scholarly journals Pre-Brexit

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (5) ◽  
pp. 910-921 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Ali Nasir ◽  
Jamie Morgan
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Social Implications ◽  
Reduced Form ◽  
Government Investment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore the period of uncertainty created by the referendum. The focus is the UK real effective exchange rate (REER). The authors set out to measure the additional impact of the uncertainty surrounding the referendum. The authors distinguish this from the longer trend value of Sterling. Design/methodology/approach The study applies a reduced form exchange rate model, first introduced by Edwards (1994), and makes use of Bank of England daily data for the period November 2015–July 2016. Findings The results indicate a sharp depreciation of Sterling with reference to its long-term trend. The authors set out some of the possible context which may account for fluctuations during the referendum campaigning period. This can be distinguished from other longer-term factors likely to be previously responsible for trend depreciation, and also from the further sharp depreciation effects triggered by the referendum outcome. The principal finding is that during the week of the referendum, up to the declaration of the result, exchange rate depreciation deviated from the long-run trend by approximately 3.5 per cent, but the actual immediate effect on the exchange rate was an 8 per cent depreciation. Over the period from the announcement of the referendum, the exchange rate fluctuated markedly around its trend and one can also identify a larger effect based on the “wrong-footing” of markets at the point when the outcome was announced. Research limitations/implications The research has important implications, as one might further infer that this marks a step change in attitudes to Sterling as Brexit became a real issue rather than a notional concern. One can thus consider the exchange rate as both symptom of and indicator for determinations of the underlying economic strength or weakness of the economy. In essence, it has acted as a litmus test. Practical implications The research has important practical implications in understanding the dynamics of the exchange rate market and the role of uncertainty in its dynamics. Social implications The study has important social implications as the changes to exchange rates are a perennial cause for concern. Exchange rates sit as one among many problems for the contemporary UK economy. Brexit has resulted in a significant subsequent depreciation of Sterling. Inter alia, though the immediate effect of Brexit on growth was muted due to unexpected sustained consumer spending, throughout the latter half of 2016 and the first two quarters of 2017, business investment slowed, the rate of deficit reduction slowed (but without any concomitant meaningfully rise in government investment in infrastructure, etc.) and both main measures of inflation began to rise. Originality/value The study contributes to the existing body of knowledge by exploring the period of uncertainty created by the referendum and its implications for the UK REER. The study differentiates and reflects on the weakness of Sterling due to the weak external position of UK’s economy and the further role played by the uncertainty surrounding Brexit. In this sense, it important contribution to theory as well as practice.

On the asymmetric response of the exchange rate to shocks in the crude oil market

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 839-852 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huthaifa Alqaralleh
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Financial Crises ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Asymmetric Cointegration

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the nonlinear dynamics in the effects of oil price shocks on the exchange rate for a sample from the Group of Twenty (G20) over the period 1994:1-2019:1. Design/methodology/approach Using monthly time series data covering the period1994:1-2019:1, the author first use the non-parametric triples test of Randles et al. (1980) to ascertain the existence of asymmetric properties in the sample of exchange rates. Then the author used the nonlinear ARDL cointegration approach developed by Shin et al. (2014) to examine the reaction of these exchange rates to the oil price shocks. Findings This study has identified significant evidence that the exchange rate is asymmetrically distributed, with the effect that high appreciation of the exchange rate is followed by slower depreciation. The NARDL results support such asymmetry even more strongly because in the test the exchange rate is shown to react differently in the long term to positive and negative shocks in oil prices. Another major finding was that the speed of adjustment differed over the sample, as the cumulative dynamic multipliers effect highlighted. Research limitations/implications This change in direction and the employment of non-linear technique can be to obtain better insight into the model specification, which the author believes, will not only enhance the findings in the literature but also enhance forecasting and decision-making. Practical implications A practical implication of this change is the possibility that policymakers and participants concerned with exchange rate stability should intervene in the market to alleviate the unfavourable impact of oil price shocks on the exchange rate. Originality/value Addressing this nonlinear dynamic in the effects of oil price shocks on the exchange rate have at least the following two important reasons: asymmetry and regime change are types of nonlinearities that affect the market dynamics, especially, over marked sample period with such financial crises as the global financial crises of 2007, thereby violating the linear models. Adopting an asymmetric cointegration technique permits to incorporate cointegrated positive and negative components of the considered series.

