Russia's Armenia reinforcement may destabilise region

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Balance Of Power ◽  
Military Operations ◽  
The South ◽  
South Caucasus ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Operational Capabilities ◽  
Russian Military

Significance As Russia expands military operations in Syria and escalates the crisis with Turkey, it has also bolstered its forces at its base in Armenia, the sole Russian military facility in the South Caucasus. The expanded Russian force in Armenia not only enhances its operational capabilities, but also endangers an already delicate regional balance of power in the region. It can be seen as a response both to the shooting down of a Russian military warplane by Turkey in November, and to two separate incursions into Armenian airspace by Turkish army helicopters in early October. Impacts Neighbouring Turkey will see the expansion of Russian forces in Armenia as a provocative move, aimed against both Turkey and NATO. Azerbaijan may expand its own operations, amid a wider escalation of hostilities over Nagorno-Karabakh. By being drawn into supporting Russia's Syrian operations, Armenia's relations with the West become more complicated.

US and Russian policies and strategies in the Middle East: Iraq and Syria as a model

2019 ◽  
pp. 220
Author(s):  
Esraa Aladdin Noori ◽  
Nasser Zain AlAbidine Ahmed
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
Western World ◽  
International Conflicts ◽  
The South ◽  
The West ◽  
The North ◽  
East Region ◽  
Middle East Region

The Russian-American relations have undergone many stages of conflict and competition over cooperation that have left their mark on the international balance of power in the Middle East. The Iraqi and Syrian crises are a detailed development in the Middle East region. The Middle East region has allowed some regional and international conflicts to intensify, with the expansion of the geopolitical circle, which, if applied strategically to the Middle East region, covers the area between Afghanistan and East Asia, From the north to the Maghreb to the west and to the Sudan and the Greater Sahara to the south, its strategic importance will seem clear. It is the main lifeline of the Western world.

Fieldnotes from a war zone: South Ossetia, September 2008

2014 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Larisa Sotieva
Keyword(s):  
General Situation ◽  
The South ◽  
South Caucasus ◽  
South Ossetia ◽  
Track Record ◽  
War Zone ◽  
The People ◽  
Unusual Position ◽  
Research Findings ◽  
Russian Military

Editors’ note: Immediately following the August 2008 war in and around South Ossetia, two London-based peacebuilding organisations active in the South Caucasus, Conciliation Resources and International Alert, commissioned Larisa Sotieva to conduct research into the situation on the ground in the aftermath of the war. Sotieva, who grew up in South Ossetia and has a long track record in humanitarian and peacebuilding work in the South Caucasus, was in an unusual position to be able to conduct research within the area. She did not, however, have access to territory controlled by the Georgian side during a fortnight of fieldwork and was therefore only able to cover those areas under the control of the Russian military at that time. This paper, which is based on that research, is not an academic article, but an eye-witness account documenting the general situation and fate of the people whom the researcher was able to contact, as well as particular examples offering insights into the situation in South Ossetian society at the time of writing (September-October 2008). Research findings were circulated to a limited policy-oriented audience in March 2009 and have now been edited into this paper for publication. The editors thank International Alert and Conciliation Resources for permission to publish this material.

Russia and oil have mixed impact in Caucasus

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Performance ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
External Factors ◽  
The South ◽  
South Caucasus ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

Subject Economic turmoil in the South Caucasus. Significance Economic performance has been affected by two major external factors: turmoil in Russia, which remains a significant economic partner, and declining oil prices. While lower imported fuel bills are positive for Armenia and Georgia, there are second-round negative implications, through the impact on economic activity in Russia. Impacts Lower oil prices will lead to some cuts on infrastructure spending in Azerbaijan but these will be limited. Armenia will suffer the most from the Russian turmoil, but the positive impact of domestic factors will prevail in 2015. Georgia's more diversified economic links make it more resilient to Russian shocks.

Turks will treat carefully Russian build-up in Armenia

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The South ◽  
South Caucasus ◽  
Air Power ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
Military Threat ◽  
Combat Aircraft ◽  
The Military

Subject Russia's deployment of drones at its base in Armenia. Significance After a significant upgrade and expansion of Russian air power in Armenia over the past two months, including the deployment of a combat helicopter squadron and additional fixed-wing combat aircraft, a new delivery of drones has further bolstered Russian capabilities in Gyumri, Russia's sole base in the South Caucasus. Impacts Advanced Russian UAVs will significantly expand surveillance capacity, with nearby Turkey the obvious target. The move will reassure Armenia of Russia's commitment to its security. If Armenia now exaggerates the military threat from Turkey, it could complicate the outlook for reopening their closed border.

LNA losses may lead to violence elsewhere in Libya

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Balance Of Power ◽  
Abu Dhabi ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The City

Significance This is the latest offensive after a series of wins by GNA-aligned groups in western Libya, repelling Haftar’s offensive to take control of the capital, Tripoli and the whole country. Turkey’s official intervention in the conflict since December 2019 in support of the GNA has now fundamentally shifted the balance of power. Impacts Haftar's losses could endanger his position with his external allies in Abu Dhabi and Cairo. The threat of mass reprisals by GNA-aligned forces will make Tarhuna groups fight fiercely -- even if the LNA withdraws from the city. If the GNA eliminates the LNA’s threat in the west, it may look to retake control of the oil crescent.

Russian defence policy in the Caucasus

2013 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Stephen Blank
Keyword(s):  
Military Deployments ◽  
The South ◽  
South Caucasus ◽  
The West ◽  
The Caucasus ◽  
Military Buildup ◽  
Defence Policy

Since the Russo-Georgian war of 2008 Moscow has embarked upon a steady and relentless military buildup across the Caucasus. This buildup actually accelerated after 2010, allegedly on account of Russian expectations that the West would attack Iran and of Iranian retaliation against US-Israeli interests and allies in the Caucasus. Such unrealistic pretexts are more likely to be justifications for Moscow’s determination to assert through military means a continuing neo-imperial project in the Caucasus. Russian policies and military deployments make clear that Russia still cannot accept the independence and sovereignty of the South Caucasus states and aims at having a completely free hand to use force in the region as it sees fit. This can only detract from the region’s security. These developments are the focus of this article.

South Caucasus rail revival will bring uneven benefits

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
The South ◽  
South Caucasus ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Ties

Significance The two-month conflict between Azerbaijani and Armenian forces has produced a breakthrough in an unexpected area: rail routes providing the South Caucasus with new connectivity with their neighbours. Impacts Funding substantial infrastructure work will challenge state finances during post-COVID-19 recovery. If the prospective economic benefits look one-sided, Armenia's prime minister will come under further domestic pressure. For Abkhazia's leadership, discussing a renewed rail connection offers a way of rebuilding economic ties with Tbilisi.

scholarly journals INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS AFTER THE WAR IN THE MOUNTAINOUS KARABAKH

2021 ◽  
pp. 150-155
Author(s):  
Ekaterina ARKHIPOVA
Keyword(s):  
Functional Analysis ◽  
International Relations ◽  
Near East ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
International Relations Theory ◽  
Regional Security ◽  
The South ◽  
South Caucasus

The war of 2020 in the Mountainous Karabakh has reshaped the balance of powers in the area and enforced the tensions between the area powers (Russia and Turkey). The article reveals the contemporary and new factors determining the area international relations. Theory of regional security complexes makes the ground of the article. Structural and functional analysis gives the opportunity to explain the reasons of states activity in the IR, states’ expectations and week points. The author undermines the influence of the 2020 war upon the area balance of power, helping Turkey to improve its influence instead of its’ loses in the Near East area. The author gives the prognosis about the improvement of tensions between the South Caucasus States.

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