samples finds a positive and significant risk-return trade-off for both markets in the second stage after July 1, 1999. Originality/value – This paper extends the existing related researches about the Chinese stock markets in several ways. First, this study uses a longer sample to investigate the relationship between stock returns and volatility. Second, this study estimates the returns and volatility relationship with different frequency sample data together. Third, a group of variant specifications of GARCH-M type models are used to test the risk-return tradeoff. In particular, the author employs the Component GARCH-M model which is relatively new in this line of research. Fourth, this study investigates if there is any structural break affecting the risk-return relationship in the Chinese stock markets over time.

Risk, uncertainty and stock returns predictability – a case of emerging equity markets

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 438-455
Author(s):  
Rakesh Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Equity Markets ◽  
Growth Period ◽  
Risk And Uncertainty ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Equity Markets ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the predictability of stock returns under risk and uncertainty of a set of 11 emerging equity markets (EEMs) during the pre- and post-crash periods. Design/methodology/approach Listed indices are considered to serve the proxy of stock markets with a structural break in data for the period: 2000-2014. As preliminary results highlight the significant autocorrelations in stock returns, Threshold-GARCH (1,1) model is used to estimate the conditional volatility, which is further decomposed into expected and unexpected volatility. Findings Results highlight that the volatility has symmetric impact on stock returns during the pre-crash period and asymmetric impact during the post-crash period. While testing the relationship of stock returns, a significant positive (negative) relationship is found with expected volatility during the pre-crash (post-crash) periods. The stock returns are found positively related to unexpected volatility. Research limitations/implications Business, political and other market conditions of sample stock markets are fundamentally different. These economies were liberalized in different years, which may affect the degree of integration with international equity markets. Practical implications The findings highlight that investors consider the impact of expected volatility in forecasting of stock returns during the growth period. They realize returns in commensurate to risk of their portfolios. However, they significantly reduce their investments in response to expected volatility during the recession period. The positive relationship between stock returns and unexpected volatility highlights the fact that investors realize extra returns for exposing their portfolios to unexpected volatility. Originality/value Pioneer efforts are made by using T-GARCH (1,1) procedure to analyse the problem. Given the emergence of emerging equity markets, new insight in dynamics of stock returns provide interesting findings for portfolio diversification under risk and uncertainty.

scholarly journals Impact of gold and oil prices on the stock market in Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 25 (50) ◽  
pp. 279-294
Author(s):  
Aiza Shabbir ◽  
Shazia Kousar ◽  
Syeda Azra Batool
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Current Data ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of the study is to find out the impact of gold and oil prices on the stock market. Design/methodology/approach This study uses the data on gold prices, stock exchange and oil prices for the period 1991–2016. This study applied descriptive statistics, augmented Dickey–Fuller test, correlation and autoregressive distributed lag test. Findings The data analysis results showed that gold and oil prices have a significant impact on the stock market. Research limitations/implications Following empirical evidence of this study, the authors recommend that investors should invest in gold because the main reason is that hike in inflation reduces the real value of money, and people seek to invest in alternative investment avenues like gold to preserve the value of their assets and earn additional returns. This suggests that investment in gold can be used as a tool to decline inflation pressure to a sustainable level. This study was restricted to use small sample data owing to the availability of data from 1991 to 2017 and could not use structural break unit root tests with two structural break and structural break cointegration approach, as these tests require high-frequency data set. Originality/value This study provides information to the investors who want to get the benefit of diversification by investing in gold, oil and stock market. In the current era, gold prices and oil prices are fluctuating day by day, and investors think that stock returns may or may not be affected by these fluctuations. This study is unique because it focusses on current issues and takes the current data in this research to help investment institutions or portfolio managers.

Decomposition of stock market trade-offs using Shewhart methodology

2016 ◽  
Vol 33 (9) ◽  
pp. 1311-1331 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nadeeka Premarathna ◽  
A. Jonathan R. Godfrey ◽  
K. Govindaraju
Keyword(s):  
Quality Management ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Risk Return ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Market Behaviour

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the applicability of Shewhart methodology and other quality management principles to gain a deeper understanding of the observed volatility in stock returns and its impact on market performance. Design/methodology/approach The validity of quality management philosophy in the context of financial market behaviour is discussed. The technique of rational subgrouping is used to identify the observable variations in stock returns as either common or special cause variation. The usefulness of the proposed methodology is investigated through empirical data. The risk/return and skewness/kurtosis trade-offs of S&P 500 stocks are examined. The consistency of this approach is reviewed by relating the separated variability to “efficient market” and “behavioural finance” theories. Findings Significant positive and negative risk/return trade-offs were found after partitioning the returns series into common and special cause periods, respectively, while total data did not exhibit a significant risk/return trade-off at all. A highly negative skewness/kurtosis trade-off was found in total and special cause periods as compared to the common cause periods. These results are broadly consistent with the theoretical concepts of finance and other empirical findings. Practical implications The quality management principles-based approach to analysing financial data avoids the complexities commonly found in stochastic-volatility forecasting models. Social implications The results provide new insights into the impact of volatility in stock returns. They should have direct implications for financial market participants. Originality/value The authors explore the relevance of Shewhart methodology in analysing variability in stock returns through reviewing financial market behaviour.