scholarly journals Impacts of the monetary policy on the exchange rate: case study of Vietnam

2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 220-237
Author(s):  
Van Anh Pham
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Quantitative Results ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to evaluate and analyze impacts of the monetary policy (MP) – money aggregate and interest rate – on the exchange rate in Vietnam. Design/methodology/approach The study uses data over the period of 2008–2018 and applies the vector autoregression model, namely recursive restriction and sign restriction approaches. Findings The main empirical findings are as follows: a contraction of the money aggregate significantly leads to the real effective exchange rate (REER) depreciating and then appreciating; a tightening of the interest rate immediately causes the REER appreciating and then depreciating; and both the money aggregate and the interest rate strongly determine fluctuations of the REER. Originality/value The quantitative results imply that the MP affects the REER considerably.

The Age of No Retirement

2015 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 159-164
Author(s):  
Jonathan Collie
Keyword(s):  
Social Enterprise ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Social Implications ◽  
Healthy Life ◽  
Content Type ◽  
New Era ◽  
The Social ◽  
New Thinking ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore the value, often overlooked, inherent within a society where people are living longer, healthier and more productively than ever before. Design/methodology/approach – This paper is a summary of the activities, achievements and objectives of “The Age of No Retirement” movement for social change since its inception on 1st October 2014. Findings – The spectacular demand for new thinking and design-led action across all sectors of society to break down the ageist stereotypes that are impeding age-neutral societal progress in the UK. Practical implications – Communities, employers, individuals – EVERYONE – can begin to harness the incredible power of the Xtra 10 (the extra ten years of healthy life expectancy that modern generations can now expect – in the middle of their lives!). Social implications – The social implications are almost limitless – for a new era of over-50 makers, designers, entrepreneurs, workers, leaders, learners, teachers, doers, intergenerational catalysts, etc., the list goes on. Originality/value – The Age of No Retirement is a design-led social enterprise that is driving new thinking in the Age space.

scholarly journals Brexit associated sharp depreciation and implications for UK’s inflation and balance of payments

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (2) ◽  
pp. 231-246 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Ali Nasir ◽  
Justine Simpson
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Social Implications ◽  
Content Type ◽  
External Balance ◽  
The Future ◽  
Trade Relationships ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyse the implications of exchange rate depreciation for inflation targeting and trade balance of UK in the context of the Brexit epoch. Design/methodology/approach The study employed a time-varying structural vector auto-regression (TVSVAR) model framework in which the sources of time variation were both the coefficients and variance-covariance matrix of the innovations on the data from January 1989 to September 2016. Findings The findings suggest that the depreciation of the Stirling has significant effects on inflation and trade balance in UK in context of Brexit epoch. It also showed that such a depreciation can be helpful in the improvement of external balance as well as steering the inflation to its statutory target. Despite, the inflation targeting, there is strong evidence of a pass-through. Research limitations/implications Research has profound implications in terms of the sharp depreciation of GBP associated with the Brexit outcome. The study is very topical and could be very interesting to the readership of JES as well as wider audience. The study has limitations in a context that the significance of the results and association of the under analysis entities is contingent on the future trade relationships and Channel between UK and EU. Therefore, although there is a lot of uncertainty about the future of Britain trade relationships, this study provides guidance on the importance of exchange rate channel if the similar trade arrangements prevails in the post-Brexit era. Practical implications The research has profound practical implications, using a TVSVAR model in which the relationship among the entities varies over time; it has shown the importance of exchange rate in terms of external balance and inflation targeting. Hence, it has appeal for the practitioners as well as academics. Social implications The research has great social implications. The Brexit is the biggest political and economic event of this era for UK and EU. There are big questions about the relationship between UK and EU in the post-Brexit epoch as well as questions about the future of the European integration. In this context, this study has shown that how the exchange rate could play an important role for the UK economy when its contemporary trade channels prevail. Concomitantly, it has social implications particularly for the European society. Originality/value The research is an original piece of work. It has contributed to the debate on the exchange rate deprecation, external balance and inflation targeting in context of the Brexit associated sharp depreciation of Stirling. It has used a framework, i.e. TVSVAR, which also have unique features in terms of testing the associations among under analysis entities against time.

