US missile defence plans will prove overly ambitious

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Vice President ◽  
The United States ◽  
Nuclear Forces ◽  
Missile Defense ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Defence Policy ◽  
Major Review ◽  
Missile Attack

Subject The Pentagon's recent Missile Defense Review. Significance President Donald Trump this month unveiled the first major review of US missile defence policy since 2010. Trump and his vice president have become staunch missile defence advocates, championing expansion in conjunction and coordination with efforts to create a Space Force. The ambitious effort outlined in the Pentagon’s Missile Defense Review this month would take the current, regionally focused missile defence programme and expand it so that it can, according to Trump, protect US nationals from missile attack, "anywhere, anytime, anyplace". Impacts US advances in defensive capabilities will trigger technological escalation as China and Russia move to improve offensive capabilities. Washington likely cannot afford to keep pace with potential adversaries' offensive capabilities because defensive capabilities cost more. If the United States overtly ‘weaponises’ space, other countries will follow. The demise of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces treaty will bring a whole class of destabilising missiles back into the equation.

Chinese leadership will boost global climate efforts

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
The United States ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Secretary General ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Emissions Reductions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Major Review ◽  
The Eu

Subject China-US cooperation on climate change. Significance China and the United States ratified the Paris Agreement ahead of the September 4-5 G20 Summit in Hangzhou, by depositing their respective instruments with UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon. Impacts US and Chinese ratification puts the EU under heavy pressure to follow suit. There is a good chance of the Paris Agreement coming into force by December 2016. Beijing might well take the lead again as the next major review of international efforts approaches in 2018. A Donald Trump presidency in the United States could see China-US cooperation on emissions reductions unravel.

You’re Fired! Donald Trump and the 2020 Congressional Elections

The Forum ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 627-650
Author(s):  
Jamie L. Carson ◽  
Spencer Hardin ◽  
Aaron A. Hitefield
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Vice President ◽  
The United States ◽  
Congressional Elections ◽  
General Election ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Modern Era

Abstract The 2020 elections brought to an end one of the most divisive and historic campaigns in the modern era. Former Vice President Joe Biden was elected the 46th President of the United States with the largest number of votes ever cast in a presidential election, defeating incumbent President Donald Trump in the process. The record turnout was especially remarkable in light of the ongoing pandemic surrounding COVID-19 and the roughly 236,000 Americans who had died of the virus prior to the election. This article examines the electoral context of the 2020 elections focusing on elections in both the House and Senate. More specifically, this article examines the candidates, electoral conditions, trends, and outcomes in the primaries as well as the general election. In doing so, we provide a comprehensive descriptive analysis of the climate and outcome of the 2020 congressional elections. Finally, the article closes with a discussion of the broader implications of the election outcomes on both the incoming 117th Congress as well as the upcoming 2022 midterm election.

Canada-US ties will see fewer irritants under Biden

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Oil Industry ◽  
The United States ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Federal Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Un Peacekeeping ◽  
Keystone Xl ◽  
Keystone Xl Pipeline

Significance Canada’s Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is preparing to welcome a more predictable and stable partner in Biden than outgoing Republican President Donald Trump. However, Biden is also expected quickly to cancel the Keystone XL pipeline, cutting another lifeline to Canada’s oil industry and creating some strain in Canada-US ties. Impacts Improved Canada-US ties will persist even if Trudeau loses the next federal election to Conservative Erin O’Toole. Canada will re-engage militarily with UN peacekeeping and NATO deployments. Trudeau will encourage Biden to end US prosecution of Meng Wanzhou, allowing Canada to release her; Biden may agree. Canada’s border with the United States will open in stages as COVID-19 recedes. Ottawa will push Biden to end ‘Buy American’ procurement policies, with little success.

Russia prioritises ties with West despite its rhetoric

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Cooperation ◽  
Security Threats ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
The West ◽  
Policy Document ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Near Term

Subject Russia's new foreign policy document. Significance A new foreign policy concept presents Russia as a nation facing a range of security threats but nevertheless willing to play a global role in a multipolar, chaotic and unpredictable world. Replacing the 2013 foreign policy concept, the document also attempts to assuage fears of Russian expansionist intent. Impacts Assumptions about the United States may change rapidly under President Donald Trump. Moscow will strengthen its foothold in Syria as a bargaining chip with the West and to show its resolve not to back down under pressure. Russia will refuse to relax control over Ukraine's eastern regions. Asian policy will consist partly of courting China and partly of seeking alliances to counterbalance this. Economic cooperation with Japan will be constrained by lack of a near-term deal on territorial issues.

