The dependence structure in credit risk between money and derivatives markets

2014 ◽  
Vol 40 (8) ◽  
pp. 758-769
Author(s):  
Weiou Wu ◽  
David G. McMillan
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Money Market ◽  
Distribution Functions ◽  
Gaussian Copula ◽  
Dependence Structure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Dimensional Distribution ◽  
Derivatives Markets

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the dynamic dependence structure in credit risk between the money market and the derivatives market during 2004-2009. The authors use the TED spread to measure credit risk in the money market and CDS index spread for the derivatives market. Design/methodology/approach – The dependence structure is measured by a time-varying Gaussian copula. A copula is a function that joins one-dimensional distribution functions together to form multivariate distribution functions. The copula contains all the information on the dependence structure of the random variables while also removing the linear correlation restriction. Therefore, provides a straightforward way of modelling non-linear and non-normal joint distributions. Findings – The results show that the correlation between these two markets while fluctuating with a general upward trend prior to 2007 exhibited a noticeably higher correlation after 2007. This points to the evidence of credit contagion during the crisis. Three different phases are identified for the crisis period which sheds light on the nature of contagion mechanisms in financial markets. The correlation of the two spreads fell in early 2009, although remained higher than the pre-crisis level. This is partly due to policy intervention that lowered the TED spread while the CDS spread remained higher due to the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis. Originality/value – The paper examines the relationship between the TED and CDS spreads which measure credit risk in an economy. This paper contributes to the literature on dynamic co-movement, contagion effects and risk linkages.

Assessing sovereign risk: the case of rich countries

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 212-225 ◽  
Author(s):  
Norbert Gaillard
Keyword(s):  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Sovereign Debt Crisis ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
Investment Grade ◽  
Rich Countries

Purpose – This paper aims to shed new light on the inability of credit rating agencies (CRAs) to forecast the recent defaults and so-called quasi-defaults of rich countries. It also describes how Moody’s sovereign rating methodology has been modified – and could be further improved – to solve this problem. Design/methodology/approach – After converting bond yields into yield-implied ratings, accuracy ratios are computed to compare the respective performances of CRAs and market participants. Then Iceland’s and Greece’s ratings at the beginning of the Great Recession are estimated while accounting for the parameters included in the new methodology implemented by Moody’s in 2013. Findings – Market participants outperformed Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s in terms of anticipating the sovereign debt crisis that hit several European countries starting in 2008. However, the new methodology implemented by Moody’s should lead to more conservative and accurate sovereign ratings. Originality/value – The chronic inability of CRAs to anticipate public debt crises in rich countries is dangerous because the countries affected – which are generally rated in the investment-grade category – are substantially downgraded, amplifying the sovereign debt crisis. This study is the first to demonstrate that Moody’s has learned from its recent failures. In addition, it recommends ways to detect serious threats to the creditworthiness of high-income countries.

Greek Debt Restructuring Case

2021 ◽  
Vol 195 ◽  
pp. 227-238
Keyword(s):  
International Law ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Secondary Market ◽  
Federal Republic Of Germany ◽  
Debt Restructuring ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Immunity ◽  
Basic Law

227State immunity — Jurisdictional immunity — Exceptions — Acta jure gestionis — Acta jure imperii — Once a trader always a trader — State of emergency — Law-making — Legislature regulating legal relations initially established by acta jure gestionis qualifying as acta jure imperiiEconomics, trade and finance — European Monetary Union — Hellenic Republic — Public debt — Bonds — Greek sovereign debt crisis — Sovereign debt restructuring — Collective Action Clauses — Secondary market — Bond exchange — Financial stabilityRelationship of international law and municipal law — Compatibility with Basic Law of the Federal Republic of Germany — General principle of international law — Article 25 of German Basic Law — Right to a lawful judge — The law of Germany

