scholarly journals The effect of monetary policy on credit risk: evidence from the MENA region countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 289-304
Author(s):  
Sherif Nabil Mahrous ◽  
Nagwa Samak ◽  
Mamdouh Abdelmoula M. Abdelsalam
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Credit Risk ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Mena Region ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Mena Countries ◽  
Effect Of Monetary Policy ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore the effect of monetary policy on bank risk in the banking system in some MENA countries. It explores how some economic and credit indicators affect the level of risk in the banking sector. It combines many factors that could affect banks’ risk appetite such as macroeconomic conditions, banks’ credit size and lending growth. The authors use nonperforming loans as a proxy for banking sector risks. At first, the authors have analyzed the linear relationship between monetary policy and credit risk. As mentioned above, nonlinearity is expected in the underlying relationship, and, thus, they have investigated the nonlinear relationship to deeply analyse the relationship using the dynamic panel threshold model, as stimulated by Kremer et al. (2013). Threshold models have gained a great importance in economics and finance for modelling nonlinear behaviour. Threshold models are useful in showing the turning points in the behaviour of financial and economic indicators. This technique has been applied in this study to study the effect of monetary policy on credit risk. Design/methodology/approach This paper is divided into the following sections: Section 2 which previews the recent literature; Section 3 which includes some stylized facts about the relationship between credit risk and monetary policy; Section 4 which deals with the model and methodology; Section 5 which handles the data sources and discusses the results, and finally Section 6 which is the conclusion. The paper adopts dynamic panel threshold model of Kremer et al. (2013). Findings The results show that the relationship between monetary policy and credit risk is positive and significant to a certain threshold, 6.3. If the lending interest rate is higher than 6.3, this increases the credit risk in the banking sector, because increasing the lending interest rate imposes huge burdens on the borrowers, and, therefore, the bad loans and nonperforming loans become more likely. Thus, the MENA countries need to decrease the lending interest rate to be less than 6.3 to reduce the effect of monetary policy on credit risk. Further, these results are qualitatively robust regarding the inclusion of additional control variables, using alternative threshold variables and further endogeneity checks of the credit risk, such as Risk premium and the squared term of the lending interest rate. The results of taking the risk premium and the squared term of the lending interest rate as a threshold served the analysis and confirmed the positive relationship between monetary policy and credit risk above a certain threshold. As for the risk premium, the relationship below the threshold was negative and significant. Other related research points might be a good avenue for the future research such as applying this approach to micro data of banks from different MENA countries. Also, more sophisticated approaches like time-varying panel approach to assess the relationship over the time can be applied. Originality/value The importance of this paper lies in the fact that it does not only study the effect of time, but it also focuses on the panel data about some economic and credit indicators in the MENA region for the first time. This is because central banks in the MENA region have common characteristics and congruous level of economic growth. Therefore, to study how the monetary policy affects those countries’ credit risks in their lending policies, this requires careful analysis of how the central banks in this region might behave to control default risks.

Multiple large shareholders and bank stability: the case of MENA banks

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rim Boussaada
Keyword(s):  
North Africa ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Mena Region ◽  
Bank Stability ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Mena Countries ◽  
Large Shareholders ◽  
Method Of Moments Estimation ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeThis study aims to investigate how multiple large shareholders individually and interactively influence Middle East and North Africa (MENA) bank stability.Design/methodology/approachThe empirical framework is based on a generalized dynamic two-step system and utilizes the method of moments estimation to analyze a panel dataset of 532 bank-year observations over the 2004–2017 period.FindingsThe estimation results show that large shareholders are crucial in explaining the differences in bank stability among MENA banks. Specifically, the first- and second-largest shareholders exacerbate bank instability. However, we found that the third-largest shareholder enhances bank stability. Additionally, the coalition between the two largest shareholders increases the moral hazard problem in MENA banks and significantly decreases stability. Meanwhile, the interaction between the three largest shareholders is associated with a control contestability problem, which impels better bank stability. The results support the dispersion effect of multiple large shareholders in MENA countries.Originality/valueThe role of large shareholders in corporate governance is widely recognized. However, very little is known about the role and the real impact that multiple large shareholders may have on the banking sector. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this work is the first to analyze the relationship between multiple large shareholders and bank stability in the MENA region.