Exploring exchange rate based policy coordination in SADC

2016 ◽  
Vol 33 (4) ◽  
pp. 576-594 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mulatu Fekadu Zerihun ◽  
Martinus C. Breitenbach ◽  
Francis Kemegue
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Policy Coordination ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Monetary Integration ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Structural Variables ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

Purpose This paper explores the possibilities for policy coordination in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) as well as real effective exchange rate (REER) stability as a prerequisite towards sensible monetary integration. The underlying hypothesis goes with the assertion that countries meeting optimum currency area conditions face more stable exchange rates. Design/methodology/approach The quantitative analysis encompasses 12 SADC member states over the period 1995-2012. Correlation matrixes, dynamic pooled mean group (PMG) and mean group (MG) estimators and real effective exchange rate (REER) and real exchange rate (RER) equilibrium and misalignment analysis are carried out to arrive at the conclusions. Findings The study finds that the structural variables used in the PMG model show that there are common fiscal and monetary policy variables that determine REER/RER in the region. However, the exchange rate equilibrium misalignment analysis reveals that SADC economies are characterised by persistent overvaluation at least in the short term. This calls for further sustained policy coordination in the region. Practical implications The findings in this paper have important policy implications for economic stability and for the attempt of policy coordination in SADC region for the proposed monetary integration to proceed. Originality/value This study is the first attempt that relates the exchange rate as a policy coordination instrument among SADC economies.

Commodity prices and exchange rates: evidence from commodity-dependent developed and emerging economies

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Saba Haider ◽  
Mian Sajid Nazir ◽  
Alfredo Jiménez ◽  
Muhammad Ali Jibran Qamar
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Emerging Countries ◽  
Superior Performance ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Commodity Export ◽  
The Exchange Rate

PurposeIn this paper the authors examine evidence on exchange rate predictability through commodity prices for a set of countries categorized as commodity import- and export-dependent developed and emerging countries.Design/methodology/approachThe authors perform in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting analysis. The commodity prices are modeled to predict the exchange rate and to analyze whether this commodity price model can perform better than the random walk model (RWM) or not. These two models are compared and evaluated in terms of exchange rate forecasting abilities based on mean squared forecast error and Theil inequality coefficient.FindingsThe authors find that primary commodity prices better predict exchange rates in almost two-thirds of export-dependent developed countries. In contrast, the RWM shows superior performance in the majority of export-dependent emerging, import-dependent emerging and developed countries.Originality/valuePrevious studies examined the exchange rate of commodity export-dependent developed countries mainly. This study examines both developed and emerging countries and finds for which one the changes in prices of export commodities (in case of commodity export-dependent country) or prices of major importing commodities (in case of import-dependent countries) can significantly predict the exchange rate.

The volatility of tourism demand and real effective exchange rates: a disaggregated analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Laron Delano Alleyne ◽  
Onoh-Obasi Okey ◽  
Winston Moore
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Tourism Demand ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

