scholarly journals Revisiting currency swaps: hedging real estate investments in global city markets

2018 ◽  
Vol 36 (2) ◽  
pp. 191-209
Author(s):  
Philipp Bejol ◽  
Nicola Livingstone
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Net Worth ◽  
Individual Asset

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to re-examine currency swaps as an effective hedging technique for individual asset performance in today’s global real estate market, by considering hypothetical prime office investments across six different cities and five currency pairs. The perspective of a risk-averse, high net worth, non-institutional, smaller-scale Swiss investor is paired with investors from five additional national markets. Design/methodology/approach The study examines currency swaps in key office markets across three continents (Frankfurt, London, New York, Sydney, Warsaw and Zurich) and extends previous work on the topic by adopting both Monte Carlo (MC) and Latin Hypercube (LH) techniques to create stochastic samples for individual asset performance analyses. This is the first paper to apply LH sampling to currency swaps with underlying real estate assets, and the validity of this method is compared with that of MC. Four models are presented: the experience of the domestic investor (no exchange rate (ER) fluctuations); an unhedged direct foreign investment; hedging rental income and initial purchase price via a currency swap; and hedging rental income and anticipated terminal value. Findings The efficacy of a swap depends on the historical framework of the ERs. If the foreign currency depreciates against the domestic one, hedging the repatriated cash flow of a property investment proved superior to the unhedged strategy (EUR, GBP, PLN and USD to the CHF). An investor would benefit from exposure to an appreciating foreign currency (CHF to the EUR, GBP, PLN and USD), with an unhedged strategy clearly outperforming the currency swap as well as the domestic investor’s performance, while a historically sideways fluctuating ER (AUD to the CHF) also favours an unhedged approach. In all scenarios, unexpected economic or market shocks could cause negative consequences on the repatriated proceeds. Practical implications This research is of interest to small-scale, non-institutional investors aiming to develop strategies for currency risk mitigation in international investments for individual assets; however, tax-optimising strategies and the implications on a larger portfolio have not been taken into account. Originality/value There is no recent academic work on the efficacy of currency swaps in today’s global office market, nor has the position of smaller-scale high net worth investors received much academic attention. This research revisits the discussion on their validity, providing contemporary insight into the performance of six markets using LH as an alternative and original sampling technique.

scholarly journals What sells in a crisis? Determinants of sale probability over a cycle and through a crash

2017 ◽  
Vol 35 (6) ◽  
pp. 619-637 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Scofield ◽  
Steven Devaney
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Sample Selection ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Commercial Real Estate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Asset Selection ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Real Estate Cycle ◽  
Over Time

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to understand what affects the liquidity of individual commercial real estate assets over the course of the economic cycle by exploring a range of variables and a number of time periods to identify key determinants of sale probability. Design/methodology/approach Analyzing 12,000 UK commercial real estate transactions (2003 to 2013) the authors use an innovative sampling technique akin to a perpetual inventory approach to generate a sample of held assets for each 12 month interval. Next, the authors use probit models to test how market, owner and property factors affect sale probability in different market environments. Findings The types of properties that are most likely to sell changes between strong and weak markets. Office and retail assets were more likely to sell than industrial both overall and in better market conditions, but were less likely to sell than industrial properties during the downturn from mid-2007 to mid-2009. Assets located in the City of London more likely to sell in both strong and weak markets. The behavior of different groups of owners changed over time, and this indicates that the type of owner might have implications for the liquidity of individual assets over and above their physical and locational attributes. Practical implications Variation in sale probability over time and across assets has implications for real estate investment management both in terms of asset selection and the ability to rebalance portfolios over the course of the cycle. Results also suggest that sample selection may be an issue for commercial real estate price indices around the globe and imply that indices based on a limited group of owners/sellers might be susceptible to further biases when tracking market performance through time. Originality/value The study differs from the existing literature on sale probability as the authors analyzed samples of transactions drawn from all investor types, a significant advantage over studies based on data restricted to samples of domestic institutional investors. As well, information on country of origin for buyers and sellers allows us to explore the influence of foreign ownership on the probability of sale. Finally, the authors not only analyze all transactions together, but the authors also look at transactions in five distinct periods that correspond with different phases of the UK commercial real estate cycle. This paper considers the UK real estate market, but it is likely that many of the findings hold for other major commercial real estate markets.

