Finances weaken Algiers' capacity to buy stability

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Shale Gas ◽  
Political Change ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Environmental Damage ◽  
Effective Power ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
The World

Significance Protests have been mostly concentrated at In Salah, where drilling for exploration of shale gas began on December 27, although solidarity protests have taken place elsewhere too. Algeria has the third-largest estimated shale gas reserves in the world, but protesters fear environmental damage, specifically of the country's water reserves, and that citizens will not enjoy the benefits of the resource's exploitation. Despite assurances by President Abdelaziz Bouteflika and Prime Minister Abdelmalek Sellal, protests have persisted. Impacts If oil prices stay low or fall further, the regime may be forced into political change more quickly than it wishes. Potential successors to Bouteflika include Prime Minister Abdel Malek Sellal, the Minister of the Interior Tayeb Belaiz, or Ahmed Ouyahia. If Bouteflika's brother, Sa'id, wields effective power for a further 2-3 years, his credibility as a candidate would be enhanced.

Kazakhstan-China ties will grow amid oil crisis

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Chinese Foreign Policy ◽  
Sharp Decline ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
Oil Crisis

Subject Kazakhstan-China ties. Significance Kazakhstan Prime Minister Karim Massimov visited Beijing on December 10 for the third annual meeting of the Kazakhstan-China Business Council. The previous gathering took place in December 2014 in Astana, and was attended by Chinese Premier Li Keqiang. Ties between the two countries are strengthening despite a sharp decline in bilateral trade due to low oil prices and Beijing's weaker demand for Kazakhstan's commodities. China remains one of Kazakhstan's strategic partners, together with Russia and the West, and is poised to expand its influence across Central Asia. Impacts Trade between Kazakhstan-China is unlikely to recover until oil prices stabilise at pre-2014 levels, which is unlikely before 2018. President Nursultan Nazarbayev's administration will maintain a balance between Russia and China. Kazakhstan will remain a marginal factor in Chinese foreign policy in both economic and diplomatic terms.

Prospects for India in the third quarter

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Second Year ◽  
Important State

Subject Prospects for India in the third quarter. Significance Prime Minister Narendra Modi's second year in government to May 2016 will be harder than the first. The GDP rebase and lower oil prices propelled growth to an estimated 7.5% year-on-year in the January-March quarter, but poor weather and a US interest rate hike loom over economic prospects. The incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) swept important state elections last year, but the 'Modi wave' is losing momentum. The prime minister has been active on foreign policy, but now faces pressure to deliver new investment and trade opportunities for India.

Solar power set for expansion in the Gulf

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Government Policy ◽  
Best Practice ◽  
Solar Power ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Gulf Cooperation Council ◽  
Natural Conditions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Power Set ◽  
Policy Frameworks ◽  
The World

Subject Solar power in the Gulf. Significance Favourable natural conditions and growing gas shortages make the Gulf Cooperation Council bloc one of the most attractive and lowest-cost solar markets in the world. Impacts Lower oil prices will reduce funding and incentives for solar projects, but recent reductions in costs make solar power economically viable. To win future bids, solar firms will require a combination of local knowledge and global best practice. The UAE and Saudi Arabia have strong prospects of evolving into a regional hub for solar business and installations. Due to low capacity and a small starting base solar power may displace only 1-3% of the power sector's fuel consumption by the early 2020s. Another barrier to growth will be the lack of coherent government policy frameworks, and ongoing electricity subsidies.

Confrontation with Iraq’s militias may come to a head

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
International Aid ◽  
Financial Assistance ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Double Hit ◽  
Will Force

Significance This followed five rocket attacks on the US-led coalition in the last two weeks, which killed two US and one UK citizen. It also came two days after Kurdish President Barham Salih named Adnan al-Zurfi, a US-linked Shia nationalist politician, as the new prime minister-designate. Impacts Washington may hold back its response to attacks in order to further Zurfi’s ratification. A massive double hit from low oil prices and COVID-19 will force Iraq to seek more international aid. A Zurfi government could improve Iraq’s chances of gaining Western and Gulf financial assistance.

