A dynamic model of an insurer: loss shocks, capacity constraints and underwriting cycles

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 82-93
Author(s):  
Ning Wang ◽  
Maryna Murdock
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Flow Model ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Dynamic Interaction ◽  
Capacity Constraints ◽  
Real Business Cycle ◽  
Content Type ◽  
External Capital ◽  
Amplifying Effect

Purpose This paper aims to revisit the assumption of the cyclicality of the property-liability insurance market and identify a scenario in which the so-called underwriting cycles are unpredictable, according to a dynamic cash flow model which generates non-cyclical output dynamics. Design/methodology/approach This paper is on the intersection of real business cycle models and financial cycles. The authors construct a dynamic model of an insurer’s cash flows with stochastic loss shocks and capacity constraints, in which loss shocks have a dual impact on both underwriting profits and access to external capital. They simulate the insurer’s optimal output responses to loss shocks, including output movements in underwriting coverage and external capital, to explore the source of unpredictable underwriting cycles through linear quadratic approximation in the model economy. Findings The authors find that the effect of loss shocks on the insurer’s cash flows could spread out and amplify over time because of the dynamic interaction between its underwriting capability and ability to raise external capital. This dynamic interaction can generate a non-cyclical pattern of changes in underwriting coverage and access to external capital in the benchmark economy. Applied to different experimental economies, the simulation results reveal that the determinants of the level of output fluctuations include the size of loss shocks, the sensitivity of capital market to loss shocks and the tightness of capital market. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, there has been no attempt to study insurance output cyclicality with a dynamic cash flow model based upon the real business cycle literature, in which the dynamic interaction between underwriting and access to external capital because of loss shocks has an amplifying effect on output markets. This paper contributes to the current body of research by being able to simulate and show the insurance output dynamics resulting from the amplifying effect under capacity constraints.

Does Financial Reporting Conservatism Mitigate Underinvestment?

2017 ◽  
Vol 34 (2) ◽  
pp. 258-283 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hyun A. Hong ◽  
Yongtae Kim ◽  
Gerald J. Lobo
Keyword(s):  
Information Asymmetry ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Financial Reporting ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Agency Conflicts ◽  
Negative Relation ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
External Capital ◽  
Cash Flow Volatility

This study examines the role of financial reporting conservatism in mitigating underinvestment problems. Recognizing that volatile cash flows increase the need to access external capital markets and that agency conflicts and information asymmetry make external capital costlier than internal capital, which leads managers to forgo valuable investment projects, Minton and Schrand document a negative relation between cash flow volatility and investment. We draw on Minton and Schrand’s framework to isolate underinvestment problems and hypothesize and document that conservatism mitigates the negative relation between cash flow volatility and investment and that this mitigative effect is more pronounced for firms with ex ante more severe agency conflicts. We also document that conservatism mitigates the sensitivity of investment to cash flow volatility by facilitating access to external capital.

scholarly journals Simulation evidence on the properties of alternative measures of working capital accruals

2017 ◽  
Vol 25 (4) ◽  
pp. 378-394
Author(s):  
Javad Izadi Zadeh Darjezi ◽  
Homagni Choudhury ◽  
Alireza Nazarian
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Estimation Error ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Working Capital ◽  
Accrual Quality ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Study Results ◽  
The Uk

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the specification and power of tests based on the DD and modified DD model through the UK data between years 2000 and 2013, and make comparisons with tests using working capital accruals creating a measure of accruals quality as the standard deviation of the residuals value from firm-specific regressions base on working capital accruals on last, current and one-year-ahead cash flows from operations. Design/methodology/approach This study focuses both on the DD model and modified DD model to find out which of them can more accurately capture total working capital accrual estimation error and accrual quality. According to the DD model, the past, current and future net cash from operating activities as the three years’ operating cash inflows or outflows become omitted and correlated variables. In this study, the authors continue to document residuals from the DD and MDD models to demonstrate properties that are more consistent with behaviours of accruals estimation errors. Therefore, in this study, the authors are looking to compare the results from both the MDD and DD models and find which one of them is more effective in explaining the working capital accruals in the UK. Findings The authors find that adding additional explanatory variables may add additional explanatory power of variables to the DD model and extent to which accruals map into cash flow insights based on the UK data. This study is empirically well fitting with the internal workings of cash flows. As investors fixate only on the accounting earnings, they may fail to reflect fully on information contained within cash flow components and working capital accruals of current and future earnings. Originality/value The authors compare different equation to cover more items of working capital accruals. In addition, after examining earnings and accrual quality, the findings show that the average UK company behaviour was quite similar to the behaviour that was founded earlier for both models in the USA. Furthermore, this study results show that more volatility of sales, cash flow, accruals and earnings make a lower accrual quality. The results demonstrate that both models can capture the power to predict working capital accruals. Moreover, we find that adding additional explanatory variable of employee growth rate adds additional explanatory variables to DD model.

