Applying the Fama and French three-factor model to analyze risk/reward in the Spanish REITs: an ARDL approach

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhenyu Su ◽  
Paloma Taltavull
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Factor Model ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Size Factor ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Fama And French ◽  
Three Factor

Purpose This paper aims to analyse the risk and excess returns of the Spanish real estate investment trusts (S-REITs) using various methods, though focusing primarily on the Fama-French three-factor (FF3) model, over the period from 2007Q3 to 2017Q2. Design/methodology/approach The autoregressive distributed lag model is used for the empirical analysis to test long-term stable relationships between variables. Findings The findings indicate that the FF3 model is suitable for the S-REITs market, better explaining the S-REITs’ returns variation than the traditional single-index capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and the Carhart four-factor model. The empirical evidence is reasonably consistent with the FF3 model; the values for the market, size and value are highly statistically significant over the analysis period, with 68.7% variation in S-REITs’ returns explained by the model. In the long run, the market factor has less explanatory power than the size and value factors; the positive long-term multiplier of the size factor indicates that small S-REIT companies have higher returns, along with higher risk, while the negative multiplier of the value indicator suggests that S-REITs portfolios prefer to allocate growth REITs with low book-to-market ratios. The empirical findings from a modified FF3 model, which additionally incorporates Spain’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate, two consumer price index (CPI) macro-factors and three dummy variables, indicates that GDP growth rate and CPI also affect S-REITs’ yields, while investment funds with capital calls have a small influence on S-REITs’ returns. Practical implications The regression results of the standard and extended FF3 model can help researchers understand S-REITs’ risk and return through a general stock pattern. Potential investors are given more information to consider the new Spanish investment vehicle before making a decision. Originality/value The paper uses standard techniques but applies them for the first time to the S-REIT market.

scholarly journals Assessing the Fiscal Sustainability of Government Finances in European Countries

2013 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 87-93
Author(s):  
Yuriy Melnykov
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Statistical Approach ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate

This paper analyses the fiscal sustainability of government finances in the 27 EU countries and Norway using an empirical, statistical approach and ADF tests for a unit root in the time series of the differences between the GDP growth rate and the long-term interest rate, and the primary balance.

Long-term prior return patterns in stock and sector returns in India

2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 192-210
Author(s):  
Sanjay Sehgal ◽  
Sakshi Jain
Keyword(s):  
Asset Pricing ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Factor Model ◽  
Size Factor ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Portfolio Managers ◽  
Sector Returns

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyze long-term prior return patterns in stock returns for India. Design/methodology/approach – The methodology involves portfolio generation based on company characteristics and long-term prior return (24-60 months). The characteristic sorted portfolios are then regressed on risk factors using one factor (capital asset pricing model (CAPM)) and multi-factor model (Fama-French (FF) model and four factor model involving three FF factors and an additional sectoral momentum factor). Findings – After controlling for short-term momentum (up to 12 months) as documented by Sehgal and Jain (2011), the authors observe that weak reversals emerge for the sample stocks. The risk model CAPM fails to account for these long-run prior return patterns. FF three-factor model is able to explain long-term prior return patterns in stock returns with the exception of 36-12-12 strategy. The value factor plays an important role while the size factor does not explain cross-section of average returns. Momentum patterns exist in long-term sector returns, which are stronger for long-term portfolio formation periods. Further, the authors construct sector factor and observe that prior returns patterns in stock returns are partially absorbed by this factor. Research limitations/implications – The findings are relevant for investment analysts and portfolio managers who are continuously tracking global markets, including India, in pursuit of extra normal returns. Originality/value – The study contributes to the asset pricing and behavioral literature from emerging markets.

Equity fund performance

2016 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 359-376 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bin Liu ◽  
Amalia Di Iorio ◽  
Ashton De Silva
Keyword(s):  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Fund Performance ◽  
Idiosyncratic Volatility ◽  
Size Factor ◽  
Momentum Effect ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fund Managers ◽  
Equity Funds ◽  
Fama And French ◽  
Fund Size

Purpose This paper aims to investigate whether idiosyncratic volatility is priced in returns of equity funds while controlling for fund size and return momentum. Design/methodology/approach Following Fama and French (1993), an idiosyncratic volatility mimicking factor and a fund-size factor are constructed. The pricing ability of this idiosyncratic volatility mimicking factor is investigated in the context of Carhart (1997). Findings Idiosyncratic volatility is an important pricing factor even when controlling for fund size and momentum. In addition, idiosyncratic volatility is strongly and positively associated with the momentum effect. Further, when controlling for the association between the momentum effect and idiosyncratic volatility, the explanatory power of the momentum factor almost disappears, which suggests the pricing of idiosyncratic volatility mediates momentum and returns. Originality/value These findings imply that both the idiosyncratic volatility factor and the fund-size factor should not be ignored by fund managers when evaluating the performance of the equity funds.