Algorithm of real estate mass appraisal with inequality restricted least squares (IRLS) estimation

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 161-179
Author(s):  
Mariusz Doszyń
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Econometric Model ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Low Efficiency ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to present an algorithm of real estate mass appraisal in which the impact of attributes (real estate features) is estimated by inequality restricted least squares (IRLS) model. Design/methodology/approach This paper presents the algorithm of real estate mass appraisal, which was also presented in the form of an econometric model. Vital problem related to econometric models of mass appraisal is multicollinearity. In this paper, a priori knowledge about parameters is used by imposing restrictions in the form of inequalities. IRLS model is therefore used to limit negative consequences of multicollinearity. In ordinary least squares (OLS) models, estimator variances might be inflated by multicollinearity, which could lead to wrong signs of estimates. In IRLS models, estimators efficiency is higher (estimator variances are lower), which could result in better appraisals. Findings The final effect of the analysis is a vector of the impact of real estate attributes on their value in the mass appraisal algorithm. After making expert corrections, the algorithm was used to evaluate 318 properties from the test set. Valuation errors were also discussed. Originality/value Restrictions in the form of inequalities were imposed on the parameters of the econometric model, ensuring the non-negativity and monotonicity of real estate attribute impact. In case of real estate, variables are usually correlated. OLS estimators are then inflated and inefficient. Imposing restrictions in form of inequalities could improve results because IRLS estimators are more efficient. In the case of results inconsistent with theoretical assumptions, the real estate mass appraisal algorithm enables having the obtained results adjusted by an expert. This can be important for low quality databases, which is often the case in underdeveloped real estate markets. Another reason for expert correction may be the low efficiency of a given real estate market.

Evaluating the cost and benefits of earthquake protection of buildings

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 263-278 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benedetto Manganelli ◽  
Marco Vona ◽  
Pierfrancesco De Paola
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Seismic Risk ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Tax Incentives ◽  
Seismic Retrofitting ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Seismic Risk Mitigation ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Earthquake Protection ◽  
Real Estate Assets

Purpose The purpose of this study is the evaluation of the cost and benefits of earthquake protection of buildings to verify whether the legislative push, through tax incentives, will produce results and lead to a redevelopment of private real estate assets. Design/methodology/approach Through contingent valuation, this research aims to measure the propensity of homeowners to invest in the seismic security of their properties. The sample of homeowners was selected in a southern Italy city, which was characterized by a medium-high seismic hazard. The willingness to pay, once made independent from the family income, was compared with the actual cost of a seismic retrofitting technique to assess its cost-effectiveness. Findings The analysis developed on an example case shows that the economic sustainability of the intervention is only verified when considering the current tax incentives for this type of intervention. Practical implications Choosing to introduce a system to compulsory insurance against seismic risk could certainly be a strong incentive for the implementation of retrofitting interventions on private real estate assets. In this direction, investigations like this can be fundamental to establish the fair risk premium. Originality/value The need for effective seismic risk mitigation policies is also based on the growing awareness of the, often fatal, effects of seismic events, emphasized by the recent medium and high intensity events that hit Italy. The issue of the security of residential buildings is therefore a very topical issue in view of their high seismic vulnerability and the vast number of buildings requiring major seismic retrofitting. Therefore, the propensity of owners to intervene in improving the seismic performance of their properties can be crucial in seismic risk mitigation.

What drives housing prices, rent and new construction in China

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 662-686
Author(s):  
Dimitrios Staikos ◽  
Wenjun Xue
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Empirical Test ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Content Type ◽  
New Construction ◽  
Using Data ◽  
First Time

Purpose With this paper, the authors aim to investigate the drivers behind three of the most important aspects of the Chinese real estate market, housing prices, housing rent and new construction. At the same time, the authors perform a comprehensive empirical test of the popular 4-quadrant model by Wheaton and DiPasquale. Design/methodology/approach In this paper, the authors utilize panel cointegration estimation methods and data from 35 Chinese metropolitan areas. Findings The results indicate that the 4-quadrant model is well suited to explain the determinants of housing prices. However, the same is not true regarding housing rent and new construction suggesting a more complex theoretical framework may be required for a well-rounded explanation of real estate markets. Originality/value It is the first time that panel data are used to estimate rent and new construction for China. Also, it is the first time a comprehensive test of the Wheaton and DiPasquale 4-quadrant model is performed using data from China.

