scholarly journals International risk spillover in sovereign credit markets: an empirical analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 45 (8) ◽  
pp. 1020-1040 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saker Sabkha ◽  
Christian de Peretti ◽  
Dorra Mezzez Hmaied
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Credit Markets ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Sovereign Credit ◽  
Regulatory Policies

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to study the volatility spillover among 33 worldwide sovereign Credit Default Swap (CDS) markets and their underlying bond markets. Design/methodology/approach In contrast to prior studies, the authors incorporate heteroscedasticity, asymmetric leverage effects and long-memory features of sovereign credit spreads simultaneously through a bivariate FIEGARCH model and a Bayesian cointegrated vector autoregressive model. Findings Similar to the literature, the findings confirm that strong evidence of credit risk spillover between credit markets is accentuated during two recent crisis periods. However, the country-by-country analysis indicates that countries exhibit different sensitivity levels and divergent reactions to financial shocks. Further, the authors show that the bidirectional interrelationship evolves over time and across countries emphasizing the necessity of time-varying national regulatory policies and trading positions. Originality/value Based on a large data set that covers the recent two financial crises and using complex methods, the work focuses on sovereign tensions that have repercussions on banks’ solvency and refinancing conditions. Yet, the study is a hot topic since that during crisis periods in the financial markets, direct and indirect interconnections increase between sovereign risk and banking risk. Using new econometric approaches, the results show that each country exhibits a different behavior toward the credit risk which is relevant to both portfolio managers and policy makers. The time-varying spillover effects detected between markets are an accurate indicator of financial stability, allowing policy makers to put in place personalized economic policies. On the other hand, markets’ participants could take advantages of the results by adjusting their trading and hedging positions on the dynamic co-movements. The findings reveal, as well, that the sovereign crisis has more weakened the global financial and banking system than the subprime crisis. The authors previously tackled the cross-country contagion phenomenon in the CDS markets, and this manuscript builds on the prior study to enhance the obtained results.

ECB's unconventional monetary policy and spillover effects between sovereign and bank credit risk

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ioannis Katsampoxakis
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Credit Risk ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Bank Credit ◽  
Unconventional Monetary Policy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Sovereign Credit ◽  
Sovereign Credit Risk

PurposeThe paper examines the impact of the deteriorating fiscal conditions of Eurozone countries on spillover effects on bank credit margins. It is investigated whether these effects have been reduced after European Central Bank’s (ECB) signaling of pursuing an expansionary, unconventional, monetary policy to address the debt crisis in Eurozone.Design/methodology/approachA general econometric panel model is applied to investigate spillover effects between Eurozone countries and bank credit margins. In total, three periods are examined: the period before the peak of the global financial crisis and the beginning of the Irish banking crisis, the period during the debt and bank crisis in Eurozone and the period after ECB's signaling of extremely aggressive monetary easing.FindingsAccording to empirical results, before the peak of the global financial crisis there was no substantial credit risk transfer from Eurozone sovereigns to banks. During the period of debt and bank crisis in Eurozone, the deterioration of the fiscal situation of Eurozone countries had a significant impact on bank Credit Default Swap (CDS) spreads. After ECB's signaling of extremely aggressive monetary easing, it does not seem to be any significant relationship between Eurozone sovereigns and bank CDS spreads. These findings reinforce the assessment that ECB's measures were effective, achieving the key objective of normalizing economic conditions and ensuring financial stability in Eurozone.Research limitations/implicationsA question is whether effects can change when the corresponding contraction will lead to a reinstatement of “normal” conditions. Would there be a reversal of risk premium trends in bond markets? Although the answer from casual observations seems to be negative, it is a valid research question to be examined. An interesting issue concerning the unconventional monetary policy measures implemented by ECB concerns the issues of moral hazard that they incorporate, something that could not be addressed. Another research perspective could be the use of the beta coefficient to measure the systematic and unsystematic risk of banking sector shares.Practical implicationsThe results have strong implications for ECB and European banking regulation. Regulators should mainly pay more attention to the amount and concentration of sovereign debt held by banks. Eurozone financial system could be less vulnerable to the sovereign credit risk. It raised the critical question of whether a more strict regulation is needed. Regulators should not intervene if not necessary, but they must prevent the transmission of crises between markets. This will likely bring trust to the developed countries' sovereign debt and the portfolios of the financial institutions, which hold most of this debt will be considered safe as well.Social implicationsThe conclusions provide a safe counterweight in various respects. First, the negative effects and the need to rapidly cease or limit such policies. Second, the financial stability aimed by ECB. Such policies contain the possibility of a subsequent moral hazard related to Member State and bank behavior. However, these contingencies need to be assessed with the benefits resulting from the restoration of financial markets and the disconnection between banking and sovereign credit risk. This leads Eurozone's financial system to become less vulnerable to the sovereign credit risk and therefore more safe, helping to restore confidence in the real economy.Originality/valueContribution in terms of methodology and conclusions. It offers important conclusions regarding the limitations of yields and volatility of CDS spreads. It examines the spillover effects of the fiscal situation of Eurozone countries on banking institutions by extending the existing methodology and introducing new questions focusing on the reaction of CDS market to the ECB monetary policy, the reduction of risk premiums at sovereign and banking level and the gradual reduction of interdependence between them.