scholarly journals Who is the ultimate master of contractual, regulatory, discretionary and residual cash flows? An answer from the standpoint of corporate governance

2008 ◽  
Vol 6 (1-4) ◽  
pp. 424-432 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rodolfo Apreda
Keyword(s):  
Corporate Governance ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Building Block ◽  
Flow Model ◽  
Building Blocks ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Senior Management ◽  
Investment Portfolio ◽  
Decision Rights ◽  
Rules Of The Game

This paper sets forth a framework of analysis that links contractual, discretionary, regulatory and residual cash flows with decision rights over them. To attain this purpose, firstly we introduce the standard incremental cash flow model, underlying its main limitations. Secondly, we move on bringing to light cash flows to senior management and directors, as well as the so-often neglected investment portfolio. Next, we settle down to what we are going to call the compact cash flow model that comprises five building blocks, namely those arising out of assets, those addressed to owners, creditors, managers and directors, and lastly the company’s investment portfolio. Afterwards, contractual, discretionary, regulatory and residual cash flows are enlarged upon. Last of all, we focus on decision rights over every constituent of each building block. This issue carries weight in Corporate Governance since stakeholders who claim or exercise decision rights, also could trespass on the rules of the game, becoming better off to the expense and damage of other stakeholders.

Corporate cash flow and dividends smoothing: a panel data analysis at Bursa Malaysia

2015 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 2-19 ◽  
Author(s):  
Apedzan Emmanuel Kighir ◽  
Normah Haji Omar ◽  
Norhayati Mohamed
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Panel Data Analysis ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Payout Policy ◽  
Free Cash Flow ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Financial Firms ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the debate and find out the impact of cash flow on changes in dividend payout decisions among non-financial firms quoted at Bursa Malaysia as compared to earnings. There has been renewed debate in recent finance and accounting literature concerning the key determinants of changes in dividends payout policy decisions in some jurisdictions. The conclusion in some is that firms base their dividend decisions on cash flows rather than published earnings. Design/methodology/approach – The research made use of panel data from 1999 to 2012 at Bursa Malaysia, using generalized method of moments as the main method of analysis. Findings – The research finds that Malaysia non-financial firms consider current earnings more important than current cash flow while making dividends payout decisions, and prior year cash flows are considered more important in dividends decisions than prior year earnings. We also found support for Jensen (1986) in Malaysia on agency theory, that managers of firms pay dividends from free cash flow to reduce agency conflicts. Practical implications – The research concludes that Malaysian non-financial firms use current earnings and less of current cash flow in making changes in dividends policy. The policy implication is that current earnings are dividends smoothing agents, and the more they are considered in dividends payout decisions, the less of dividends smoothing. Social implications – If dividends smoothing is encouraged, it could lead to dividends-based earnings management. Originality/value – The research is our novel contribution of assisting investors and government in making informed decisions regarding dividends policy in Malaysia.

Financial sustainability in Italian farms: an analysis of the FADN sample

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriele Dono ◽  
Rebecca Buttinelli ◽  
Raffaele Cortignani
Keyword(s):  
Rural Development ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Production Systems ◽  
Public Support ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Free Cash Flow ◽  
Financial Sustainability ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Random Effects Models ◽  
Financial Variables

