Prospects for Japan in 2016

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
House Election

Subject Prospects for Japan in 2016. Significance The upper house election due in July will be the focus of domestic politics in the first half of 2016. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has announced 'three new arrows' of Abenomics, but the economy has flipped back into recession.

Japan’s opposition will regroup in 2020

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Lower House ◽  
House Election ◽  
Step Down ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject The outlook for politics in Japan in 2020. Significance Domestic politics in 2020 will focus on four issues: reform of the country’s constitution, the competition to succeed Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, a possible snap lower house election and potential unification of the centre-left opposition parties ahead of it. Impacts Debates over constitution reform will likely result in a simple proposal to make Japan’s armed forces unambiguously constitutional. Abe’s promise to revise the constitution before the Tokyo Olympics next summer will be hard, if not impossible, to achieve. An expenses scandal currently dominating the headlines will embarrass Abe but is not a serious threat to him. Abe, now Japan’s longest-serving prime minister ever, is likely to step down in 2021.

Israeli coalition government will stay strong

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Coalition Government ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
State Budget ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Aid ◽  
Us Military ◽  
Fourth Term ◽  
Social Affairs

Subject Israeli domestic politics update. Significance Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's cabinet unanimously approved a bi-annual state budget for 2017 and 2018 on August 12. While the budget reflects a policy of greater spending on social affairs and lower taxes, its main importance is political. Once approved by the Knesset in November, the budget will pave the way for Netanyahu to remain prime minister until the next elections, at present scheduled for early 2019. Impacts In his fourth term, with more than ten years as prime minister, Netanyahu faces no major threats to his leadership. No progress is expected in the Israeli-Palestinian process in the short-to-medium term. Israel will seek to secure a ten-year deal on US military aid before end-2016.

Pakistan military will repel threats to its authority

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Supreme Court ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Supreme Court ◽  
Senior Officers ◽  
The Military

Subject The Pakistan military's influence on domestic politics. Significance Parliament last month passed legislation extending the tenure of the current chief of army staff, General Qamar Javed Bajwa, for another three years. This followed a November ruling by the Supreme Court striking down an extension granted by Prime Minister Imran Khan's government. While Pakistan struggles to ease its economic woes and secure diplomatic support for its position on Kashmir, over which it disputes sovereignty with India, the politically powerful military is orchestrating efforts to mediate peace in Afghanistan and consolidate relations with key partners. Impacts The military will ensure that Khan remains in power, as it regards him as a suitably acquiescent prime minister. Most political parties will toe the military's line. Bajwa's likely successor as army chief, Faiz Hameed, may lack the charisma to command the same loyalty from senior officers.

Canada-China trade ties face domestic opposition

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Negotiations ◽  
Content Type ◽  
China Trade ◽  
Agricultural Industries ◽  
High Level

Subject Prospects for a Canada-China trade agreement. Significance Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has expressed interest in negotiating a trade agreement with China, and will lead a high-level delegation to China this March to secure opportunities for Canadian business. Increased trade with China could prove a significant boost to sectors of Canada's flagging commodities-driven economy, such as agri-business, finance and aerospace, but the domestic politics of trade in Canada remain controversial. Impacts Canada's oil, lumber and agricultural industries will lobby hard for any potential agreement. Political fallout surrounding the Energy East pipeline may hinder the Trudeau government's ability to meet Chinese preconditions elsewhere. Canadian criticism of China's human rights record and espionage activities may present complications if trade negotiations are undertaken.

Mongolia’s success relies heavily on China

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
International Relations ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Full Membership ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
Mining Projects ◽  
Shanghai Cooperation Organisation ◽  
Ecology And Economy

Significance However, it does not resolve the state of limbo in which Mongolia’s domestic politics, international relations and economic development has remained for the past several years. Prime Minister U Khurelsukh will consolidate his dominance of the MPP, largely continuing past policies. Impacts Legal uncertainties and corruption inquiries surrounding Oyu Tolgoi and other mining projects will negatively affect foreign investment. There will be Chinese pressure, and serious Mongolian consideration, of full membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. Factional conflicts within the main opposition party may undermine Battulga’s hope for re-election as president next year. Climate change will put increasing pressure on Mongolia’s ecology and economy.

