Malaysia's Najib will be stronger in 2016

Subject Political outlook for Malaysia's prime minister. Significance This year's United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) general assembly, which concluded on December 12, emphasised unity in the face of some party fragmentation. Party leader and Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak used the meeting again to reject criticisms surrounding his government over the 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) state investment fund and political contributions. Despite infighting, the party assembly and some recent parliamentary victories imply Najib is consolidating his political position. Impacts Some UMNO critics of Najib may defect, but with a weak opposition coalition, defectors' influence would be limited. New security council legislation will alienate parts of Malaysian civil society. The government will face international pressure not to 'abuse' this legislation.

Subject Malaysia's political outlook following the Bersih 4 protests. Significance Former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad is to be officially questioned about his presence at the 'Bersih 4' mass protests organised by the Coalition for Clean and Fair Elections (Bersih) on August 29 and 30, local press reports said today. By allowing the rallies to proceed peacefully, Prime Minister Najib Razak had sought to extend the political respite brought by his July 28 cabinet reshuffle. His position nationally and within the governing United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) is under threat amid political difficulties relating to the 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) national investment fund. Impacts The Malaysian parliamentary opposition's weakness means civil society will provide most opposition to the government for now. The Bersih movement's mostly urban support limits its challenge to the government, which enjoys strong rural support. Public doubts about the effectiveness of Malaysian anti-corruption frameworks will stunt their development.


Subject Borisov’s third administration. Significance The government approved by parliament on May 4 is Prime Minister Boyko Borisov’s third since 2009. It is the first time his Citizens for Bulgaria’s European Development (GERB) party has joined in formal coalition with United Patriots (OB), a bloc comprising three nationalist parties. Two OB leaders, Krasimir Karakachanov and Valery Simeonov, are deputy prime ministers, but only the former combines this position with a portfolio (defence). OB’s third and most controversial leader -- Ataka party leader Volen Siderov, noted previously for rabid anti-NATO and pro-Putin statements -- has no formal government role. Impacts GERB has reaffirmed its domination of Bulgarian politics with minimal concessions to its formal coalition partners. The spectre of increased Russian influence over Bulgarian politics that worried some EU partners has seemingly dissipated. A firmer line against migration is likely as a sop to OB, but meaningful reform of the judiciary will again be strenuously avoided. Sofia’s worries about Turkey and the Western Balkans and its forthcoming EU presidency may make it more amenable to EU influence and advice.


Subject Departement elections. Significance President Francois Hollande's administration seems poised to be dealt its fourth electoral defeat in less than three years at the department ('departement') elections, the first round of which takes place on March 22. Following the January terror attacks on satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo and a kosher grocery store, the face of 'post-Charlie France' is much less republican than what many commentators expected or even hoped: Marine Le Pen's National Front (FN) is more than ever empowered and might even reach the historical landmark of 30%. Despite this, Hollande will neither replace Prime Minister Manuel Valls nor change economic policy. Rather, he will try to re-build a presidential majority for 2017 by reshuffling the government and letting in Greens and progressive members of his own majority. Impacts The FN will be empowered by a likely historical result, confirming its status of first party nationally and locally. The UMP will win big in the second round on March 29, consolidating Sarkozy's return to the forefront of French politics. Hollande will not change his prime minister but open up his government to prepare for 2017.


Subject The political crises facing the government. Significance Prime Minister Najib Razak faces his worst array of political crises to date. These include alleged mismanagement of one of Malaysia's sovereign wealth funds, controversial tightening of security legislation and the potentially inflationary implementation of a goods and services tax. Personal criticism by former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad compounds these difficulties, although the leadership of Najib's United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) has rallied around him. Impacts If Najib's political position worsens, pressure will grow within UMNO to replace him. By-elections in May will be bellwethers for public perceptions of the opposition and governing coalition's popularity. The 'hudud' controversy could split the opposition coalition during parliament's next session.


