The transition probabilities for inflation episodes in Ghana

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 2028-2046
Author(s):  
Philip Kofi Adom ◽  
Mawunyo Prosper Agradi ◽  
Christopher Quaidoo
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Transition Probabilities ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Supply Side ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Inflation ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
Supply Side Factors

Purpose Following the reforms in monetary policy and shift in fiscal policies, it is logical to presume that these reforms may cause a significant structural change in the dynamic processes of inflation and hence affect the nature of inflation persistence. The purpose of this paper is to examine the persistence nature of the different inflation episodes while controlling for the effects of demand- and supply-side factors, which are modeled as regime-dependent. Design/methodology/approach This paper used the Markov-switching dynamic regression and annual time series data. Findings The results showed that high inflation regime is more persistent than low inflation regime, with a respective average duration of an escape of 3.5 and 2.57 years, which suggests that price stability achievements are less sustainable. In both regimes, demand- and supply-side factors play significant roles in driving inflation, but the effect of the latter dominates. Thus, on the argument of whether inflation in Ghana is structural or monetary, the results support the former. The roles of both structural and monetary factors have changed over time, but that of the former has been more significant and important in Ghana. Originality/value This study provides the first empirical attempt, in the case of Ghana, that examines the persistence nature of different inflation regimes, while modeling the effects of supply and demand factors as regime dependent. In the modeling sense, the authors also contribute by ruling out the assumption that the researcher knows the processes responsible for each observation at each point in time.

scholarly journals Determinants of Exports of Pakistan: A Country-wise Disaggregated Analysis.

2011 ◽  
Vol 50 (4II) ◽  
pp. 715-732 ◽  
Author(s):  
Naseeb Zada ◽  
Malik Muhammad ◽  
Khan Bahadar
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Export Performance ◽  
Small Samples ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Supply Side ◽  
Empirical Bayesian ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
Price And Income Elasticities ◽  
Trade Partners

Given the importance of international trade and export performance in economic growth, this study attempts to examine the determinants of exports of Pakistan, using a time series data over the period 1975-2008. A simultaneous equation approach is followed and the demand and supply side equations are specified with appropriate variables. This is a country-wise disaggregated analysis of Pakistan versus its trade partners and the estimation strategy is based on two approaches. First we employ the Generalised Methods of Moments (GMM), which is followed by the Empirical Bayesian technique to get consistent estimates. The GMM technique is believed to be efficient for time series data provided the sample size is sufficiently large. In case of small samples, the estimates might not be precise and might appear with unbelievable sign and insignificant magnitudes. To avoid the sample bias and other problems, we employ the Empirical Bayesian technique which provides much precise estimates. The factual results obtained via the GMM technique are a little bit mixed, although most of the coefficients are found to be statistically significant and carry their expected signs. In order to compare and validate these results, the Empirical Bayesian technique is employed. This offers considerable improvement over the previous results and all the variables are found to be highly significant with correct sign across the countries concerned with the exception of a few cases. The price and income elasticities in both the demand and supply side equations carry their expected signs and significant magnitudes for the trading partners. The findings suggest that exports of Pakistan are much sensitive to changes in the world demand and world prices. This establishes the importance of demand side factors like world GDP, Real exchange rate, and world prices to determine the exports of Pakistan. On the supply side, we find relatively small price and income elasiticities. The results reveal that demand for exports is relatively higher for countries in NAFTA, European Union and Middle East regions. The study recommends particular concentration on the trade partners in these regions to improve the export performance of Pakistan. Keywords: Exports, GMM, Empirical Bayesian Method, Pakistan

scholarly journals The Role of Cooperatives, Remittances, and Infrastructure in Export Performance of Nepal: ARDL Approach of Cointegration

2020 ◽  
pp. 151-159
Author(s):  
Ramesh C. Paudel ◽  
Chakrapani Acharya ◽  
Resham Thapa-Parajuli
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Export Performance ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Supply Side ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Negative Role ◽  
Supply Side Factors

