Protest groups signal shift in Middle East politics

Subject Civil society protest movements in Iraq and Lebanon. Significance Protest movements in the Middle East have been curtailed severely by retrenched autocratic governments and civil wars since the Arab uprisings in 2011. With their relatively open political systems, Lebanon and Iraq never participated in these protests fully. However, over the past year they have seen a resurgence in grassroots politics that could influence civil society across the region. Impacts Protest movements provide an outlet for popular frustration; their repression increases the risk of longer-term political instability. Egypt, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Tunisia and Morocco have the most favourable conditions for a revival of civil society protest movements. Such movements could play a larger role in Yemen, Libya and Syria after conflicts have ended. In the longer run, these movements could benefit business in the region by driving efforts to fight corruption and improve transparency.

Subject Regime resilience in the Middle East. Significance The Middle East's political order has been shaken at the start of the 21st century by the sudden and violent removal of long-standing authoritarian rulers in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Iraq and Yemen; mass protests against the government in Tehran; and the collapse of regime authority in large parts of Syria. Far from paving the way to an era of more democratic and stable rule in the Middle East, most countries have instead experienced increasingly dysfunctional governance, reinforced authoritarianism, sectarian tensions, or civil wars. This raises questions about the sustainability of the status quo and the long-term direction of political systems across the region. Impacts Some countries may yet transition to more representative and accountable forms of government over the next ten years (Tunisia, Morocco). Deteriorating economic conditions and escalating proxy conflicts will see volatility rise across the region. The United States will resist pressure to step up its intervention in the region to help restore stability. Political Islam is unlikely to make a serious comeback in the near term, but will be active in Morocco, Tunisia, Bahrain and Kuwait. Regime repression and security force brutality will radicalise political opposition and increase recruitment to jihadist groups.


2006 ◽  
Vol 38 (3) ◽  
pp. 369-393 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard T. Antoun

In the Middle East over the past half-century, three religious processes have grown together. One, the growth of fundamentalism, has received worldwide attention both by academics and journalists. The others, the bureaucratization of religion and the state co-optation of religion, of equal duration but no less importance, have received much less attention. The bureaucratization of religion focuses on the hierarchicalization of religious specialists and state co-optation of religion focuses on their neutralization as political opponents. Few commentators link the three processes. In Jordan, fundamentalism, the bureaucratization of religion (BOR), and state co-optation of religion (SCR) have become entwined sometimes in mutually supportive and sometimes in antagonistic relations. The following case study will describe and analyze the implications of this mutual entanglement for the relations of state and civil society and for the human beings simultaneously bureaucratized and “fundamentalized.”


Significance In June, Morocco accused Algeria of illicitly facilitating the transfer of Western Saharan independence leader Brahim Ghali to Spain for medical treatment. In July, an investigative journalism consortium revealed that Morocco had been engaged in a cyber espionage offensive that targeted, among others, Algerian politicians, military officers, civil society activists and journalists. Morocco extended an olive branch, which Algeria immediately rejected. Impacts Though Brussels has long favoured Rabat over Algiers, Morocco’s recent actions may reinvigorate Algeria-EU relations The developments, which seem detrimental to Morocco’s foreign relations, may indicate that King Mohammed has less control than in the past. Moroccan and Algerian business communities are unlikely to be impacted by the diplomatic spats.