scholarly journals The COVID-19 pandemic and sovereign credit risk

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei-Fong Pan ◽  
Xinjie Wang ◽  
Ge Wu ◽  
Weike Xu
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Credit Default Swap ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Sovereign Credit ◽  
Panel Regressions ◽  
Credit Default ◽  
Sovereign Credit Risk ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to examine the effects of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads using a large sample of countries.Design/methodology/approachIn this paper, the authors use a wide set of the sovereign CDS data of 78 countries. To measure the magnitude of the COVID-19 pandemic, the authors use the daily change of confirmed cases collected from Our World in Data. They use panel regressions to estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on sovereign credit risk.FindingsThe authors show how sovereign CDS spreads have widened significantly in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Based on the most conservative estimate, a 1% increase in COVID-19 infections leads to a 0.17% increase in sovereign CDS spreads. Furthermore, this effect is stronger for developing countries and countries with worse healthcare systems. Government policies partially offset the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, although these same policies also lead to widening sovereign CDS spreads. Sovereign CDS spreads narrow dramatically several months after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Overall, the results suggest that the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has been a massive shock to the global financial stability.Originality/valueThis paper provides new evidence that COVID-19 widens sovereign CDS spreads. The authors further show that this widening effect is felt most strongly in developing economies.

Banks’ international assets and sovereign default risk

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Filippo Gori
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
Default Risk ◽  
Sovereign Default ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Sovereign Credit ◽  
Developed Economies ◽  
Sovereign Default Risk ◽  
Sovereign Credit Risk ◽  
Using Data ◽  
International Assets

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the nexus between banks’ foreign assets and sovereign default risk in a panel of 15 developed economies. The empirical evidence suggests that banks’ foreign exposure is an important determinant of sovereign default probability. Design/methodology/approach Using data from the consolidated banking statistics (total foreign claims on ultimate risk basis) by the Bank of International Settlements, the author constructs a measure of bank international exposure to peer countries. This measure is then used as the target variable in a panel regression for sovereign credit default swaps. The model includes 15 European and non-European developed economies. Identification is discussed extensively in the paper. Findings Quantitatively, a 1% increase in banks’ cross-border claims increases sovereign default risk by about 0.19%. The relationship is weaker when banks are more capitalised. On the other hand, governments are more vulnerable to credit risk spillovers from banks’ international portfolios when having higher debt to GDP ratios. Originality/value To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first paper that attempts explicitly to establish an empirical connection between banks’ international assets and sovereign default risk. To the author’s opinion, this paper represents a contribution to our understanding of how sovereign credit risk spills over across countries. It also extends significantly the existing literature on the determinants of sovereign risk (that primarily focused on fundamentals, market characteristics – such as liquidity – and global factors). This paper ultimately sheds some new light on the role of intermediaries in the international transmission of credit risk, also adding to today’s discussion about the linkages between banks and sovereigns.

scholarly journals Financial and economic stability as ‘two sides of a coin’

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 327-353 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Ali Nasir ◽  
Mushtaq Ahmad ◽  
Ferhan Ahmad ◽  
Junjie Wu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Strong Association ◽  
Price Stability ◽  
Economic Stability ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Real ◽  
Stability And Instability

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to provide a different context for considering issues of financial stability and instability, with reference to economic growth and price stability in particular. Design/methodology/approach – This paper pursued an empirical exploration of six pillars of financial stability, based on a data set for the UK extending from 1985 (Q1) to 2008 (Q2), through the construction of a vector error correction model, including an impulse response function analysis. Findings – The findings show a strong association between the financial and economic stability even in a non-crisis regime. This includes, for example, a strong association exists between the stock market and the real economy; exchange rate appreciation may not provide for long-term real economic growth; inflation does not contribute to real economic growth, both the sensitivity of the economy to yields and a significant lag in transitional effects from financial markets to the real sector; a positive role of credit creation within a non-crisis regime; exchange rate appreciation affects purchasing power; and potential points of linkage between sovereign debt activity and general price levels. Research limitations/implications – The findings should be considered in the context of a concept of the economy as fundamentally dynamic and subject to complex cumulative processes. Practical implications – The findings indicate there is a role for state oversight and intervention within a non-crisis regime based on the complexity of possible interactions that may undermine financial and price stability, with consequences for their association with economic growth. Originality/value – The study provides a new perspective for considering issues of financial stability and instability.

