Analysis of Budget Imbalance Dynamics in Kenya

Kenya needs substantial and sustained fiscal consolidation to create fiscal space for financing the government’s election pledges, the Vision 2030 development projects, and sustainable development goals. However, the government has found it hard to sustain its fiscal consolidation attempts. This study investigates the fiscal consolidation constraints that act through the budget imbalance dynamics in Kenya using the Olivera-Tanzi effect approach. The study covers the period 2000-2015 using time series data and employs three Auto-regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) error correction models in the analysis. The study showed that a rise in the general price levels in the economy, adjustment of minimum wages, rise in perceived levels of corruption in the public sector and the political budget cycles (occurrence of a general election) worsen the budget imbalances (deficits) thus constrain fiscal consolidation efforts in Kenya. The study also demonstrated that budget imbalance dynamics in Kenya could partly be explained by the Olivera-Tanzi proposition. The study recommends measures to reduce the fiscal imbalance gap in Kenya, which include controlling both supply and demand side inflationary pressure and dealing with rent seeking behavior in the public sector.

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Does government spending reduce poverty in Nigeria? Evidence from Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag Specification.

e-Journal Ekonomi Bisnis dan Akuntansi ◽

10.19184/ejeba.v7i2.17322 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 7 (2) ◽

pp. 86

Author(s):

Olufemi Samuel Adegboyo

Keyword(s):

Government Spending ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Capital Expenditure ◽

Transportation Cost ◽

Series Data ◽

Distributed Lag ◽

Auto Regressive ◽

The Government ◽

Transfer Capital ◽

The Impact

This paper analyses the impact of government spending on poverty reducing in Nigeria for the period 1981 to 2017 making use of annual time series data. The study employs the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. The result of the study revealed that economic service recurrent expenditure (ESRX), social and community recurrent expenditure (SCSRX), Transfer recurrent expenditure (TRX) reduces poverty while transfer capital expenditure (TCX) and administrative recurrent expenditure (ADRX) escalate poverty. Consequently, the study recommends that Government should embark on provision of food subsidies, subsidies farm input for farmers, subsidies transportation cost. Furthermore, government should endeavor to pay pensioners all their entitlements including gratuities as at when due without any delay, government should also be giving stipend to the unemployed and disabled, more poverty alleviating programs should be organize Also, the huge cost of maintaining the government should be reduced by reducing the numbers of political appointees to a reasonable size.

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Determinants of Private Investment in Pakistan

Journal of Economic Impact ◽

10.52223/jei0301212 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 2 (3) ◽

pp. 86-92

Author(s):

Muhammad Suleman ◽

Abdur Rehman ◽

Haroon Javaid

Keyword(s):

Growth Rate ◽

Public Sector ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Trade Openness ◽

Private Investment ◽

Series Data ◽

Distributed Lag ◽

Long Run ◽

Domestic Savings ◽

Short Run

Private investment has a significant relation with the economic growth of the country. It plays an important role in reduction of unemployment and poverty by promoting efficiency and competition among the firms. This study is an attempt to investigate the determinants of private investment in Pakistan. For this purpose, time-series data is utilized for the period 1974-2013. The ARDL (Auto Regressive-Distributed Lag) modeling technique of co-integration was employed to estimate the short-run and long-run determinants of private investment in Pakistan. Empirical findings of this study indicated that in the short-run private investment in Pakistan is determined by the growth rate of GDP, public sector investment, and domestic savings. While in the long run it is determined by the official exchange rate, the growth rate of GDP, public sector investment, domestic savings, trade openness, and interest rate. The results also revealed that in the case of Pakistan different political regimes (democratic, non-democratic) have no significance in the determination of private investment. Stability tests of CUSUM and (CUSUMSQ) (Cumulative Sum Control Chart) were performed in this study. These tests indicated a stable, long run as well as short-run structural stability of the model.

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Developing Public Sector Growth through E-Government and Democracy A Detailed Analysis

10.46532/jebm.20200702 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 8-15

Author(s):

Taufiq Gutawa

Keyword(s):

Public Sector ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Series Data ◽

Control Variables ◽

Review Section ◽

The Future ◽

Efficiency And Effectiveness ◽

Asean Countries ◽

The Government ◽

The Right

Public sector growth refers to the growth and development in the government-controlled departments and establishments. The industries and different sectors of a country that come under the influence of government come under public sector. E-government is actually the employment of innovative techniques and practices while performing several operations for the facilitation of citizens by the government. The core motive of using e-government practices to ensure the efficiency and effectiveness of those operations that are being performed for the public. Democracy refers to the right of citizens of a particular country in order to choose the leaders or government of their own choice based on the decision of majority. This study investigates promoting public sector growth through E-government adoption and democracy in ASEAN countries. Transparency rate and population factor are two important control variables which are induced in this research study. In the literature review section, previous related research studies have been indicated. The time-series data has been collected about concerned variables regarding ASEAN countries. The analyses portion includes unit root IPS, Pedroni cointegration and FMOLS regression and concluded that the hypotheses proposed by the researcher are accepted along with some share of impact of control variables. The researcher concluded that E-government and democracy positively impact public sector growth of ASEAN countries. At the last of this study, implications, limitations and future recommendations are also present. The implications include various theoretical, practical and policy making contexts. The future recommendations can be used by the future researchers so that they can increase the scope of their researches.

