Canada-China trade ties face domestic opposition

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Negotiations ◽  
Content Type ◽  
China Trade ◽  
Agricultural Industries ◽  
High Level

Subject Prospects for a Canada-China trade agreement. Significance Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has expressed interest in negotiating a trade agreement with China, and will lead a high-level delegation to China this March to secure opportunities for Canadian business. Increased trade with China could prove a significant boost to sectors of Canada's flagging commodities-driven economy, such as agri-business, finance and aerospace, but the domestic politics of trade in Canada remain controversial. Impacts Canada's oil, lumber and agricultural industries will lobby hard for any potential agreement. Political fallout surrounding the Energy East pipeline may hinder the Trudeau government's ability to meet Chinese preconditions elsewhere. Canadian criticism of China's human rights record and espionage activities may present complications if trade negotiations are undertaken.

Post-US-midterm dynamic could ease China trade spat

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Intellectual Property ◽  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Immediate Release ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Telephone Conversation ◽  
China Trade ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
Trade War ◽  
High Level

Significance This follows high-level China-US trade talks restarting after a November 1 Trump-Xi telephone conversation, November 6’s US midterm elections that delivered a Democrat-majority House of Representatives from January 2019 and US-China trade-related frictions at the APEC Summit (November 15-17) preventing a joint communique’s immediate release. These frictions have sparked fears of a US-China ‘trade war’, or worse, and what scenarios and drivers might see this avoided. Impacts China may eye further trade renegotiations with the next US president, from 2021 or 2025. Democrats would want any trade deal to include human rights and environmental protections; Beijing would certainly resist the former. China might offer intellectual property concessions on paper, since there are multiple ways to circumvent such restrictions. Trump could sell a ‘partial’ deal politically, but he may calculate that ‘China-the-adversary’ rhetoric will win more 2020 votes.

Israeli coalition government will stay strong

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Coalition Government ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
State Budget ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Aid ◽  
Us Military ◽  
Fourth Term ◽  
Social Affairs

Subject Israeli domestic politics update. Significance Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's cabinet unanimously approved a bi-annual state budget for 2017 and 2018 on August 12. While the budget reflects a policy of greater spending on social affairs and lower taxes, its main importance is political. Once approved by the Knesset in November, the budget will pave the way for Netanyahu to remain prime minister until the next elections, at present scheduled for early 2019. Impacts In his fourth term, with more than ten years as prime minister, Netanyahu faces no major threats to his leadership. No progress is expected in the Israeli-Palestinian process in the short-to-medium term. Israel will seek to secure a ten-year deal on US military aid before end-2016.

Prospects for Japan in 2016

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
House Election

Subject Prospects for Japan in 2016. Significance The upper house election due in July will be the focus of domestic politics in the first half of 2016. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has announced 'three new arrows' of Abenomics, but the economy has flipped back into recession.

Canada will struggle to diversify trade

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
The United States ◽  
Government Procurement ◽  
National Interests ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic News ◽  
American Trade

Significance US efforts to renegotiate NAFTA were already tense, but this round of talks comes after Canada filed a wide-ranging complaint at the WTO over US trade practices. Meanwhile, the implementation of the Canada-EU Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) and the revival of an eleven-member version of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) without the United States could bring some good economic news to Canada. However, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals have been rebuffed in their efforts to begin free trade agreement (FTA) talks with China. Impacts Canada’s WTO case could make Trump more likely to leave NAFTA after this negotiation round. Resumed WTO tariffs in North American trade may see higher lumber, minerals, oil and other commodities prices. Bureaucratic interventions defending national interests in Canadian and EU government procurement will blunt CETA’s potential.

Support for Scottish independence is growing stronger

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Economic Impacts ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Uk Government ◽  
Scottish Independence ◽  
The Uk ◽  
First Time ◽  
The Eu ◽  
Sustained Increase

Significance For the first time, there is a sustained increase in support for Scottish independence. The main reasons include dislike of UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his cabinet north of the border, the UK government’s pursuit of a ‘hard’ Brexit and questions about its response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Impacts Soaring Scottish unemployment when the UK furlough schemes end would undermine London’s claim to be protecting Scottish jobs. Rising support for Scottish independence could prompt the UK government to seek a closer trade agreement with the EU. The UK government will be unable to conceal the economic impacts of Brexit under the economic fallout of COVID-19. A Scottish vote for independence would put huge pressure on the UK government to resign and call early elections.