Linkages between cross-country business cycles, cross-country stock market cycles and cross-country real estate market cycles

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 123-146 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kim Hiang Liow
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Index ◽  
Cross Country ◽  
The Cross

Purpose This research aims to investigate whether and to what extent the co-movements of cross-country business cycles, cross-country stock market cycles and cross-country real estate market cycles are linked across G7 from February 1990 to June 2014. Design/methodology/approach The empirical approaches include correlation analysis on Hodrick–Prescott (HP) cycles, HP cycle return spillovers effects using Diebold and Yilmaz’s (2012) spillover index methodology, as well as Croux et al.’s (2001) dynamic correlation and cohesion methodology. Findings There are fairly strong cycle-return spillover effects between the cross-country business cycles, cross-country stock market cycles and cross-country real estate market cycles. The interactions among the cross-country business cycles, cross-country stock market cycles and cross-country real estate market cycles in G7 are less positively pronounced or exhibit counter-cyclical behavior at the traditional business cycle (medium-term) frequency band when “pure” stock market cycles are considered. Research limitations/implications The research is subject to the usual limitations concerning empirical research. Practical implications This study finds that real estate is an important factor in influencing the degree and behavior of the relationship between cross-country business cycles and cross-country stock market cycles in G7. It provides important empirical insights for portfolio investors to understand and forecast the differential benefits and pitfalls of portfolio diversification in the long-, medium- and short-cycle horizons, as well as for research studying the linkages between the real economy and financial sectors. Originality/value In adding to the existing body of knowledge concerning economic globalization and financial market interdependence, this study evaluates the linkages between business cycles, stock market cycles and public real estate market cycles cross G7 and adds to the academic real estate literature. Because public real estate market is a subset of stock market, our approach is to use an original stock market index, as well as a “pure” stock market index (with the influence of real estate market removed) to offer additional empirical insights from two key complementary perspectives.

A post-global financial crisis (GFC) framework for strategic planning, assessment and management decision making for US sustainable commercial real estate

2017 ◽  
Vol 35 (6) ◽  
pp. 589-618 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pernille Hoy Christensen
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Performance Indicators ◽  
Institutional Investors ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Commercial Real Estate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Sustainability Initiatives

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to understand both the facts and the values associated with the breadth of issues, and the principles related to sustainable real estate for institutional investors. Sustainable real estate is a growing sector within the commercial real estate industry, and yet, the decision-making practices of institutional investors related to sustainability are still not well understood. In an effort to fill that gap, this research investigates the post-global financial crisis (GFC) motivations driving the implementation of sustainability initiatives, the implementation strategies used, and the predominant eco-indicators and measures used by institutional investors. Design/methodology/approach This paper presents the results of a three-round modified Delphi study conducted in the USA in 2011-2012 investigating the nature of performance measurements and reporting requirements in sustainable commercial real estate and their impact on the real estate decision-making process used by institutional investors. Two rounds of in-depth interviews were conducted with 14 expert panelists. An e-questionnaire was used in the third round to verify qualitative findings. Findings The key industry drivers and performance indicators influencing institutional investor decision making were associated with risk management of assets and whether initiatives can improve competitive market advantage. Industry leaders advocate for simple key performance indicators, which is in contrast to the literature which argues for the need to adopt common criteria and metrics. Key barriers to the adoption of sustainability initiatives are discussed and a decision framework is presented. Practical implications This research aims to help industry partners understand the drivers motivating institutional investors to uptake sustainability initiatives with the aim of improving decision making, assessment, and management of sustainable commercial office buildings. Originality/value Building on the four generations of the sustainability framework presented by Simons et al. (2001), this research argues that the US real estate market has yet again adjusted its relationship with sustainability and revises their framework to include a new, post-GFC generation for decision making, assessment, and management of sustainable real estate.

scholarly journals Cap rates and risk: a spatial analysis of commercial real estate

2018 ◽  
Vol 35 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-43
Author(s):  
Florian Unbehaun ◽  
Franz Fuerst
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Risk Perceptions ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Risk Premia ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Commercial Real Estate ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Large Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This study aims to assess the impact of location on capitalization rates and risk premia. Design/methodology/approach Using a transaction-based data series for the five largest office markets in Germany from 2005 to 2015, regression analysis is performed to account for a large set of asset-level drivers such as location, age and size and time-varying macro-level drivers. Findings Location is found to be a key determinant of cap rates and risk premia. CBD locations are found to attract lower cap rates and lower risk premia in three of the five largest markets in Germany. Interestingly, this effect is not found in the non-CBD locations of these markets, suggesting that the lower perceived risk associated with these large markets is restricted to a relatively small area within these markets that are reputed to be safe investments. Research limitations/implications The findings imply that investors view properties in peripheral urban locations as imperfect substitutes for CBD properties. Further analysis also shows that these risk premia are not uniformly applied across real estate asset types. The CBD risk effect is particularly pronounced for office and retail assets, apparently considered “prime” investments within the central locations. Originality/value This is one of the first empirical studies of the risk implications of peripheral commercial real estate locations. It is also one of the first large-scale cap rate analyses of the German commercial real estate market. The results demonstrate that risk perceptions of investors have a distinct spatial dimension.

