Black Sea Fleet projects Russian power westwards

Subject The growing power of the Russian navy in the Black Sea region. Significance Russia's annexation of Crimea has reshaped the geopolitical environment in the Black Sea and its neighbourhood. New frigates and submarines are being acquired, and cruise missiles will provide a much extended range. With its strategic options no longer constrained by Ukrainian sovereignty over the Sevastopol base, Moscow can use naval and air forces to dominate the sea and create a forbidding environment for potential adversaries, including NATO. Impacts The deterioration in relations with Turkey could manifest itself in maritime tensions between the two states. Access to the Bosphorus may restrain both Russia and Turkey from encroaching on one another's maritime rights despite hostile rhetoric. US and European militaries will review naval capacity and may reinforce Mediterranean patrols to counter the increased Russian presence.

Kybernetes ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 47 (8) ◽  
pp. 1664-1686 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cihan Çetinkaya ◽  
Mehmet Kabak ◽  
Mehmet Erbaş ◽  
Eren Özceylan

Purpose The aim of this study is to evaluate the potential geographic locations for ecotourism activities and to select the best one among alternatives. Design/methodology/approach The proposed model consists of four sequential phases. In the first phase, different geographic criteria are determined based on existing literature, and data are gathered using GIS. On equal criteria weighing, alternative locations are determined using GIS in the second phase. In the third phase, the identified criteria are weighted using analytical hierarchy process (AHP) by various stakeholders of potential ecotourism sites. In the fourth phase, the PROMETHEE method is applied to determine the best alternative based on the weighted criteria. Findings A framework including four sequential steps is proposed. Using real data from the Black Sea region in Turkey, the authors test the applicability of the evaluation approach and compare the best alternative obtained by the proposed method for nine cities in the region. Consequently, west of Sinop, east of Artvin and south of the Black Sea region are determined as very suitable locations for ecotourism. Research limitations/implications The first limitation of the study is considered the number of included criteria. Another limitation is the use of deterministic parameters that do not cope with uncertainty. Further research can be conducted for determining the optimum locations for different types of tourism, e.g. religion tourism, hunting tourism and golf tourism, for effective tourism planning. Practical implications The proposed approach can be applied to all area that cover the considered criteria. The approach has been tested in the Black Sea region (nine cities) in Turkey. Social implications Using the proposed approach, decision-makers can determine locations where environmentally responsible travel to natural areas to enjoy and appreciate nature that promotes conservation have a low visitor impact and provide for beneficially active socioeconomic involvement of local individuals. Originality/value To the best knowledge of the authors, this is the first study which applies a GIS-based multi-criteria decision-making approach for ecotourism site selection.


2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 281-293
Author(s):  
Hatice Akpinar ◽  
Bekir Sahin

Purpose The purpose of this study is to fill the gap and apply a fault tree analysis (FTA) in detention lists of Black Sea Region published port state reports from 2005 to 2016. The study analyzes valid records of 2,653 detained ships with 6,374 deficiencies based on a strategic management approach. This paper sets up FTA technique to assess the detention probability of a random ship which calls the Black Sea Region with the help of detention lists published within subject years. Design/methodology/approach This paper is not published elsewhere, and it is based on an original work, which figures out detention probability of a regular ship at Black Sea Region port state control from published lists of Black Sea Memorandum of Understanding (MoU). By utilizing these detention lists, a generic fault tree diagram is drawn. Those probabilities could be used strategically with the most seen deficiencies in the region which all could guide the users, rule makers and the controllers of the maritime system. Findings FTA has conducted based on the data which was collected from website of BS MoU detention lists that published from 2005 to 2016. Those lists have been published on monthly basis from 2011 to 2016 and on quarterly basis from 2005 to 2010. Proper detention records have been included into the research, whereas some missing records were excluded. Subject lists have been harmonized and rearranged according to Black Sea MoU Detention Codes which was published on October 2017 at Black Sea MoU’s website. According to BS MoU Annual Reports, 58,620 ships were inspected from 2005 to 2016 as seen in Table 1. Those ships were inspected by each member country’s PSOs in the light and guidance of predefined selection criteria of the region. Detention frequency of inspected ships detected as 0.103116 which explains any ship that called any port in the Black Sea Region could be 10% detained after inspected by PSO. Also, each intermediate event-calculated frequency enlightens the probabilities of nonconformities of ships. Although those deficiencies show structural safety and security nonconformities, those probabilities also prove us that management side of the ships are not enough to manage and apply a safety culture. By the light of that, ship owners/managers could see the general nonconformities according to regional records and could manage their fleet and each ship as per those necessities. Research limitations/implications In the light of the above analysis, the future research on this subject could be studied on other regions which might enable a benchmark opportunity to users. Also, insurance underwriters have their own reports and publications that could clarify different points of view for merchant mariners and regulators. In this research, FTA is used as a main method to figure out the root causes of the detentions. For future researches, different qualitative and quantitative methods could be used under the direction of subjects. Practical implications Detention frequency of inspected ships detected as 0.103116 which explains any ship that called any port in the Black Sea Region could be 10% detained after inspected by PSO. Also, each intermediate event-calculated frequency enlightens the probabilities of nonconformities of ships. Although those deficiencies show structural safety and security nonconformities, those probabilities also prove us that management side of the ships are not enough to manage and apply safety culture. By the light of that, ship owners/managers could see the general nonconformities according to regional records and could manage their fleet and each ship as per those necessities. Social implications With the nature of carriage, shipping business carry out its essential economic attendance in world trade system via inclusion in national and international transportation. As a catalyst in international trade, shipping itself enables time, place and economic benefits to users (Bosneagu, Coca and Sorescu, 2015). Social and institutional pressures generate shipping industry as one of the most regulated global industries which creates high complexity. Industry evolved to multi-directional structure ranges from international conventions (IMO and ILO) to “supra-national interferences” (EU directives), to regional guidance (MoUs) to national laws (flag states). Ship operators endeavor to adopt/fit its industry environment where rules are obvious. With adaptation of industrial environment, ship operators are able to create an important core competency. Originality/value This study enlightens the most recorded deficiencies and analyzed them with the help of fault three method. These calculated frequencies/probabilities show the most seen nonconformities and the root causes of detentions in the Black Sea Region in which those results will be benefited strategically that enables a holistic point of view that guide the owners/managers, charterers/sellers/shippers, classification societies, marine insurance underwriters, ship investors, third parties, rule makers and the controllers of the system to apply safety culture.


