Chinese leadership will boost global climate efforts

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
The United States ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Secretary General ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Emissions Reductions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Major Review ◽  
The Eu

Subject China-US cooperation on climate change. Significance China and the United States ratified the Paris Agreement ahead of the September 4-5 G20 Summit in Hangzhou, by depositing their respective instruments with UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon. Impacts US and Chinese ratification puts the EU under heavy pressure to follow suit. There is a good chance of the Paris Agreement coming into force by December 2016. Beijing might well take the lead again as the next major review of international efforts approaches in 2018. A Donald Trump presidency in the United States could see China-US cooperation on emissions reductions unravel.

China-US deal sets stage for new climate change regime

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bilateral Agreement ◽  
The Eu ◽  
Game Changer

Significance The United States has already committed, in an unprecedented deal with China in November 2014, to reducing its emissions to 26-28% below 2005 levels by 2025 (an improvement on its previous 17% goal). China in return pledged that its emissions would peak around 2030. This agreement is a game-changer for combating global climate change, since the two countries are the world's largest sources of carbon emissions, together accounting for 40% of the total, and were not covered under the now-expired Kyoto Protocol. Impacts Washington is poised to reclaim its place, lost after Kyoto, as a leader in global efforts against climate change. US-China climate cooperation initiatives could serve as templates for other developing countries. There are new opportunities for trilateral cooperation involving the EU. Fears that the bilateral agreement makes the UNFCCC obsolete are unwarranted, but it could preclude more ambitious efforts.

US missile defence plans will prove overly ambitious

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Vice President ◽  
The United States ◽  
Nuclear Forces ◽  
Missile Defense ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Defence Policy ◽  
Major Review ◽  
Missile Attack

Subject The Pentagon's recent Missile Defense Review. Significance President Donald Trump this month unveiled the first major review of US missile defence policy since 2010. Trump and his vice president have become staunch missile defence advocates, championing expansion in conjunction and coordination with efforts to create a Space Force. The ambitious effort outlined in the Pentagon’s Missile Defense Review this month would take the current, regionally focused missile defence programme and expand it so that it can, according to Trump, protect US nationals from missile attack, "anywhere, anytime, anyplace". Impacts US advances in defensive capabilities will trigger technological escalation as China and Russia move to improve offensive capabilities. Washington likely cannot afford to keep pace with potential adversaries' offensive capabilities because defensive capabilities cost more. If the United States overtly ‘weaponises’ space, other countries will follow. The demise of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces treaty will bring a whole class of destabilising missiles back into the equation.

EU defence may focus on cooperation, not integration

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Research And Development ◽  
The United States ◽  
Development Cooperation ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Defence Sector ◽  
Defence Cooperation ◽  
Fresh Impetus ◽  
The Eu

Significance The debate around European defence integration has surfaced periodically over past decades, but progress has fallen short of expectations. Brexit and the elections of Presidents Emmanuel Macron in France and Donald Trump in the United States have given fresh impetus to attempts to strengthen EU cooperation. Impacts Countries such as Italy and Poland will press the EU to devote more resources to their specific security-related challenges. For now, Brexit appears unlikely to affect the strong UK-French industrial arrangements in the defence sector. Defence cooperation will proceed primarily through further research and development cooperation.

United States Announces Plans to Withdraw from Paris Agreement on Climate Change

2017 ◽  
Vol 111 (4) ◽  
pp. 1036-1044 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
United Nations ◽  
The United States ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Secretary General ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
The United Nations

On September 3, 2016, the United States deposited with the UN its instrument of acceptance for the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. The agreement entered into force on November 4, 2016. Following the change of U.S. presidential administrations, new President Donald Trump announced less than seven months later that the United States would withdraw from the Agreement. On August 4, 2017, the United States communicated this intention to the United Nations secretary-general, who serves as the depositary for the agreement.

Canada-US ties will see fewer irritants under Biden

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Oil Industry ◽  
The United States ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Federal Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Un Peacekeeping ◽  
Keystone Xl ◽  
Keystone Xl Pipeline

Significance Canada’s Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is preparing to welcome a more predictable and stable partner in Biden than outgoing Republican President Donald Trump. However, Biden is also expected quickly to cancel the Keystone XL pipeline, cutting another lifeline to Canada’s oil industry and creating some strain in Canada-US ties. Impacts Improved Canada-US ties will persist even if Trudeau loses the next federal election to Conservative Erin O’Toole. Canada will re-engage militarily with UN peacekeeping and NATO deployments. Trudeau will encourage Biden to end US prosecution of Meng Wanzhou, allowing Canada to release her; Biden may agree. Canada’s border with the United States will open in stages as COVID-19 recedes. Ottawa will push Biden to end ‘Buy American’ procurement policies, with little success.