Real estate development in the city of Athens during the financial crisis

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Nikitidou ◽  
Fragiskos Archontakis ◽  
Athanasios Tagkalakis
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Structural Characteristics ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Structural Factors ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Capital Financing ◽  
The City

Purpose This study aims to determine how the prices of residential properties in the Greek real estate sector are affected by their structural characteristics and by the prevailing economic factors during recession. Design/methodology/approach Based on 13,835 valuation reports for the city of Athens, covering a period of 11 years (2006–2016), this study develops a series of econometric models, taking into account both structural characteristics of the property market and the macroeconomic relevant variables. Finally, the city of Athens is divided into sub-regions and the different effects of the structural factors in each area are investigated via spatial analysis confirming the validity of the baseline model. Findings Findings show that the size, age, level, parking and storage space can explain the property price movements. Moreover, the authors find evidence that it is primarily house demand variables (e.g. the annual average wage, the unemployment rate, the user cost of capital, financing constraints and expectations about the future course of the house market) that affect house prices in a statistically significant manner and with the correct sign. Finally, using a difference-in-differences approach, this study finds that an increase in house demand (on account of net migration) led to higher house prices in smaller and older than in larger and younger apartments in areas with high concentration of immigrants. Originality/value This study uses a novel data set to help entities, individuals and policy-makers to understand how the recent economic and financial crisis has affected the real estate market in Athens.

Foreign investment in Australian residential properties

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 166-180 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hassan F. Gholipour ◽  
Hooi Hooi Lean ◽  
Reza Tajaddini ◽  
Anh Khoi Pham
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Housing Development ◽  
Housing Construction ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Residential Properties ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this study is to examine the impact that foreign investment in existing houses and new housing development has on residential house prices and the growth of the housing construction sector. Design/methodology/approach The analysis is based on a panel cointegration method, estimated using annual data for all Australian states and territories spanning the period of 1990-2013. Findings The results indicate that increases in foreign investment in existing houses do not significantly lead to increases in house prices. On the other hand, a 10 per cent increase in foreign investment for housing development decreases house prices by 1.95 per cent. We also find that foreign real estate investments have a positive impact on housing construction activities in the long run. Originality/value Existing studies used aggregate foreign real estate investment in their analyses. As foreign investment in existing houses and foreign investment for housing development have different impacts on the demand and supply sides of housing market, it is crucial that the analysis of the effects of foreign investment in residential properties on real estate market is conducted for each type differently.

scholarly journals Designing a decision support system to evaluate the environmental and extra-economic performances of a nearly zero-energy building

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 413-442 ◽  
Author(s):  
Federico Dell'Anna ◽  
Marta Bottero ◽  
Cristina Becchio ◽  
Stefano Paolo Corgnati ◽  
Giulio Mondini
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Alternative Energy ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Preference Ranking ◽  
Zero Energy ◽  
Energy Investment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Promethee Ii ◽  
Site Analysis ◽  
Zero Energy Building

PurposeThe cost-optimal analysis is not able to address the multi-dimensionality of the decision according to the new European objectives and International sustainable development goals in the field of the nearly-zero energy building (NZEB) design. The purpose of this paper is to study the role of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) for guiding energy investment decisions.Design/methodology/approachThe paper explores the Preference ranking organization method for enrichment of evaluations II (PROMETHEE II) application to support the project of transforming a rural building into a NZEB. The evaluation provides an estimate of the effects of alternative energy efficiency measures, involving energy consumption, life cycle costs, carbon emissions, property value and indoor comfort criteria. The study performs a multi-actors analysis in order to understand how different consumers' point of views can influence the final choice of the best investment. Furthermore, a multi-site analysis explores the spatial variation of NZEB building appreciation in the real estate market.FindingsThe PROMETHEE II-based model ranks 16 alternative solutions for the NZEB according to energy, economic and extra-economic criteria. The multi-actors analysis highlights the configuration of the NZEB building that best meets the needs of different end-users, respecting the European directives and national standards. The multi-site analysis concludes that location does not change users' appreciation and not influence the output for the best solution.Originality/valueThe MCDA occurs as a support tool that helps to optimize the preliminary design phase of NZEB through the exploration of the optimal solution considering crucial criteria in the energy and environmental and real estate market rules.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document