Purpose One of the main factors that can impact the cost of holidays to a particular destination is the exchange rate; exchange rate fluctuations impact the overall price of the holiday and should be expected to effect tourism demand. This paper aims to scrutinize the volatility of the real effective exchange rate between the source market relative to the holiday destination and tourism demand volatility, where the influence of disaggregated data is noted. Design/methodology/approach The study uses multivariate conditional volatility regressions to simulate the time-varying conditional variances of international visitor demand and exchange rates for the relatively mature Caribbean tourist destination of Barbados. Data on the country’s main source markets, the UK, the USA and Canada is used, where the decision to disaggregate the analysis by market allows the authors to contribute to policymaking, particularly the future of tourism marketing. Findings The volatility models used in the paper suggests that shocks to total arrivals, as well as the USA and UK markets tend to die out relatively quickly. Asymmetric effects were observed for total arrivals, mainly due to the combination of the different source markets and potential evidence of Butler’s (1980) concept of a tourist area’s cycle of growth. The results also highlight the significance of using disaggregated tourism demand models to simulate volatility, as aggregated models do not adequately capture source market specific shocks, due to the potential model misspecification. Exchange rate volatility is postulated to have resulted in the greater utilization of packaged tours in some markets, while the effects of the market’s online presence moderates the impact of exchange rate volatility on tourist arrivals. Markets should also explore the potential of attracting higher numbers of older tourist, as this group may have higher disposable incomes, thereby mitigating the influence of exchange rate volatility. Research limitations/implications Some of the explanatory variables were not available on a high enough frequency and proxies had to be used. However, the approach used was consistent with other papers in the literature. Practical implications The results from the paper suggest that the effects of exchange rate volatility in key source markets were offset by non-price factors in some markets and the existence of the exchange rate peg in others. In particular, the online presence of the destination was one of those non-price factors highlighted as being important. Originality/value In most theoretical models of tourism demand, disaggregation is not normally considered a significant aspect of the model. This paper contributes to the literature by investigating the impact real effective exchange rate volatility has on tourism demand at a disaggregated source country level. The approach highlights the importance of modeling tourism demand at a disaggregated level and provides important perspective from a mature small island destination.

Reform of UK copyright law and its benefits for libraries

2015 ◽  
Vol 43 (1) ◽  
pp. 14-17 ◽  
Author(s):  
Graham Peter Cornish
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Copyright Law ◽  
Social Implications ◽  
Interlibrary Loan ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Document Delivery ◽  
Management Procedures ◽  
The Uk ◽  
New Research ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of copyright law changes in the UK, especially as they affect interlibrary loan. Design/methodology/approach – Analysis of new legislation were tested against interlibrary needs. Findings – The new laws bring major benefits to libraries and their users by expanding the types of material available and simplifying the management procedures required for document delivery. Practical implications – Libraries and other institutions can now offer a much wider range of services. Social implications – There are considerable benefits to individual users, including those with disabilities, as access is granted to a wider range of materials. Originality/value – New research and analysis relating to laws passed in October 2014.

Sovereign credit news and disagreement in expectations about the exchange rate: evidence from Brazil

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Diego Silveira Pacheco de Oliveira ◽  
Gabriel Caldas Montes
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Formation Process ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Sovereign Credit ◽  
Expectations Formation ◽  
Exchange Rate Expectations ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Practical Implications

