Middle East regimes will survive lasting instability

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Civil Wars ◽  
The United States ◽  
Political Systems ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Status ◽  
Near Term ◽  
The Government ◽  
Regime Resilience

Subject Regime resilience in the Middle East. Significance The Middle East's political order has been shaken at the start of the 21st century by the sudden and violent removal of long-standing authoritarian rulers in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Iraq and Yemen; mass protests against the government in Tehran; and the collapse of regime authority in large parts of Syria. Far from paving the way to an era of more democratic and stable rule in the Middle East, most countries have instead experienced increasingly dysfunctional governance, reinforced authoritarianism, sectarian tensions, or civil wars. This raises questions about the sustainability of the status quo and the long-term direction of political systems across the region. Impacts Some countries may yet transition to more representative and accountable forms of government over the next ten years (Tunisia, Morocco). Deteriorating economic conditions and escalating proxy conflicts will see volatility rise across the region. The United States will resist pressure to step up its intervention in the region to help restore stability. Political Islam is unlikely to make a serious comeback in the near term, but will be active in Morocco, Tunisia, Bahrain and Kuwait. Regime repression and security force brutality will radicalise political opposition and increase recruitment to jihadist groups.

Italy's politics without policy: Balancing Atlanticism and Europeanism in the Middle East

Modern Italy ◽  
2008 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 135-153 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raffaella A. Del Sarto ◽  
Nathalie Tocci
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Middle East ◽  
The United States ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Government ◽  
Specific Interests ◽  
Policy Shifts ◽  
The Eu

Focusing on Italy's Middle East policies under the second Berlusconi (2001–2006) and the second Prodi (2006–2008) governments, this article assesses the manner and extent to which the observed foreign policy shifts between the two governments can be explained in terms of the rebalancing between a ‘Europeanist’ and a transatlantic orientation. Arguing that Rome's policy towards the Middle East hinges less on Italy's specific interests and objectives in the region and more on whether the preference of the government in power is to foster closer ties to the United States or concentrate on the European Union, the analysis highlights how these swings of the pendulum along the EU–US axis are inextricably linked to a number of underlying structural weaknesses of Rome's foreign policy. In particular, the oscillations can be explained by the prevalence of short-term political (and domestic) considerations and the absence of long-term, substantive political strategies, or, in short, by the phenomenon of ‘politics without policy’ that often characterises Italy's foreign policy.

Protest groups signal shift in Middle East politics

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Middle East ◽  
Civil Wars ◽  
Political Systems ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Protest Movements ◽  
Grassroots Politics ◽  
The Past ◽  
Arab Uprisings ◽  
Middle East Politics

Subject Civil society protest movements in Iraq and Lebanon. Significance Protest movements in the Middle East have been curtailed severely by retrenched autocratic governments and civil wars since the Arab uprisings in 2011. With their relatively open political systems, Lebanon and Iraq never participated in these protests fully. However, over the past year they have seen a resurgence in grassroots politics that could influence civil society across the region. Impacts Protest movements provide an outlet for popular frustration; their repression increases the risk of longer-term political instability. Egypt, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Tunisia and Morocco have the most favourable conditions for a revival of civil society protest movements. Such movements could play a larger role in Yemen, Libya and Syria after conflicts have ended. In the longer run, these movements could benefit business in the region by driving efforts to fight corruption and improve transparency.

Mongolia's stability and growth face external threats

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Market ◽  
The United States ◽  
Political Movement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
External Threats ◽  
Political Unity ◽  
Political Conditions ◽  
The Government ◽  
External Forces

Subject The political and economic outlook for Mongolia. Significance Mongolia is recovering from a largely self-inflicted financial crisis that resulted in an IMF bailout two years ago. Meanwhile, isolationism in the United States and weakened political unity in the EU leave Mongolia with little choice but to slide further towards the neighbouring powers, China and Russia -- an uncomfortable trend for the sole liberal democracy in the region. Mongolia’s return to growth and relative political calm is dampened by external forces including weakness in metals prices and emerging market currencies. Impacts The government will focus on strengthening the economy; the direction of economic policy bodes well for continued growth. Infrastructure needs, such as energy and secure long-term water supplies for the capital, will see significant progress towards resolution. The 'truce' between the two major parties makes political conditions ripe for disruption by a new political movement or politician.