Significance The likely summit agenda includes deliverables that will further enhance NATO’s deterrence posture and add new elements to its support for the campaign against Islamic State (IS). However, concerns are widespread that US President Donald Trump will use the summit to castigate his country’s European allies for not sharing fairly the burden of defence spending, especially as transatlantic ties are already strained by the recent US imposition of trade tariffs, which also disrupted the G7 meeting earlier this month. Impacts Following the agreement on the name North Macedonia, that country will formally be put on the path towards NATO membership. NATO’s new command structure is likely to be agreed at the summit, heralding an expansion in personnel. Summit outcomes may include additional deterrence measures for the Black Sea region. NATO will announce that allied defence spending grew by over 4% since January 2017; defence companies could benefit. NATO-EU ties will be described as reaching new highs owing to greater military cooperation and efforts to meet 'hybrid' threats.


Subject Planned NATO deployments in the Baltic states. Significance NATO military officials discussed the planned deployment next year of 4,000 troops to the Baltic states at the alliance's September 16-18 Military Committee Conference in Split, Croatia. The NATO decision over the summer to deploy four multinational battalions to Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland is an important signal that NATO continues to reorient itself towards the challenge of an assertive Russia along the alliance's eastern rim, and will have implications for an evolving NATO posture in Europe. Impacts NATO members in the Black Sea region, specifically Romania and Bulgaria, may call for similar arrangements in the future. NATO non-members Finland and Sweden will seek to engage with the multinational battalions to enhance interoperability. The rotating NATO battalions may be ill suited to respond to low-level Russian provocations.


Significance Chronic infighting is preventing the government from dealing with basic challenges and honouring its commitment to restore judicial independence. Personalities, inter-party turf wars and the renewed politicisation of justice are driving the disputes. Unless they abate, the Citu government is unlikely to last long. Impacts Introversion and disarray at the top of government are eroding Romania’s international standing as tensions rise in the Black Sea region. The coalition may struggle to agree a strategy for spending funds from the EU’s recovery fund. The former communist PSD, which left office in 2019, is likely to continue to regain popularity.


Paléorient ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 39 (2) ◽  
pp. 173-182
Author(s):  
Bleda S. Düring ◽  
Bernard Gratuze

2019 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 161-185
Author(s):  
Małgorzata Podolak

Views on the institution of direct democracy have changed during the period of democratic transition. The various advantages and positive effects of direct democracy have been confirmed by the practice of some democratic countries. Its educational and political activation value for society was also noted, without which civil society cannot form. The referendum is especially treated as the purest form of correlation between the views of society and the decisions of its representatives. In a situation where two representative bodies are present – the parliament and the president – a referendum is considered a means of resolving disputes between them in important state affairs. The referendum is nowadays becoming more than just a binding or consultative opinion on a legislative act, especially a constitution. First and foremost, it is important to see the extension of the type and scope of issues that are subject to direct voting. Apart from the traditional, i.e., constitutional changes, polarising issues that raise considerable emotion have become the subject of referenda. Problems of this type include, in particular, moral issues, membership in international organisations, and so-called ‘New Policy’. This article presents the role and importance of the referendum as an institution shaping the democratic systems of the Black Sea Region.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emil Oynakov ◽  
Liliya Dimitrova ◽  
Lyubka Pashova ◽  
Dragomir Dragomirov

<p>Low-laying territories along the Black Sea coastal line are more vulnerable to the possible high (long) waves due to tsunami events caused by strong earthquakes in the active seismic regions. Historically, such events are rare in the Black Sea region, despite some scientific evidence of tsunamis and their recordings through continuous sea-level observations with tide gauges built in certain places along the coast. This study analyses seismic data derived from different international earthquake catalogues - NEIC, ISC, EMSC, IDC and Bulgarian national catalogue (1981 - 2019). A catalogue of earthquakes within the period covering the historical to the contemporary seismicity with magnitudes M ≥ 3 is compiled. The data are processed applying the software package ZMAP, developed by Stefan Wiemer (http://www.seismo.ethz.ch/en/research-and-teaching/products-software/software/ZMAP/index.html). The catalogues' completeness is calculated to assess the reliability of the historical data needed to assess the risk of rare tsunami events. The prevailing part of the earthquakes' epicentres are in the seismically active regions of Shabla, the Crimean peninsula, the east and southeast coast of the Black Sea forming six main clusters, which confirmed previous studies in the region. In these areas, several active and potentially active faults, which can generate tsunamigenic seismic events, are recognized.</p><p><strong>Acknowledgements: </strong>The authors would like to thank the Bulgarian National Science Fund for co-funding the research under the Contract КП-СЕ-КОСТ/8, 25.09.2020, which is carried out within framework of COST Action 18109 “Accelerating Global science In Tsunami HAzard and Risk analysis” (AGITHAR; https://www.agithar.uni-hamburg.de/).</p>


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