Stock prices, exchange rate and interest rate: evidence beyond symmetry

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 2-19 ◽  
Author(s):  
Taufeeq Ajaz ◽  
Md Zulquar Nain ◽  
Bandi Kamaiah ◽  
Naresh Kumar Sharma
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Asset Price ◽  
Asymmetric Reaction ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Financial Variables ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Indian Context

Purpose This paper aims to examine the dynamic interactions between monetary and financial variables in the Indian context. Design/methodology/approach In this paper, the authors have applied a recently developed asymmetric autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model by Shin et al. (2014), for detecting nonlinearities focusing on the long-run and short-run asymmetries among economic variables. Findings The results point toward the presence of asymmetric reaction of stock prices to changes in interest rate and exchange rate in full sample, as well as in pre-crisis. However, no asymmetry was found in the post-crisis period. The results further suggest that tight monetary policies appear to retard the stock prices, more than easy monetary policies that stimulate them. Practical implications The findings of the study can be helpful in understanding the policy transmission mechanism through asset price channel. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study that examines the interactions between monetary and financial variables in the Indian context in an asymmetric framework. The findings of this study are quite interesting and are different from several existing studies in the literature.

scholarly journals The Role of Monetary Policy in Transmission of Asset Prices into Goods Prices

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 143-167
Author(s):  
Sidra Mariyam ◽  
Wasim Shahid Malik
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Asset Prices ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Asset Price ◽  
Price Inflation

Monetary policy in the contemporary world reacts, through short term interest rate, to deviations of inflation rate and output from their respective targets, while asset prices are responded to the extent they contribute to these deviations. This practice significantly affects transmission of asset prices into goods prices, which has serious implications for income distribution. This paper sets the objectives of estimating transmission of asset prices into goods prices and the role of monetary policy in influencing this transmission. In this regard, the paper hypothesizes that inflation rate positively responds to asset prices and this response weakens if interest rate leans against the winds of inflation, output and asset prices. To test these hypotheses, we have estimated different specifications of vector autoregressive (VAR) model and impulse response functions have been found after identifying structural shocks. Data of Pakistan’s economy on inflation rate, large scale manufacturing index, interest rate and asset price index – comprising house prices, stock prices and exchange rate – are used for the time period 2000m01 to 2019m06. We find evidence in support of both hypotheses; asset price inflation positively transmits into goods price inflation and this transmission intensifies if interest rate does not respond to other variables in the model. Moreover, transmission of asset prices into inflation rate, as compared to output, is influenced more by monetary policy. Finally, we find that the transmission of exchange rate and house prices to inflation rate are very much affected by monetary policy while in case of stock prices the influence of policy is moderate.

scholarly journals Business Cycle and The Macroeconomics Performance: Evidence of Malaysia and Indonesia

2015 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 045
Author(s):  
Abdul Qoyum ◽  
M. Miftahussurur ◽  
Al-Amin Matae ◽  
Muhammad Yousuf ◽  
A. Abdurrahman
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Macroeconomic Fluctuations ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Real Gdp

Stable economic growth is the major macroeconomic goal which is all nations seek. Economist and policy makers have been tried to find the ways to sustain and maintain stable economic growth. This paper examines the macroeconomic fluctuations and economic growth in Malaysia and Indonesia and its determinant by using multiple regression models. Five variables were chosen for the model namely variables are Money supply (MS), Industrial production (IP), Interest rate (IR), exchange rate (ER), Consumer price Index (CPI) and stock prices. The study shows that Money supply (MS), Interest rate (IR), exchange rate (ER), and stock prices are among others, the determinant factors of macroeconomic fluctuations in both countries. Specifically, the empirical results reveal that Interest rate (IR), exchange rate (ER), and stock prices has significant contribution to the performance of real GDP in Malaysia while Money supply (MS) and exchange rate (ER) are the main cause of macroeconomic fluctuations in Indonesia. This may be due to the different monetary policies pursued by the two countries. The two countries might have different monetary policy strategies; Malaysia pursues interest rate targeting policy, whereas Indonesia applies inflation rate targeting policy.The study recommends for both countries government policies play an important role in economic performance. Therefore, a careful policy should be the foremost important factor for economic in these nations and the every country in general.

A structural VAR analysis of Islamic financing in Malaysia

2014 ◽  
Vol 31 (4) ◽  
pp. 371-386 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mansor H. Ibrahim ◽  
Fadzlan Sufian
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Price Level ◽  
Interest Rate Risk ◽  
Structural Var ◽  
Real Output ◽  
Islamic Banks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Financial Variables ◽  
Finance Industry

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is evaluate the interrelations between Islamic financing and key economic and financial variables including real output, price level, interest rate and stock prices for the case of Malaysia. Design/methodology/approach – The paper makes use of a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model to discern the influences of key economic and financial variables on the behavior of Islamic financing. Findings – The basic results indicate that Islamic financing responds positively to innovations in real output. In addition, the price level shocks also tend to have significant but lagged effects on the financing provision of Islamic banks. Most interestingly, Islamic financing is impacted negatively and immediately by positive interest rate shocks, contradicting the argument that Islamic bank operations are shielded from interest rate fluctuations. Indeed, the excess sensitivity of Islamic banks to interest rate fluctuations and their lagged responses to price level shocks are found to be robust across alternative SVAR specifications. Practical implications – Operating under a dual banking system, Islamic banks are not immune from monetary conditions of the country. Indeed, it seems to be exposed to the interest rate risk, an aspect that needs to be accounted for by Islamic banks in their risk management. Originality/value – With the emergence of Islamic finance industry, understanding the implications of various macroeconomic factors on Islamic financing is essential. This study adds to this understanding, which has received limited attention.

