scholarly journals Impact of gold and oil prices on the stock market in Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 25 (50) ◽  
pp. 279-294
Author(s):  
Aiza Shabbir ◽  
Shazia Kousar ◽  
Syeda Azra Batool
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Current Data ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of the study is to find out the impact of gold and oil prices on the stock market. Design/methodology/approach This study uses the data on gold prices, stock exchange and oil prices for the period 1991–2016. This study applied descriptive statistics, augmented Dickey–Fuller test, correlation and autoregressive distributed lag test. Findings The data analysis results showed that gold and oil prices have a significant impact on the stock market. Research limitations/implications Following empirical evidence of this study, the authors recommend that investors should invest in gold because the main reason is that hike in inflation reduces the real value of money, and people seek to invest in alternative investment avenues like gold to preserve the value of their assets and earn additional returns. This suggests that investment in gold can be used as a tool to decline inflation pressure to a sustainable level. This study was restricted to use small sample data owing to the availability of data from 1991 to 2017 and could not use structural break unit root tests with two structural break and structural break cointegration approach, as these tests require high-frequency data set. Originality/value This study provides information to the investors who want to get the benefit of diversification by investing in gold, oil and stock market. In the current era, gold prices and oil prices are fluctuating day by day, and investors think that stock returns may or may not be affected by these fluctuations. This study is unique because it focusses on current issues and takes the current data in this research to help investment institutions or portfolio managers.

Do Indian stock market sentiments impact contemporaneous returns?

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 332-346
Author(s):  
Divya Aggarwal ◽  
Pitabas Mohanty
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Sentiments ◽  
Indian Stock Market ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyse the impact of Indian investor sentiments on contemporaneous stock returns of Bombay Stock Exchange, National Stock Exchange and various sectoral indices in India by developing a sentiment index. Design/methodology/approach The study uses principal component analysis to develop a sentiment index as a proxy for Indian stock market sentiments over a time frame from April 1996 to January 2017. It uses an exploratory approach to identify relevant proxies in building a sentiment index using indirect market measures and macro variables of Indian and US markets. Findings The study finds that there is a significant positive correlation between the sentiment index and stock index returns. Sectors which are more dependent on institutional fund flows show a significant impact of the change in sentiments on their respective sectoral indices. Research limitations/implications The study has used data at a monthly frequency. Analysing higher frequency data can explain short-term temporal dynamics between sentiments and returns better. Further studies can be done to explore whether sentiments can be used to predict stock returns. Practical implications The results imply that one can develop profitable trading strategies by investing in sectors like metals and capital goods, which are more susceptible to generate positive returns when the sentiment index is high. Originality/value The study supplements the existing literature on the impact of investor sentiments on contemporaneous stock returns in the context of a developing market. It identifies relevant proxies of investor sentiments for the Indian stock market.

scholarly journals The time-varying effects of oil prices on oil–gas stock returns of the fragile five countries

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Begüm Yurteri Kösedağlı ◽  
Gül Huyugüzel Kışla ◽  
A. Nazif Çatık
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Asset Pricing Model ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Structural Break Test ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Oil Gas

AbstractThis study analyzes oil price exposure of the oil–gas sector stock returns for the fragile five countries based on a multi-factor asset pricing model using daily data from 29 May 1996 to 27 January 2020. The endogenous structural break test suggests the presence of serious parameter instabilities due to fluctuations in the oil and stock markets over the period under study. Moreover, the time-varying estimates indicate that the oil–gas sectors of these countries are riskier than the overall stock market. The results further suggest that, except for Indonesia, oil prices have a positive impact on the sectoral returns of all markets, whereas the impact of the exchange rates on the oil–gas sector returns varies across time and countries.

