VIX and the variance of Dow Jones industrial average stocks

2015 ◽  
Vol 41 (3) ◽  
pp. 226-243
Author(s):  
Andre Mollick
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Dummy Variable ◽  
Aggregate Uncertainty ◽  
Dow Jones Industrial Average ◽  
Variance Equation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Mixture Of Distribution Hypothesis

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine what happens to the variance of individual stocks forming the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) allowing for aggregate uncertainty measured by VIX, the “fear gauge index” of US options contracts. In examining each individual stock belonging to DJIA in 2011, the authors reconsider aggregate market uncertainty (VIX) as the mixing variable. In contrast to studies on the effects of VIX on the aggregate equity market, the data set used in this paper allow a further look at the proposition that market aggregate uncertainty should have varying impact on individual stock variance. Design/methodology/approach – GARCH-M models estimate individual stock returns belonging to the DJIA in 2011 on its lags and on the ARCH-M term in the mean equation linking stock returns to the variance equation. The longest time span has 5,738 observations for most stocks under daily frequency from January 3, 1990 to December 30, 2011. The authors use one lag for the VIX2 term to address simultaneity problems in the variance equation. In order to allow for interactions between volatility and business cycles, the authors include a dummy variable for the three recessions identified by the NBER over the period. Findings – Adding the “fear gauge” VIX index and a dummy variable for recessions to the variance equation in GARCH-M models, the VIX coefficient always increases variance and the recession dummy has mixed effects. Overall, VIX acts as expected as mixing variable. Supporting the mixture of distribution hypothesis, the impact of VIX is always positive (1.039 on market variance) and GARCH effects vanish completely for the index and almost as much for 24 stocks. Research limitations/implications – In theory, the effects of VIX on stock variance should be positive and statistically significant, together with reductions of GARCH persistence. The authors find this to be the case for the aggregate stock market and for 24 out of its 29 DJIA stocks. The authors leave for further work extensions to estimating the variance equation for companies very exposed to idiosyncratic changes, such as oil price fluctuations or stock buybacks. The implication of this research for the academic or financial community relies on the estimation of VIX effects on individual stock variance, controlling for business cycles. Originality/value – Due to its benchmark in equities, stocks in the Dow Jones Industrials make it a very interesting case study. This paper reconsiders the aggregate uncertainty hypothesis for two main reasons. First, the financial press and traders keep a very close track on the daily evolution of VIX. Second, recent research emphasizes the formal predictive power of VIX in US stock markets. For the variance equation, existing works report positive values for the VIX-coefficient on the S&P 500 index but they have not examined individual stocks as the authors do in this paper.

scholarly journals Impact of gold and oil prices on the stock market in Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 25 (50) ◽  
pp. 279-294
Author(s):  
Aiza Shabbir ◽  
Shazia Kousar ◽  
Syeda Azra Batool
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Current Data ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of the study is to find out the impact of gold and oil prices on the stock market. Design/methodology/approach This study uses the data on gold prices, stock exchange and oil prices for the period 1991–2016. This study applied descriptive statistics, augmented Dickey–Fuller test, correlation and autoregressive distributed lag test. Findings The data analysis results showed that gold and oil prices have a significant impact on the stock market. Research limitations/implications Following empirical evidence of this study, the authors recommend that investors should invest in gold because the main reason is that hike in inflation reduces the real value of money, and people seek to invest in alternative investment avenues like gold to preserve the value of their assets and earn additional returns. This suggests that investment in gold can be used as a tool to decline inflation pressure to a sustainable level. This study was restricted to use small sample data owing to the availability of data from 1991 to 2017 and could not use structural break unit root tests with two structural break and structural break cointegration approach, as these tests require high-frequency data set. Originality/value This study provides information to the investors who want to get the benefit of diversification by investing in gold, oil and stock market. In the current era, gold prices and oil prices are fluctuating day by day, and investors think that stock returns may or may not be affected by these fluctuations. This study is unique because it focusses on current issues and takes the current data in this research to help investment institutions or portfolio managers.