Overreaction evidence from large-cap stocks

2014 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 310-325 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tibebe Abebe Assefa ◽  
Omar A. Esqueda ◽  
Emilios C. Galariotis
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Factor Model ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
Past Performance ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Multifactor Models ◽  
Contrarian Strategy ◽  
Fama And French ◽  
Investment Portfolios ◽  
Three Factor

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to assess the performance of a contrarian investment strategy focusing on frequently traded large-cap US stocks. Previous criticisms that losers’ gains are not due to overreaction but due to their tendency to be thinly traded and smaller-sized firms than winners are addressed. Design/methodology/approach – Portfolios based on past performance are constructed and it is examined whether contrarian returns exist. The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), Fama and French three-factor model and the Carhart’s (1997) momentum portfolio are used to test whether excess returns are feasible in a contrarian strategy. Findings – The results show an asymmetric performance following portfolio formation. Although both, winners and losers portfolios, have gains during holding periods, losers outperform winners at all times, and with a differential of up to 29.2 per cent 36 months after portfolio formation. Furthermore, the loser and the winner portfolios’ alphas are significant, suggesting that the CAPM and the multifactor models are unable to explain return differentials between winners and losers. Our evidence supports two main conclusions. First, stock market overreaction still holds for a sample of large firms. Second, this is robust to the Fama and French’s (1993, 1996) three-factor model and Carhart’s (1997) momentum portfolio. Findings emphasize the relevance of a contrarian strategy when rebalancing investment portfolios. Practical implications – Portfolio managers can improve stock returns by selling past winners and buying previous loser large-cap US stocks. Originality/value – This paper is the first, to the authors’ knowledge, to examine frequently traded large-cap US stocks to avoid infrequent trading and size concerns.

scholarly journals Taxation, government spending and economic growth: The case of Bulgaria

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 255-266
Author(s):  
G. Ganchev ◽  
◽  
I. Todorov ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

The objective of this article is to estimate the impact of three fiscal instruments (direct taxes, indirect taxes, and government expenditure) on Bulgaria’s economic growth. The study employs an autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) and Eurostat quarterly seasonally adjusted data for the period 1999–2020. Four control variables (the shares of gross capital formation, household consumption, and exports in GDP as well as the economic growth in the euro area) are included in the model to account for the influence of non-fiscal factors on Bulgaria’s real GDP growth rate. The empirical results indicate a long-run equilibrium relationship between Bulgaria’s economic growth and the independent variables in the ARDL. In the short term, Bulgaria’s real GDP growth rate is affected by its own past values and the previous values of the shares of direct tax revenue, exports, government consumption, and indirect tax revenue in GDP. In the long term, Bulgaria’s economic growth is influenced by its own previous values and the past values of the share of household consumption in GDP and the euro area’s real GDP growth rate. Fiscal instruments can be used to stabilize Bulgaria’s growth in the short run but they are neutral in the long run. The direct tax revenue, government consumption, and indirect tax revenue are highly effective and can be used as tools for invigorating and stabilizing Bulgaria’s economic growth in the short run. However, in the long term, the real GDP growth rate can be hastened only by encouraging domestic demand (final consumption expenditure of households) and promoting exports. This research cannot answer the question of whether flat income taxation stabilizes the economy or not, since it does not separate the impact of tax rate changes from the influence of tax base modifications.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic factors, firm characteristics and financial performance

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 142-168 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chinedu Francis Egbunike ◽  
Chinedu Uchenna Okerekeoti
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Financial Performance ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Manufacturing Firms ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Firm Characteristics ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore the interrelationship between macroeconomic factors, firm characteristics and financial performance of quoted manufacturing firms in Nigeria. Specifically, the study investigates the effect of interest rate, inflation rate, exchange rate and the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate, while the firm characteristics were size, leverage and liquidity. The dependent variable financial performance is measured as return on assets (ROA). Design/methodology/approach The study used the ex post facto research design. The population comprised all quoted manufacturing firms on the Nigerian Stock Exchange. The sample was restricted to companies in the consumer goods sector, selected using non-probability sampling method. The study used multiple linear regression as the method of validating the hypotheses. Findings The study finds no significant effect for interest rate and exchange rate, but a significant effect for inflation rate and GDP growth rate on ROA. Second, the firm characteristics showed that firm size, leverage and liquidity were significant. Practical implications The study has implications for regulators and policy makers in formulating policy decisions. In addition, managers may better understand the interplay between macroeconomic factors, firm characteristics and profitability of firms. Originality/value Few studies have addressed the interplay of macroeconomic factors and firm characteristics in determining the profitability of manufacturing firms in the country and developing countries in general.