Absence of the weekend effect and industry-style portfolios

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 463-475
Author(s):  
Selma Izadi ◽  
Abdullah Noman
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Weekend Effect ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Portfolio ◽  
The Us ◽  
Using Data

Purpose The existence of the weekend effect has been reported from the 1950s to 1970s in the US stock markets. Recently, Robins and Smith (2016, Critical Finance Review, 5: 417-424) have argued that the weekend effect has disappeared after 1975. Using data on the market portfolio, they document existence of structural break before 1975 and absence of any weekend effects after that date. The purpose of this study is to contribute some new empirical evidences on the weekend effect for the industry-style portfolios in the US stock market using data over 90 years. Design/methodology/approach The authors re-examine persistence or reversal of the weekend effect in the industry portfolios consisting of The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), The American Stock Exchange (AMEX) and The National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations exchange (NASDAQ) stocks using daily returns from 1926 to 2017. Our results confirm varying dates for structural breaks across industrial portfolios. Findings As for the existence of weekend effects, the authors get mixed results for different portfolios. However, the overall findings provide broad support for the absence of weekend effects in most of the industrial portfolios as reported in Robins and Smith (2016). In addition, structural breaks for other weekdays and days of the week effects for other days have also been documented in the paper. Originality/value As far as the authors are aware, this paper is the first research that analyzes weekend effect for the industry-style portfolios in the US stock market using data over 90 years.

The performance of the Broad Based Black Economic Empowerment compliant listed property firms in South Africa

2016 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-26 ◽  
Author(s):  
Omokolade Akinsomi ◽  
Katlego Kola ◽  
Thembelihle Ndlovu ◽  
Millicent Motloung
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Factor Model ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Sharpe Ratio ◽  
Economic Empowerment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Black Economic ◽  
Black Economic Empowerment ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of Broad-Based Black Economic Empowerment (BBBEE) on the risk and returns of listed and delisted property firms on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). The study was investigated to understand the impact of Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) property sector charter and effect of government intervention on property listed markets. Design/methodology/approach – The study examines the performance trends of the listed and delisted property firms on the JSE from January 2006 to January 2012. The data were obtained from McGregor BFA database to compute the risk and return measures of the listed and delisted property firms. The study employs a capital asset pricing model (CAPM) to derive the alpha (outperformance) and beta (risk) to examine the trend amongst the BEE and non-BEE firms, Sharpe ratio was also employed as a measurement of performance. A comparative study is employed to analyse the risks and returns between listed property firms that are BEE compliant and BEE non-compliant. Findings – Results show that there exists differences in returns and risk between BEE-compliant firms and non-BEE-compliant firms. The study shows that BEE-compliant firms have higher returns than non-BEE firms and are less risky than non-BEE firms. By establishing this relationship, this possibly affects the investor’s decision to invest in BEE firms rather than non-BBBEE firms. This study can also assist the government in strategically adjusting the policy. Research limitations/implications – This study employs a CAPM which is a single-factor model. Further study could employ a multi-factor model. Practical implications – The results of this investigation, with the effects of BEE on returns, using annualized returns, the Sharpe ratio and alpha (outperformance), results show that BEE firms perform better than non-BEE firms. These results pose several implications for investors particularly when structuring their portfolios, further study would need to examine the role of BEE on stock returns in line with other factors that affect stock returns. The results in this study have several implications for government agencies, there may be the need to monitor the effect of the BEE policies on firm returns and re-calibrate policies accordingly. Originality/value – This study investigates the performance of listed property firms on the JSE which are BEE compliant. This is the first study to investigate listed property firms which are BEE compliant.

Epidemics and Chinese firms' stock returns: is COVID-19 different?

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Quang Thi Thieu Nguyen ◽  
Dao Le Trang Anh ◽  
Christopher Gan
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Market Performance ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Stock Exchanges ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Event Study Method ◽  
Economic Shock ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis study investigates the Chinese stocks' returns during different epidemic periods to assess their effects on firms' market performance.Design/methodology/approachThe study employs an event study method on more than 3,000 firms listed on Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges during periods of SARS, H5N1, H7N9 and COVID-19FindingsEpidemics' effect on firms' stock returns is persistent up to 10 days after the event dates. Although the impact varies with types and development of the disease, most firms experience a negative impact of the epidemics. Among the epidemics, COVID-19 has the greatest impact, especially when it grows into a pandemic. The epidemics' impact is uneven across industries. In addition, B-shares and stocks listed on Shanghai Stock Exchange are more negatively influenced by the epidemic than A-shares and those listed on Shenzhen Stock Exchange.Research limitations/implicationsThe results of the study contribute to the limited literature on the effects of disease outbreaks as an economic shock on firm market performance. Given the possibility of other epidemics in the future, the study provides guidance for investors in designing an appropriate investing strategy to cope with the epidemic shocks to the market.Originality/valueThe research is novel in the way it compares and assesses the economic impact of different epidemics on firms and considers their impact at different development stages.