Cooperatives, remittances, and foreign direct investment (FDI) are crucial source of funds required for better entrepreneurships, which combinedly along with the quality of infrastructure can contribute to enhance the supply side factors of the export performance. Due to the well perceived role of cooperatives, Nepal’s constitution 2015 mentions this sector as one of the three pillars of the national economy while around 30 percent of Nepal’s GDP comes from remittances. As the country lacks the domestic sources for investment, FDI has become an indispensable part of the development sources of the developing countries in the recent decades. This paper analyzes the role of cooperatives, remittances, FDI and infrastructure in export performance of Nepal using the Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) approach of cointegration as suggested by the properties of the time series data for the period of 26 years from 1993 to 2018. The major finding shows that the cooperatives have not contributed to export performance as expected, however the role is positive. The remittances have a strong negative role on export performance, which is largely impacted by the number and quality of the infrastructure. The role of FDI is also negative and might be due to insufficient volume to contribute substantially. This fact seeks the urgent attention from the policy makers to make the country more investment friendly.

ANALISIS PERMINTAAN DAN PENAWARAN BERAS DI PROPINSI JAMBI

2012 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
. Edison ◽  
Pera Nurfathiyah
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Research Result ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
On Demand ◽  
Rice Price ◽  
Production Growth ◽  
Per Capita

The rice production growth that was gotten by Jambi Province with production growth rate of 0,54% can not fully contribute society need that was continuously increasing. Therefore, it can cause unbalance between supply and demand. The objective of research is to know the picture of rice supply and demand and influenced variables on rice supply and demand in Jambi. The simultan model was used to predict factors that influenced rice supply and demand. The research was conducted in Jambi Province on September to December 2009. The primary data needed in this research was time series data from 1996 – 2008. The research result showed that simultaneously rice price factor, the number population and income per capita was significant on demand. And also factor of average rice price, Bangkok rice price, import rice price, hybrid seed, acreage, season, and time trend were influencing significantly on supply. From elasticity value was fortunately all variables that was influencing rice demand and supply in Jambi Province was inelastic. Kata Kunci : rice demand and supply, rice price, elasticit

Market perceptions of liquid sovereign Sukūk: a new asset class?

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 87-108 ◽  
Author(s):  
Volker Nienhaus ◽  
Abdullah Karatas
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Over The Counter ◽  
Yield Curves ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Makers ◽  
Asset Class ◽  
Market Perception

Purpose This paper aims to explore whether the market perceives liquid international sovereign sukūk as distinct from comparable bonds and as an asset class of their own that could shield investors against turbulences in the bond markets. Design/methodology/approach If sukūk and bonds belong to the same asset class, then basically the same supply and demand factors determine inverstors’ activities in both markets. This should lead to matching patterns of yield curves for sukūk and bonds comparable in terms of issuers, maturity, currency, size, liquidity and rating. Only a rough analysis of holding and trading patterns of conventional and Islamic sukūk investors was possible, as most sukūk market transactions are “over-the-counter” and not registered in the Bloomberg database. However, price information could be used for an analysis of yield curves of liquid sovereign sukūk and comparable bonds. Findings Conventional investors participate in the sukūk market, but their influence on prices is rather small, as they act primarily as intermediaries (i.e. market makers) as opposed to price setters. The yield curves of the selected bonds and sukūk widely match. This suggests that bonds and liquid sovereign sukūk belong to the same asset class. Furthermore, as turbulences in conventional markets are also reflected in the sukūk markets, Islamic investors themselves play a role in the transmission. Research limitations/implications The study of holding patterns and of the market perception of sovereign sukūk and bonds required a focus on four countries with deep and (potentially) liquid sukūk markets (Malaysia, Turkey, Indonesia and Hong Kong) and US$-denominated international securities. Some suitable combinations of sukūk and bonds are relatively young issuances with time series data for two to three years only. Data on holding patterns are sketchy and require interpretations based on market knowledge. Practical implications Parallel yield curves indicate that conventional investors do not perceive international sovereign sukūk as an asset class of their own distinct from conventional government bonds. This market perception of liquid international sovereign sukūk could have an impact on other types of sukūk (e.g. on international corporate sukūk) if sovereign sukūk are taken as pricing and performance benchmarks. Originality/value The paper sheds light on institutional investor behavior in the bond and sukūk markets and outlines data availability issues that constrain quantitative analyses in over-the-counter markets.

