Hollande may stand again but right look stronger

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The Political ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
Marine Le Pen ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Right ◽  
New Generation ◽  
Nicolas Sarkozy

Subject The political outlook after the 'departement' elections. Significance Following the March 2015 'departement' elections, four candidates are emerging as front-runners for the 2017 presidential election in their respective camps. After enjoying a political comeback in recent months and seeing internal Socialist Party (PS) and other left-wing opposition sidelined, President Francois Hollande will now almost certainly be able to run for re-election as the PS candidate. Former Prime Minister Alain Juppe and former President Nicolas Sarkozy are battling for control of the centre-right, divided principally by strategy towards immigration, Islam and the National Front (FN). FN leader Marine Le Pen has emerged from a decisive showdown with her father as an even stronger far-right candidate. The political landscape has shifted to the right. Impacts Having re-established some stability around his presidency, Hollande is now unlikely to risk it by pursuing economic reforms. Hollande could aggravate divisions among the Greens and on the far left by including Green ministers in the government in coming months. As potential presidents, both Juppe and Sarkozy appear willing to engage in substantial structural reform. Jean-Marie Le Pen's final political exit will allow a new generation to take definitive charge of the FN and complete its 'detoxification'.

Denmark's weak new government faces complex alliances

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The Political ◽  
Political Strategy ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Social Democrats ◽  
Content Type ◽  
People's Party ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
The Government ◽  
Political Spectrum ◽  
The Right

Significance The new government will have only 34 of the 179 seats, because policy differences among the right-wing parties, and the political strategy of the electorally strengthened anti-immigration, Euro-sceptic Danish People's Party (DF), mean DF will remain outside. Policy-making will be difficult. The government will be more economically liberal and pro-EU than it would have been with DF, but to make policy it will rely on partners across the political spectrum, especially the ousted Social Democrats -- who remain the largest party -- and DF. Impacts If DF is seen as a welfarist protector of ordinary citizens, it is more likely to repeat, at least, its 22% vote in the next election. The much-tighter immigration regime which is in prospect could taint Denmark's image and make it less attractive to foreign investment. The new government is likely to be an ally for much of UK Prime Minister David Cameron's EU reform agenda.

Political restructuring is on the way in Brazil

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
General Election ◽  
The Political ◽  
Liberal Party ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Social Democrats ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Protest Movements ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
President Elect

Subject Changes to the political landscape. Significance This year’s general election has transformed the political landscape that prevailed for over two decades in Brazil. The centre-right Social Democrats (PSDB) were pushed away from the mainstream by a surging far-right led by President-elect Jair Bolsonaro. After winning four straight presidential elections, the Workers’ Party (PT) was defeated in the runoff. It retains some leverage, but now faces increasingly serious challenges to its hegemony on the centre-left. Impacts Ineffective management of relations with Congress could undermine Bolsonaro’s ability to pass key legislation. Protest movements not aligned to established parties could proliferate in the coming years. Bolsonaro’s Social Liberal Party (PSL) will fail to establish itself as a leading party in the longer term.

Divided vote raises pressure on Austria's government

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The Political ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Run Off ◽  
Economic Stagnation ◽  
The Government

Significance In the final run-off round that took place on May 22, Van der Bellen won 50.3% of the votes. His opponent Norbert Hofer, candidate of the populist far-right Freedom Party (FPOe), was narrowly defeated after postal ballots were counted, with 49.7%. Impacts Despite Hofer's defeat, the election was a success for the FPOe and will cement its position in the political mainstream. The success of the FPOe is likely to serve as inspiration for like-minded parties in France and Germany. Unless the government initiates overdue reforms to end political and economic stagnation, the FPOe may continue to grow in popularity.

Growth failure leaves governing French left vulnerable

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Growth Failure ◽  
National Front ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Marine Le Pen ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Right ◽  
Regional Elections ◽  
The Eu

Significance The government's reforms have failed to deliver growth and lower employment as it had hoped. This leaves it poorly placed before December's regional elections and the 2017 presidential poll. Against a background of economic weakness, Europe's migrant crisis is boosting the National Front (FN) and its leader Marine Le Pen. Impacts Sarkozy may beat former Prime Minister Alain Juppe in the main centre-right party primary. Sarkozy may then beat President Francois Hollande in the first presidential round, and Marine Le Pen in the second. Under pressure from the right, the government is unlikely to accept further refugees beyond the proposed EU quota. France's continued economic debility will weaken its voice in the EU, and exacerbate strains with Germany.

Tensions will simmer in Ecuador despite subsidy U-turn

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Trade Unions ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Action ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
Indigenous Groups ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Imf

Significance The move, designed to help meet IMF loan conditions, triggered two weeks of protests by indigenous movements, trade unions, students and others, which brought the country to a halt and threatened to topple the government. Heavy-handed police and military action exacerbated the violence, which resulted in hundreds of arrests and at least eight deaths. Moreno’s U-turn has put an end to the unrest for now but deep divisions (and IMF requirements) remain. Impacts Correa and his supporters will seize on Moreno’s inability to maintain order and his decision to back down in the face of protests. Indigenous groups will be emboldened by Moreno’s U-turn and will continue resisting key elements of the government’s economic programme. Relations with the IMF have returned to centre stage and will shape the political landscape as the 2021 presidential elections approach.

