Turks will treat carefully Russian build-up in Armenia

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The South ◽  
South Caucasus ◽  
Air Power ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
Military Threat ◽  
Combat Aircraft ◽  
The Military

Subject Russia's deployment of drones at its base in Armenia. Significance After a significant upgrade and expansion of Russian air power in Armenia over the past two months, including the deployment of a combat helicopter squadron and additional fixed-wing combat aircraft, a new delivery of drones has further bolstered Russian capabilities in Gyumri, Russia's sole base in the South Caucasus. Impacts Advanced Russian UAVs will significantly expand surveillance capacity, with nearby Turkey the obvious target. The move will reassure Armenia of Russia's commitment to its security. If Armenia now exaggerates the military threat from Turkey, it could complicate the outlook for reopening their closed border.

scholarly journals Political-military relations in the South Caucasus in the context of the Iran-Russia-Turkey Triangle

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
Vladimir Alekseevich Avatkov ◽  
Aleksandr Vladimirovich Kasianenko
Keyword(s):  
Regional Security ◽  
Modern State ◽  
Research Subject ◽  
Technical Cooperation ◽  
Conflicts Of Interests ◽  
The South ◽  
South Caucasus ◽  
National Interests ◽  
Military Relations ◽  
The Military

The research subject is the peculiarities of modern political-military relations in the South Caucasus in the context of the Iran-Russia-Turkey Triangle. The author considers political-military relations in the region through the prism of national interests of regional actors, such as Russia, Turkey, and Iran; analyzes military and technical cooperation in the South Caucasus based on the example of Armenia and Azerbaijan; studies military expenditure of the countries of the region and military budgets of Armenia and Azerbaijan, which are one of the hotbeds of tension and conflicts of interests of Russia, Turkey and Iran. The scientific novelty of the research consists in the systematization of ideas about the modern state of political-military relations in the South Caucasus in terms of the regional actors’ influence on the regional security system. Based on the documents, facts and research works, the author formulates a conclusion about the condition and the prospects of development of modern political-military relations in the South Caucasus in the context of the Iran-Russia-Turkey Triangle. The success of Turkey in terms of strengthening its positions in the South Caucasus against the background of rising competition in the region is undoubtable. Turkey has managed not only to position itself as a strong regional actor, which is able to indirectly influence regional disputes settlement, but also to promote the military triumph of Azerbaijan, its key ally in the region. It will result in further extension of export of Turkish weapons to Azerbaijan, and deeper cooperation between these two countries in other spheres. It concerns Russia and Iran, which are interested in maintaining the balance of powers in the region.  

Robustness of the Carhart four-factor and the Fama-French three-factor models on the South African stock market

2015 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 413-430 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas Addai Boamah
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
South African ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
The South ◽  
Gross Domestic Product Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
Three Factor ◽  
Future Growth ◽  
French Model

Purpose – The purpose of this study is to explore the applicability of the Fama–French and Carhart models on the South African stock market (SASM). It examines the ability of the models to capture size, book-to-market (BM) and momentum effects on the SASM. The paper, additionally, explores the ability of the Fama–French–Carhart factors to predict the future growth of the South African economy. Design/methodology/approach – The paper relies on data of 848 firms from January 1996 to April 2012 to examine the size, BM and momentum effects on the SASM. The paper constructs the test assets from a 3 × 3 sort on size and BM and a 3 × 3 sort on size and momentum. The paper estimates momentum as the past six-months’ cumulative return. The momentum portfolios are monthly rebalanced. Additionally, the size and BM portfolios are formed annually at the end of each June. Findings – Evidence is provided that size, BM and momentum effects exist on the SASM; also, the small- and high-BM firm portfolios, respectively, appear riskier than the big- and low-BM firm portfolios. The paper provides evidence of past winners outperforming past losers aside from the small-firm group. Additionally, the models only partially capture the size and value effects on the SASM. The Carhart model partly captures the momentum effects, but the Fama–French model is unable to describe the returns to the momentum-sorted portfolios. The evidence shows that the models’ factors predict future gross domestic product growth. Originality/value – The models do not fully describe returns on the SASM; any application of the models on the SASM should be done with caution. The Carhart model better describes returns than the Fama–French model on the SASM. The Fama–French–Carhart factors may relate to the underlying economic risk of the South African economy.

Russia's Armenia reinforcement may destabilise region

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Balance Of Power ◽  
Military Operations ◽  
The South ◽  
South Caucasus ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Operational Capabilities ◽  
Russian Military

Significance As Russia expands military operations in Syria and escalates the crisis with Turkey, it has also bolstered its forces at its base in Armenia, the sole Russian military facility in the South Caucasus. The expanded Russian force in Armenia not only enhances its operational capabilities, but also endangers an already delicate regional balance of power in the region. It can be seen as a response both to the shooting down of a Russian military warplane by Turkey in November, and to two separate incursions into Armenian airspace by Turkish army helicopters in early October. Impacts Neighbouring Turkey will see the expansion of Russian forces in Armenia as a provocative move, aimed against both Turkey and NATO. Azerbaijan may expand its own operations, amid a wider escalation of hostilities over Nagorno-Karabakh. By being drawn into supporting Russia's Syrian operations, Armenia's relations with the West become more complicated.