Venture capital and the financial crisis in Portugal: the VC managers’ viewpoint

2016 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 1032-1056 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos Cabral-Cardoso ◽  
Maria Céu Cortez ◽  
Luísa Lopes
Keyword(s):  
Venture Capital ◽  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Dynamic Environment ◽  
Small Dimension ◽  
Control Mechanisms ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Cumulative Impact ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine, from the venture capital (VC) managers’ perspective, the impact of the international financial and sovereign debt crises on the VC industry in Portugal, and the changes and adjustments VC managers were forced to adopt to their procedures and current practices to cope with these challenges. Design/methodology/approach A two-step research design was adopted to best capture the dynamics of the crisis. Data were collected through in-depth semi-structured interviews and content analysed. The initial set of interviews with ten VC managers was conducted in 2011, immediately before the country bailout; and the second set in 2013, when the full impact of the debt crisis was being felt. Findings The study shows that the crises had a significant impact on the VC industry producing a complex and dynamic environment with high levels of uncertainty. The VC managers’ contradictory perceptions reflect their own struggle to figure out the best way to deal with the pressures in such a volatile environment where new opportunities may also arise. In general, VC firms became more selective adopting a more prudential attitude and tighter control mechanisms. Originality/value This study contributes to the field by analysing, from the VC managers’ perspective, the cumulative impact of the international financial and sovereign debt crisis on a European VC market with specific features: small dimension of the industry operating in a bank-centred capital market and where family-owned SMEs predominate.

Debt crisis will delay Zimbabwe economic recovery

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Debt Financing ◽  
Illegal Immigrants ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Remittance Flows ◽  
Do So

Subject Outlook for Zimbabwe's sovereign debt. Significance Secretary to the Treasury Willard Manungo earlier this month revealed that the government owes its diplomats 10 million dollars in salary arrears. It is the latest development in Zimbabwe's fiscal crunch, worsened by President Robert Mugabe's government's limited access to debt financing. This is forcing it to pursue complex, simultaneous negotiations with multiple creditors. Impacts Limited financing will hurt government plans to import 700,000 tonnes of maize necessary to address drought-induced shortfalls. South Africa's restrictive visa regime and clampdowns on illegal immigrants could begin to hurt remittance flows to Zimbabwe. Former Vice-President Joice Mujuru is unlikely to announce a new party in the short term, but may do so before polls in 2018.

Regulatory response to the financial crisis in Europe: recent developments (2010-2013)

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 29-50 ◽  
Author(s):  
Santiago Carbó-Valverde ◽  
Harald A. Benink ◽  
Tom Berglund ◽  
Clas Wihlborg
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Financial Regulation ◽  
Ad Hoc ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Banking Union ◽  
Content Type ◽  
European Banking Union ◽  
Wide Range

Purpose – The purpose of this paper by the European Shadow Financial Regulatory Committee (ESFRC) is to provide an account of the financial crisis in Europe during the period 2010-2013 and an analysis of how the relevant authorities reacted to the crisis. Design/methodology/approach – These actions included measures taken by central banks, governments or fiscal authorities, and by regulatory or supervisory bodies. In a previous study covering the regulatory developments during the financial crisis up until 2009, issues such as the implementation of Basel III rules in Europe and the (mostly ad hoc and unilateral) resolution mechanisms set in most European countries to fight the crisis were covered. This study focuses on developments since 2010 with a focus on the concerns and actions that emerged with the sovereign debt crisis in the euro area. In particular, the transition from the European Financial Stability Facility to the European Stability Mechanism is assessed. The focus after 2012 has progressively turned to the challenges of the European banking union. Findings – These issues are jointly covered, along with some updates on the views of the ESFRC on recent advances in other areas, such as solvency regulation. All in all, the authors find that the weaknesses of the global financial system remain to be addressed, and they believe that the banking union is one of the main tools and opportunities for an improved and efficient crisis management in Europe. Originality/value – The paper aims at contributing to the study of financial regulation after the banking crisis. The experience of the euro zone in this context is assessed in this article from a wide range of perspectives.

Bank stockholders’ vs bank bondholders’ market discipline during crisis time: an investigation based on supervisory stress test information disclosure

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Moustapha Daouda Dala
Keyword(s):  
Financial Distress ◽  
Information Disclosure ◽  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Stress Test ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Market Discipline ◽  
Content Type ◽  
European Sovereign Debt Crisis ◽  
European Banking