US firms will feel pressure in China, trade war or not

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Integrated Circuits ◽  
The United States ◽  
Xi Jinping ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Trade Surplus ◽  
Content Type ◽  
China Trade ◽  
Trade War ◽  
Trump Administration

Subject China's options for retaliating against US firms during trade tensions. Significance US President Donald Trump tweeted yesterday that he is working with China's President Xi Jinping to get China's telecoms giant, ZTE, "back in business, fast" -- even though it was penal US sanctions that forced the company to announce last week that it was stopping operations. The Trump administration is divided on whether its objective in threatening imports tariffs on Chinese goods worth 50 billion dollars, effective May 22, is to strike a deal to cut China's trade surplus with the United States or to change China's industrial practices. Impacts Compliance costs will rise even if trade tensions subside. Investors in industries that China sees as strategic (eg, semiconductors and integrated circuits) may face unwritten screening rules. Investors in automobile, aircraft and shipping manufacturing and finance may find new opportunities to enter the market.

Erdogan will not alter US ties to Kurds

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Training And Support

Subject The Erdogan-Trump meeting on May 16. Significance Turkey yesterday blamed US officials for "security lapses" during President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's visit to Washington last week, which turned into a media disaster when the Turkish president’s guards beat up demonstrators in front of the TV cameras, with Erdogan looking on. The visit to meet President Donald Trump failed to produce any breakthrough on the issues dividing them, despite a friendly meeting at the White House. Although Trump is outwardly much more sympathetic to Erdogan than his predecessor was, the two countries are still far apart on Syria, where the United States remains the protector and ally of the Syrian Kurds. Impacts Turkey will continue to fortify the strip of land it occupies in northern Syria. It will step up training and support for the Sunni Arab rebel Free Syrian Army. Erdogan will respond to his increased international isolation by further clampdowns on remaining critics in Turkey.

Huawei 5G role prompts diplomatic pressures in Brazil

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Brazilian Government ◽  
Medical Supplies ◽  
Defence Industry ◽  
5G Network ◽  
Infrastructure Investments ◽  
Potential Option

Subject The politics of 5G in Brazil. Significance Brazil has started the process of choosing the supplier of its 5G network. The United States is a key player in this competition, and US President Donald Trump himself lobbied against the potential option of China’s Huawei during a March dinner with his Brazilian counterpart Jair Bolsonaro. While these efforts seek to reduce Huawei’s chances in the 5G auction, there is resistance within parts of the Brazilian government. Moreover, a diplomatic faux pas by Bolsonaro’s son may have favoured China’s position. Impacts US overtures may favour the Brazilian defence industry, with new partnerships on the cards. Beijing may seek to increase Huawei’s attractiveness with further Chinese infrastructure investments in Brazil. China will take advantage of its position as a provider of medical supplies and expertise to promote its position in Brazil. The result of the auction could prove to be a compromise arrangement grudgingly accepted by both sides.

US Space Force will start small and then evolve

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Air Force ◽  
Marine Corps ◽  
The United States ◽  
Coast Guard ◽  
Arms Race ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Military ◽  
The Us

Subject Creation of the US Space Force. Significance President Donald Trump on February 19 signed a directive ordering the Pentagon to draw up legislation establishing a Space Force as the sixth branch of the US military, alongside the Army, Navy, Air Force, Marine Corps and Coast Guard. Impacts A separation of air and space budgets could positively affect future military space modernisation and development programmes. Creation of the Space Force could ultimately move the United States closer towards openly putting weapons in space. If China and Russia perceive it this way, it creates the risk of an arms race in space.

Belarus will try to square Western ties with Russia

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Government Policy ◽  
The United States ◽  
The West ◽  
Policy Document ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Defence Policy ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Eu

Subject Belarus's attempts to court the EU and the United States. Significance The Belarusian government has shifted from an exclusively Russia-oriented foreign policy to a campaign to mend fences with the West. Government statements and a defence policy document speak of equal, non-adversarial relationships, while President Alexander Lukashenka has encouraged greater engagement with the EU and United States. Impacts Western governments will grant more legitimacy to the government. Opposition parties will find it harder to cite international isolation as a failed government policy. The EU's Eastern Partnership may be revitalised by its emerging role as conduit for ties with Belarus.

Trump administration may disengage from South Sudan

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
South Sudan ◽  
The United States ◽  
Policy Changes ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Government ◽  
Close Relationship ◽  
Trump Administration

Significance Though the United States and South Sudan have a long history, the surprise election of Donald Trump could shift Washington’s posture towards Juba. The deepening crisis there has soured a a once-close relationship. Impacts US Africa policy may be determined in large part by Trump’s personnel picks for senior Africa posts. As observers warn of possible genocide, a US government in transition will find itself ill-prepared to respond. The proposed 4,000-strong Regional Protection Force may find less support from the new administration. US humanitarian funding levels should remain high despite potential policy changes.

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