The relationship between financial development and effectiveness of monetary policy: new evidence from ASEAN-3 countries

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zulkefly Abdul Karim ◽  
Danie Eirieswanty Kamal Basa ◽  
Bakri Abdul Karim
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Financial System ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the relationship between financial development (FD) and monetary policy effectiveness (MPE) on output and inflation in ASEAN-3 countries (Singapore, Malaysia and the Philippines). Design/methodology/approach This study uses an open economy structural vector autoregressive model to generate MPE. Then, an autoregressive distributed lagged (ARDL) model is used to analyze the effect of FD on MPE across countries. Findings The findings revealed that FD plays a different role in MPE across countries. In Malaysia, a more developed financial system tends to reduce the MPE on output, whereas in Singapore, results show that the more developed financial system (stock market capitalization) tends to increase MPE on output. However, in the Philippines, the main results show that the effect of FD (liquid liabilities) upon MPE on output is depending on the policy variable (interest rates or money supply). Originality/value This paper fills this gap by providing the first study of ASEAN-3 countries in examining how effective is a monetary policy in response to the development of the financial market across the country. Second, this paper considers two FD indicators, namely, the banking sector and capital market development in investigating its effect on MPE on output and inflation. Third, the authors construct the MPE in each country using a structural (identified) VAR model by aggregating the response of output growth and inflation rate on monetary policy changes (interest rate and money supply) using impulse–response function. Regarding this, the results of this study provide new empirical evidence and insight into the long debate on the relationship between FD and the MPE.

Bank regulation and credit crunch: evidence from MENA region commercial banks

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Chawki EL-Moussawi ◽  
Mohamad Kassem ◽  
Josse Roussel
Keyword(s):  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Banking Regulation ◽  
Capital Requirements ◽  
Mena Region ◽  
Institutional Variables ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeThis paper focuses on the relationship between the regulatory capital requirements and the supply of credit for commercial banks that are operating in the MENA region from 1999 till 2017.Design/methodology/approachThe application of the Fixed Effects Model on a panel of commercial banks in the MENA region has shown a negative relationship between supply of credit and both the capital requirements and solvency ratios.FindingsThe results showed that the idiosyncratic, the macroeconomic and the institutional variables affect the supply of credit behavior of banks. The robustness tests using the Two-Stage Least Square method (2SLS) also led to a negative correlation between the growth of credit and capital requirements. Specific macroeconomic and institutional variables have revealed the expected sign and are significant regardless of the estimated specifications.Research limitations/implicationsThis work can be subjected to further future extensions. The explanatory power of our model can be improved by incorporating variables that reflect the corporate governance and structure of banking sector. Similarly, we can also include a variable that takes into account the increasing competition that could affect the stability of the banking sector and therefore the prudential banking regulation.Originality/valuePrevious studies that investigated only the relationship between capital level and risk-taking behavior of banks in the MENA region did not take into account neither the economic and institutional environment nor the impact of these regulations on credit (loans) supply.

Monetary policy and macroeconomic responses: non-recursive SVAR study of Egypt

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 319-337
Author(s):  
Mohamed Aseel Shokr ◽  
Zulkefly Abdul Karim ◽  
Mohd Azlan Shah Zaidi
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Monetary Policy Shocks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Svar Model ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
Effect Of Monetary Policy ◽  
Foreign Shocks

Purpose This paper aims to examine the effects of monetary policy and foreign shocks on output, inflation and exchange rate in Egypt. Design/methodology/approach This paper studies the effects of monetary policy and foreign shocks on output, inflation and exchange rate by using non-recursive SVAR model and quarterly data. Findings First, the empirical results reveal that monetary policy shocks, through changes in interest rate or money supply, have a significant effect on output, inflation and exchange rate in Egypt. Second, the world oil prices and foreign output have significant impacts on output, inflation and exchange rate in Egypt, while foreign interest rate has a significant effect on domestic output and inflation. Research limitations/implications The limitation of the study is examining one country only. Practical implications The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) should adjust interest rate to stabilize inflation, output and exchange rate. By stabilizing inflation, output and exchange rate, the CBE would be able to achieve the ultimate targets of monetary policy, namely, price stability and economic growth. Social implications It is important for the CBE because it shows the significant effect of monetary policy on macroeconomic variables in Egypt. Also, it is important for people because it shows the important role for the CBE. Originality/value It is important for the CBE because it examines the effect of monetary policy and foreign shocks on macroeconomic variables.