PurposeThe paper examines the factors that influence the production of cash flows in a sample of Italian farm accountancy data network (FADN) farms to generate information useful for calibrating policies to support farmers' investments.Design/methodology/approachAn econometric analysis on the sample estimates the influence of structural, economic, commercial and financial variables on CAFFE, i.e. the cash flow that includes the payments to the farmer's resources and the free cash flow on equity (FCFE). The econometric problem of endogeneity is treated by adopting the Hausman test to choose between fixed and random effects models. The results for Italian agriculture and its types of farming (TFs) are examined based on the FCFE/capital depreciation ratio, where FCFE subtracts from CAFFE the opportunity cost payments to the farmer's resources. This ratio identifies TFs with problems of sustainability of the production system.FindingsThe results show that increasing the productive dimension, in particular the endowment of farmland and working capital, is still essential to stimulate the production of cash flows of Italian agriculture. Without this growth, increasing the depreciable capital base is ineffective. FCFE does not compensate for depreciation in several TFs, which in various cases could also improve by improving economic efficiency and commercial position.Research limitations/implicationsAssessing the factors that most influence cash flows can help to better calibrate rural development measures to the territories and farming types that most need public support. Our analysis procedure can be applied to all production systems equipped with farm accounting networks; however, the criteria for rewarding farmer resources and calculating the replacement value of agricultural capital need to be better discussed.Originality/valueThe specification of rural development policies rarely takes into account the financial sustainability conditions of farms, as well as the factors that determine them, in defining the support parameters and the selection criteria for funding. Our approach, based on the analysis of FADN data, considers these aspects and provides ideas for better calibrating public support for investments among agricultural territories, sectors and types of farms.

scholarly journals Cash flow disaggregation and prediction of cash flow

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 464-479 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ehsan Khansalar ◽  
Mohammad Namazi
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Prediction Errors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Balance Sheets ◽  
Income Statement ◽  
Aggregated Model ◽  
Flow Components ◽  
Future Cash Flows

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the incremental information content of estimates of cash flow components in predicting future cash flows. Design/methodology/approach The authors examine whether the models incorporating components of operating cash flow from income statements and balance sheets using the direct method are associated with smaller prediction errors than the models incorporating core and non-core cash flow. Findings Using data from US and UK firms and multiple regression analysis, the authors find that around 60 per cent of a current year’s cash flow will persist into the next period’s cash flows, and that income statement and balance sheet variables persist similarly. The explanatory power and predictive ability of disaggregated cash flow models are superior to that of an aggregated model, and further disaggregating previously applied core and non-core cash flows provides incremental information about income statement and balance sheet items that enhances prediction of future cash flows. Disaggregated models and their components produce lower out-of-sample prediction errors than an aggregated model. Research limitations/implications This study improves our appreciation of the behaviour of cash flow components and confirms the need for detailed cash flow information in accordance with the articulation of financial statements. Practical implications The findings are relevant to investors and analysts in predicting future cash flows and to regulators with respect to disclosure requirements and recommendations. Social implications The findings are also relevant to financial statement users interested in better predicting a firm’s future cash flows and thereby, its firm’s value. Originality/value This paper contributes to the existing literature by further disaggregating cash flow items into their underlying items from income statements and balance sheets.

The impact of cash flow volatility on firm leverage and debt maturity structure: evidence from China

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 69-91 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zulfiqar Ali Memon ◽  
Yan Chen ◽  
Muhammad Zubair Tauni ◽  
Hashmat Ali
Keyword(s):  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Debt Maturity ◽  
Percent Reduction ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Debt Maturity Structure ◽  
Maturity Structure ◽  
Cash Flow Volatility

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the influence of cash flow volatility on firm’s leverage levels. It also analyzes how cash flow volatility influences the debt maturity structure for the Chinese listed firms. Design/methodology/approach The authors construct the measure for cash flow variability as five-year rolling standard deviation of the cash flow from operations. The authors use generalized linear model approach to determine the effect of volatility on leverage. In addition, the authors design a categorical debt maturity variable and assign categories depending upon firm’s usage of debt at various maturity levels. The authors apply Ordered Probit regression to analyze how volatility affects firm’s debt maturity structure. The authors lag volatility and other independent variables in the estimation models so as to eliminate any possible endogeneity problems. Finally, the authors execute various techniques for verifying the robustness of the main findings. Findings The authors provide evidence that higher volatility of cash flows results in lower leverage levels, while the sub-sampling analysis reveals that there is no such inverse association in the case of Chinese state-owned enterprises. The authors also provide novel findings that irrespective of the ownership structure, firms facing high volatility choose debt of relatively shorter maturities and vice versa. Overall, a rise of one standard deviation in volatility causes 8.89 percent reduction in long-term market leverage ratio and 26.62 percent reduction in the likelihood of issuing debentures or long-term notes. Research limitations/implications This study advocates that cash flow volatility is an essential factor for determining both the debt levels and firm’s term-to-maturity structure. The findings of this study can be helpful for the financial managers in maintaining optimal leverage and debt maturity structure, for lenders in reducing their risk of non-performing loans and for investors in their decision-making process. Originality/value Existing empirical literature regarding the influence of variability of cash flows on leverage and debt maturity structure is inconclusive. Moreover, prior research studies mainly focus only on the developed countries. No previous comprehensive study exists so far for Chinese firms in this regard. This paper endeavors to fulfill this research gap by furnishing novel findings in the context of atypical and distinctive institutional setup of Chinese firms.

