New 'de facto' states could reshape the Middle East
Subject State fragmentation in the Middle East. Significance The 2011 uprisings exposed the weaknesses of the region's political systems and state institutions, highlighting their failure to meet their population's aspirations. This was particularly the case in countries created on artificial colonial boundaries that contain a diverse range of ethnic, sectarian and tribal groups. The conflicts that emerged from the uprisings look set to accelerate the fragmentation of the state in these areas. Impacts In the short term, the creation of new ethnic- or sectarian-based self-governing entities will increase the risk of ethnic cleansing. Allowing self-government without formal recognition of secession can yield sustainable peace and stability. The survival of these new entities will depend on their economic viability as well as acquiescence from the 'parent state' and neighbours. Their stability could be jeopardised by external actors seeking to use them as proxies in regional power struggles.