Prediction of grain supply and demand structural balance in China based on grey models

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Weiming Yang ◽  
Bingjun Li
Keyword(s):  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Influence Factors ◽  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
Supply Side ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Structural Balance ◽  
Grain Security ◽  
Incidence Analysis ◽  
Agricultural Supply

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to comprehensively and accurately analyze the supply and demand structural balance of grain in the context of China's agricultural supply-side reform. By subdividing and forecasting the supply and demand, it is beneficial for targeted production in the case of clear demand and supply trends of main grain varieties.Design/methodology/approachThis paper forecasted and analyzed the demand of main grain varieties by the grey interval forecast, and based on the grey incidence analysis of more influence factors, forecasted the grain production with GM (1,N) model.FindingsThe results show that the demand and yield will keep sustainable growth in the next three years, while there is still a big gap between the supply and demand of the main grain varieties in China and the soybean's production is far behind the growing demand.Practical implicationsThis paper can make full use of the information to provide the evidence for government to formulate policies and put forward some correlative suggestions for growers.Originality/valueIn this paper, the grey model technology is applied to the structural reform of grain supply side, and different models are used to predict the structural balance of supply and demand of different kinds of grain. The study of grain supply and demand structural balance in China is vital to ensure grain security in the context of agricultural supply-side reform.

scholarly journals The lure of populism: A conjoint experiment examining the interplay between demand and supply side factors

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henrik Serup Christensen ◽  
Inga Saikkonen
Keyword(s):  
Generational Differences ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Supply Side ◽  
Demand Side ◽  
Political Leaders ◽  
Finnish Population ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
Political Dissatisfaction ◽  
Conjoint Experiment ◽  
Supply Side Factors

Several studies have examined the success of populist leaders in recent decades. These studies focus on both supply side factors that concern the traits of populist actors and demand side factors in the form of characteristics of the supporters. However, we still lack a solid understanding of how these supply and demand side factors interact to explain the support of populist leaders. We contribute to this literature by examining the interplay of two central supply side factors, people-centeredness and nativism, and two demand side factors, political dissatisfaction and generational differences, in determining populist support. We test these explanations by leveraging a choice-based conjoint analysis embedded in a representative sample of the Finnish population (n=1030). The results show that while both people-centeredness and nativism enhance the favourability of prospective political leaders, it is only nativism that it more appealing to the politically dissatisfied. In contrast to recent studies, we find no evidence that populist leader traits would be more favoured by younger generations. These results indicate that the interplay between supply and demand may well be more intricate than what previous studies suggest.

Exploring the dynamic contribution behavior of editors in wikis based on time series analysis

2016 ◽  
Vol 50 (1) ◽  
pp. 41-57 ◽  
Author(s):  
Linghe Huang ◽  
Qinghua Zhu ◽  
Jia Tina Du ◽  
Baozhen Lee
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Time Of Day ◽  
Observation Time ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Clustering Methods ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Free Rider Problem ◽  
Series Analysis

Purpose – Wiki is a new form of information production and organization, which has become one of the most important knowledge resources. In recent years, with the increase of users in wikis, “free rider problem” has been serious. In order to motivate editors to contribute more to a wiki system, it is important to fully understand their contribution behavior. The purpose of this paper is to explore the law of dynamic contribution behavior of editors in wikis. Design/methodology/approach – After developing a dynamic model of contribution behavior, the authors employed both the metrological and clustering methods to process the time series data. The experimental data were collected from Baidu Baike, a renowned Chinese wiki system similar to Wikipedia. Findings – There are four categories of editors: “testers,” “dropouts,” “delayers” and “stickers.” Testers, who contribute the least content and stop contributing rapidly after editing a few articles. After editing a large amount of content, dropouts stop contributing completely. Delayers are the editors who do not stop contributing during the observation time, but they may stop contributing in the near future. Stickers, who keep contributing and edit the most content, are the core editors. In addition, there are significant time-of-day and holiday effects on the number of editors’ contributions. Originality/value – By using the method of time series analysis, some new characteristics of editors and editor types were found. Compared with the former studies, this research also had a larger sample. Therefore, the results are more scientific and representative and can help managers to better optimize the wiki systems and formulate incentive strategies for editors.