The relationship between risk, capital and efficiency in Indian banking: Does ownership matter?

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 218-231
Author(s):  
Sanjukta Sarkar ◽  
Rudra Sensarma ◽  
Dipasha Sharma
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Credit Risk ◽  
Large Data ◽  
Foreign Banks ◽  
Risk Capital ◽  
Lower Efficiency ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Balance Sheets ◽  
Indian Banks

Purpose This paper aims to examine the interplay between risk, capital and efficiency of Indian banks and study how their relationship differs across different ownership types. Design/methodology/approach Panel regression techniques are used to analyze a large data set of all Indian scheduled commercial banks operating during the period 2008-2016. Findings The results show that lower efficiency is associated with higher credit risk in the case of public sector and old private sector banks (”bad management hypothesis”). However, higher efficiency leads to higher credit risk in the case of foreign banks (“cost skimping hypothesis”). The authors further find that the more efficient institutions among public sector hold more capital. Finally, they find that the better-capitalized banks among those in the public sector have lower risks on their balance sheets (“moral hazard hypothesis”). Originality/value There is a paucity of papers on the interplay between risk, capital and efficiency of banks in emerging economies. This paper is the first to study the inter-relationship between risk, capital and efficiency of Indian banks across ownership groups using a number of different measures of risk.

Chronic Absenteeism in the Classroom Context: Effects on Achievement

2015 ◽  
Vol 54 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-34 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael A. Gottfried
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Context Effects ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Classroom Context ◽  
Urban District ◽  
Chronic Absenteeism ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
School Year ◽  
Reading And Math

Although educational policy makers uphold that chronic absenteeism (missing 10% or more of the school year) is damaging to students’ schooling outcomes, there is little empirical research to match. This study considers the role of spillover effects of chronic absenteeism on classmates’ achievement. It does so by utilizing a large-scale administrative urban district data set of elementary schoolchildren—a sample of students where the rates of chronic absenteeism are expected to be higher compared with the national average. The results show that students suffer academically from having chronically absent classmates—as exhibited across both reading and math testing outcomes. Chronic absenteeism not only had a damaging effect on those individuals missing excessive school days but also has the potential to reduce outcomes for others in the same educational setting.

Do the flipped impacts of hotels matter to the popularity of Airbnb?

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bowen Yi ◽  
Da Shi ◽  
Fangfang Shi ◽  
Liang Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Set Covering ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Competitive Effects ◽  
Competition Theory ◽  
Relationship Model ◽  
Hotel Managers ◽  
Multidimensional Effects

Purpose By building on cooperation–competition theory, this study aims to investigate the multidimensional flipped effects of neighborhood hotels on Airbnb listings’ popularity, examining the degree to which such impacts are influenced by hotel types and geographical areas. Design/methodology/approach This study explores the interdependent and competitive relationship between neighborhood hotels and Airbnb from the perspective of effects on Airbnb listings’ popularity by exploring a data set covering 10,492 Airbnb listings and 2,691 hotels from Ctrip. Findings Results reveal that neighborhood hotels’ number of reviews, review ratings and prices each have positive spillover effects on Airbnb listings’ popularity, while quality assurance labels and negative review topic sentiments exert competitive effects on Airbnb popularity. Moreover, the number of budget chain hotels and high-star hotels have positive and negative effects on Airbnb popularity, respectively. Geographical areas also have a moderating effect on the relationship between various hotel-related influencing factors and Airbnb. Practical implications This study can offer hotel managers and Airbnb operators a clearer understanding of these businesses’ coexisting relationship. Findings can also provide Airbnb-specific guidelines for practitioners in terms of site selection, promotional features and development strategies for Airbnb listings. Originality/value This study establishes a cooperation–competition relationship model between hotels and Airbnb and considers the flipped effects of hotels on Airbnb for the first time. It expands previous studies by considering the multidimensional effects of hotels on Airbnb listings’ popularity and by examining the influences of hotel types and geographical areas on hotels’ impacts on Airbnb.