Sukuk and monetary policy transmission in Indonesia: the role of asset price and exchange rate channels

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Suriani Suriani ◽  
M. Shabri Abd. Majid ◽  
Raja Masbar ◽  
Nazaruddin A. Wahid ◽  
Abdul Ghafar Ismail
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Asset Price ◽  
Transmission Mechanism ◽  
Monetary Policy Transmission ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Transmission ◽  
Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism

Purpose The purpose of this study is to empirically analyze the role of sukuk in the monetary policy transmission mechanism through the asset price and exchange rate channels in the Indonesian economy. Design/methodology/approach Using the monthly data from January 2003 to November 2017, this study uses a multivariate vector error correction model causality framework. To examine the role of sukuk in the monetary policy transmission mechanism through the asset price channel, this study uses the variables of consumption, inflation, interest rates, economic growth and the composite stock price index. Meanwhile, to examine the role of sukuk in the monetary policy transmission mechanism through the exchange rate channel, this study used variables of inflation, interest rates, economic growth, foreign investment and exchange rate. Findings This study documented that sukuk has no causal relationship with inflation through asset price and exchange rate channels. Nevertheless, sukuk has a bidirectional causal relationship with economic growth through asset price and exchange rate channels. Sukuk is also documented to have a causal relationship with monetary policy variables of interest rate and stock prices through asset price and exchange rate channels. Finally, a unidirectional causality is recorded running from the exchange rate to sukuk in the exchange rate channel. Research limitations/implications The finding of independence of the sukuk market from interest rates provides evidence that the trading of the sukuk in Indonesia has been in harmony with the Islamic tenets. Practical implications The relevant Indonesian authorities need to enhance both domestic and global sukuk markets as part of efforts to promote the sustainability of Islamic capital market development in Indonesia. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is among the first attempts to empirically investigate the role of sukuk in monetary policy transmission through asset price and exchange rate channels in the context of the Indonesian economy.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic determinants of interest rate spreads in Ghana

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 76-88 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samuel Kwabena Obeng ◽  
Daniel Sakyi
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Institutional Quality ◽  
Fiscal Discipline ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Interest Rate Spreads ◽  
Macroeconomic Determinants ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine macroeconomic determinants of interest rate spreads in Ghana for the period 1980-2013. Design/methodology/approach The autoregressive distributed lag bounds test approach to cointegration and the error correction model were used for the estimation. Findings The results indicate that exchange rate volatility, fiscal deficit, economic growth, and public sector borrowing from commercial banks, increase interest rate spreads in Ghana in both the long and short run. Institutional quality reduces interest rate spreads in the long run while lending interest rate volatility and monetary policy rate reduce interest rate spreads in the short run. Research limitations/implications The depreciation of the Ghana cedi must be controlled since its volatility increases spreads. There is a need for fiscal discipline since fiscal deficits increase interest rate spreads. Government must reduce its domestic borrowing because the associated crowding-out effect increases interest rate spreads. The central bank must improve its monitoring and regulation of the financial sector in order to reduce spreads. Originality/value The main novelty of the paper (compared to other studies on Ghana) lies on the one hand; analysing macroeconomic determinants of interest rate spreads and, on the other hand, controlling for the impact of institutional quality on interest rate spreads in Ghana.

scholarly journals Pengaruh Tingkat Suku Bunga, Inflasi Dan Nilai Kurs Terhadap Harga Saham Perusahaan Perhotelan Yang Terdaftar Di Bursa Efek Indonesia Per Triwulannya Periode 2016-2018

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 871-877
Author(s):  
Rahmat Dewa Bagas Nugraha ◽  
H.M Nursito
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Quantitative Study ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Ratio Analysis ◽  
The Interest Rate

This study aims to determine and analyze the factors that affect stock prices through appropriate ratio analysis. As for the ratio of interest rates, inflation and exchange rates. Researchers want to know and analyze the effect partially or simultaneously between interest rates, inflation, and exchange rates on stock prices. This research is a quantitative study using secondary data. The object of this research is hotel companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the period 2016-2018. The sample used in this study were 3 hotel with certain characteristics. The results of research simultaneously using the F test show that there is no influence between interest rates, inflation and exchange rates on stock prices because the calculated value is smaller than the table. Partially with the t test it can be concluded that there is no influence between interest rates on stock prices because the tcount value in the interest rate variable is smaller than the t table. Likewise, the t calculation of inflation and the exchange rate is smaller than the t table, so that there is no partial effect of the two variables on stock prices. Keywords: Stock Prices, Interest Rates, Inflation and Exchange Rates

scholarly journals The impacts of interest rate changes on US Midwest farmland values