Significance As he departed, Bernardi argued that the governing Liberals "bled" votes to the anti-immigration One Nation party owing to neglect of the party's conservative base by centrists leading the government. With the election of four One Nation senators in last year's election and strong polling ahead of key state elections, the precarious centre-right government of Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull may face a renewed electoral threat from the far right. Impacts Australian prime ministers of all stripes will struggle to implement climate-friendly energy policy in the face of conservative pressure. The growth of non-major parties could empower localist opposition to foreign ownership of Australian assets, such as ports and farmland. US President Donald Trump's back-tracking on Australia's refugee resettlement deal could undercut Turnbull's position domestically.


Subject Political tensions. Significance A fresh round of sanctions imposed on key political figures in June looks set further to harden the government’s stance towards its critics. Having ridden out the major protests of 2018, the administration of President Daniel Ortega remains defiant in the face of increased international pressure. Ongoing efforts to secure prisoner releases and hold dialogue between the government and protest groups are increasingly viewed merely as a delaying tactic, used by the Ortega government to deflect criticism. Impacts More sanctions will put pressure on financial institutions to comply, with some non-Nicaraguan banks likely to consider ending operations. With Ortega now set to remain in power until at least the 2021 elections, attention will shift to campaigning. The threat of the amnesty law may lead some former protesters to flee to Costa Rica for fear of reprisals.


Subject The political and economic consequences of the 1Malaysia Development Berhad fund controversy. Significance Police raided 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB)'s offices yesterday under a wider investigation into allegations of mismanagement of the state-owned investment fund. Meanwhile, today the auditor general submitted a provisional report on the fund to the Public Accounts Committee.The 1MDB case is dominating Malaysian political and economic life, and undermining Prime Minister Najib Razak's political position. Further allegations against 1MDB, or popular perceptions that the government is insufficiently investigating criticisms of the fund, could trigger mass protests. Impacts Snap elections are unlikely. The 1MDB controversy will continue to erode investors' confidence in Malaysia. A future 1MDB default is possible without further credit support, posing risks for financial institutions linked to the fund.


Significance As many as a dozen lockdown parties are now alleged to have been held at Downing Street, significantly damaging Johnson’s support among the public and his Conservative Party. His position as party leader and prime minister is gravely threatened. Impacts Johnson’s domestic troubles, coupled with rising economic concerns, increase the chance of an agreement with the EU over Northern Ireland. Disillusionment with Johnson, opposition to net-zero and culture wars open the door for Nigel Farage’s Reform Party to revive its appeal. Rising inflation threatens to undermine consumer confidence and slow the economic recovery over the coming year.


Race & Class ◽  
2002 ◽  
Vol 44 (2) ◽  
pp. 23-39 ◽  
Author(s):  
Suvendrini Perera

In the week before the attacks in the US 'changed the worldforever', a Norwegian container ship, the MV Tampa, rescued almost four hundred asylum seekers from asinking boat off the Indonesian archipelago. The captain sailed towards Australia, but was refused permission to land by a government declaring that this nation would 'not be held hostage by our own decency'. In the face of UN and international disapproval, the Tampa was boarded by armed troops and forcibly moved out of Australian waters. During the following week, capitalising on widespread general hostility towards Afghanistan and Islam in the wake of the September 11 attacks, the Australian parliament rushed through legislation implementing unprecedented measures to keep out asylum seekers. The Australian government's actions chillingly foreshadowed a wider western reaction. In May 2002, Britain's prime minister Blair proposed a series of initiatives strikingly similar to those adopted by Australia, including the use of the Royal Navy to intercept and turn back asylum seekers and the internment of refugees off-shore on large ships leased by the government. The story of the Tampa, then, is part of an unfolding global story.


Significance The government vows that freeports will represent “hubs of enterprise which will allow places to carry out business inside a country’s land border but where different customs rules apply”. The creation of freeports are a central component of Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s government to facilitate global trade and promote regional regeneration in the post-Brexit era. Impacts With Brexit, London will have more flexibility regarding the concessions it can offer businesses operating in freeports. The government vows to create freeports in the devolved regions but faces the difficult task of cooperating with the devolved governments. Some poorer regions will miss out on freeports, which could leave them even more deprived and stoke local resentment against London.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document