PurposeCredit rating agencies (CRAs) are perceived as highly influential in the financial system since their announcements can affect several players in the financial markets, from big private financial and non-financial companies and their financial markets experts to sovereign states. In this sense, this study investigates whether sovereign credit news issued by CRAs (measured by comprehensive credit rating (CCR) variables) affect the uncertainties about the exchange rate in the future (captured by the disagreement about exchange rate expectations). The study is relevant once there is evidence indicating that CRAs' assessments are responsible for affecting international capital flows and, thus, sovereign rating changes can affect the expectations formation process regarding the exchange rate. In addition, there is evidence indicating that the disagreement about exchange rate expectations affects the disagreement about inflation expectations, which brings consequences to policymakers.Design/methodology/approachThe dependent variables are the disagreement in expectations about the Brazilian exchange rate for different forecast horizons, 12, 24 and 36 months ahead and the first principal component of theses series. On the other hand, the CCR variables are built upon the long-term foreign-currency Brazilian bonds ratings, outlooks and credit watches provided by the main CRAs. Estimates are obtained using ordinary least squares (OLS) and generalized method of moments (GMM); a dynamic analysis is performed using vector-autoregressive (VAR) through impulse-response functions.FindingsNegative (positive) sovereign credit news, given by a rating downgrade (upgrade) and/or a negative (positive) outlook/watch status, increase (decrease) the disagreement about exchange rate expectations. This result holds for all disagreement and CCR variables.Practical implicationsThe study brings practical implications to both private agents (mainly financial market experts) and policymakers. An important practical implication of the study concerns the ability of CRAs to affect the expectations formation process of financial market experts regarding the future behavior of the exchange rate. When a CRA issues a signal of improvement in a country's sovereign rating, this signal reflects the perception of improvement in macroeconomic fundamentals and reduction of uncertainties about the country's ability to honor its financial obligations, which therefore, facilitates the expectations formation process, causing a reduction in the disagreement about the exchange rate expectations. With respect to the consequences for policymakers, they will have more difficulty in guiding expectations in a country with a worse sovereign risk rating, where agents have difficulties in forming expectations and the disagreement in expectations is greater.Originality/valueThe study is the first to analyze the impact of CRAs' announcements on the disagreement about exchange rate expectations. Moreover, it connects the literature that investigates the effects of sovereign credit news on the economy with the literature that examines the main determinants of disagreement in expectations about macroeconomic variables.

Exchange rate bands of inaction and hysteresis in EU exports to the global economy

2019 ◽  
Vol 46 (2) ◽  
pp. 335-355 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ansgar Belke ◽  
Dominik Kronen
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Export Performance ◽  
Real Exchange Rates ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Exchange Rate Uncertainty ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to estimate the effect of policy and exchange rate uncertainty shocks on EU countries’ exports to the world economy. The authors examine the performance of the four biggest economies, namely Germany, France, Italy and the UK, under policy and exchange rate uncertainty in exports to some of the most important global export destinations (the USA, Japan, Brazil, Russia and China). Design/methodology/approach For this purpose, the authors apply a non-linear model, where suddenly strong spurts of exports occur when changes of the exchange rate go beyond a zone of inaction, which the authors call “play” area – analogous to mechanical play. The authors implement an algorithm describing path-dependent play hysteresis into a regression framework. The hysteretic impact of real exchange rates on exports is estimated based on the period from 1995M1 to 2015M12. Findings Looking at some of the main export destinations of the selected EU member countries, the USA, Japan and some of the members of BRICS (Brazil, Russia and China), the authors identify significant hysteretic effects for a large part of the EU member countries’ exports. The authors find that their export activity is characterized by “bands of inaction” with respect to changes in the real exchange. To check for robustness, the authors estimate export equations for limited samples: excluding the recent financial crisis and excluding the period up to the burst of the dotcom bubble and September 11. In addition, the authors employ an economic policy uncertainty variable and an exchange rate uncertainty variable as determinants of the width of the area of weak reaction of exports. Research limitations/implications Overall, the authors find that those specifications which take uncertainty into account display the highest goodness of fit, with economic policy uncertainty dominating exchange rate uncertainty. In other words, the option value of waiting dominates the real exchange rate effect on the EU member countries’ exports. Practical implications The existence of “bands of inaction” (called “play”) in EU member countries’ exports should lead to a more objective discussion of peaks and troughs in those countries’ real exchange rates and, more specifically, of the relevance of internal and external devaluation and other indicators to gain international competitiveness on exports in political debates. If policy and/or exchange rate uncertainty are diminished, one may expect an earlier boost in exports, if the home currency is devaluing in real terms. Social implications The results are useful as arguments in the debate about exchange rate pain threshold vs export triggers. Originality/value The authors focus on the export performance of the four biggest economies in the European Union, namely Germany, France, Italy and the UK. The authors examine their respective export performance, as an innovation, under policy and exchange rate uncertainty and, for this purpose, look at some of the most important global export destinations (the USA, Japan and the BRICS (Brazil, Russia and China)). The authors do so, also as an innovation, by differentiating between intervals of weak and strong reaction of their exports to real exchange rate changes.

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