The economic determinants of the implied volatility function for currency options

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 1798-1819
Author(s):  
Aparna Prasad Bhat
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Implied Volatility ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Volatility Smile ◽  
Currency Options ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Indian Rupee ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Volatility Function ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to ascertain the pattern of the implied volatility function for currency options traded on the National Stock Exchange of India (NSE), identify its potential determinants and to investigate any seasonality in the pattern. Design/methodology/approach The paper examines four different specifications for the implied volatility smile of exchange-traded dollar-rupee options. These specifications are tested by running Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regressions on a daily basis for all options over the entire sample period. Seven potential determinants for the shape of the volatility function are identified. Contemporaneous and lead-lag relationships between these determinants and the shape of the volatility function are examined using OLS and multivariate VAR. Impulse response functions are employed to test the strength and persistence of the lead-lag relations. Seasonality of the smile pattern is tested using OLS. Findings The study shows that the implied volatility function for dollar-rupee options is asymmetric and varies with the time to maturity of the option. Historical volatility, momentum and jumps in the exchange rate, time to maturity, traded volume of options and volatility in the stock market appear to Granger-cause the shape of the volatility smile. Feedback causality is observed from the shape of the smile to the volatility, momentum and jumps in the exchange rate and trading volume of currency options. A weak day-of-the-week effect is observed in the pattern of the volatility smile. Practical implications The study sheds light on the potential determinants of the smile and highlights the predictive power of the smile which findings can be useful to market practitioners for pricing and hedging of dollar-rupee options. The study has strong practical implications during a period of increased volatility in the dollar-rupee pair. Originality/value Most of the existing literature regarding implied volatility smiles has focused either on the volatility smile of US equity index options or that of major liquid currencies. There is a need for such studies in the context of options on emerging market currencies such as the Indian rupee which are characterized by thin trading and frequent central bank intervention and signaling. To the best of the author’s knowledge this study is the first to focus on the volatility smile of exchange-traded options on the US dollar–Indian rupee.

scholarly journals Pre-Brexit

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (5) ◽  
pp. 910-921 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Ali Nasir ◽  
Jamie Morgan
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Social Implications ◽  
Reduced Form ◽  
Government Investment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore the period of uncertainty created by the referendum. The focus is the UK real effective exchange rate (REER). The authors set out to measure the additional impact of the uncertainty surrounding the referendum. The authors distinguish this from the longer trend value of Sterling. Design/methodology/approach The study applies a reduced form exchange rate model, first introduced by Edwards (1994), and makes use of Bank of England daily data for the period November 2015–July 2016. Findings The results indicate a sharp depreciation of Sterling with reference to its long-term trend. The authors set out some of the possible context which may account for fluctuations during the referendum campaigning period. This can be distinguished from other longer-term factors likely to be previously responsible for trend depreciation, and also from the further sharp depreciation effects triggered by the referendum outcome. The principal finding is that during the week of the referendum, up to the declaration of the result, exchange rate depreciation deviated from the long-run trend by approximately 3.5 per cent, but the actual immediate effect on the exchange rate was an 8 per cent depreciation. Over the period from the announcement of the referendum, the exchange rate fluctuated markedly around its trend and one can also identify a larger effect based on the “wrong-footing” of markets at the point when the outcome was announced. Research limitations/implications The research has important implications, as one might further infer that this marks a step change in attitudes to Sterling as Brexit became a real issue rather than a notional concern. One can thus consider the exchange rate as both symptom of and indicator for determinations of the underlying economic strength or weakness of the economy. In essence, it has acted as a litmus test. Practical implications The research has important practical implications in understanding the dynamics of the exchange rate market and the role of uncertainty in its dynamics. Social implications The study has important social implications as the changes to exchange rates are a perennial cause for concern. Exchange rates sit as one among many problems for the contemporary UK economy. Brexit has resulted in a significant subsequent depreciation of Sterling. Inter alia, though the immediate effect of Brexit on growth was muted due to unexpected sustained consumer spending, throughout the latter half of 2016 and the first two quarters of 2017, business investment slowed, the rate of deficit reduction slowed (but without any concomitant meaningfully rise in government investment in infrastructure, etc.) and both main measures of inflation began to rise. Originality/value The study contributes to the existing body of knowledge by exploring the period of uncertainty created by the referendum and its implications for the UK REER. The study differentiates and reflects on the weakness of Sterling due to the weak external position of UK’s economy and the further role played by the uncertainty surrounding Brexit. In this sense, it important contribution to theory as well as practice.