Good and bad high-frequency volatility spillovers among developed and emerging stock markets

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Walid Mensi ◽  
Ramzi Nekhili ◽  
Xuan Vinh Vo ◽  
Sang Hoon Kang
Keyword(s):  
Stock Markets ◽  
High Frequency ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Asymmetric Volatility ◽  
Volatility Spillovers ◽  
Emerging Stock Markets ◽  
Contagion Effects ◽  
Exchange Markets

PurposeThis paper examines dynamic return spillovers and connectedness networks among international stock exchange markets. The authors account for asymmetry by distinguishing between positive and negative returns.Design/methodology/approachThis paper employs the spillover index of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) to measure the volatility spillover index for total, positive and negative volatility.FindingsThe results show time-varying and asymmetric volatility spillovers among the stock markets under investigation. During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, bad volatility spillovers are more pronounced and dominated over good volatility spillovers, indicating contagion effects.Originality/valueThe presence of confirmed COVID-19 cases positively (negatively) affects the good and bad spillovers under low and intermediate (upper) quantiles. Both types of spillovers at various quantiles agree also influenced by the number of COVID-19 deaths.

Layoffs and stock market performance during the COVID-19 pandemic: evidence from the US

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Christos Floros ◽  
Maria Psillaki ◽  
Efstathios Karpouzis
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Trading Volume ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Stock Market Performance ◽  
Event Date

PurposeThe authors examine the short-term stock market reaction surrounding US layoffs during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) period. The authors’ specific interest is on any changes that may be observed in US stock markets during the COVID-19 outbreak. This information will help us assess the extent to which policymakers adopted at time revenue and expenditures measures to minimize its negative impact.Design/methodology/approachThe authors study the linkage between layoffs announced by firms and stock markets in US for the COVID-19 period between March 2020 and October 2020. This period shows important economic figures; a huge number of job cuts announced by blue-chip companies listed in the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) due to widespread economic shutdowns. The authors examine whether and to what extent stock markets in US have reacted to layoff announcements during the COVID-19 pandemic using an event-study methodology.FindingsThe study’s results show that US layoffs during the pandemic did not cause any abnormalities on the stock returns, either positive or negative. Based on the mean-adjusted volume, the authors find that layoffs increase the stocks' trading volume, especially on the event date and the day following the event. US stocks become more volatile on the days following the event. Interestingly, on the event date, the authors find that stocks get the highest abnormal volatility; however, the result is statistically insignificant.Practical implicationsThe authors suggest that layoffs announcements follow the business cycle quite closely in most industries. The study’s results have implications for investors, regulators and policymakers as they permit to examine the effectiveness of the measures adopted.Social implicationsThe study’s results show that policymakers reduced uncertainty implementing intensive measures quickly and should follow similar policy in the future pandemic and/or unexpected events.Originality/valueThis paper contributes to the literature in two directions: First, to the best of the authors’ knowledge this is the first study that provides empirical evidence and assesses the extent to which a major global shock such as the COVID-19 pandemic may have altered the reaction of US stock markets to layoff announcements. Second, this is the first study on this topic that examines volume and volatility abnormalities, while the authors check the robustness of the findings with different methods to calculate abnormal returns.

Absence of the weekend effect and industry-style portfolios

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 463-475
Author(s):  
Selma Izadi ◽  
Abdullah Noman
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Weekend Effect ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Portfolio ◽  
The Us ◽  
Using Data

Purpose The existence of the weekend effect has been reported from the 1950s to 1970s in the US stock markets. Recently, Robins and Smith (2016, Critical Finance Review, 5: 417-424) have argued that the weekend effect has disappeared after 1975. Using data on the market portfolio, they document existence of structural break before 1975 and absence of any weekend effects after that date. The purpose of this study is to contribute some new empirical evidences on the weekend effect for the industry-style portfolios in the US stock market using data over 90 years. Design/methodology/approach The authors re-examine persistence or reversal of the weekend effect in the industry portfolios consisting of The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), The American Stock Exchange (AMEX) and The National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations exchange (NASDAQ) stocks using daily returns from 1926 to 2017. Our results confirm varying dates for structural breaks across industrial portfolios. Findings As for the existence of weekend effects, the authors get mixed results for different portfolios. However, the overall findings provide broad support for the absence of weekend effects in most of the industrial portfolios as reported in Robins and Smith (2016). In addition, structural breaks for other weekdays and days of the week effects for other days have also been documented in the paper. Originality/value As far as the authors are aware, this paper is the first research that analyzes weekend effect for the industry-style portfolios in the US stock market using data over 90 years.