French migration policy will become more restrictive

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Migration Policy ◽  
European Countries ◽  
National Context ◽  
Far Right ◽  
National Front ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Right ◽  
Restrictive Policy

Significance Like all European countries, France is facing increasing pressure from large-scale migration. While the government has so far been reluctant to welcome refugees, most candidates from the right and far-right call for an even more restrictive policy and are engaged in a fierce rivalry to offer ever-harder stances on immigration. Impacts The Calais 'jungle' is likely to be dismantled at least temporarily so the government can give the appearance of determination. A hard line will prevail regardless of the result of the next election, for fear of further increasing support for the National Front. In the light of the tense national context, some cities such as Paris will seek to develop local pro-migrant policies.

Rising African populism will threaten status quo

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Government Spending ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
The Political ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
National Debt ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Advice ◽  
New Generation

Subject Rise of left-wing populists in East and Southern Africa. Significance The failure of the political mainstream to address the needs of the poor has created space for the emergence of a new generation of populist movements and leaders. In Tanzania and Zambia, this has led to the election of populist presidents. In South Africa, it has resulted in the emergence of a populist opposition party and the rise of a series of interconnected social movements animated by anti-elitist sentiment. What distinguishes the new populist wave is that it seeks to overthrow existing inequalities, consciously targeting established 'nationalist' or 'liberation' forces that are seen to have grown complacent and corrupt. Impacts The rise of populist opposition parties will encourage governments to adopt more populist economic policies. Higher government spending and lower regard for orthodox economic advice could increase budget deficits and lead to rising national debt. Several states will become more vocal criticisms of global inequalities, and perceived Western hypocrisy, in forums such as the WTO and UN.

scholarly journals Authoritarian populism in the US: context and continuity in a post-truth era

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 27-44
Author(s):  
Richard C. Box
Keyword(s):  
The Political ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Dominant Ideology ◽  
The Public ◽  
Limited Government ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
Authoritarian Populism ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Right ◽  
Elite Influence

Abstract An enduring theme in US politics is tension between people on the right who favour limited government that serves individual and elite interests and people on the left who prefer active government with emphasis on a broader public interest. Recently, the political landscape has shifted from the dominant ideology of neoliberalism toward a far-right authoritarian populism with parallels to mid-20th century fascism. This shift appears in regressive societal characteristics - such as xenophobia, racism, homophobia, and misogyny - that were thought to have diminished in an increasingly progressive 21 st century. An argument can be made that authoritarian populism is a continuation of longstanding patterns of elite influence, in which regressive elements serve as techniques to distract the public from the governing economic agenda. The essay examines this phenomenon and explores potential future effects on US society.

scholarly journals Evolution of Party Systems: New Point of Bifurcation?

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 185-198
Author(s):  
E. G. SOLOVYEV
Keyword(s):  
Economic Recession ◽  
Party Systems ◽  
Situational Factors ◽  
The Political ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Current Crisis ◽  
Political Challenge ◽  
The Government ◽  
Migration Crisis ◽  
The Right

In face of the relative success of the right and left populists, among  representatives of the intellectual elite on the West arose a  conviction – in order to restore the liberal order and prevent the final victory of populists, traditional parties will have to make not  only rebranding. They must develop policies through which  globalization can serve the middle and working class. In fact, the  problem is even wider than the opposition to the right and left populists. The transformation of party systems takes place in the  context of the effects of globalization, generating new lines of  social tensions and divisions in society (including “globalized elite” –  “anti-globalistminded masses” opposition); under framework of  democracy deficit, when a significant part of the electorate of  developed Western countries clearly realizes that they “can change  the government, but not the policy” and from time to time under the influence of situational factors involve in the “protest voting”, in  support of alternative to political establishment political forces; in the context of fragmentation of the political field due to the crisis  of “Grand ideological narratives” and the appearance of so called  “molecular ideologies” and “one question” parties. Entering the  political arena in a number of countries of the far right and far left  forces is rather situational, but it becomes a consequence of the  current crisis trends – the migration crisis, terrorism, economic  recession. The rise of populist parties of all kinds (right, left, right- left) has its limits. But the process of party systems adaptation to a  new type of conflict between the globalized postmodern elites and  the majority of “nationalized” citizens of national states is only  developing now (both in developed and developing countries). The  question is in which degree the party and political systems of  different countries are ready to it and how the modern political elites  are flexible and adaptive to a new political challenge.

US companies and political influence: how business can read the government landscape better

2020 ◽  
Vol 42 (1) ◽  
pp. 69-75
Author(s):  
Michael Greiner ◽  
Jaegul Lee
Keyword(s):  
Political Action ◽  
Empirical Support ◽  
Political Influence ◽  
The Political ◽  
Market Theory ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Financial Reports ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
The Government

Purpose This paper aims to help executives understand how to interact with government in today’s chaotic political environment. Design/methodology/approach This paper is based upon voluminous research analyzing a unique data set downloaded from a number of sources, including the financial reports of public companies and the contribution reports filed by political action committees and candidates for Congress. Findings This study found that political decision-making is constrained by a set of institutions the authors call the political landscape. This framework includes three factors that businesses looking to influence government and the elected officials themselves must consider: the politicians’ ideology, the political trends of their constituency and their existing relationships. While these factors constrain the ability of politicians and business advocates to successfully pursue certain policy positions, businesses may be able to influence these factors through effective political activism, and in so doing, they may be able to push key government decision-makers to alter their positions. Practical implications This research will help executives understand how government operates in this new era of uncertainty. Being able to read the political landscape will enable business leaders to anticipate and perhaps even mitigate governmental threats to their business. Originality/value This research updates the market theory of politics which has received limited empirical support. It is especially valuable in the wake of Supreme Court’s decisions that have increased the potential for business to impact politics.

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