Infrastructure will not boost near-term Brazil growth

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Construction Companies ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Infrastructure Investments ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Poor Infrastructure

Subject Shortcomings in Brazilian infrastructure. Significance The quality of Brazil’s infrastructure is a key business complaint. Infrastructure is viewed as central to boosting the country’s long-term competitiveness, as well as a potential motor of recovery from the economic crisis. However, infrastructure investment remains low. This is due in part to the budgetary restrictions faced by the government, but also to the impact of corruption scandals on leading construction companies. Impacts Better roads, railways and ports will be central to boosting Brazil's exports, notably of primary commodities. Poor infrastructure will continue to affect both business and the daily life of ordinary citizens, particularly in remote regions. The execution of infrastructure investments could produce positive and long-lasting effects on the overall economy.

China's space activities gain strategic importance

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Arms Control ◽  
Satellite Navigation ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Potential ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Space Activities ◽  
Do So

Significance Its capabilities do not match those of the United States except in a few narrow areas, and may never do so, but they do have increasingly significant strategic implications. Impacts Satellite navigation is the sector with the greatest economic potential for China in the near term. Advances in the development of space weapons make arms control both more urgent and more difficult. Satellite internet and lunar mining are areas of potential China-US competition in the medium and long term respectively. China's lunar programme benefits from more consistent policies than NASA, but suffers from a smaller budget and few international partners.

The Mortality Rate of COVID-19 in Iraq Compare with Iran and Turkey, its Association with the Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccine and the Iraqi Preparedness Plan Prior to Pandemics. (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rawand Essa
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Daily Basis ◽  
Bcg Vaccine ◽  
Critical Position ◽  
Preparedness Plan ◽  
Contagious Diseases ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Government

BACKGROUND In the span of COVID-19, the mortality rate has been different from one country to another. As a country in the Middle East Iraq has a critical position, lies between Iran and Turkey while both countries coronavirus cases increase on daily basis, while Iranian mortality rate record is high similar to Turkey. After Wuhan city of China, Lombard of Italy, Qum city in Iran has the highest number of COVID-19 as a first country in the Middle East. OBJECTIVE aim of this study is to show the effect of BCG vaccine during pandemic diseases, especially nowadays at the time of COVID-19. One of the crucial observations is the government preparedness and strategic planning prior pandemics, in which the BCG vaccine is an attenuated live vaccine for control of tuberculosis (TB). BCG vaccine has a non-specific immune effect that is used against pathogens like bacteria and viruses, through the promotion of pro-inflammatory cytokines' secretion. METHODS An epidemiological study has been performed, and it shows that some countries are more prone to contagious diseases like COVID-19, regardless of the main cultural, religious, societal similarities among the three mentioned countries. The information data has been collected from WHO reports and worldometer in 18 February 2020 to 10 May 2020. Regarding the efficacy of the BCG vaccine, relevant data has been retrieved from Google scholar, Pub-med and BCG world-atlas. RESULTS COVID-19 mortality rates are at peak in Iran and Turkey while the mortality rate is very low in Iraq, while the patients that died in Iraq all had history of other long-term diseases as heart disease, blood pressure, cancer etc. CONCLUSIONS From the experiences of the three countries in the life span of COVID-19, the historical plan of BCG vaccine in Iraq in cooperation with WHO since the last decades it shows that COVID-19 mortality rate is lower than other countries due to the early vaccination of the Iraqis, otherwise Iraq is more fragile than Iran and Turkey due to the poor conditions of Iraq in terms of economics, politics, war and other aspects.

scholarly journals Measuring the Impacts of Saffron Production Promotion Measures on Farmers’ Policy Acceptance Probability: A Randomized Conjoint Field Experiment in Herat Province, Afghanistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 4026
Author(s):  
Mohammad Wais Azimy ◽  
Ghulam Dastgir Khan ◽  
Yuichiro Yoshida ◽  
Keisuke Kawata
Keyword(s):  
Causal Effects ◽  
Acceptance Probability ◽  
Promotion Policy ◽  
Governmental Organizations ◽  
Non Governmental Organizations ◽  
Promotion Policies ◽  
The Status ◽  
Conjoint Experiment ◽  
The Government