Low growth may undermine Abe's policy promises

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Public Support ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
House Election ◽  
Strategic Goals ◽  
The Government ◽  
To Come

Subject The Abe government's economic policies. Significance The passage of unpopular defence legislation overshadowed the Abe government for most of 2015 and caused its popularity to sink to record lows. Now, ahead of an upper house election in July this year, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has sought to return attention to economic policy -- the source of his government's original popularity. His 'three new arrows' of Abenomics indicate a reconsideration of the government's economic policy priorities. Impacts The government will increasingly focus on specific demography-related problems, setting numerical targets to make achievements visible. Raising fertility and preventing depopulation will emerge as the major strategic goals for any Japanese cabinet for decades to come. Immigration on a large enough scale to address demographic pressures has negligible public support and is not seriously considered.

TPP will unsettle East Asia's regional relations

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Trade Bloc ◽  
Japanese Prime Minister

Significance The agreement, once ratified, will create a new trade bloc that encompasses 36% of global GDP. Impacts US congressional politics could quickly undo years of diplomatic work. Malaysian domestic politics could be another stumbling block. South Korea may be the next economy to join; Taiwan's entry will be much slower. The political benefits will probably outweigh the costs for Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

Trump win may benefit China in ASEAN and Cambodia

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Relations ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Development Aid ◽  
Xi Jinping ◽  
Phnom Penh ◽  
Content Type ◽  
People's Party ◽  
President Elect ◽  
Operating Constraints

Subject Cambodian politics and foreign relations, including Beijing and Washington. Significance Following up on his pre-election enthusiasm for the Republican candidate, Prime Minister Hun Sen congratulated US President-elect Donald Trump on his election win on November 9. In the wake of the October 13-14 visit of China's President Xi Jinping to Cambodia, this is adding to media speculation about what Trump's policy towards South-east Asia might be, and how it might affect Cambodian domestic politics and the dynamics of the Beijing-Phnom Penh relationship. Impacts Western calls are unlikely to be the catalyst for improvements in Cambodian human rights and democracy. The Cambodian People's Party will leverage Chinese development aid to try to gain electoral advantage. Cambodia's opposition could suffer electorally because of operating constraints.

Canada-US ties will see fewer irritants under Biden

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Oil Industry ◽  
The United States ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Federal Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Un Peacekeeping ◽  
Keystone Xl ◽  
Keystone Xl Pipeline

Significance Canada’s Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is preparing to welcome a more predictable and stable partner in Biden than outgoing Republican President Donald Trump. However, Biden is also expected quickly to cancel the Keystone XL pipeline, cutting another lifeline to Canada’s oil industry and creating some strain in Canada-US ties. Impacts Improved Canada-US ties will persist even if Trudeau loses the next federal election to Conservative Erin O’Toole. Canada will re-engage militarily with UN peacekeeping and NATO deployments. Trudeau will encourage Biden to end US prosecution of Meng Wanzhou, allowing Canada to release her; Biden may agree. Canada’s border with the United States will open in stages as COVID-19 recedes. Ottawa will push Biden to end ‘Buy American’ procurement policies, with little success.

Neither side is ready to step back in Georgian crisis

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
National Movement ◽  
Election Victory ◽  
Political Turmoil

Significance The authorities went ahead with the arrest of Nika Melia, leader of the opposition United National Movement (UNM), on February 23 even after the prime minister resigned in protest. Georgian Dream's actions have caused concern in Western capitals that approved its election victory when the opposition cried foul. Impacts The crisis is a setback for the government's stated plan to apply for EU membership in 2024. There is growing talk in the United States about individual sanctions targeting Ivanishvili and his associates. Political turmoil will harm hopes of foreign direct investment and the imminent Anaklia port tender.

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