Real interest rate, income and bank loans: panel evidence from Egypt

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 227-243
Author(s):  
Mohamed Aseel Shokr
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Bank Loans ◽  
Bank Lending Channel ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Lending Channel ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
Effect Of Monetary Policy ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This paper aims to examine the effectiveness of monetary policy on bank loans in Egypt using generalized method of moments (GMM) model. Also, it investigates the impact of bank level variables, namely, total assets, liquidity, capital and income on bank loans. It develops the equation of loans, which is introduced by Ehrmann et al. (2002) using bank level variables such as income and the interaction between income and interest rate. Design/methodology/approach This paper examines the impact of monetary policy shocks on bank loans in Egypt by applying the GMM technique and panel data from 1996 to 2014. Findings The results reveal that real interest rate has a significant impact on bank loans, which indicates that the bank lending channel is effective in Egypt. Furthermore, the bank level variables, namely, banks’ size, liquidity and income have significant effects on bank loans in Egypt, which sustains the heterogeneous effect of monetary policy on bank loans. Therefore, the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) can adjust interest rate to influence the bank loans and total demand. Research limitations/implications It does not examine the effect of monetary policy on small and large banks in Egypt. Practical implications The policy implications from this paper indicate that the monetary authority in Egypt should adjust interest rate to stabilize the bank loan supply. By stabilizing the bank loans, the monetary authority is able to stabilize investment, consumption and total demand. Social implications The relevance of bank lending channel indicates that the role of commercial banks is very important in transmitting monetary policy shocks to the real sector. Originality/value It is important for the CBE, banks and people because it shows the effectiveness of bank lending channel and the effect of global financial crisis on the Egyptian economy.

Impact of Islamic banking share on financial inclusion: evidence from MENA

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 655-673
Author(s):  
Duha Farouq Khmous ◽  
Mustafa Besim
Keyword(s):  
Banking Sector ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Individual Characteristics ◽  
Financial Inclusion ◽  
Islamic Banking ◽  
Mena Region ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Mena Countries ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This study aims to investigate how the Islamic banking share (percentage of total Islamic banking assets relative to total banking sector assets) and individual characteristics (gender, age, income and education) affect financial inclusion in 14 Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries with different income levels. Design/methodology/approach This study uses data from the 2014 World Bank Global Findex database to analyze the impact of individual characteristics, Islamic banking share and countries’ developmental levels on financial inclusion and its barriers in MENA countries. The probit estimation method is used for estimations. Findings The findings indicate that financial inclusion, particularly in middle-income MENA countries, is lower than the global average. While being male, rich and older positively affects financial inclusion in these countries, education does not. Islamic banking practises also contribute to financial inclusion, especially for individuals with strong religious affiliations. The effect of Islamic banking on financial inclusion is found to be greater in middle-income MENA countries. Practical implications Islamic banking institutions could play a greater role in promoting financial inclusion in the MENA region by offering Sharia-compliant products that meet individuals’ needs, matching the specific requirements and status of each country with affordable costs and offering adequate information to customers. Governments should promote more Islamic banking and incentivise investments in technology, which helps expand financial inclusion. Originality/value This is the first study to examine the influence of Islamic banking share and countries’ levels of development on financial inclusion in the MENA region.

Capital Regulation and Market Competition in the MENA Region: Policy Implications for Banking Sector Stability During COVID-19 Pandemic

2021 ◽  
pp. 097215092110644
Author(s):  
Miroslav Mateev ◽  
Syed Moudud-Ul-Huq ◽  
Tarek Nasr
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
Market Power ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Market Competition ◽  
Capital Requirements ◽  
Capital Regulation ◽  
Islamic Banks ◽  
Mena Region ◽  
Conventional Banks ◽  
The Relationship

This article investigates the impact of capital requirements and market competition on the stability of financial institutions in the Middle East and North African (MENA) region. We test the hypothesis that capital requirements significantly affect the risk behaviour of both Islamic and conventional banks in the MENA region. We also investigate the moderating effect of market power and concentration on the relationship between capital regulation and bank risk. We find that capital ratio has a strong positive impact on conventional banks’ credit risk, whereas this effect is insignificant in the sample of Islamic banks. Our analysis indicates that, for the conventional banking sector, the increase in the capitalization level is negatively linked to bank credit risk only when banks’ level of market power is high. Regarding the Islamic banks’ behaviour, we find that the relationship between capital and credit risk is weakly moderated by banking competition. This means that Islamic banks are less sensitive to the market’s competitive conditions in the MENA countries, as they still apply their theoretical models, based on prohibition of interest. Our findings inform regulatory authorities concerned with improving the banking sector’s financial stability in the MENA region to strengthen their policies and force banks to better align with regulatory capital requirements during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Financial performance under influence of credit risk in non-financial firms: evidence from Pakistan