Indian middle class set to drive domestic tourism boom

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Middle Class ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Domestic Tourism ◽  
Foreign Tourism ◽  
The Impact

Subject Tourism outlook. Significance The tourism and leisure sectors are major employers in the Indian economy, accounting for 12.4% of employment and contributing an estimated 7.0% of GDP in 2014. Foreign tourism is the third-largest foreign exchange earner (generating 18.4 billion dollars in 2013) and among the top ten sectors for attracting foreign direct investment (FDI). Accordingly, the 2015-16 budget identified tourism as a key part of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's as yet unclear 'Make in India' campaign, expanded its budget and offered new measures to support it. Impacts The decline of the Russian economy will adversely affect Indian tourism, especially in key destination states such as Goa. Inadequate policy attention to women's safety will deter both domestic and foreign travellers. Domestic tourism will be fostered by the weak rupee and the impact of the financial crisis on Western tourists.

Oil prices complicate Latin America outlook

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Price Impact ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
The World ◽  
Alternative Energies

Subject 'Winners' and 'losers' from the recent collapse in oil prices. Significance The recent precipitate fall in crude oil prices, with the Brent crude price falling below 50 dollars/barrel in January (less than half its September 2014 level), is clearly having a major impact around the world. In Latin America, which includes both oil importing and exporting countries, there will be winners and losers from this development, although in some cases the oil price impact is likely to prove more nuanced. Impacts Plunging oil prices are compounding doubts surrounding the regional hydrocarbons sector. The effect on investment decisions will have a longer-term impact on the region. The development of alternative energies in Latin America will be hit by the lower prices.

Prospects for East Asia in the third quarter of 2015

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South China Sea ◽  
East Asia ◽  
South China ◽  
Political System ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The South China Sea ◽  
Xi Jinping ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
China’S Economy

Subject Prospects for East Asia in the third quarter of 2015. Significance China's economy is still slowing, and President Xi Jinping is further tightening his hold over an increasingly illiberal political system, but few grave consequences are visible yet. In Japan, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's leadership remains unchallenged. Tokyo's relations with Beijing and Seoul have warmed slightly, but tensions in the South China Sea have risen.

Prospects for the Middle East in the third quarter

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
International Negotiations ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
New Era ◽  
The Third ◽  
State Group

Subject Prospects for the Middle East in the third quarter. Significance International negotiations over Iran's nuclear programme are set to culminate in an agreement early in the quarter, reshaping the regional geopolitical map. Meanwhile the new leadership in Saudi Arabia will be tested on multiple fronts, including Yemen, the expanding influence of Islamic State group (ISG), and adjusting its economic policies to a new era of lower oil prices. Libya is looking for agreement on a national unity government.

Kazakhstan poll will be about stability not succession

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
At Risk ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Public Support ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
Social Stability ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Local Assembly

Significance The vote comes amid an unprecedented economic downturn caused by a combination of factors: low oil prices, recession in Russia and slowdown in China. President Nursultan Nazarbayev called early elections in January in a bid to maintain social stability until oil prices stabilise or increase. His personal credibility is less at risk than that of government members directly in charge of the economy, and one way of deflecting criticism would be to get the new parliament to dismiss Prime Minister Karim Massimov. Impacts The Majilis will play a marginal role in decision-making, and despite its apparent dominance, Nur Otan will have little say. The few remaining opposition groups will be subjected to harassment and prosecution to prevent them mobilising public support. Nur Otan will win local assembly elections taking place simultaneously.

Argentina's YPF faces competitiveness challenges

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Government Subsidy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Subsidy Scheme ◽  
The World ◽  
Unconventional Hydrocarbons

Significance The operation will take place under a government subsidy scheme that pays 7.50 dollars per barrel to exporters as long as the world oil price remains below 47.50 dollars. YPF is in the process of redefining its investment strategy which, since its renationalisation in 2012, has focused on the development of unconventional hydrocarbons resources. Impacts Despite being Latin America's largest unconventional hydrocarbons producer, YPF will struggle to improve its competitiveness. The recent devaluation will provide only limited benefits in this respect. High domestic oil prices and the sharp tariff increase are unpopular and may prove unsustainable.

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