Creeping authoritarianism is a real risk in Tunisia

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Risk ◽  
Chief Prosecutor ◽  
Moderating Role ◽  
The Eu

Significance He did not name a new prime minister. Over July 25-26, Saied dismissed Prime Minister Hicham Mechichi, dissolved his government, suspended parliament for 30 days, lifted parliamentary immunity and declared himself chief prosecutor, triggering Tunisia’s worst political crisis in a decade. Impacts The Ennahda party could be persecuted once again, this time on corruption charges, as the reconciliation offered excludes its members. Tunisia may become a new ideological battleground, pitting Turkey and Qatar against the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia and Egypt. The EU, the United States and Algeria have some influence on Tunisia and could perhaps play a moderating role.

EU may struggle to enforce social standards via trade

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Environmental Standards ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Social Standards ◽  
Investment Agreement ◽  
Trade Deals ◽  
First Time ◽  
Trade Partners ◽  
The Eu

Significance In 2020 the European Commission appointed a Chief Trade Enforcement Officer for the first time, signalling that Brussels is intent on enhancing its capacity to enforce standards agreed in trade deals. However, the EU's experience with South Korea suggests that holding trade partners to account over breaching standards will be difficult. Impacts Relations with trade partners could deteriorate if the EU is seen to be aggressive in enforcing its standards. Concern over China’s willingness to improve labour and environmental standards could impede ratification the EU-China investment agreement. The EU may be reluctant to sanction some partners, such as the United States, that breach labour or environmental standards.

scholarly journals Fusing subnational with national climate action is central to decarbonization: the case of the United States

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nathan E. Hultman ◽  
Leon Clarke ◽  
Carla Frisch ◽  
Kevin Kennedy ◽  
Haewon McJeon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Integrated Assessment Model ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Emissions Reductions ◽  
Climate Action ◽  
Nationally Determined Contributions ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
Reduce Emissions

Abstract Approaches that root national climate strategies in local actions will be essential for all countries as they develop new nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement. The potential impact of climate action from non-national actors in delivering higher global ambition is significant. Sub-national action in the United States provides a test for how such actions can accelerate emissions reductions. We aggregated U.S. state, city, and business commitments within an integrated assessment model to assess how a national climate strategy can be built upon non-state actions. We find that existing commitments alone could reduce emissions 25% below 2005 levels by 2030, and that enhancing actions by these actors could reduce emissions up to 37%. We show how these actions can provide a stepped-up basis for additional federal action to reduce emissions by 49%—consistent with 1.5 °C. Our analysis demonstrates sub-national actions can lead to substantial reductions and support increased national action.

Russia prioritises ties with West despite its rhetoric

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Cooperation ◽  
Security Threats ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
The West ◽  
Policy Document ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Near Term

Subject Russia's new foreign policy document. Significance A new foreign policy concept presents Russia as a nation facing a range of security threats but nevertheless willing to play a global role in a multipolar, chaotic and unpredictable world. Replacing the 2013 foreign policy concept, the document also attempts to assuage fears of Russian expansionist intent. Impacts Assumptions about the United States may change rapidly under President Donald Trump. Moscow will strengthen its foothold in Syria as a bargaining chip with the West and to show its resolve not to back down under pressure. Russia will refuse to relax control over Ukraine's eastern regions. Asian policy will consist partly of courting China and partly of seeking alliances to counterbalance this. Economic cooperation with Japan will be constrained by lack of a near-term deal on territorial issues.

EU may not develop a joint stance on Chinese FDI soon

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Domestic Economy ◽  
The West ◽  
Economic Strategy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Foreign Companies ◽  
The Eu

Subject Chinese FDI into Europe. Significance China's hosting of the G20 summit on September 4-5 came as it is recalibrating its foreign economic strategy, becoming a major investor in the West and particularly the EU. With a few notable exceptions, EU governments have been keen to encourage those investments. Impacts While China will continue to relax restrictions on investments into its domestic economy, it is unlikely to reciprocate fully to the EU. Sectors China considers strategic, including defence equipment and infrastructure, will remain out of bounds to foreign companies. Concerns about the geostrategic risk of Chinese investments appear to resonate more strongly in Australia and the United States than the EU.

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