Increasing revenue and attendance in Canadian Baptist churches

2015 ◽  
Vol 42 (12) ◽  
pp. 1071-1089
Author(s):  
Alan Chan ◽  
Bruce G. Fawcett ◽  
Shu-Kam Lee
Keyword(s):  
Church Health ◽  
Eastern Canada ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Scarce Resources ◽  
Baptist Churches ◽  
And Performance ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Simulation Exercises

Purpose – Church giving and attendance are two important indicators of church health and performance. In the literature, they are usually understood to be simultaneously determined. The purpose of this paper is to estimate if there a sustainable church congregation size using Wintrobe’s (1998) dictatorship model. The authors want to examine the impact of youth and adult ministry as well. Design/methodology/approach – Using the data collected from among Canadian Baptist churches in Eastern Canada, this study investigates the factors affecting the level of the two indicators by the panel-instrumental variable technique. Applying Wintrobe’s (1998) political economy model on dictatorship, the equilibrium level of worship attendance and giving is predicted. Findings – Through various simulation exercises, the actual church congregation sizes is approximately 50 percent of the predicted value, implying inefficiency and misallocation of church resources. The paper concludes with insights on effective ways church leaders can allocate scarce resources to promote growth within churches. Originality/value – The authors are the only researchers getting the permission from the Atlantic Canada Baptist Convention to use their mega data set on church giving and congregation sizes as per the authors’ knowledge. The authors are also applying a theoretical model on dictatorship to religious/not for profits organizations.

The performance of the Broad Based Black Economic Empowerment compliant listed property firms in South Africa

2016 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-26 ◽  
Author(s):  
Omokolade Akinsomi ◽  
Katlego Kola ◽  
Thembelihle Ndlovu ◽  
Millicent Motloung
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Factor Model ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Sharpe Ratio ◽  
Economic Empowerment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Black Economic ◽  
Black Economic Empowerment ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of Broad-Based Black Economic Empowerment (BBBEE) on the risk and returns of listed and delisted property firms on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). The study was investigated to understand the impact of Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) property sector charter and effect of government intervention on property listed markets. Design/methodology/approach – The study examines the performance trends of the listed and delisted property firms on the JSE from January 2006 to January 2012. The data were obtained from McGregor BFA database to compute the risk and return measures of the listed and delisted property firms. The study employs a capital asset pricing model (CAPM) to derive the alpha (outperformance) and beta (risk) to examine the trend amongst the BEE and non-BEE firms, Sharpe ratio was also employed as a measurement of performance. A comparative study is employed to analyse the risks and returns between listed property firms that are BEE compliant and BEE non-compliant. Findings – Results show that there exists differences in returns and risk between BEE-compliant firms and non-BEE-compliant firms. The study shows that BEE-compliant firms have higher returns than non-BEE firms and are less risky than non-BEE firms. By establishing this relationship, this possibly affects the investor’s decision to invest in BEE firms rather than non-BBBEE firms. This study can also assist the government in strategically adjusting the policy. Research limitations/implications – This study employs a CAPM which is a single-factor model. Further study could employ a multi-factor model. Practical implications – The results of this investigation, with the effects of BEE on returns, using annualized returns, the Sharpe ratio and alpha (outperformance), results show that BEE firms perform better than non-BEE firms. These results pose several implications for investors particularly when structuring their portfolios, further study would need to examine the role of BEE on stock returns in line with other factors that affect stock returns. The results in this study have several implications for government agencies, there may be the need to monitor the effect of the BEE policies on firm returns and re-calibrate policies accordingly. Originality/value – This study investigates the performance of listed property firms on the JSE which are BEE compliant. This is the first study to investigate listed property firms which are BEE compliant.

The value relevance of capital expenditures and the business cycle

2018 ◽  
Vol 35 (3) ◽  
pp. 386-406 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sungsoo Kim ◽  
Brandon byunghwan Lee
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Value Relevance ◽  
Financial Data ◽  
Capital Expenditures ◽  
Capital Investments ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
Business Conditions

Purpose This paper aims to clarify the relationship between corporate capital investments and business cycles. Specifically, a major purpose of this paper is to investigate whether there are inherent differences in corporate investment patterns and whether the stock market exhibits different reactions to the value relevance of capital expenditures across different business conditions. Design/methodology/approach The authors use pooled ordinary least square regressions with archival stock price data and financial data from CRSP and Compustat. The authors regress buy and hold returns on the main test variables and control variables that are identified to be related to the investment literature. Findings This paper provides empirical evidence that US firms’ capital expenditures are more value relevant to capital market participants during expansionary business cycles and, conversely, less value relevant during contractionary business cycles. This evidence validates previous literature that has found the information content of capital expenditures to be uncertain and cyclical in nature. Research limitations/implications The main limitation of this paper, as with other work dealing with stock returns and archived financial data, is that the authors try to match stock returns with contemporaneous financial data in an association study context. The precise mapping in this methodology is always challenging and has been questioned in the literature. Practical implications This paper has various implications for capital market participants. Capital expenditures are good news for investors, but they will make a better investment when firms make capital investments during an expansionary period. Creditors deciding whether to extend credit to firms would benefit from more accurate information on the viability of long-term investment. The results also suggest to creditors that an excessive number of loans during the contractionary period may be suboptimal because firms’ returns on capital investment are smaller in that period than in the expansionary period. Social implications Given the valuation of implications of long-term capital investments across different business conditions, this paper sheds light on asset allocations for mutual funds, institutional investors who are entrusted with investors’ investments including retirement funds. Originality/value This paper fulfils an identified need to study how capital investments are valued differently across different business conditions.

