Turkey's Kurdish guerrilla war will not end soon

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Islamic State ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Guerrilla War ◽  
Turkish State ◽  
State Group ◽  
The Military

Significance This is one of the few successes the military have had on the ground since President Recep Tayyip Erdogan ended the ceasefire with the PKK on July 24. Impacts The Turkish state will sustain heavy daily casualties inviting ever-stronger retaliation, although what shape this may take is not clear. Despite attacks on it from government politicians, the HDP will retain enough support to get into the next parliament. The struggle with Islamic State group will take second place in government eyes to fighting the PKK. There will be strains between the PKK and HDP, but probably no overt split between them ın the short term.

Guerrillas could prompt Turkish state of emergency

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Local Population ◽  
Full Scale ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
State Of Emergency ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
The Government ◽  
Turkish State ◽  
Kurdistan Workers Party ◽  
State Group

Significance They were responding to increasingly serious attacks on Turkish soldiers and police by Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) guerrillas in eastern Turkey. With President Recep Tayyip Erdogan vowing fierce retribution, and conflicts between the authorities and the local population growing in the Kurdish-dominated south-east, the country is braced for full-scale war, just as it prepares for fresh parliamentary elections on November 1. Impacts Business and the economy face a sharp downturn with the lira growing steadily weaker. The conflict with the Kurds will intensify and Kurdish demands for full-scale independence will increase. The government will not seek a compromise with the Kurds and will be prepared to allocate any resources needed for a military solution. A more authoritarian style of government is likely to emerge after November. Turkey looks increasingly vulnerable to serious Islamic State group (ISG) attacks in urban centres, though probably not before the election.

Mansour killing may serve to strengthen Afghan Taliban

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Islamic State ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Group ◽  
Peace And Reconciliation

Significance Pentagon spokesperson Peter Cook in a statement labelled Mullah Mansour a "key obstacle to peace and reconciliation in Afghanistan", referring to his repeated refusals to negotiate with Kabul. Yet while his elimination represents a major setback for the Taliban, the prospects for peace talks have not necessarily brightened. Impacts The Taliban's position on Islamic State group depends on how soon a new leader is chosen and recent unification gains are consolidated. International involvement in Afghanistan is unlikely to change in the short term as a result of Mullah Mansour's killing. Reprisal attacks by the Taliban against foreign forces could rise.

Myanmar peace effort could falter after March

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Groups ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Peace Negotiations ◽  
Aung San Suu Kyi ◽  
National League ◽  
The Government ◽  
State Group ◽  
The Military

Subject Prospects for the peace process with ethnic groups under the incoming National League for Democracy government. Significance Peace negotiations between the government, ethnic armed groups (EAGs) and the military (Tatmadaw) were discussed when National League for Democracy (NLD) leader Aung San Suu Kyi met Tatmadaw chief Min Aung Hlaing on January 25. This followed the Union Peace Conference (UPC) round held oon January 12-16, which also involved outgoing President Thein Sein, and which marked Suu Kyi's official debut in the peace process. Impacts Progressing peace in Rakhine State could help Myanmar reduce Islamic State group threats. To protect its interests, the military could stymie peace talks by restarting conflict in ethnic areas. The NLD may soften its stance on federalism to keep the military aboard, but likely thus alienating ethnic groups.

Turkish detente will bolster Saudi regional policy

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Regional Policy ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Arab Uprisings ◽  
Bilateral Relations ◽  
The Muslim Brotherhood ◽  
Regional Position ◽  
State Group ◽  
Military Campaign ◽  
The Military

Subject Saudi-Turkish relations. Significance After ties soured in the wake of the 2011 Arab uprisings, the Saudi and Turkish leaderships are managing bilateral relations better in order to combat rising regional challenges. These include a potential agreement on Iran's nuclear programme, the expansion of the Islamic State group (ISG) and the stalemate in the Syrian rebel campaign to unseat President Bashar al-Assad. In particular, relations have improved at the leadership level, with the death of Saudi King Abdallah enabling a symbolic turning of a new page in the kingdom's foreign policy and a toning down in the kingdom's hostility towards the Muslim Brotherhood. Impacts Saudi support for the Sisi regime could revive tensions with Turkey, particularly if Egypt intensifies its anti-Islamist crackdown further. Despite common concerns over ISG, both Turkey and Riyadh will limit their involvement in the military campaign owing to domestic concerns. The kingdom's change in tone towards the Brotherhood could strengthen its regional position by improving ties with key Islamist groups. Improved diplomacy could boost already strong trade ties.