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Albulena Basha ◽  
Wendong Zhang ◽  
Chad Hart
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
State Level ◽  
Land Values ◽  
Federal Funds ◽  
Federal Funds Rate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Farmland Values

PurposeThis paper quantifies the effects of recent Federal Reserve interest rate changes, specifically recent hikes and cuts in the federal funds rate since 2015, on Midwest farmland values.Design/methodology/approachThe authors apply three autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models to a panel data of state-level farmland values from 1963 to 2018 to estimate the dynamic effects of interest rate changes on the US farmland market. We focus on the I-states, Lakes states and Great Plains states. The models in the study capture both short-term and long-term impacts of policy changes on land values.FindingsThe authors find that changes in the federal funds rate have long-lasting impacts on farmland values, as it takes at least a decade for the full effects of an interest rate change to be capitalized in farmland values. The results show that the three recent federal funds rate cuts in 2019 were not sufficient to offset the downward pressures from the 2015–2018 interest rate hikes, but the 2020 cut is. The combined effect of the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate moves on farmland values will be positive for some time starting in 2022.Originality/valueThis paper provides the first empirical quantification of the immediate and long-run impacts of recent Federal Reserve interest rate moves on farmland values. The authors demonstrate the long-lasting repercussions of Federal Reserve's policy choices in the farmland market.

Cross-border merger and acquisition activities in Asia: the role of macroeconomic factors

2018 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 307-329 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yusnidah Ibrahim ◽  
Jimoh Olajide Raji
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Merger And Acquisition ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Asean Countries

Purpose This paper aims to examine the influence of key macroeconomic factors on the inward and outward acquisition activities of six ASEAN (ASEAN: Association of Southeast Asian Nations) countries, namely, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam, over the 1996-2015 period. Design/methodology/approach The study uses alternative panel data methods, including pooled mean group, mean group and dynamic fixed-effect estimators. Findings The results indicate that gross domestic product (GDP), interest rate, exchange rate, money supply and inflation rate are the most important macroeconomic factors explaining the trends of cross-border mergers and acquisition outflows of the ASEAN-6 countries. Specifically, GDP, money supply and inflation rate have significant positive relationships with acquisition outflows, while interest rate and exchange rate exert significant negative influence. On the other hand, the authors find four significant macroeconomic factors explaining the trends of the inward acquisitions. Essentially, GDP, money supply and inflation rate have significant positive impacts on inward acquisitions, while the impact of exchange rate is negatively significant. Research limitations/implications Unavailability of data limits this study to pool six sample countries from ASEAN, instead of ten representative member countries. Practical implications The results of this study can signal to firms or investors, involving in cross-border mergers and acquisitions, where to direct foreign resources flows. Moreover, having the knowledge about the relative levels of market size and other macroeconomic factors in both home and host countries can be of great importance for investment decision. Therefore, policymakers of ASEAN countries should make appropriate macroeconomic policies that can stimulate inward and outward acquisitions. Originality/value The main contribution of this paper is that it is the first to present the analysis of macroeconomic influences on the trends of inward and outward merger and acquisition activities in six ASEAN countries.

Re-examining the twin deficit hypothesis for major South Asian economies

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 265-287
Author(s):  
Shruti Shastri
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Sri Lanka ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Transmission Mechanism ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run

Purpose The purpose of this study is to revisit the twin deficit hypothesis (TDH) and provide insights into the transmission mechanism connecting budget deficits and current account deficits for five major South Asian countries, namely, India, Bangladesh, Pakistan Sri Lanka and Nepal for the period 1985-2016. Design/methodology/approach This study uses a multivariate framework including real interest rate, real exchange rate and real gross domestic product to avoid the possibility of incorrect inferences caused by omission of relevant mediating variables. The long-run relationship and causality are investigated through the autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach and Toda Yamamoto approach, respectively, for each individual country. The robustness of the results is assessed with the help of Westerlund’s cointegration test and group mean fully modified ordinary least squares (GM-FMOLS), group mean dynamic ordinary least square (GM-DOLS) and common correlated effect mean group (CCEMG) estimators in the panel framework. Findings Both time series and panel evidences indicate long-run relationship between budget balance (BB) and current account balance (CAB) together with the mediating variables. The results indicate bi-directional causation between the two balances for India and Bangladesh, TDH for Pakistan and Sri Lanka and the reverse causation from CAB to BB for Nepal. Regarding the transmission mechanism, the results indicate the absence of the causal chain postulated by Mundell–Fleming, which predicts that BB causes CAB via interest rate and exchange rate. A CCEMG estimate of the import demand function reveals a positive government spending elasticity of imports suggesting that BB affects CAB by direct impact through demand. Originality/value This study augments the twin deficit literature on South Asian countries by providing insights into the transmission mechanism connecting the BB and CAB. Moreover, the study provides robust evidences on the TDH by using both time series and panel data techniques.

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