Epidemics and Chinese firms' stock returns: is COVID-19 different?

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Quang Thi Thieu Nguyen ◽  
Dao Le Trang Anh ◽  
Christopher Gan
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Market Performance ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Stock Exchanges ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Event Study Method ◽  
Economic Shock ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis study investigates the Chinese stocks' returns during different epidemic periods to assess their effects on firms' market performance.Design/methodology/approachThe study employs an event study method on more than 3,000 firms listed on Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges during periods of SARS, H5N1, H7N9 and COVID-19FindingsEpidemics' effect on firms' stock returns is persistent up to 10 days after the event dates. Although the impact varies with types and development of the disease, most firms experience a negative impact of the epidemics. Among the epidemics, COVID-19 has the greatest impact, especially when it grows into a pandemic. The epidemics' impact is uneven across industries. In addition, B-shares and stocks listed on Shanghai Stock Exchange are more negatively influenced by the epidemic than A-shares and those listed on Shenzhen Stock Exchange.Research limitations/implicationsThe results of the study contribute to the limited literature on the effects of disease outbreaks as an economic shock on firm market performance. Given the possibility of other epidemics in the future, the study provides guidance for investors in designing an appropriate investing strategy to cope with the epidemic shocks to the market.Originality/valueThe research is novel in the way it compares and assesses the economic impact of different epidemics on firms and considers their impact at different development stages.

Does the second wave of COVID-19 undermine corporate immunity? International evidence

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Huy Viet Hoang ◽  
Cuong Nguyen ◽  
Khanh Hoang
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
The United States ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Practical Implications

PurposeThis study compares the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on stock returns in the first two waves of infection across selected markets, given built-in corporate immunity before the global outbreak.Design/methodology/approachThe data are collected from listed firms in five markets that have experienced the second wave of COVID-19 contagion, namely the United States (US), Australia, China, Hong Kong and South Korea. The period of investigation in this study ranges from January 24 to August 28, 2020 to cover the first two COVID-19 waves in selected markets. The study estimates the research model by employing the ordinary least square method with fixed effects to control for the heterogeneity that may confound the empirical outcomes.FindingsThe analysis reveals that firms with larger size and more cash reserves before the COVID-19 outbreak have better stock performance under the first wave; however, these advantages impede stock resilience during the second wave. Corporate governance practices significantly influence stock returns only in the first wave as their effects fade when the second wave emerges. The results also suggest that in economies with greater power distance, although stock price depreciation was milder in the first wave, it is more intense when new cases again surge after the first wave was contained.Practical implicationsThis paper provides practical implications for corporate managers, policymakers and governments concerning crisis management strategies for COVID-19 and future pandemics.Originality/valueThis study is the first to evaluate built-in corporate immunity before the COVID-19 shock under successive contagious waves. Besides, this study accentuates the importance of cultural understanding in weathering the ongoing pandemic across different markets.

A quantile regression approach to evaluate the relative impact of global and local factors on the MENA stock markets

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Slah Bahloul ◽  
Nawel Ben Amor
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Quantile Regression ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Financial Integration ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis paper investigates the relative importance of local macroeconomic and global factors in the explanation of twelve MENA (Middle East and North Africa) stock market returns across the different quantiles in order to determine their degree of international financial integration.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use both ordinary least squares and quantile regressions from January 2007 to January 2018. Quantile regression permits to know how the effects of explanatory variables vary across the different states of the market.FindingsThe results of this paper indicate that the impact of local macroeconomic and global factors differs across the quantiles and markets. Generally, there are wide ranges in degree of international integration and most of MENA stock markets appear to be weakly integrated. This reveals that the portfolio diversification within the stock markets in this region is still beneficial.Originality/valueThis paper is original for two reasons. First, it emphasizes, over a fairly long period, the impact of a large number of macroeconomic and global variables on the MENA stock market returns. Second, it examines if the relative effects of these factors on MENA stock returns vary or not across the market states and MENA countries.

