Turkey's economy and security are Erdogan's key risks
Significance There are no declared candidates and the new man will be in effect the personal appointee of President Recep Tayyib Erdogan, whose dominance over the country seems greater than ever, despite his failure to subdue Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) terrorism or stem the growth of attacks by the Islamic State group (ISG) on Turkey's southern frontier. Most striking of all, the president is taking a hard line in Turkey's dealings with the EU. Impacts The late summer will see pressures grow on the exchange rate because of low earnings from tourism. The threat from ISG will increase. Despite its desire to do so, the government is unlikely to order a major incursion into Syria. The role of the military is rising once again in national life because of the Kurdish and ISG conflicts.