The government of Afghanistan promotes saffron production as a means to achieve economic development while reducing the widely spread opium cultivation in the country by providing necessary support to its farmers via saffron farmer service centers. This study investigates the causal effects of relevant attributes of potential saffron production promotion policies on the participation probabilities of saffron farmers. This study applies a randomized conjoint experiment to primary survey data of 298 farmers in Herat Province, which is perceived by the government as the center of saffron production in the country. The proposed hypothetical saffron production promotion policy consists of six attributes, namely, provision of machinery equipment, weather-based crop insurance, accessibility to long-term loans, location of saffron farmer service centers, provider of services, and annual payment. In the randomized conjoint experiment design, the respondents rank two alternative policies and policies against the status quo. The desirable policy comprises the machinery provision, long-term (up to 5 years) loan accessibility, an easily accessible service center, and policy implementation by international non-governmental organizations (NGOs). The estimated results reveal that saffron farmers are highly supportive of the proposed saffron promotion policy and that their willingness to pay is as high as 17% of their per capita income.

Using system dynamics to evaluate renewable electricity development in Malaysia

Kybernetes ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 43 (1) ◽  
pp. 24-39 ◽  
Author(s):  
Salman Ahmad ◽  
Razman bin Mat Tahar
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Capacity Expansion ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Flow Diagram ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Policy Targets

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to provide an assessment of Malaysia's renewable capacity target. Malaysia relies heavily on fossil fuels for electricity generation. To diversify the fuel-mix, a technology-specific target has been set by the government in 2010. Considering the complexity in generation expansion, there is a dire need for an assessment model that can evaluate policy in a feedback fashion. The study also aims to expand policy evaluation literature in electricity domain by taking a dynamic systems approach. Design/methodology/approach – System dynamics modelling and simulation approach is used in this study. The model variables, selected from literature, are constituted into casual loop diagram. Later, a stock and flow diagram is developed by integrating planning, construction, operation, and decision making sub-models. The dynamic interactions between the sub-sectors are analysed based on the short-, medium- and long-term policy targets. Findings – Annual capacity constructions fail to achieve short-, medium- and long-term targets. However, the difference in operational capacity and medium- and long-term target are small. In terms of technology, solar photovoltaic (PV) attains the highest level of capacity followed by biomass. Research limitations/implications – While financial calculations are crucial for capacity expansion decisions, currently they are not being modelled; this study primarily focuses on system delays and exogenous components only. Practical implications – A useful model that offers regulators and investors insights on system characteristics and policy targets simultaneously. Originality/value – This paper provides a model for evaluating policy for renewable capacity expansion development in a dynamic context, for Malaysia.

Does Insurgent Selective Punishment Deter Collaboration? Evidence from the Drone War in Pakistan

2021 ◽  
pp. 002200272110411
Author(s):  
Vincent Bauer ◽  
Michael Reese ◽  
Keven Ruby
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Civil Wars ◽  
The United States ◽  
Suppressive Effect ◽  
The Future ◽  
State Actors ◽  
Tribal Areas

Scholars of civil wars have long argued that non-state actors can use selective punishment to reduce collaboration with state adversaries. However, there is little systematic evidence confirming this claim, nor investigation into the mechanisms at play. In this paper, we provide such evidence from the drone war in Pakistan. Militants in Pakistan’s tribal areas engaged in a brutal counterespionage campaign with the aim of reducing collaboration with the United States. Our analysis combines a novel dataset of collaborator killings with data on drone strike outcomes. We find that strikes killed half as many militant leaders and fighters following collaborator killings and that this suppressive effect likely works by deterring spying in the future. Beyond providing an empirical confirmation of the selective punishment hypothesis, our paper suggests an unacknowledged vulnerability of the drone program to reprisals against local allies and collaborators that limits its effectiveness as a long-term tool of counterterrorism.

Demobilisation will be a long-term challenge in Libya

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Near Term ◽  
The Many ◽  
Financial Arrangements

Significance Although a ceasefire has been in place since October 2020, very little has been done during that time to integrate or demobilise the many armed forces and groups that exist across the country. The obstacles are formidable. Impacts Significant demobilisation and reintegration will not happen in the near term. Local security will continue to rest on fragile political and financial arrangements between armed groups and governing authorities. The current high levels of oil and gas revenue will tend to discourage unrest.

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