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Banking system stability: A prerequisite for financing the Sustainable Development Goals in Nigeria

Banks and Bank Systems ◽

10.21511/bbs.16(2).2021.10 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 16 (2) ◽

pp. 103-118

Author(s):

Agatha Amadi ◽

Kehinde A. Adetiloye ◽

Abiola Babajide ◽

Idimmachi Amadi

Keyword(s):

Sustainable Development ◽

Sustainable Development Goals ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Banking System ◽

System Stability ◽

Series Data ◽

Small Scale ◽

The Sustainable Development ◽

Distributed Lag ◽

Development Goals

The banking system, which has been the fulcrum of funding for Nigeria’s economy, is plagued by instability in the face of a growing amount of non-performing loans. This is examined in the current milieu of the need for funding the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Using a number of proxies for SDGs 8 and 9, annual time series data covering 1992 to 2019 were used with variables such as GDP per capita, commercial banks’ loans to small-scale enterprises, banking system stability indicators and liquid assets to total assets of banks. The study utilized the Autoregressive Distributed Lag. Findings showed that banking system stability has a significant positive effect on funding the SDGs 8 and 9 beyond the five per cent level of significance within the study period. Non-performing loans remained negative throughout the study. The result suggests that banking stability would enhance funding of the SDGs, and banks would be stable if they finance the SDGs. The policy implication explains the importance of banks actively pursuing opportunities to build sustainable enterprises and developing strategies that will enable their core banking business to be more venture-driven rather than consumer-oriented. In conclusion, there is a need to completely eliminate or reduce the quantum of non-performing loans from the system and establish a regulatory framework that will facilitate its expected role of intermediation in the economy profitably and successfully. AcknowledgmentThe authors would like to appreciate Covenant University for financial support to publish this paper.

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Does government spending reduce poverty in Nigeria? Evidence from Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag Specification.

Ekonomi Bisnis ◽

10.17977/um042v25i1p14-25 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 25 (1) ◽

pp. 14

Author(s):

Olufemi Samuel Adegboyo

Keyword(s):

Government Spending ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Capital Expenditure ◽

Transportation Cost ◽

Series Data ◽

Distributed Lag ◽

Auto Regressive ◽

The Government ◽

Transfer Capital ◽

The Impact

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Crowding Out of Private Sector in Tanzania: Government Expenditure, Domestic Borrowing, and Lending Rates

Emerging Economy Studies ◽

10.1177/2394901520913653 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 6 (1) ◽

pp. 123-135 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Enock Mwakalila

Keyword(s):

Private Sector ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Government Expenditure ◽

Series Data ◽

Private Sector Development ◽

Distributed Lag ◽

Long Run ◽

Lending Rates ◽

The Government ◽

The Impact

This study empirically analyzes the impact of government expenditure and domestic borrowing on credit to the private sector in Tanzania by increasing lending rates. Quarterly time series data are collected from 2004 to 2018. Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model estimation with a bound cointegration test is used to establish the short- and long-run relationships, and the results are subjected to diagnostic tests for robustness. The result shows that government expenditure and domestic borrowing crowd out credit to the private sector by increasing the lending rate in the long run. This calls for the Tanzanian government to reduce some of its deficit spending and domestic borrowing, and instead look for another way to increase the tax revenue using loans from external sources to fund its budget deficit. Also, the study recommends that the government should put more effort on improving private sector development by making the country an easy place to do business, which in turn will increase the tax base through corporate tax and income tax from business employees.

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Impact of Taxation on Foreign Direct Investment: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan

Pakistan Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences ◽

10.52131/pjhss.2021.0901.0108 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 (1) ◽

pp. 10-18

Author(s):

Muhammad Nouman Shafiq ◽

Liu Hua ◽

Muhammad Azhar Bhatti ◽

Seemab Gillani

Keyword(s):

Foreign Direct Investment ◽

Direct Investment ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Developing Economies ◽

Trade Openness ◽

Vital Role ◽

Series Data ◽

Fdi Inflows ◽

Distributed Lag ◽

The Government

Foreign direct investment plays a vital role in promoting economic growth, especially for developing economies. It causes improvement in the different sectors such as education, healthcare, manufacturing industries, and creates more jobs. The speed of FDI inflows has been increasing in Pakistan each year. In order to attract more FDI, many countries try to reframe their tax policies by introducing different tax incentives such as tax holidays, investment allowances, exemptions, deductions etc. The purpose of the present paper is to find the implication of taxation in the decision of FDI inflows in Pakistan. Time series data is used spanning over 1985 to 2020. The data was obtained from two sources: the “World Development Indicator” (WDI) and “Economic Survey of Pakistan”. “Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag” (ARDL) and “Error Correction Model” (ECM) techniques are used for empirical analysis. The study concludes that low taxes motivate foreign investors' investment contribution and the long-run relationship between taxes and FDI in Pakistan. Other control variables, including GDP growth, trade openness and exchange rate, positively impact FDI. It is suggested that decision-makers should direct policies to reduce the taxes to welcome FDI in Pakistan. In this regard, the government needs to reconsider its priorities while making policies favouring FDI.