The role of efficiency in capital asset pricing: a research on Nasdaq technology sector

2020 ◽  
Vol 46 (11) ◽  
pp. 1479-1493
Author(s):  
Hakan Aygoren ◽  
Emrah Balkan
Keyword(s):  
Asset Pricing ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Factor Model ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Efficiency Factor ◽  
Capital Asset Pricing ◽  
Capital Asset ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Three Factor

PurposeThe aim of this study is to investigate the role of efficiency in capital asset pricing. The paper explores the impact of a four-factor model that involves an efficiency factor on the returns of Nasdaq technology firms.Design/methodology/approachThe paper relies on data of 147 firms from July 2007 to June 2017 to examine the impact of efficiency on stock returns. The performances of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), Fama–French three-factor model and the proposed four-factor model are evaluated based on the time series regression method. The parameters such as the GRS F-statistic and adjusted R² are used to compare the relative performances of all models.FindingsThe results show that all factors of the models are found to be valid in asset pricing. Also, the paper provides evidence that the explanatory power of the proposed four-factor model outperforms the explanatory power of the CAPM and Fama–French three-factor model.Originality/valueUnlike most asset pricing studies, this paper presents a new asset pricing model by adding the efficiency factor to the Fama–French three-factor model. It is documented that the efficiency factor increases the predictive ability of stock returns. Evidence implies that investors consider efficiency as one of the main factors in pricing their assets.

scholarly journals THE FOUR-FACTOR MODEL AND STOCK RETURNS IN BANGLADESH

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 133-149
Author(s):  
Muhammad Saifuddin Khan ◽  
Md. Miad Uddin Fahim
Keyword(s):  
Asset Pricing ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Factor Model ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Expected Return ◽  
Market Factors ◽  
Fama And French ◽  
Three Factor

For determining the expected return, and asset pricing, CAPM (Capital asset pricing model) is being used dominantly grounded on only the market (systematic) risk-factor though several anomalies have been revealed in this model. Fama and French (1993) have addressed those anomalies and developed the Three-factor model by combining size and value factors besides market factors. Over time, Carhart (1997) has further developed a model addressing momentum factor besides the three factors of Fama and French (1993) which is known as the Carhart four-factor model. Though several kinds of research have been conducted on the CAPM and three-factor model, little works have been accompanied by the Carhart four-factor model in an evolving market like Bangladesh. The goal of this work is to examine the validity of the Carhart four-factor model and examine the loftier explanatory power in Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE). From the regression analysis of the Carhart model, we have found that market, size, value, and momentum explain the excess stock return. This study indicates that the Carhart model has the lowest GRS F-statistic, highest adjusted R-squared, and lowest Sharpe ratio in contrast to the CAPM and three-factor model which indicates the superior explanatory power and statistical validity of the Carhart model. JEL Classification Codes: G12, G13, G14.

scholarly journals Stern review on the economics of climate change: implications for Bangladesh

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 100-117 ◽  
Author(s):  
Apurba Roy ◽  
Mohammed Ziaul Haider
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
The World ◽  
Stern Review ◽  
Cent Level ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of climate change on economic development in Bangladesh. More specifically, the research aims to figure out the influence of climate change on gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate related to different sectors such as agriculture, forest, water, health and infrastructure. It also attempts to explore the effect of climate change on the coastal economy of Bangladesh. Design/methodology/approach A set of statistical and econometric techniques, including descriptive and correlation analysis and time series regression model, was applied to address the objective of the research. Sector-wise time series economic data were collected from the World Bank for the period between 1971 and 2013. Climate data were received from the Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council online database for the period between 1948 and 2013. Findings The results from the statistical analysis show that climate variables such as temperature and rainfall have changed between 1948 and 2013 in the context of Bangladesh. The econometric regression analysis demonstrates that an increase by 1°C of annual mean temperature leads to a decrease in the GDP growth rate by 0.44 per cent on average, which is statistically significant at the 5 per cent level. On the other hand, the estimated coefficients of agriculture, industry, services, urbanization and export are positively associated with GDP growth rate, and these are statistically significant at the 1 per cent level. Sector-wise correlation analysis provides statistical evidence that climate change is negatively associated with various sectors, such as agriculture, forest, human health and arable land. In contrast, it has a positive relation to water access and electricity consumption. Analysis of coastal regions shows that climate change negatively affects the local economic sectors of the coastal zone of the country. Originality/value Although this study has received significant insight from the world-renowned research publication “The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review”, there is a dearth of research on the economic impact of climate change in the context of Bangladesh. The findings of the paper provide deep insight into and comprehensive views of policy makers on the impact of climate change on economic growth and various sectors in Bangladesh.

TESTS OF THE CAPITAL ASSET PRICES AND THE FAMA AND FRENCH THREE-FACTOR MODEL FOR HANOI SECURITIES MARKET

2010 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 15-22
Author(s):  
Hieu Quang Kim ◽  
Hung Thanh Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Asset Prices ◽  
Factor Model ◽  
Securities Market ◽  
Rate Of Return ◽  
Size Factor ◽  
Capital Asset ◽  
Fama And French ◽  
The One ◽  
Three Factor ◽  
Market Factor

This study tests the Fama-French three-factor model for Hanoi securities market, HASTC to investigate the influences of market factor, size factor and value factor on the rate of return of portfolios. The data for study was collected from 1st July, 2006 to 15th May, 2009. The study found that the three-factor model has high capability to explain the changing of portfolio’s rate of return and the market factor is the one that has the strongest effect on portfolios’ rate of return.

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