Purpose This paper aims to investigate how stockholders and bondholders react to the information disclosed on the financial markets during crisis periods. This paper considers the 2011 European Banking Authority’s stress test as it disclosed detailed information about banks. Design/methodology/approach It was conducted during the European sovereign debt crisis, and this paper uses an event study methodology. This paper analyzes the average cumulative abnormal returns for different subsamples of banks. This paper compares the reactions of stockholders and bondholders to the stress test by considering pre-results announcements (signal generating process) to the publication of the results on the disclosure date, using quantitative data for each individual bank that participated in the stress test (the signal provided to the financial market). Findings This paper finds that stockholders’ reaction is more sensitive to idiosyncratic components of the disclosed information, whereas bondholders are more influenced by systematic risk. A deeper investigation shows that subordinated bondholders tend to behave quite similarly to stockholders. This specific reaction of stockholders during financial distress may make them more likely than bondholders to impose market discipline during troubled periods. Originality/value This paper brings several new insights to the behavior of stock and bond holders during times of financial distress and makes recommendations to regulators that may serve to refine communication to markets to reduce the shock of negative news.

Banking mergers – an application of matching strategy

2014 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 2-23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nafis Alam ◽  
Seok Lee Ng
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crises ◽  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Rapid Economic Growth ◽  
Normal Period ◽  
Matching Strategy ◽  
Asset Quality ◽  
Country Specific

Purpose – ASEAN region has emerged as a major hotspot for banking mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in Asia. This paper aims to examine the determinants of acquisitions for 47 acquired banks and 33 acquiring banks in ASEAN from 2003 to 2011 by applying matching strategy. Design/methodology/approach – Three binary logistic regressions are estimated in the study to identify the determinants of acquisitions in the ASEAN banking industry. Furthermore, the paper examines the ex ante bank-specific and country-specific characteristics of acquiring and acquired banks which motivate bank acquisitions. Findings – The division of the sample into sub-samples reflects significant changes in the determinants of the likelihood of being acquired over different time periods. In the normal period prior to the financial crises, acquired banks are also found to have greater loan activities. Asset quality and liquidity played important roles in determining the likelihood of being acquired in the period after the onset of the 2007 global financial crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis. Larger banks with higher growth and greater profitability are more likely to engage in acquisitions as acquiring banks rather than as acquired banks. The study indicates that financial crises bring about a change in the determinants of bank acquisitions. Research limitations/implications – The results for the bank-specific determinants are consistent with the growth-resource and inefficient management hypotheses. It is obvious that the involvement of ASEAN banks in acquisitions is strongly motivated by the pursuit of growth, consistent with the rapid economic growth in the region. Originality/value – The study identifies the bank-specific and country-specific characteristics of acquiring and acquired banks which influence their involvement in M&A. The uniqueness of this paper lies in the applied methodology on matching strategy.

Rating sovereign debt in a monetary union – original sin by transnational governance

2015 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 253-283 ◽  
Author(s):  
Finn Marten Körner ◽  
Hans-Michael Trautwein
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Union ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Original Sin ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Local Currency

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to test the hypothesis that major credit rating agencies (CRAs) have been inconsistent in assessing the implications of monetary union membership for sovereign risks. It is frequently argued that CRAs have acted procyclically in their rating of sovereign debt in the European Monetary Union (EMU), underestimating sovereign risk in the early years and over-rating the lack of national monetary sovereignty since the onset of the Eurozone debt crisis. Yet, there is little direct evidence for this so far. While CRAs are quite explicit about their risk assessments concerning public debt that is denominated in foreign currency, the same cannot be said about their treatment of sovereign debt issued in the currency of a monetary union. Design/methodology/approach – While CRAs are quite explicit about their risk assessments concerning public debt that is denominated in foreign currency, the same cannot be said about their treatment of sovereign debt issued in the currency of a monetary union. This paper examines the major CRAs’ methodologies for rating sovereign debt and test their sovereign credit ratings for a monetary union bonus in good times and a malus, akin to the “original sin” problem of emerging market countries, in bad times. Findings – Using a newly compiled dataset of quarterly sovereign bond ratings from 1990 until 2012, the panel regression estimation results find strong evidence that EMU countries received a rating bonus on euro-denominated debt before the European debt crisis and a large penalty after 2010. Practical implications – The crisis has brought to light that EMU countries’ euro-denominated debt may not be considered as local currency debt from a rating perspective after all. Originality/value – In addition to quantifying the local currency bonus and malus, this paper shows the fundamental problem of rating sovereign debt of monetary union members and provide approaches to estimating it over time.

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