Civil conflict looms in Yemen as Huthis push south

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Conflict ◽  
Civil Aviation ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Local Actors ◽  
Sectarian Conflict ◽  
Conflict Risk ◽  
State Group ◽  
Military Campaign ◽  
The Military

Subject Yemen conflict risk. Significance The Huthi movement is preparing a military campaign to oust President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi from his seat in Aden. As part of this campaign it took control of Ta'izz on March 22. As the Huthis advance deeper into Sunni majority areas, the risk of sectarian conflict is rising. On March 20, the Islamic State group (ISG) claimed the bombings of Zaydi Shia mosques in Sana'a and Sa'ada which killed 143 people. If the claim is authentic, this would be the first known attack by the group on Yemeni soil. Impacts The Huthis' tactical alliance with Saleh will break down eventually, leading to conflict. The military is splitting, and could turn against Huthi control. Huthis may seek to close down Aden airport while increase in foreign arms supplies to local actors will raise risks for civil aviation. Hadi could defeat the Huthi campaign if he organises anti-Huthi forces effectively. A power struggle will weaken government efforts to fight al-Qaida, while sectarian conflict would benefit the ISG.

Turkey's economy and security are Erdogan's key risks

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Late Summer ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
New Man ◽  
National Life ◽  
The Government ◽  
Kurdistan Workers Party ◽  
State Group ◽  
The Military

Significance There are no declared candidates and the new man will be in effect the personal appointee of President Recep Tayyib Erdogan, whose dominance over the country seems greater than ever, despite his failure to subdue Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) terrorism or stem the growth of attacks by the Islamic State group (ISG) on Turkey's southern frontier. Most striking of all, the president is taking a hard line in Turkey's dealings with the EU. Impacts The late summer will see pressures grow on the exchange rate because of low earnings from tourism. The threat from ISG will increase. Despite its desire to do so, the government is unlikely to order a major incursion into Syria. The role of the military is rising once again in national life because of the Kurdish and ISG conflicts.

Jihadist violence in Sahel will persist in 2021

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
National Security ◽  
Military Leadership ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Joint Force ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Strong Commitment ◽  
G5 Sahel Joint Force ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Military

Significance The deployment of the UK troops comes at a time when jihadists attacks are intensifying across the Sahel amid an escalating internecine conflict between the al-Qaida-affiliated Group for Supporting Islam and Muslims (JNIM) and the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS). Impacts Mali’s coup is likely to distract the military leadership away from its core mandate to improve national security. The G5 Sahel Joint Force may continue to struggle to curb jihadist cross-border operations. The deployment of UK troops underscores the still strong commitment of Western governments to improving the security situation in the Sahel.

Rise of Shia militias will reshape Iraqi politics

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
National Guard ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Power Struggle ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Group

Subject The rise of Iraq's Shia militias. Significance Shia militias, known as Popular Mobilisation Units (PMUs), are the most capable offensive forces at the federal government's disposal in its fight against Islamic State group (ISG). Yet Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi's cabinet only exercises limited control over these forces, many of which receive backing from Iran. While Iraq's battle against ISG is progressing steadily, the emergence of these powerful Shia militias could represent a larger medium-term challenge to state stability. Impacts Shia militias will probably be less effective in Sunni-only areas. Iraq boasts insufficient offensive forces to attack Mosul in the first half of 2015. The National Guard initiative will take months to be ratified in parliament. Politics in the oil-rich south will be complicated by a power struggle between Shia politicians and militia leaders.

Libya beheadings strengthen anti-Islamist agenda

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Air Force ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Armed Group ◽  
State Group

Significance The strikes were in response to a video released by the Islamic State group (ISG) yesterday showing the beheading of 21 Egyptian Copts who had been kidnapped from Sirte on two separate occasions on December 31 and January 3. Brigadier Saqer al-Joroushi, who commands the air force for the armed group of former General Khalifa Haftar, said the strikes were carried out in coordination between them and Egypt. He added that further strikes were going to take place. Impacts The beheadings are sharpening divisions within the moderate Islamist Libya Dawn camp. This might trigger a confrontation between its more moderate elements and the more radical ones. The killings will reinforce popular Egyptian support for Sisi and his anti-Islamist agenda.

Jihadi groups will compete for support in the Maghreb

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
International Action ◽  
Security Environment ◽  
Militant Groups ◽  
State Group

Significance Instability in Libya has exacerbated an already fraught security environment in the Maghreb and the Sahel. Several militant groups co-exist in these parts, usually in competition with each other. The Islamic State group (ISG) has taken centre stage, but despite high profile attacks in Libya, it has failed to establish a foothold in other Maghreb countries. Impacts ISG encroachment in Libya will strengthen calls for international action to address Libya's crisis. Sporadic attacks are expected against security forces and government targets in Tunisia and Algeria. Government pressure and expanded counterterrorism operations could cause more widespread abuses of human rights. Fighters returning from jihad in Syria and Iraq could bolster the capabilities of local jihadist cells.

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