The inter-relationships among liquidity creation, bank capital and credit risk: evidence from emerging Asia–Pacific economies

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tu D.Q. Le ◽  
Xuan T.T. Pham
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Capital Requirements ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Bank Capital ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Small Banks

PurposeThis study investigates the inter-relationships among liquidity creation, bank capital and credit risk in selected emerging economies between 2012 and 2016.Design/methodology/approachA three-step procedure as proposed by Berger and Bouwman (2009) is used to measure liquidity creation. Thereafter, a simultaneous equations model with the generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator is used to examine the links between liquidity creation, bank capital and credit risk.FindingsThe findings indicate that bank capital and credit risk affect each other positively after controlling for liquidity creation. Also, the findings show a negative impact of credit risk on liquidity creation while our findings do not find any evidence to confirm the reverse relationship between them. Furthermore, the findings demonstrate a two-way negative relationship between liquidity creation and bank capital in these emerging economies. Finally, the results indicate a positive relationship between capital and credit risk, especially in the case of small banks in the sample.Practical implicationsThe findings suggest that the trade-off between the benefits of financial stability induced by tightening capital requirements and those of improved liquidity creation has crucial implications for policymakers and bank regulators in making the banking system more resilient. A positive impact of capital on credit risk emphasizes that the authorities in selected emerging economies should put more attention on small banks to ensure their exposures under target control.Originality/valueThis is the first study that examines the dynamic interrelationships among liquidity creation, bank capital and credit risk in the Asia–Pacific region.

The connectedness between Sukuk and conventional bond markets and the implications for investors

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Aristeidis Samitas ◽  
Spyros Papathanasiou ◽  
Drosos Koutsokostas
Keyword(s):  
Asset Allocation ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Bond Markets ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Volatility Spillovers ◽  
Exogenous Shocks ◽  
Time Varying Parameter ◽  
Optimal Hedge

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the connectedness across a variety of Sukuk and conventional bond indices and the implications for optimal asset allocation for the period January 1, 2010–April 30, 2020. Design/methodology/approach The data set consists of five major Sukuk (Dow Jones Sukuk, Thompson Reuters BPA Malaysia Sukuk, Indonesia Government Sukuk, S&P MENA Sukuk and Tadawul Sukuk and Bonds Index) and five conventional bond indexes, one for developed (USA) and four for emerging markets (Malaysia, Indonesia, Africa and Qatar). This study investigates the connectedness and volatility spillover effects across the aforementioned indices, by following the Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) approach, based on the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model. In addition, this paper provides optimal hedge ratios and portfolio weights for investors. Findings The empirical results show that Sukuk and conventional bond markets are highly integrated and that total connectedness exhibits sensitivity to exogenous shocks. The Dow Jones and the Malaysian Sukuk indices are the primary shock transmitters to other markets. However, the weak volatility spillovers between the Dow Jones and conventional bonds suggest that opportunities for optimal asset allocation may in fact exist. The highest (lowest) hedging effectiveness can be achieved by taking a short position in Malaysian (Qatarian) bonds. Originality/value To the best of the knowledge, this is the largest sample taken into account to investigate the connectedness between Sukuk and conventional bonds.

M&As in Africa – effects of law and governance

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (5) ◽  
pp. 873-898
Author(s):  
Alex Lundqvist ◽  
Eva Liljeblom ◽  
Anders Löflund ◽  
Benjamin Maury
Keyword(s):  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Extensive Study ◽  
Foreign Firms ◽  
Partial Control ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Heritage Foundation ◽  
Transparency International ◽  
Shareholder Protection ◽  
And Performance

Purpose The cultural and legal differences between foreign acquirers and African target firms can be substantial. There is also a large variation in cultures and legal systems within Africa. However, there is limited research on merger and acquisition (M&A) performance by foreign firms in Africa. The purpose of this paper is to fill this gap by exploring the “spillover by law” hypothesis (Martynova and Renneboog, 2008) that focuses on the influence of the external environment on the governance and performance of foreign M&As in Africa. Design/methodology/approach The data set covers 415 M&A transactions by foreign firms in Africa during the period of 1999–2016. Dynamic data covering the country’s legal, cultural and political environment are collected from the World Bank, the Heritage Foundation and Transparency International. Findings The authors find that the legal environment significantly affects the returns of bidders on African firms. For complete acquisitions, bidder returns are significantly higher when the bidder’s country has higher shareholder protection and higher creditor protection compared with the target firm’s country. The results show that the effects are significant when there is a full control change (including a change in the target firm’s nationality) but not in the case of partial control transfers. The results are consistent with the “spillover by law” hypothesis. Originality/value The authors contribute to the literature on cross-border M&As by separately studying the valuation effects of full, majority and minority changes in control; by being the first study of the legal spillover effects in Africa; and by being the most extensive study of the legal determinants of the valuations of non-African acquirers of African firms.

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