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Development expenditure, fiscal consolidation and public revenue in India

International Journal of Accounting and Economics Studies ◽

10.14419/ijaes.v5i1.7018 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 5 (1) ◽

pp. 16

Author(s):

Subramanya Venkataraman ◽

Arabi Urmi

Keyword(s):

Time Series Data ◽

Government Expenditure ◽

Well Being ◽

Series Data ◽

Fiscal Consolidation ◽

Long Run ◽

Development Expenditure ◽

Short Run ◽

Public Revenue ◽

The Government

Following challenges with increasing fiscal deficit, the Government of India adopted the path of fiscal consolidation with the sole intention of reducing fiscal and other deficits. However, in the drive to reduce government expenditure, it is necessary to be cautious of how it affects expenditures such as development expenditure that are very essential to the well-being of people. This study therefore investigated how fiscal consolidation and Public revenue affect development expenditure in India using time series data from 1977-2015 and the ARDL model. The study found that, in both the short run and long run, public revenue had a positive significant impact on development expenditure whiles fiscal consolidation had a negative significant impact on development expenditure. The study therefore recommended that in our attempt to attain fiscal consolidation, care must be taken not to abandon development expenditure which has serious effects on the well-being of people.

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An Empirical Assessment of the Effect of Taxes and Interest Rate on Economic Growth in Jordan: An Application of Dynamic Autoregressive-Distributed Lag

Research in World Economy ◽

10.5430/rwe.v11n3p92 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (3) ◽

pp. 92

Author(s):

Bashar Younis Alkhawaldeh ◽

Suraya Mahmood ◽

Aminu Hassan Jakada

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Interest Rate ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Series Data ◽

Negative Effects ◽

Distributed Lag ◽

Long Run ◽

Capital Ratios ◽

The Government ◽

The Interest Rate

This study aims to examine the effect of taxes and interest rate on economic growth in Jordan by employing the time series data from 1970-2019. Furthermore, this study applies the Augmented Dickey-Fuller, Phillips-Perron, Saikonen and Lütkepohl and Zivot-Andrews test of unit root. Moreover, the study uses cointegration test developed by Gregory and Hansen to investigate the long-run relationship and the dynamic autoregressive distributive lags were used for the estimation result. The long run and short-run estimates reveal the positive and negative effects of taxes and the interest rate on economic growth respectively. While the 1997 Asian financial crisis and 2015 food crisis show a negative effect on economic growth. Based on the findings, the study recommends that the government authorities in Jordan should lower the interest rate that will increase the investment in order to have faster economic growth. The government should urgently plan to broaden the tax base to stimulate economic growth in Jordan. Regulators should encourage banks to start raising capital immediately to strengthen capital ratios well above prudential norms, and prepare schemes for public recapitalization and, where appropriate, public purchases of non-performing assets. The next policy fulfils the government's need to enhance agricultural productivity through better technology to ensure long-term food security and reduce poverty, as well as help to boost economic growth.

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Exchange Rate Variability and Manufacturing Sector Performance in Ghana: Evidence from Cointegration Analysis

Issues in Economics and Business ◽

10.5296/ieb.v2i1.9626 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 2 (1) ◽

pp. 1 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Abdallah Abdul-Mumuni

Keyword(s):

Exchange Rate ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Manufacturing Sector ◽

Cointegration Analysis ◽

Series Data ◽

Telecommunication System ◽

Exchange Rate Variability ◽

Distributed Lag ◽

Sector Performance ◽

The Government

This study examined the effect of exchange rate variability on manufacturing sector performance in Ghana. Using time series data from the period 1986-2013 and employing the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach, the empirical results show that there exists both a short as well as long run relationship between exchange rate and manufacturing sector performance. Thus, in Ghana as the exchange rate appreciates, the manufacturing sector performance improves and as it depreciates, the sector is adversely affected. In view of this, it is recommended that policy should be put in place to regulate the importation of goods that could be locally produced so as to improve the performance of the manufacturing sector. In addition, the government should ensure that there is regular electricity supply, good roads, water and a reliable telecommunication system so that the manufacturing sector can perform effectively and efficiently in order to achieve a considerable rate of economic growth.

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