Author(s):  
James Gelvin

Beginning in December 2010 popular revolt swept through the Middle East, shocking the world and ushering in a period of unprecedented unrest. Protestors took to the streets to demand greater freedom, democracy, human rights, social justice, and regime change. What caused these uprisings? What is their significance? And what are their likely consequences? In an engaging question-and-answer format, this updated edition of The Arab Uprisings: What Everyone Needs to Know® explores all aspects of the revolutionary protests that have rocked the Middle East. Historian James Gelvin begins with an overview, asking questions such as: What sparked the Arab uprisings? Where did the demands for democracy and human rights come from? How appropriate is the phrase “Arab Spring”?--before turning to specific countries around the region. Shifting the emphasis from the initial upheaval itself to the spinning out of the revolutionary process, Gelvin looks at such topics as the role of youth, laor, and religious groups in Tunisia and Egypt and discusses why the military turned against rulers in both countries. Exploring the uprisings in Libya and Yemen, Gelvin explains why these two states are considered “weak,” why that status is important for understanding the upheavals there, and why outside powers intervened in Libya but not in Yemen. This second edition looks more closely at the situation of individual countries affected by the uprisings. Gelvin compares two cases that defied expectations: Algeria, which experts assumed would experience a major upheaval after Egypt’s, and Syria, which experts failed to foresee. He then looks at the monarchies of Morocco, Jordan, and the Gulf, exploring the commonalities and differences of protest movements in each. Reconsidering the possible historical significance of the uprisings Gelvin explores what this means for the United States and Iran. Has al-Qaeda been strengthened or weakened? What effects have the uprisings had on the Israel-Palestine conflict? What conclusions might we draw from the uprisings so far? What Everyone Needs to Know® is a registered trademark of Oxford University Press.


Subject State fragmentation in the Middle East. Significance The 2011 uprisings exposed the weaknesses of the region's political systems and state institutions, highlighting their failure to meet their population's aspirations. This was particularly the case in countries created on artificial colonial boundaries that contain a diverse range of ethnic, sectarian and tribal groups. The conflicts that emerged from the uprisings look set to accelerate the fragmentation of the state in these areas. Impacts In the short term, the creation of new ethnic- or sectarian-based self-governing entities will increase the risk of ethnic cleansing. Allowing self-government without formal recognition of secession can yield sustainable peace and stability. The survival of these new entities will depend on their economic viability as well as acquiescence from the 'parent state' and neighbours. Their stability could be jeopardised by external actors seeking to use them as proxies in regional power struggles.


Significance In October, Netanyahu travelled to Oman -- the first visit there by an Israeli premier in decades. In the past few years, relations between Israel and most of the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states have warmed, but this has not been publicised. More recently, GCC states have become less concerned whether their relations with Israel become public knowledge. Meanwhile, the United States is encouraging rapprochement as one of the anchors of its Middle East policy. Impacts Netanyahu may soon visit Bahrain, the first public visit by an Israeli leader to the country. Relations with Qatar will follow a separate track to other Gulf states. A political opening would create economic opportunities.


1997 ◽  
Vol 31 (2) ◽  
pp. 163-164
Author(s):  
Augustus Richard Norton

In His Review essay on “Civil Society, Liberalism and the Corporatist Alternative in the Middle East,” Louis J. Cantori continues his indefatigable promotion of corporatism as a lens for understanding Middle East politics. Lou and I have been friends for many years, and I know that I probably will not be able to shake his deep attachment to corporatism. Nonetheless, since the inspiration for his latest peroration was the two volume collection on civil society in the Middle East that I edited, I thought readers of the Bulletin might be interested in my response to his assertions.


2015 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 220-233 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bill Tupman

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to assess what an overview of theoretical literature and case study material can tell us about the different ways crime has been organised in the past in different cultures and whether this has any impact on the ways in which crime may be organised in the present and the future. Design/methodology/approach – The analysis is based on an examination of Mcintyre’s work on how crime is organised and later political, economic and civil society views of criminality. Brief discussion of case studies involving the UK, The Netherlands, the Arab world, Ethiopia and Russia is used to see how crime was organised there in the past. Findings – There is a greater variety of variables in the way crime was organised historically than McIntyre suggests, and an examination of civil society might pay greater dividends than even looking at politics or economic aspects of organised crime. Research limitations/implications – The study is preliminary. More historical case study material needs to be accessed. Originality/value – There are many research case studies, particularly at PhD level and in subjects other than criminology, such as history, language studies and cultural studies generally, which have not been brought together to present an overall picture. This paper is a first step in that direction.


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