Influence of systemic banking crisis and currency crisis on the relationship of export and economic growth

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 82-110
Author(s):  
Syed Ali Raza ◽  
Mohd Zaini Abd Karim
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Financial Crises ◽  
Currency Crises ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Banking Crises ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose This study aims to investigate the influence of systemic banking crises, currency crises and global financial crisis on the relationship between export and economic growth in China by using the annual time series data from the period of 1972 to 2014. Design/methodology/approach The Johansen and Jeuuselius’ cointegration, auto regressive distributed lag bound testing cointegration, Gregory and Hansen’s cointegration and pooled ordinary least square techniques with error correction model have been used. Findings Results indicate the positive and significant effect of export of goods and services on economic growth in both long and short run, whereas the negative influence of systemic banking crises and currency crises over economic growth is observed. It is also concluded that the impact of export of goods and service on economic growth becomes insignificant in the presence of systemic banking crises and currency crises. The currency crises effect the influence of export on economic growth to a higher extent compared to systemic banking crises. Surprisingly, the export in the period of global financial crises has a positive and significant influence over economic growth in China, which conclude that the global financial crises did not drastically affect the export-growth nexus. Originality/value This paper makes a unique contribution to the literature with reference to China, being a pioneering attempt to investigate the effects of systemic banking crises and currency crises on the relationship of export and economic growth by using long-time series data and applying more rigorous econometric techniques.

FDI and economic growth: empirical evidence from Pakistan

2016 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 63-76 ◽  
Author(s):  
Naqeeb Ur Rehman
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Literacy Rate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Low Level ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between FDI and economic growth. Two models have been used to analyse the time series data on Pakistan from 1970 to 2012. This paper contributes to the existing literature by examining the different empirical methods to estimate the relationship between FDI and economic growth. The vector error correction model (VECM) results suggest that FDI depends on the economic growth but this relationship is not true vice versa. The second model showed that FDI, human capital and exports are important factors of economic growth. However, the negative relationship between interactive variables (FDI and human capital) and economic growth indicates that low level of human capital affect the economic growth of Pakistan. Design/methodology/approach – Used time series data (1970-2012) for empirical analysis. Findings – The VECM results suggest that FDI depends on the economic growth but this relationship is not true vice versa. The second model showed that FDI, human capital and exports are important factors of economic growth. However, the negative relationship between interactive variables (FDI and human capital) and economic growth indicates that low level of human capital affect the economic growth of Pakistan. Research limitations/implications – The limitations of this empirical paper are as follows: it would be better to use secondary school enrolment (per cent) to measure human capital instead adult literacy rate. Similarly, the non-availability of R & D data on Pakistan limited the scope of the paper to measure the role of absorptive capacity of domestic and its relationship with FDI. The results of this paper are specifically related to Pakistan and cannot be generalized to other countries. Practical implications – This empirical study implies that Pakistan should improve its economic growth. The robust policies are required to increase the literacy rate of the country. Higher human capital will attract more FDI into the economy and may reduce the unemployment. This would increase the national output of the country and their national income level. Presently, Pakistan is going through war on terror and foreign firms are reluctant to invest. A stable and secure business environment will ultimately inject foreign direct investment into Pakistan. Originality/value – This paper is first time analyse the time series data to explore the relationship between FDI and economic growth. A new approach has been used called VECM.

Influence of Systemic Banking Crises and Currency Crises on the FDI-Growth Nexus: Evidence from China

2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 572-589 ◽  
Author(s):  
Syed Ali Raza ◽  
Mohd Zaini Abd Karim
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Crises ◽  
Currency Crises ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Banking Crises ◽  
Negative Influence ◽  
Series Data ◽  
The Impact

This study investigates the influence of systemic banking crises, currency crises and global financial crisis on the relationship of foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth in China by using the annual time series data from the period of 1982 to 2014. The Johansen and Juselius (J–J) cointegration, autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound testing cointegration approach, and Gregory and Hansen’s (1996) cointegration approach with structural break confirm the valid long-run relationship between considered variables. Results indicate the positive and significant effect of FDI on economic growth. Whereas the negative influence of systemic banking crises and currency crises over economic growth is observed. It is also concluded that the impact of FDI on economic growth becomes insignificant in the presence of systemic banking crises and currency crises. The systemic banking crises effects the influence of export on economic growth more as compared to currency crises. Surprisingly, the export in the period of global financial crises has a positive and significant influence over economic growth in China, which conclude that the global financial crises did not drastically affect the export-growth nexus.

CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH – A CASE STUDY OF PAKISTAN

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 139-164
Author(s):  
Saddam Hussain ◽  
Chunjiao Yu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Relationship Of

This paper explores the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Pakistan, applying techniques of co-integration and Hsiao’s version of Granger causality, using time series data over the period 1965-2019. Time series data of macroeconomic determi-nants – i.e. energy growth, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) growth and population growth shows a positive correlation with economic growth while there is no correlation founded be-tween economic growth and inflation rate or Consumer Price Index (CPI). The general conclu-sion of empirical results is that economic growth causes energy consumption.