The effect of auditor industry specialization and board independence on the cash flow reporting classification choices under IFRS: evidence from Taiwan

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shuling Chiang ◽  
Gary Kleinman ◽  
Picheng Lee
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Financial Reporting ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Board Independence ◽  
Firm Level ◽  
Industry Specialization ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Auditor Industry Specialization ◽  
Board Of Director

Purpose This study aims to explore the relationship between audit partner and firm industry specialization and board of director independence on the decision by Taiwanese firms to use International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) flexibility concerning reporting interest income and expense and dividends received in different sections of the statement of cash flows. This flexibility existed in Taiwan for the first time in 2013, the year that Taiwan switched from its own generally accepted accounting principle to IFRS. Design/methodology/approach Using 2013 data for a sample of 1,227 firms, 354 of whom changed their reporting classification, this study examined the interaction effect of board independence and partner-level and firm-level auditor industry specialization on the cash flow reporting decision using logistic regression. Findings The results show there is a substitute relationship between board independence and partner-level industry specialization on the change in cash flow reporting classification, but a complementary relationship between board independence and firm-level auditor specialization. Further, both partner-level and firm-level auditor industry specializations have a complementary (but negative) relationship with board independence as to whether the firm is likely to report interest expense paid in the operating or financing activities sections. Practical implications An important implication is that knowing the levels of audit firm and partner specialization and how independent the board is, is useful for researchers and regulators in investigating auditor-client relationships and understanding the influences of variables investigated here on the outcome(s) of accounting policy and regulatory changes. Originality/value This study improved the field’s understanding of the impacts of audit partner and firm specialization, board independence and relevant interactions on cash flow reporting choices.

Sources of origin of operating cash flows in Polish listed companies

2017 ◽  
Vol 45 (4) ◽  
pp. 69-76
Author(s):  
Edyta Mioduchowska-Jaroszewicz
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Intangible Assets ◽  
Listed Companies ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Investment Expenditure ◽  
Research Hypothesis ◽  
Operating Cash Flows

The aim of the article was to conduct a research on the origin of operating cash flows in Polish listed companies. The main objective of the article was to investigate the level of depreciation and its use in the operating cash flows of companies operating on the Polish capital market. The first was to examine and analyse that depreciation is the main source of the cash flow from businesses. The second hypothesis was a complement to the first hypothesis and concerned the examination of whether 100% of the depreciation was transferred to the investment expenditure. The results of the study presented in the article on depreciation in operating cash flows as the main source of operating cash have been positively confirmed. The average depreciation level ranges from 31% to 47%. The rela-tionship between investment expenditures and depreciation was also examined. Research shows that depreciation is wholly attributable to investment expenditures related to the acquisition of property, plant and equipment and intangible assets, or its value exceeds expenditure. This situation positively confirms the second research hypothesis that depre-ciation is used as investment expenditure.

Capital Market Pressure, Disclosure Frequency-Induced Earnings/Cash Flow Conflict, and Managerial Myopia (Retracted)

2005 ◽  
Vol 80 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sanjeev Bhojraj ◽  
Robert Libby
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Mandatory Reporting ◽  
Managerial Myopia ◽  
Near Term ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Market Pressures ◽  
Market Pressure

We examine the effects of increased capital market pressure and disclosure frequency-induced earnings/cash flow conflict on myopic behavior. In our experiments, experienced financial managers choose between projects where a conflict exists between near-term earnings and total cash flow. Managers more often choose projects that they believe will maximize short-term earnings (and price) as opposed to total cash flows in response to increased capital market pressure resulting from a pending stock issuance, holding constant agency frictions and other stock market pressures. When faced with increased capital market pressure, changes in disclosure frequency cause managers to behave more or less myopically depending on the impact of the change on the pattern of earnings and the resulting earnings/cash flow conflict. Our study provides insights into managers' beliefs about stock market pressures, mandatory reporting, and the availability of alternative communications channels, and contributes to literature on managerial myopia and earnings management, as well as current debates over disclosure frequency.

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