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Mushafiq ◽  
Muzammal Ilyas Sindhu ◽  
Muhammad Khalid Sohail
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
Financial Performance ◽  
Firm Size ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Financial Firms ◽  
Score Model ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeThe main purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between credit risk and financial performance in non-financial firms.Design/methodology/approachIn order to test the relationship between Altman Z-score model as a credit risk proxy and the Return on Asset and Equity as indicator for financial performance with control variables leverage, liquidity and firm size. Least Square Dummy Variable regression analysis is opted. This research's sample included 69 non-financial companies from the Pakistan Stock Exchange KSE-100 Index between 2012 and 2017.FindingsThis study establishes the findings that Altman Z-score, leverage and firm size significantly impact the financial performance of the KSE-100 non-financial firms. However, liquidity is found to be insignificant in this study. Altman Z-score and firm size have shown a positive relationship to the financial performance, whereas leverage is inversely related.Practical implicationsThis study brings in a new and useful insight into the literature on the relationship between credit risk and financial performance. The results of this study provide investors, businesses and managers related to non-financial firms in the KSE-100 index with significant insight about credit risk's impact on performance.Originality/valueThe evidence of the credit risk and financial performance on samples of non-financial firms has not been studied; mainly it has been limited to the banking sector. This study helps in the evaluation of Altman Z-score's performance in the non-financial firms in KSE-100 index as well.

Does monetary policy affect economic growth: evidence from Malaysia

2018 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 2-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ergin Akalpler ◽  
Dilgash Duhok
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between monetary policy and economic growth in the light of a developing economy, with the main focus on Malaysia. Primarily, the research will concentrate on the interactions between interest rates, inflation, money supply and growth in GDP, which will serve as the instrument for measuring economic growth. Design/methodology/approach The research will apply quantitative analysis to determine the relationship between GDP growth and monetary policy instruments, particularly interest rate, money supply and level of inflation. Given the advancement and achievement in econometric analysis and computer software creation, the least-squares estimates analysis will be used to investigate the relationship and significance between these variables. Findings It is observed that relationship between economic growth and inflation is positive. This entails that a 1 percent change in inflation will result in a 77 percent increase in the level of economic growth in this economy. The linkage between economic growth and interest rates has also been observed to be positive. A positive nexus can be observed between economic growth and money supply. The coefficient value of 0.02 for money supply growth shows that it has the smallest effect on economic growth amongst the variables tested in the model. Research limitations/implications Based on the findings of this study, the following recommendations can be made, which could serve as policies instruments for Malaysian economic development. This does not mean that the findings can be generalized for other developing economies. Practical implications Observations from the test for economic application significance are based on the signs of the parameters. It was observed that inflation, interest rates and money supply all have a positive relationship with economic growth, which is in line with the a priori expectations. This means that monetary policy has positively affected the economic growth. Social implications The results of the OLS analysis reveal that the monetary policy instruments used for the model demonstrated that monetary policy has a positive relationship with economic growth in Malaysia. A breakdown of the individual monetary policy instruments shows that the interest rate, inflation and money supply all have individual positive relationships with economic growth. Originality/value A positive relationship exists between economic growth in Malaysia and all selected monetary instruments, namely, inflation, money supply and interest rate. The results show that the results show that inflation, interest rate and money supply will cause the economy to grow but their contribution to the developments is affected from other policy instruments which are used by the governments.

Assessing the bank profitability in the MENA region

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 305-332 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rim Ben Selma Mokni ◽  
Houssem Rachdi
Keyword(s):  
Method Of Moments ◽  
North Africa ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Middle Eastern ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Mena Region ◽  
Bank Profitability ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Conventional Banks ◽  
Econometric Technique

Purpose – Which of the banking stream is relatively more profitable in Middle Eastern and North Africa (MENA) region? Design/methodology/approach – The empirical study covers a sample of 15 conventional and 15 Islamic banks for the period 2002-2009.The authors estimate models using the generalized method of moments in system, of Blundell and Bond (1998). They exploit an up-to-date econometric technique which takes into consideration the issue of endogeneity of regressors to evaluate the comparative profitability of Islamic and conventional banks in the MENA region. Findings – Empirical analysis results show that the determinants’ significance varies between Islamic and conventional banks. Profitability seems to be quite persistent in the MENA region reflecting a higher degree of government intervention and may signal barriers to competition. Originality/value – The main interest is to develop a comprehensive model that integrates macroeconomic, industry-specific and bank-specific determinants. The paper makes comparison of the performance between two different banking systems in the MENA region. The authors consider a variable crisis to gain additional insights into the impacts of the financial crisis on MENA banking sector.

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