Next US president will confront nuclear disorder

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
National Security ◽  
The United States ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
Presidential Transition ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Nuclear Policy ◽  
The Us ◽  
Nuclear Response

Significance As Barack Obama eyes the January 2017 presidential transition, Washington's decades-long goal of a stable global nuclear order appears to be under threat from multiple quarters. Obama was mulling a US nuclear posture shift in August, whereby he would declare that the United States would only launch its nuclear deterrent in response to a nuclear strike by an adversary, ruling out a nuclear response to a conventional attack on US or allied forces. Impacts Deviation by Washington from support of disarmament and existing legal instruments could strain ties with some US allies. Trump's unorthodox positions on nuclear policy will promote defections by national security Republicans to Clinton's camp. A candidate's campaign trail rhetoric is likely to influence the credibility of the US nuclear deterrent once in office.

Crises and 'pivot' will boost US intelligence agencies

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
National Security ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
The United States ◽  
Intelligence Community ◽  
National Security Agency ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Public Scrutiny

Subject The US intelligence community in a year after purported reforms. Significance On December 29, an agreement between the United States, Japan and South Korea to share intelligence on North Korea went into effect. This ended a year in which the US intelligence community was the subject of broad domestic public scrutiny in the light of continued fallout from former National Security Agency (NSA) contractor Edward Snowden's leaks to a Senate report on the CIA's use of torture. The White House's support for reforms has been watched by tech and telecoms businesses that have lost considerable revenue from reputational damage as a result of the growing awareness of requirements on them of US intelligence activities. Impacts The Obama administration will rely on the US intelligence community as its main counterterrorist instrument. A Republican Congress will be less likely to support intelligence reforms, though only marginally so. There is no indication that the balance of power on intelligence issues between the executive and legislative branches has shifted.

US F-16 sale will strengthen Taiwan's China-sceptics

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
Trade Negotiations ◽  
Fighter Aircraft ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
The Us ◽  
Total Price ◽  
Trump Administration

Subject The US decision to sell advanced F-16 fighter jets to Taiwan. Significance The Trump administration has authorised the sale to Taiwan of 66 advanced F-16 fighter jets, the most coveted item among Taipei's wish-list of arms purchases from the United States. Taiwan has sought the purchase of advanced fighter aircraft for years, but the White House under both George W Bush and Barack Obama agreed only to upgrades for Taiwan's existing F-16 fleet. The total price is estimated to reach about 8 billion dollars. Impacts The arms sale will provide a boost in confidence for Taiwan, which has been falling behind China in defence capabilities. US-Taiwan cooperation will increase, despite Washington not formally recognising Taiwan as a sovereign nation. Taipei will seek dialogue with Beijing, but will be rebuffed at least until after the 2020 elections. Any sanctions China imposes because of the arms sale will probably be folded into future trade negotiations with Washington.

Iran-US nuclear deal revival efforts will face hurdles

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
National Security ◽  
The United States ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Medical Supplies ◽  
President Elect ◽  
National Security Adviser

Significance US President-elect Joe Biden supports the agreement, from which his predecessor Donald Trump withdrew, and has named as his national security adviser Jake Sullivan, who under former President Barack Obama began the secret outreach that fostered the JCPOA. Impacts Biden will immediately lower the temperature by facilitating trade in medical supplies to fight COVID-19. An end to the ‘Muslim ban’ will likely mean Iranian citizens can again travel to the United States, pandemic permitting. Iran may halt or slow steps that violate JCPOA limits, such as the installation of advanced centrifuges.

Mulled US nuclear posture shift would lack credibility

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Nuclear Weapons ◽  
Arms Control ◽  
The United States ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Nuclear Arsenal ◽  
The Us ◽  
Nuclear Attack ◽  
And Shifts

Subject Potential US adoption of a 'no first use' nuclear weapons policy. Significance The administration of US President Barack Obama is reportedly considering the adoption of a 'no first use' nuclear weapons posture in his final months in office. A no first use policy would involve the United States declaring that it would only use its nuclear arsenal in response to a nuclear attack, never as a preliminary move in escalating tensions. This shift would be a significant departure from Washington's earlier posture, which maintained ambiguity as to whether nuclear weapons would be used in a hypothetical conventional attack on the United States or its allies. Impacts Arsenal upgrades and shifts in doctrine favouring tactical nuclear weapons would counteract the benefits of a restrained declaratory policy. Technological breakthroughs with hypersonic missiles are likely to undermine existing legal and diplomatic arms control arrangements. Obama may take up the pursuit of nuclear arms reductions with an ex-president's public profile. Eastern NATO allies will react strongly against any hint that their security does not fall under the US nuclear umbrella.