A quantile regression approach to evaluate the relative impact of global and local factors on the MENA stock markets

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Slah Bahloul ◽  
Nawel Ben Amor
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Quantile Regression ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Financial Integration ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis paper investigates the relative importance of local macroeconomic and global factors in the explanation of twelve MENA (Middle East and North Africa) stock market returns across the different quantiles in order to determine their degree of international financial integration.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use both ordinary least squares and quantile regressions from January 2007 to January 2018. Quantile regression permits to know how the effects of explanatory variables vary across the different states of the market.FindingsThe results of this paper indicate that the impact of local macroeconomic and global factors differs across the quantiles and markets. Generally, there are wide ranges in degree of international integration and most of MENA stock markets appear to be weakly integrated. This reveals that the portfolio diversification within the stock markets in this region is still beneficial.Originality/valueThis paper is original for two reasons. First, it emphasizes, over a fairly long period, the impact of a large number of macroeconomic and global variables on the MENA stock market returns. Second, it examines if the relative effects of these factors on MENA stock returns vary or not across the market states and MENA countries.

Risk, uncertainty and stock returns predictability – a case of emerging equity markets

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 438-455
Author(s):  
Rakesh Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Equity Markets ◽  
Growth Period ◽  
Risk And Uncertainty ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Equity Markets ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the predictability of stock returns under risk and uncertainty of a set of 11 emerging equity markets (EEMs) during the pre- and post-crash periods. Design/methodology/approach Listed indices are considered to serve the proxy of stock markets with a structural break in data for the period: 2000-2014. As preliminary results highlight the significant autocorrelations in stock returns, Threshold-GARCH (1,1) model is used to estimate the conditional volatility, which is further decomposed into expected and unexpected volatility. Findings Results highlight that the volatility has symmetric impact on stock returns during the pre-crash period and asymmetric impact during the post-crash period. While testing the relationship of stock returns, a significant positive (negative) relationship is found with expected volatility during the pre-crash (post-crash) periods. The stock returns are found positively related to unexpected volatility. Research limitations/implications Business, political and other market conditions of sample stock markets are fundamentally different. These economies were liberalized in different years, which may affect the degree of integration with international equity markets. Practical implications The findings highlight that investors consider the impact of expected volatility in forecasting of stock returns during the growth period. They realize returns in commensurate to risk of their portfolios. However, they significantly reduce their investments in response to expected volatility during the recession period. The positive relationship between stock returns and unexpected volatility highlights the fact that investors realize extra returns for exposing their portfolios to unexpected volatility. Originality/value Pioneer efforts are made by using T-GARCH (1,1) procedure to analyse the problem. Given the emergence of emerging equity markets, new insight in dynamics of stock returns provide interesting findings for portfolio diversification under risk and uncertainty.

The impact of qualified audit opinion on stock returns: an empirical study at Amman stock exchange

2022 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rana Bayo Flees ◽  
Sulaiman Mouselli
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Market Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Going Concern ◽  
Study Approach ◽  
Audit Opinions ◽  
The Impact ◽  
First Time