The performance of the Broad Based Black Economic Empowerment compliant listed property firms in South Africa

2016 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-26 ◽  
Author(s):  
Omokolade Akinsomi ◽  
Katlego Kola ◽  
Thembelihle Ndlovu ◽  
Millicent Motloung
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Factor Model ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Sharpe Ratio ◽  
Economic Empowerment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Black Economic ◽  
Black Economic Empowerment ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of Broad-Based Black Economic Empowerment (BBBEE) on the risk and returns of listed and delisted property firms on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). The study was investigated to understand the impact of Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) property sector charter and effect of government intervention on property listed markets. Design/methodology/approach – The study examines the performance trends of the listed and delisted property firms on the JSE from January 2006 to January 2012. The data were obtained from McGregor BFA database to compute the risk and return measures of the listed and delisted property firms. The study employs a capital asset pricing model (CAPM) to derive the alpha (outperformance) and beta (risk) to examine the trend amongst the BEE and non-BEE firms, Sharpe ratio was also employed as a measurement of performance. A comparative study is employed to analyse the risks and returns between listed property firms that are BEE compliant and BEE non-compliant. Findings – Results show that there exists differences in returns and risk between BEE-compliant firms and non-BEE-compliant firms. The study shows that BEE-compliant firms have higher returns than non-BEE firms and are less risky than non-BEE firms. By establishing this relationship, this possibly affects the investor’s decision to invest in BEE firms rather than non-BBBEE firms. This study can also assist the government in strategically adjusting the policy. Research limitations/implications – This study employs a CAPM which is a single-factor model. Further study could employ a multi-factor model. Practical implications – The results of this investigation, with the effects of BEE on returns, using annualized returns, the Sharpe ratio and alpha (outperformance), results show that BEE firms perform better than non-BEE firms. These results pose several implications for investors particularly when structuring their portfolios, further study would need to examine the role of BEE on stock returns in line with other factors that affect stock returns. The results in this study have several implications for government agencies, there may be the need to monitor the effect of the BEE policies on firm returns and re-calibrate policies accordingly. Originality/value – This study investigates the performance of listed property firms on the JSE which are BEE compliant. This is the first study to investigate listed property firms which are BEE compliant.

Epidemics and Chinese firms' stock returns: is COVID-19 different?

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Quang Thi Thieu Nguyen ◽  
Dao Le Trang Anh ◽  
Christopher Gan
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Market Performance ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Stock Exchanges ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Event Study Method ◽  
Economic Shock ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis study investigates the Chinese stocks' returns during different epidemic periods to assess their effects on firms' market performance.Design/methodology/approachThe study employs an event study method on more than 3,000 firms listed on Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges during periods of SARS, H5N1, H7N9 and COVID-19FindingsEpidemics' effect on firms' stock returns is persistent up to 10 days after the event dates. Although the impact varies with types and development of the disease, most firms experience a negative impact of the epidemics. Among the epidemics, COVID-19 has the greatest impact, especially when it grows into a pandemic. The epidemics' impact is uneven across industries. In addition, B-shares and stocks listed on Shanghai Stock Exchange are more negatively influenced by the epidemic than A-shares and those listed on Shenzhen Stock Exchange.Research limitations/implicationsThe results of the study contribute to the limited literature on the effects of disease outbreaks as an economic shock on firm market performance. Given the possibility of other epidemics in the future, the study provides guidance for investors in designing an appropriate investing strategy to cope with the epidemic shocks to the market.Originality/valueThe research is novel in the way it compares and assesses the economic impact of different epidemics on firms and considers their impact at different development stages.

Conditional stock liquidity premium: is Warsaw stock exchange different?

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Szymon Stereńczak
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Market Liquidity ◽  
Investment Horizon ◽  
Liquidity Premium ◽  
Stock Liquidity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bear Market

Purpose This paper aims to empirically indicate the factors influencing stock liquidity premium (i.e. the relationship between liquidity and stock returns) in one of the leading European emerging markets, namely, the Polish one. Design/methodology/approach Various firms’ characteristics and market states are analysed as potentially affecting liquidity premiums in the Polish stock market. Stock returns are regressed on liquidity measures and panel models are used. Liquidity premium has been estimated in various subsamples. Findings The findings vividly contradict the common sense that liquidity premium raises during the periods of stress. Liquidity premium does not increase during bear markets, as investors lengthen the investment horizon when market liquidity decreases. Liquidity premium varies with the firm’s size, book-to-market value and stock risk, but these patterns seem to vanish during a bear market. Originality/value This is one of the first empirical papers considering conditional stock liquidity premium in an emerging market. Using a unique methodological design it is presented that liquidity premium in emerging markets behaves differently than in developed markets.

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