The impact of organizational position level and cultural flow direction on the relationship between cultural intelligence and expatriate cross-border adaptation

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ying Zhang ◽  
Yuran Li ◽  
Mark Frost ◽  
Shiyu Rong ◽  
Rong Jiang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cultural Intelligence ◽  
Flow Direction ◽  
Power Distance ◽  
Cultural Adjustment ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Organizational Position ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeThis paper aims to examine the critical role played by cultural flow in fostering successful expatriate cross-border transitions.Design/methodology/approachThe authors develop and test a model on the interplay among cultural intelligence, organizational position level, cultural flow direction and expatriate adaptation, using a data set of 387 expatriate on cross-border transitions along the Belt & Road area.FindingsThe authors find that both organizational position level and cultural flow moderate the relationship between cultural intelligence and expatriate adaptation, whereby the relationship is contingent on the interaction of organizational position status and assignment directions between high power distance and low power distance host environments.Originality/valuePrevious research has shown that higher levels of cultural intelligence are positively related to better expatriate adaptation. However, there is a lack of research on the effect of position difference and cultural flow on such relationship. Our study is among the first to examine how the interaction between cultural flow and organizational position level influences the cultural intelligence (CI) and cultural adjustment relationship in cross-cultural transitions.

Stock markets' reaction to COVID-19: evidence from the six WHO regions

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Anas Ali Al-Qudah ◽  
Asma Houcine
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Western Pacific ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Panel Data Regression ◽  
Daily Stock Returns ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis study investigates the effects of the COVID-19 outbreak on daily stock returns for the six major affected WHO Regions, namely: Africa, Americas, Eastern Mediterranean, Europe, South-East Asia and Western Pacific.Design/methodology/approachThis study uses an event study method and panel-data regression models to examine the effect of the daily increase in the number of COVID-19 confirmed cases on daily stock returns from 1 March to 1 August 2020 for the leading stock market in major affected countries in the WHO regions.FindingsThe results reveal an adverse impact of the daily increasing number of COVID-19 cases on stock returns and stock markets fell quickly in response to the pandemic. The findings also suggest that negative market reaction was strong during the early stage of the outbreak between the 26th and 35th days after the initial confirmed cases. We further find that stock markets in the Western Pacific region experienced more negative abnormal returns as compared to other regions. The results also confirm that feelings of fear among investors turned out to be a mediator and a transmission channel for the effect of COVID-19 outbreak on the stock markets.Research limitations/implicationsThis study contributes to financial literature in two ways. First, we contribute to existing literature that has examined the effect of various catastrophes and crises on the stock markets Second, we contribute to the recent emerging literature that examines the impact of COVID-19 on financial markets.Practical implicationsThe study may have implications for policymakers to deal with this outbreak without triggering uncertainty in stock markets and reassure investors' confidence. The study may also be of interest to investors, managers, financial analysts by revealing how the stock markets quickly respond to outbreaks.Originality/valueThis study is the first study to examine the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on the leading stock markets of the WHO regions.

Exploring the impact of intellectual capital on company reputation and performance

2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (5) ◽  
pp. 915-934 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gianluca Ginesti ◽  
Adele Caldarelli ◽  
Annamaria Zampella
Keyword(s):  
Human Capital ◽  
Intellectual Capital ◽  
Corporate Reputation ◽  
Intangible Asset ◽  
Competition Authority ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Capital Efficiency ◽  
And Performance ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyse the impact of intellectual capital (IC) on the reputation and performance of Italian companies. Design/methodology/approach The paper exploits a unique data set of 452 non-listed companies that obtained a reputational assessment from the Italian Competition Authority (ICA). To test the hypotheses, this study implemented several regression analyses. Findings Results support the argument that human capital efficiency is a key driver of corporate reputation. Findings also reveal that companies, which obtained reputational rating under ICA scrutiny, show a positive relationship between IC elements and various measures of financial performance. Research limitations/implications The study focuses on a single country; it is not free from the imprecisions of Pulic’s VAIC model. Practical implications This paper recommends companies that are interested to achieve a robust reputation should consider the human capital as a strategic intangible asset. Second, the results suggest that companies with an ICA reputational rating are able to leverage their intangibles to potentiate performance and competitiveness. Originality/value This is the first empirical investigation on the contribution of IC in generating value for corporate reputation. Additionally, the study contributes to the literature on the link between IC and performance by examining a sample of firms not yet explored in prior research.

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