WikiLeaks disclosures will intensify US anti-leak push

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
National Security ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Privacy Concerns ◽  
Technology Firms ◽  
Internet Regulation ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Government ◽  
The Eu

Significance Microsoft said WikiLeaks had been in contact with them about vulnerabilities disclosed when WikiLeaks published files on March 7, the first in a series called ‘Vault 7’. This leak has been rebuked by US national security officials, but further revelations could be forthcoming. Impacts Customers may be reluctant to buy products that have previously been associated with CIA spy tools and listening devices. The revelations will damage an already strained relationship between the US government and technology firms. Privacy concerns will hinder internet regulation liberalisation between the United States and other countries, particularly in the EU.

Extended tariffs may push a US-China deal beyond 2020

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
National Security ◽  
The United States ◽  
Domestic Activity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
China Trade ◽  
The Us ◽  
Trade Dynamics ◽  
Better Than ◽  
The Eu

Subject US-China trade policy ahead. Significance Starting on August 1, the United States and China have this month imposed more import tariffs on each other’s products following the collapse of the Shanghai round of US-China trade talks. The quick reaction by both indicates that neither sees much prospect of reaching a deal. To protect domestic activity and maintain momentum for further talks, both could apply a lower tariff to products they cannot buy from elsewhere. For example, rare earths, which the United States depends on China for, remain exempt from tariffs. Impacts Worries about the overreliance on consumer spending and uncertainty over investment ahead suggest that the US downturn could accelerate. Despite suffering slower growth and employment worries, China will not simply agree a deal on the US administration’s terms. Chinese negotiators understand the US-China trade dynamics better than the US administration and will use this to their advantage. The US administration can impose 25% tariffs on its global imports of cars and parts, citing national security; this would hit the EU hard.

Prospects for US foreign policy to end-2016

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
National Security ◽  
The United States ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
Political Support ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Mass Shooting

Subject Prospects for US foreign policy to end-2016. Significance The June 12 mass shooting in Orlando will sharpen US partisan divisions ahead of November's elections, making it more challenging for President Barack Obama to focus on international developments in his final months in office. Before his successor is inaugurated in January 2017, Obama will seek to build political support in Washington for his distinctive view of the United States' global role, convey steady stewardship of US national security ahead of the election, preserve the foreign policy achievements of his presidency and manage any regional challenges.

Rethinking U.S. National Security after Covid19

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Linda J. Bilmes
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
National Security ◽  
The United States ◽  
Emerging Diseases ◽  
Defense Spending ◽  
Federal Spending ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Military

AbstractThe United States has traditionally defined national security in the context of military threats and addressed them through military spending. This article considers whether the United States will rethink this mindset following the disruption of the Covid19 pandemic, during which a non-military actor has inflicted widespread harm. The author argues that the US will not redefine national security explicitly due to the importance of the military in the US economy and the bipartisan trend toward growing the military budget since 2001. However, the pandemic has opened the floodgates with respect to federal spending. This shift will enable the next administration to allocate greater resources to non-military threats such as climate change and emerging diseases, even as it continues to increase defense spending to address traditionally defined military threats such as hypersonics and cyberterrorism.

Washington will rethink its foreign chip strategy

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Supply Chain ◽  
The United States ◽  
Export Controls ◽  
Political Pressure ◽  
Technical Standards ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Technology Competition ◽  
Business In China

Significance Follow-on action from Washington and responses from foreign actors will shape the US government’s adversarial policy towards China in semiconductors and other strategic technologies. Impacts The Biden administration will likely conclude that broad-based diversion of the semiconductor supply chain away from China is not feasible. The United States will rely on export controls and political pressure to prevent diffusion to China of cutting-edge chip technologies. The United States will focus on persuading foreign semiconductor leaders to help develop US capabilities, thereby staying ahead of China. Washington will focus on less direct approaches to strategic technology competition with China, notably technical standards-setting. Industry leaders in the semiconductor supply chain worldwide will continue expanding business in China in less politically sensitive areas.

Online disinformation is greater risk for older users

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Senior Citizens ◽  
Rapid Evolution ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
News Source ◽  
The Us ◽  
Older Users ◽  
Special Concern

Significance The growing numbers of senior citizens in the United States, their rapidly increasing adoption of social media and their high levels of voter turnout make their vulnerability to disinformation a matter of special concern. Other advanced democracies likely mirror the US experience. Impacts Older US adults' use of television as their primary news source may provide some bulwark against being targeted by disinformation online. The rapid evolution of news distribution technologies will challenge older adults used to a more slowly changing media landscape. Further research is necessary to determine the causes of age-based vulnerability and levels of resilience.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document