An Empirical Analysis on the Relationship between Transport Infrastructure and Economic Growth in Tianjin

2012 ◽  
Vol 253-255 ◽  
pp. 278-281
Author(s):  
Xiao Zhe Meng
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Transport Infrastructure ◽  
Integration Theory ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Positive Correlations ◽  
The Relationship

Transport infrastructure makes important contribution to economic growth. At the same time, the economic growth provides support to the transport infrastructure. Based on the co-integration theory and Granger casualty analysis, using time series data in Tianjin from 1978 to 2010, empirically analyze the co-integration relationship and Granger causality between the index of all kinds of transport infrastructure and the GDP in Tianjin. Research shows that there are positive correlations between the length of road, railway, quay line and GDP. The length of road, railway and quay line is the Granger cause of GDP. However, GDP is not the Granger cause of transport infrastructure.

scholarly journals IMPACT OF TRADE ON ECONOMIC GROWTH OF PAKISTAN: AN ARDL TO CO-INTEGRATION APPROACH

2016 ◽  
Vol 55 (2) ◽  
pp. 47-58
Author(s):  
Nooreen Mujahid ◽  
Azeema Begum ◽  
Muhammad Noman
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Policy Option ◽  
Stationary Time Series ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Import And Export ◽  
The Relationship

This paper explores the relationship between export growth and economic growth in the case of Pakistan by employing time series data for the period 1971- 2013. This study has incorporated variables like GDP (Gross Domestic Product) exports, imports and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). We have applied ARDL to co-integration and Error Correction Model (ECM). The study provides the evidence of stationary time series variables, the existence of the long - run relationship between them, and the result of ECM revealed short rum equilibrium adjustment. Pakistan has many options for enhancing the export of the country. There is a dire need to minimize trade barriers and restrictions such as import and export quotas. Government of Pakistan had introduced Structural Reforms for liberalization, privatization and de-regulation which will actually shifted the trend of trade at a significant level in the end of 1980s. Low levels of interest rate can help exportable industries in which investments are needed to promote and enhance the exports. Stable exchange rate is the first and the best policy option for increasing the export and managing the imports. There is a cause and effect relationship between exchange rate and FDI. Pakistan has to immediately find the policies and processes that support logistics and facilitates trade.

scholarly journals An Econometric Analysis on Remittance and Economic Growth in Bangladesh

2020 ◽  
pp. 214-218
Author(s):  
Md Shafiul Islam
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causal Link ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
External Finance ◽  
The Relationship

In Bangladesh, migrant worker’s remittances constitute one of the most significant sources of external finance. This paper investigates the existence of relation between remittance inflow and GDP and the causal link between them in Bangladesh by employing the Granger causality test under a VECM framework. Using time series data over a 38 year period, we found that growth in remittances does lead to economic growth in Bangladesh. In addition to the relationship, this paper also points out some issues that are working as impediments in getting remittance and give some recommendations to overcome those impediments.

Non-Indian aid and growth nexus in Bhutan

2015 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 117-129
Author(s):  
Jigme Nidup
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Foreign Aid ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of Non-Indian foreign aid on economic growth. In addition, this paper also investigates the importance of governance, policy and democratic institution in fostering economic growth. Planned development activities in Bhutan are mostly funded through external assistance, particularly from India. Bhutan also receives assistance from other bilateral and multilateral countries besides India. Design/methodology/approach – This study adopts the autoregressive distributed lag approach to cointegration using time-series data from 1982 to 2012. To ensure stationarity of data, the unit root test is conducted. Necessary diagnostic tests are also performed to confirm that the model does not violate regression assumptions. Findings – Findings indicate that Non-Indian foreign aid, governance and democracy are detrimental to economic growth. Policy and investment is found insignificant determinant. However, labour force and technology are found fostering economic growth. Research limitations/implications – Less number of observations restrained detailed analysis like the use of interactive terms between aid and governance, aid and policy to see its actual impact. Data on Indian aid could not be sourced from any documents. Those available were found only for few years restricting time series analysis. Originality/value – This study explored the impact of various determinants on economic growth in Bhutan. These findings provide useful insights for policymakers in Bhutan to make necessary decisions. The analysis also suggests future ground for research to those scholars and researchers.

scholarly journals The Effect of Foreign Direct Investment on Indonesia’s Economic Growth

2016 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 18-24
Author(s):  
Abdul Hadi Ilman
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Linear Regression Method ◽  
Domestic Investment ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

The relationship of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on economic growth is one of the most debatable topic in economic. This study is aiming to investigate the impact of FDI on economic growth in Indonesia. This research using linear regression method which base on time series data from 1981 to 2012. A Major finding is there is no special relationship between FDI and economic growth, both directly and indirectly. Moreover, FDI does crowd-in the domestic investment and is no significance evidence to prove that FDI is more efficient on economic growth than domestic investment.

scholarly journals The Dynamics of Credit Procyclicality and Stability of Macroeconomics in Indonesia

2021 ◽  
pp. 351
Author(s):  
Ni Putu Nina Eka Lestari ◽  
Made Kembar Sri Budhi ◽  
I Ketut Sudama ◽  
Ni Nyoman Reni Suasih ◽  
I Nyoman Taun
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Financial System ◽  
The Other ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Credit Growth ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Relationship

Credit growth is one of the important indicators of the financial system that can drive the country economic growth, but on the other hand credit growth can also cause risks in the financial system due to the economic actors’ moral hazard. The purpose of this research is to analyze the credit procyclicality pattern and economic growth in Indonesia. In addition, this study aims to determine the relationship pattern between credit and some macroeconomic variables. The method used is VECM with quarterly time series data during 1998 until 2016. The analysis shows that credit growth and economic growth have positive causality. This shows pro-cyclicality between credit and economic growth in Indonesia. However, in the long run this pattern shows a downward trend although still positive and permanent, which means that excessive credit growth can also lead to a decline in economic growth.

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