Dynamic prediction of Indian stock market: an artificial neural network approach

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Himanshu Goel ◽  
Narinder Pal Singh
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Institutional Investors ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Gradient Algorithm ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Indian Stock Market

Purpose Artificial neural network (ANN) is a powerful technique to forecast the time series data such as the stock market. Therefore, this study aims to predict the Indian stock market closing price using ANNs. Design/methodology/approach The input variables identified from the literature are some macroeconomic variables and a global stock market factor. The study uses an ANN with Scaled Conjugate Gradient Algorithm (SCG) to forecast the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensex. Findings The empirical findings reveal that the ANN model is able to achieve 93% accuracy in predicting the BSE Sensex closing prices. Moreover, the results indicate that the Morgan Stanley Capital International world index is the most important variable and the index of industrial production is the least important in predicting Sensex. Research limitations/implications The findings of the study have implications for the investors of all categories such as foreign institutional investors, domestic institutional investors and investment houses. Originality/value The novelty of this study lies in the fact that there are hardly any studies that use ANN to forecast the Indian stock market using macroeconomic indicators.

Has the low level of economic growth spurred informal sector activities in Uganda? An empirical analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen Esaku
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Informal Sector ◽  
Shadow Economy ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Revenue Collection ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

PurposeIn this paper, the authors examine how economic growth shapes the shadow economy in the long and short run.Design/methodology/approachUsing annual time series data from Uganda, drawn from various data sources, covering the period from 1991 to 2017, the authors apply the ARDL modeling approach to cointegration.FindingsThis paper finds that an increase in economic growth significantly reduces the size of the shadow economy, in both the long and short run, all else equal. However, the long-run relationship between the shadow economy and growth is non-linear. The results suggest that the rise of the shadow economy could partially be attributed to the slow and sluggish rate of economic growth.Practical implicationsThese findings imply that addressing informality requires addressing underlying factors of underdevelopment since improvements in economic growth also translate into a reduction in the size of the shadow economy in the short and long run.Originality/valueThese findings reveal that the low level of economic growth is an issue because it spurs informal sector activities in the short run. However, as the economy improves, it becomes an incentive for individuals to operate in the informal sector. Additionally, tackling shadow activities in the short run could help improve tax revenue collection.

scholarly journals Analysis of Budget Imbalance Dynamics in Kenya

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 352
Author(s):  
Alex Oguso ◽  
Francis M. Mwega ◽  
Nelson H. Wawire ◽  
Purna Samanta
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Fiscal Consolidation ◽  
The Public ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Seeking Behavior ◽  
Development Goals ◽  
The Government

<p><em>Kenya needs substantial and sustained fiscal consolidation to create fiscal space for financing the government’s election pledges, the Vision 2030 development projects, and sustainable development goals. However, the government has found it hard to sustain its fiscal consolidation attempts. This study investigates the fiscal consolidation constraints that act through the budget imbalance dynamics in Kenya using the </em><em>Olivera-Tanzi effect approach.</em><em> The study covers the period 2000-2015</em><em> using time series data and employs three </em><em>Auto-regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) error correction models</em><em> in the analysis. The study showed that a </em><em>rise in the general price levels in the economy, adjustment of minimum wages, rise</em><em> in perceived levels of corruption in the public sector and the political budget cycles (occurrence of a general election) worsen the budget imbalances (deficits) thus </em><em>constrain fiscal consolidation efforts in Kenya. The study also demonstrated that </em><em>budget imbalance dynamics in Kenya could partly be explained by the Olivera-Tanzi proposition. </em><em>The study rec</em><em>ommends measures to reduce the fiscal imbalance gap in Kenya, which include controlling both supply and demand side inflationary pressure and dealing with rent seeking behavior in the public sector.</em></p>

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