Pakistan military will repel threats to its authority

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Supreme Court ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Supreme Court ◽  
Senior Officers ◽  
The Military

Subject The Pakistan military's influence on domestic politics. Significance Parliament last month passed legislation extending the tenure of the current chief of army staff, General Qamar Javed Bajwa, for another three years. This followed a November ruling by the Supreme Court striking down an extension granted by Prime Minister Imran Khan's government. While Pakistan struggles to ease its economic woes and secure diplomatic support for its position on Kashmir, over which it disputes sovereignty with India, the politically powerful military is orchestrating efforts to mediate peace in Afghanistan and consolidate relations with key partners. Impacts The military will ensure that Khan remains in power, as it regards him as a suitably acquiescent prime minister. Most political parties will toe the military's line. Bajwa's likely successor as army chief, Faiz Hameed, may lack the charisma to command the same loyalty from senior officers.

Malaysia will be main test for Singapore’s leaders

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Secretary General ◽  
General Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Finance Minister ◽  
China Trade ◽  
Trade War

Subject Singapore's political challenges. Significance The ruling People’s Action Party (PAP) has begun what will be a lengthy leadership handover from Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong to Heng Swee Keat, currently finance minister and the PAP’s first assistant secretary-general. Speculation is mounting that Lee could bring forward the general election due by January 2021. In recent months, Singapore’s relations with Malaysia have soured. Impacts Turbulent relations with Malaysia will have no impact on the PAP’s leadership handover. Malaysia-Singapore ministerial ties will mitigate the effects of Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad’s erratic foreign policy. Judicial verdicts against legislators from the opposition Workers’ Party (WP) could worsen the WP’s already weak position in parliament. A prolonged US-China trade war would lead to a further decline in exports to China from Singapore.

The Political Dynamics of Agricultural Liberalisation in the US-Chile Free Trade Agreement

2008 ◽  
Vol 40 (2) ◽  
pp. 225-249 ◽  
Author(s):  
JESSICA LEIGHT
Keyword(s):  
Free Trade ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Liberalisation ◽  
Trade Negotiations ◽  
Economic Costs ◽  
Price Supports ◽  
The Us

AbstractThe 2003 US-Chile free trade agreement, regarded by many as consistent with Chile's long-held trade liberalisation strategy, nonetheless engendered a surprisingly vigorous debate focused on the proposed elimination of the bandas de precio protecting traditional agricultural crops. Opposition to the agreement, mounted by the conservative Alianza por Chile, offers an intriguing political case study that suggests that populist posturing surrounding free trade agreements may persist long after a trade liberalisation strategy has become well-established. This article argues that agricultural liberalisation will be a significant challenge for Chile's governing coalition if it wishes to pursue trade negotiations while seeking to avoid costly political battles at home over the economic costs of abandoning price supports and the challenges of ‘reconverting’ to an export-oriented sector. Even given the strong elite consensus around trade liberalisation in Chile, the interconnections between sectoral interest groups, domestic politics and trade negotiations remain relevant, and deserving of analytical attention.

Fiji will play outsized role in climate diplomacy

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Main Concern ◽  
Pacific Island ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regional Powers ◽  
Island States ◽  
Regional Leadership ◽  
Multilateral Diplomacy

Subject Fijian diplomacy. Significance Fiji’s multilateral diplomacy will receive a boost in 2017 by holding two influential positions as president of the UN General Assembly, and president of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)’s COP23 session in November -- the first time a Pacific island state has held either role. Its ‘Look North’ policy continues to seek deeper cooperation with China, Indonesia and Russia at the expense of traditional regional powers Australia and New Zealand. Impacts Fiji’s diplomatic roles in 2017 provide China -- a longstanding ally and its largest aid donor -- with greater influence in UN processes. Seeking further concessions from Australia and New Zealand, Fiji will hold out on the long-delayed PACER Plus regional trade agreement. Domestic politics remain the government’s main concern, but Fiji continues to claim regional leadership among the Pacific island states.

TPP will help reshape Japan's industrial structure

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Healthcare Costs ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Service Sector ◽  
Industrial Structure ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Service Sectors ◽  
Imported Food ◽  
Gain Access

Subject Japan and the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Significance Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's government plans to pass legislation early this year to allow ratification of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) free-trade agreement. Impacts Japan's well-developed retail and other service sectors will gain access to promising new markets in Vietnam and Malaysia. Bringing Thailand and Indonesia into the TPP may prove easier than relocating Japanese auto production to TPP countries. The TPP's pharmaceuticals provisions could help contain Japan's sky-rocketing healthcare costs. Cheaper imported food will benefit Japan's catering, retailing, hospitality and other service-sector industries. Concessions won from Japan's negotiating partners will sweeten the pill for many farmers, but also slow down agricultural reforms.

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