Sovereign credit news and disagreement in expectations about the exchange rate: evidence from Brazil

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Diego Silveira Pacheco de Oliveira ◽  
Gabriel Caldas Montes
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Formation Process ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Sovereign Credit ◽  
Expectations Formation ◽  
Exchange Rate Expectations ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Practical Implications

PurposeCredit rating agencies (CRAs) are perceived as highly influential in the financial system since their announcements can affect several players in the financial markets, from big private financial and non-financial companies and their financial markets experts to sovereign states. In this sense, this study investigates whether sovereign credit news issued by CRAs (measured by comprehensive credit rating (CCR) variables) affect the uncertainties about the exchange rate in the future (captured by the disagreement about exchange rate expectations). The study is relevant once there is evidence indicating that CRAs' assessments are responsible for affecting international capital flows and, thus, sovereign rating changes can affect the expectations formation process regarding the exchange rate. In addition, there is evidence indicating that the disagreement about exchange rate expectations affects the disagreement about inflation expectations, which brings consequences to policymakers.Design/methodology/approachThe dependent variables are the disagreement in expectations about the Brazilian exchange rate for different forecast horizons, 12, 24 and 36 months ahead and the first principal component of theses series. On the other hand, the CCR variables are built upon the long-term foreign-currency Brazilian bonds ratings, outlooks and credit watches provided by the main CRAs. Estimates are obtained using ordinary least squares (OLS) and generalized method of moments (GMM); a dynamic analysis is performed using vector-autoregressive (VAR) through impulse-response functions.FindingsNegative (positive) sovereign credit news, given by a rating downgrade (upgrade) and/or a negative (positive) outlook/watch status, increase (decrease) the disagreement about exchange rate expectations. This result holds for all disagreement and CCR variables.Practical implicationsThe study brings practical implications to both private agents (mainly financial market experts) and policymakers. An important practical implication of the study concerns the ability of CRAs to affect the expectations formation process of financial market experts regarding the future behavior of the exchange rate. When a CRA issues a signal of improvement in a country's sovereign rating, this signal reflects the perception of improvement in macroeconomic fundamentals and reduction of uncertainties about the country's ability to honor its financial obligations, which therefore, facilitates the expectations formation process, causing a reduction in the disagreement about the exchange rate expectations. With respect to the consequences for policymakers, they will have more difficulty in guiding expectations in a country with a worse sovereign risk rating, where agents have difficulties in forming expectations and the disagreement in expectations is greater.Originality/valueThe study is the first to analyze the impact of CRAs' announcements on the disagreement about exchange rate expectations. Moreover, it connects the literature that investigates the effects of sovereign credit news on the economy with the literature that examines the main determinants of disagreement in expectations about macroeconomic variables.

Measuring the service gaps in the roles of quantity surveyors in the emerging market

2016 ◽  
Vol 23 (5) ◽  
pp. 1111-1131 ◽  
Author(s):  
AbdulLateef Olanrewaju
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Construction Industry ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
The Other ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Practical Implications ◽  
Survey Questionnaires

Purpose – The opportunities that the emerging markets present to the players in the construction industry means that the players need to expand on the scope and size of their responsibilities and duties to the stakeholders. Each of the professionals now demands more specialised and sophisticated services from one another. The other players in the construction industry now require more emerging responsibilities and duties from the quantity surveyors. The purpose of this paper is to examine the roles that “modern” quantity surveyors play by measuring the gaps that exist in the services that the quantity surveyors provide. Design/methodology/approach – Primary data are collected through survey questionnaires. In total, 23 roles played by modern quantity surveyors are identified and addressed to the respondents to rank the rate at which quantity surveyors provide these “emerging” services. The collected data were analysed statistically. Findings – The results of the findings led to the conclusion that the quantity surveyors were not meeting the expectations of other players. Therefore, for competitiveness, quantity surveyors need to better meet demand expectations. Research limitations/implications – This findings of this research are constrained to the services or functions that the quantity provide in the construction industry. Practical implications – This knowledge is valuable to academic institutions that offer quantity surveying programmes, to practicing quantity surveyors, governments, and other players in the construction industry. It will allow quantity surveyors to reconcile supply and demand expectations. Originality/value – There is no known conclusive empirical study on services offered by quantity surveyors in any emerging markets. Therefore, the findings offer a fresh understanding on the services of quantity surveyors not only in Nigeria but elsewhere. While some of the services are common, others are peculiar to emerging markets.