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the impact of qualified audit opinions on the returns of stocks listed at Amman Stock Exchange (ASE) after the introduction of the recent amendments by the International Auditing and Assurance Standard Board (IAASB) on audits reporting and conclusions. It further investigates if results differ between first time qualified and sequenced qualifications, and between plain qualified opinion and qualifications with going concern. Design/methodology/approach Audit opinions’ announcements and stock returns data are collected from companies’ annual reports for the fiscal years 2016 to 2019 while stock returns are computed from stock closing prices published at ASE website. The authors apply the event study approach and use the market model to calculate normal returns. Cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) and average abnormal returns (AARs) are computed for all qualified audit opinions’ announcements. Findings The empirical evidence suggests that investors at ASE do not react to qualified audit opinions announcements. That is, the authors find an insignificant impact of qualified audit opinion announcements on stock returns using both CAR and AAR estimates. The results are robust to first time and sequenced qualifications, and for qualifications with going concern. Results are also robust to the use of risk adjusted market model. Research limitations/implications The insignificant impact of qualified audit opinions on stock returns have two potential conflicting research implications. First, the new amendments introduced to auditors’ report made them more informative and reduce the negative signals contained in the qualified opinions. That is, investors are now aware of the real causes of qualifications and not overreacting to the qualified opinion. Second, the documented insignificant impact confirms that ASE is not a semi-strong form efficient. Practical implications The apparent excessive use of qualifications should ring the bell on whether auditors misuse their power or companies are really in trouble. Hence, the Jordanian regulatory bodies need to warn auditors against the excessive use of qualifications on the one hand, and to raise the awareness of investors on the implications of auditors’ opinions on the other hand. Originality/value This study is innovative in twofold. First, it explores the impact of qualified audit opinions on stock returns after the introduction of new amendments by IAASB at ASE. In addition, it uses event study approach and distinguishes between first time qualified and sequenced qualifications, and between plain qualified opinion and qualifications with going concern. The results are consistent with efficient market theory and behavioral finance explanations.

Investor attention and market correction

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhongdong Chen
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Trading Behavior ◽  
Investor Attention ◽  
Information Effect ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Significance ◽  
New Information ◽  
Positive Volume ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis study disentangles the investor-base effect and the information effect of investor attention. The former leads to a larger investor base and higher stock returns, while the latter facilitates the dissemination of information among investors and impacts informational trading.Design/methodology/approachUsing positive volume shocks as a proxy for increased investor attention, this study evaluates the impacts of the investor-base effect and the information effect of investor attention on market correction following extreme daily returns in the US stock market from 1966 to 2018.FindingsThis study finds that the investor-base effect increases subsequent returns of both daily winner and daily loser stocks. The information effect leads to economically less significant return reversals for both the daily winner and daily loser stocks. These two effects tend to have economically more significant impacts on the daily loser stocks. The economic significance of these two effects is also related to firm size and the state of the stock market.Originality/valueThis study is the first to disentangle the investor-base effect and the information effect of increased investor attention. The evidence that the information effect facilitates the dissemination of new information and impacts stock returns contributes to the strand of studies on the impact of investor attention on market efficiency. This evidence also contributes to the strand of studies analyzing the impact of informational trading on stock returns. In addition, this study provides evidence for market overreaction and the subsequent correction. The results for up and down markets contribute to the literature on the investors' trading behavior.

Herding behavior in Islamic GCC stock market: a daily analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 182-193 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mustapha Chaffai ◽  
Imed Medhioub
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Quantile Regression ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Quantile Regression Analysis ◽  
Herd Behaviour ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Quantile Regression Method

Purpose This paper aims to examine the presence of herd behaviour in the Islamic Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) stock markets following the methodology given by Chiang and Zheng (2010). Generalized auto regressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH)-type models and quantile regression analysis are used and applied to daily data ranging from 3 January 2010 to 28 July 2016. Results show evidence of herd behaviour in the GCC stock markets. When the data are divided into down and up market periods, herd information is found to be statistically significant and negative during upward market periods only. These results are similar to those reported in some emerging markets such as China, Japan and Hong Kong, where stock returns perform more similarly during down market periods and differently during rising markets. Design/methodology/approach The authors present a brief literature on herd behaviour. Second, the authors provide some specificity of the GCC Islamic stock market, followed by the presentation of the methodology and the data, results and their interpretation. Findings The authors take into account the difference existing in market conditions and find evidence of herding behaviour during rising markets only for GCC markets. This result was confirmed after using the quantile regression method, as evidence of herding was observed only in highly extreme periods. Stock returns perform more similarly when market is down in Islamic GCC stock market. Research limitations/implications The research limitation consists in the fact that this work can be extended to compare the GCC stock markets with other markets in Asia such as Malaysia and Indonesia. Practical implications The principal implication consists in the fact that herding behaviour is limited in the GCC markets and Islamic finance can have an important contribution to moderate the behaviour in the financial markets. Social implications The work focusses on the role of ethics in the financial markets and their ability to reduce the impact of behavioural biases. Originality/value The paper studies the behaviour of investors in the Islamic financial markets and gives an idea about the importance of the behaviour in this particular market regarding its characteristics.

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