scholarly journals KHWAREZMIAN CONQUEST OF THE SOUTH CAUCASUS AND THE BATTLE OF GARNI IN 1225

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 5-17
Author(s):  
D M Timokhin
Keyword(s):  
Political Activity ◽  
Historical Event ◽  
The South ◽  
South Caucasus ◽  
Historical Sources ◽  
Military Conflict ◽  
Social Communities ◽  
Political Situation ◽  
The Military

The article deals with one of the most striking moments of the Khwarezmian expansion into the South Caucasus, namely the battle of Garni in 1225. It was this military clash that largely predetermined the course of the further military and political activity of the Khorezmshah Jalal ad-Din Mankburni: till his death in 1231, his attention was focused on this region, which had rightfully become the heart of his power. For its part, it was the Khwarezmian expansion that undermined the military and political might of the Georgian Empire, so that it could no longer properly withstand the Mongolian threat in the 1230s. The author of the article considers the battle and focuses on the causes and preconditions of this military conflict and its consequences. The article also presents a brief analysis of the military and political situation in the South Caucasus on the threshold of Khwarezmian threat. The events are reconstructed basing on the available sources in the Arabic-Persian, Georgian and Armenian languages. The author of the article highlights the key matters, which the authors of the three sources draw attention to, and emphasizes the most important authors’ assessments and conclusions cited in the historical sources. Thus, the author of the article considers the battle of Garni in 1225 both as a historical event and as a certain narrative created by medieval historians belonging to different religious, ethnic and social communities. The analysis of the mentioned narrative and the laws of its formation is an important component of this study.

Deadly Thai insurgency shows no signs of ending

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Peace Process ◽  
The South ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Limited Impact ◽  
The Military

Subject Outlook for the southern insurgency. Significance Thai security forces went on alert in early March ahead of the 55th anniversary of the founding of the National Revolutionary Front (BRN), one of the primary militias in southern Thailand's insurgency. During the week of the anniversary, there were four shootings and a bombing. These attacks followed the junta's claim that overall violence has declined in the region. The military has raised the prospect of a new peace process, although progress in organising the next round has been slow. Impacts The insurgency will have a limited impact on the economy; its impact will largely be confined to some SEZ plans. Improvements in Thailand's ties with Malaysia will be key to beginning a meaningful peace process. Violence in the south is unlikely to impede the drafting of a new constitution and the conduct of fresh parliamentary polls.

Russia and oil have mixed impact in Caucasus

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Performance ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
External Factors ◽  
The South ◽  
South Caucasus ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

Subject Economic turmoil in the South Caucasus. Significance Economic performance has been affected by two major external factors: turmoil in Russia, which remains a significant economic partner, and declining oil prices. While lower imported fuel bills are positive for Armenia and Georgia, there are second-round negative implications, through the impact on economic activity in Russia. Impacts Lower oil prices will lead to some cuts on infrastructure spending in Azerbaijan but these will be limited. Armenia will suffer the most from the Russian turmoil, but the positive impact of domestic factors will prevail in 2015. Georgia's more diversified economic links make it more resilient to Russian shocks.

Ethiopia's government will enforce order

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
External Pressure ◽  
Amhara Region ◽  
Front Line ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
Initial Wave ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military ◽  
The Town ◽  
Important Shift

Subject Implications of recent protests. Significance The past two weeks have seen a significant increase in protests against the government. Residents in towns across the Oromiya region have demonstrated sporadically since late 2015 after an initial wave of dissent in early 2014. Protests in the Amhara region, including in the town of Gondar, appear to signal an important shift in dynamics. The protests are the most significant challenge the ruling Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) has confronted since the death of former Prime Minister Meles Zenawi in 2012. Impacts External pressure is unlikely to influence the behaviour of the government, despite its reliance on aid. Attacks on ethnic Tigrayans and the ethnic characterisation of the protests as 'Oromo' or 'Amhara' will deepen polarisation in society. The military may take a more front-line role in politics if its leaders perceive politicians as being unable to maintain order.

Algerian leadership will head off military threat

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Interest Groups ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
Military Threat ◽  
The Media ◽  
Powerful Interest ◽  
The Way

Subject President Abdelaziz Bouteflika's grip on power in Algeria. Significance In the past three months, President Abdelaziz Bouteflika has dismissed ten generals in the armed forces and police. The scale of the turnover is unusual, as is the way in which the changes have been effected. The media have advanced various explanations: a cocaine-smuggling scandal, corruption charges or a routine rotation of officers. Questions have also arisen about what impact the dismissal of powerful security figures might have on the presidency itself, as Bouteflika’s supporters prepare the ground for him to secure a fifth term in an election scheduled for April 2019. Impacts A fifth term for Bouteflika will not lay to rest rivalries among powerful interest groups over the eventual succession. Activists and civil society members will organise more protests to express discontent with the presidency. If the cocaine smuggling claim is true, it may point to mafia-style networks deep within the security establishment.

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