Macroeconomic fundamentals and dynamics of the Indian rupee-dollar exchange rate

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 301-326 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chandan Sharma ◽  
Rajat Setia
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Dollar Exchange Rate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Indian Rupee ◽  
Macroeconomic Fundamentals ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – This paper aims to examine the relationship between Indian rupee-US dollar exchange rate and the macroeconomic fundamentals for the post-economic reform period. Design/methodology/approach – The authors have used an empirical model which includes a range of important macroeconomic variables based on the basic monetary theories of exchange rate determination. At the first stage of the analysis, they have tested structural break in the data. Subsequently, they have employed the fully modified ordinary least square, Wald’s coefficient restriction and impulse response functions (IRF) to estimate the monetary model in the long- and short-run horizons. Findings – Results of analyses indicate that the macroeconomic fundamentals determine exchange rate in a significant way, but their effect varies sizably across the periods. The IRF illustrate the importance of interest rate in controlling exchange rate volatility. Practical implications – The analysis of the behavior of inter-relationship among macroeconomic variables will help policymakers in a deep-rooted understanding of this complex and time-varying relationship. Originality/value – Most of the existing studies have tested the impact of a single or a few macroeconomic fundamentals on exchange rate. But in the present study, we have tested the impact of a range of important variables, i.e. money supply, real income or output, price level and trade balance. Further, considering the importance of structural breaks in data, they authors have employed standard tests of structural break and incorporated the issue in the cointegration analysis.

Home country underdevelopment and internationalization

2017 ◽  
Vol 27 (3) ◽  
pp. 217-230 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alvaro Cuervo-Cazurra ◽  
Ravi Ramamurti
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Comparative Advantage ◽  
Home Country ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Emerging Market Multinationals ◽  
Economic Underdevelopment ◽  
Conceptual Paper ◽  
Practical Implications ◽  
At Home

Purpose The purpose of this study is to use the rise of emerging-market multinationals as a vehicle to explore how a firm’s country of origin influences its internationalization. Design/methodology/approach This paper is a conceptual paper. Findings We argue that the home country’s institutional and economic underdevelopment can influence the internationalization of firms in two ways. First, emerging-market firms may leverage innovations made at home to cope with underdeveloped institutions or economic backwardness to gain a competitive advantage abroad, especially in other emerging markets; We call this innovation-based internationalization. Second, they may expand into countries that are more developed or have better institutions to escape weaknesses on these fronts at home; we call this escape-based internationalization. Research limitations/implications Comparative disadvantages influence the internationalization of the firm differently from comparative advantage, as it forces the firm to actively upgrade its firm-specific advantage and internationalize. Practical implications We explain two drivers of internationalization that managers operating in emerging markets can consider when facing disadvantages in their home countries and follow several strategies, namely, trickle-up innovation, self-reliant innovation, improvisation management, self-reliance management, technological escape, marketing escape, institutional escape and discriminatory escape. Originality/value We explain how a firm’s home country’s comparative disadvantage, not just its comparative advantage, can spur firms its internationalization.

Exploring the relationship between macroeconomic indicators and sovereign credit default swap in Pakistan

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 368-380
Author(s):  
Abdul Rashid ◽  
Farooq Ahmad ◽  
Ammara Yasmin
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Credit Default Swap ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Credit Default ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Interest Rate

Purpose This paper aims to empirically examine the long- and short-run relationship between macroeconomic indicators (exchange rates, interest rates, exports, imports, foreign reserves and the rate of inflation) and sovereign credit default swap (SCDS) spreads for Pakistan. Design/methodology/approach The authors apply the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to explore the level relationship between the macroeconomic variables and SCDS spreads. The error correction model is estimated to examine the short-run effects of the underlying macroeconomic variables on SCDS spreads. Finally, the long-run estimates are obtained in the ARDL framework. The study uses monthly data covering the period January 2001-February 2015. Findings The results indicate that there is a significant long-run relationship between the macroeconomic indicators and SCDS spreads. The estimated long-run coefficients reveal that both the interest rate and foreign exchange reserves are significantly and negatively, whereas imports and the rate of inflation are positively related to SCDS spreads. Yet, the results suggest that the exchange rate and exports do not have any significant long-run impact on SCDS spreads. The findings regarding the short-run relationship indicate that the exchange rate, imports and the rate of inflation are positively, whereas the interest rate and exports are negatively related to SCDS spreads. Practical implications The results suggest that State Bank of Pakistan should design monetary and foreign exchange rate polices to minimize unwanted variations in the exchange rate to reduce SCDS spreads. The results also suggest that it is incumbent to Pakistan Government to improve the balance of payments to reduce SCDS spreads. The findings also suggest that the inflation targeting policy can also help in reducing SCDS spreads. Originality/value This is the first study to examine the empirical determinants of SCDS spreads for Pakistan. Second, it estimates the short- and long-run effects in the ARDL framework. Third, it considers both internal and external empirical determinants of SCDS spreads.

Flexibility decision pathways in the management of uncertainty in property development: experience from an emerging market

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy Oluwafemi Ayodele ◽  
Abel Olaleye
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Market ◽  
Survey Method ◽  
Property Development ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Development Experience ◽  
High Level ◽  
Stratified Analysis ◽  
Management Of Uncertainty ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the flexible decision pathways adopted by development advisors in the management of uncertainty in property development. Specifically, the study examines the quantitative techniques adopted by development advisors, the level of adoption of real options analysis (ROA) vis-à-vis the level of adoption of heuristics. Finally, the types of options exercised in property development were analysed. This was with a view to providing information that could mitigate the challenges of risk and uncertainty and increasing investment failure associated with property development in Nigeria, an emerging market. Design/methodology/approach The study adopted a survey method and was conducted on development advisors in property development companies/estate surveying and valuation firms in Nigeria. A total of 195 development advisors participated in the survey. The respondents were required to rate, on a five-point Likert scale, the level of adoption of the quantitative models, heuristics and the types of flexibility exercised during development. The data were analysed using mean rating, one-sample t-test and analysis of variance. Findings The results revealed that there was a preference for the use of traditional techniques, while probabilistic appraisal models and other contemporary methods such as ROA are seldom adopted by development advisors. While there was a significantly high level of adoption of heuristics, the stratified analysis examining the profile of the respondents and the level of adoption of ROA and heuristics suggests that years of experience influenced the level of adoption of both the ROA and heuristics by the development advisors. The analysis of the types of flexibility showed that staging/phasing and changing the initial use/design were the most prevalent flexibility pathways adopted during the development. However, the study found that there was no significant difference concerning the choice of flexibility being adopted by development advisors who used ROA and those who did not. Practical implications The study provides an understanding of the decision pathways adopted by development advisors in an emerging market like Nigeria. Originality/value The paper contributes to studies on decision-making pathways in the management of uncertainty under dynamic conditions by development advisors in emerging markets.

Development of empirically based customer-derived positioning taxonomy for consumer electronics sector in the Indian emerging market

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Natasha Saqib ◽  
Mir Shahid Satar
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Market ◽  
Consumer Electronics ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Measurement Scales ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Market Positioning ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Customer Perceptions ◽  
Visual Aesthetics ◽  
Practical Implications

PurposeAn Indian emerging market positioning taxonomy has been developed in response to the literature review's findings that existing positioning typologies/taxonomies are based on managerial perspectives rather than consumer/customer perceptions and are only developed for advanced countries.Design/methodology/approachThis study employs a three-step process for developing and validating a scale in order to conduct its research. In the first phase, items are generated and selected based on a literature review, focus groups and expert opinion. Exploratory factor analysis is used to fine-tune the scale in the second phase. Phase 3 uses CFA to establish convergent, discriminant and nomological validity through the use of CFA.FindingsA consumer-based taxonomy of positioning strategies were developed as a result of the research. Six distinct positioning strategies emerged that was named (1) Value for Money, (2) Functional (3) Premiumisation, (4) Promotional Campaign, (5) Brand Name (6) Visual Aesthetics.Research limitations/implicationsDeveloping and validating measurement scales will be made easier with the help of this paper. Target populations, industry and geography selection and a cross-sectional time horizon are just a few of the study's drawbacks.Practical implicationsThe study's practical implications include six factors/strategies that managers, advertising executives and marketing experts of consumer electronics companies in the Indian emerging market could use to position their products, resulting in the overall success of their organisations.Originality/valueThis study adds to the marketing literature by providing a solid theoretical foundation and a validated instrument for operationalising positioning strategies.

Pricing currency options in the Heston/CIR double exponential jump-diffusion model

2017 ◽  
Vol 04 (01) ◽  
pp. 1750013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rehez Ahlip ◽  
Laurence A. F. Park ◽  
Ante Prodan
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Analytical Formula ◽  
Jump Diffusion ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Model ◽  
Currency Options ◽  
Volatility Model ◽  
Double Exponential ◽  
Jump Diffusion Model ◽  
The Exchange Rate

We examine currency options in the double exponential jump-diffusion version of the Heston stochastic volatility model for the exchange rate. We assume, in addition, that the domestic and foreign stochastic interest rates are governed by the CIR dynamics. The instantaneous volatility is correlated with the dynamics of the exchange rate return, whereas the domestic and foreign short-term rates are assumed to be independent of the dynamics of the exchange rate and its volatility. The main result furnishes a semi-analytical formula for the price of the European currency call option in the hybrid foreign exchange/interest rates model.

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