South Sudan’s humanitarian crisis will deepen

Significance Since South Sudan’s conflict entered its most recent phase in July, humanitarian needs have risen. Donors and relief agencies will prepare for another year of a large-scale response, although the plight of the South Sudanese will compete with multiple protracted emergencies for attention and resources. Impacts Refugee-hosting states may leverage refugees to extract funds or political concessions from the international community. Protracted displacement may mean that some people never return to their former homes. The new US administration will continue humanitarian assistance despite potential disengagement from South Sudan.

Significance Grandi is the latest high-profile figure to urge the government to reconsider its position. Should Dadaab close, over 340,000 refugees would in total be forced from Kenya, creating a potential humanitarian crisis with security implications. Impacts Kenya may leverage the refugees to secure greater financial and political assistance from the international community. The West's struggle to manage migration crises elsewhere will pressure donors to prevent another large-scale displacement. The UN may increase the rate of assisted returns of Somalis if conditions in Somalia improve. Kenya would remain susceptible to future al-Shabaab attacks even if Dadaab closes.


Author(s):  
John Max Chinyanganya ◽  
Johns Mhlanga

The South Sudan conflict which started in December 2013 is now entering its second year with continental and international implications far beyond comprehension in terms of human tragedy in one of the world’s newest nations. Continued fi ghting between the government troops and the rebel forces has displaced more than 1 000 000 and killed over 10 0000 people while a humanitarian crisis threatens many more South Sudanese and their neighbouring states. The war risks tearing the country apart as well as creating a potential humanitarian crisis of epic proportions on neighbouring states. Hence, this article examines the continental and international implications of the current South Sudanese confl ict which has roped in the African Union spearheaded by the Inter-Governmental Organization and the United Nations Mission in South Sudan. It argues that the heart of this post-independence conflict in South Sudan is the personal rivalry between President Salva Kiir and his former Vice President Riek Machar. This study attempts to provide a detailed outline of the South Sudanese civil confl ict by conducting an in-depth investigation of secondary data as well as interviews with military peacekeepers imbued with experience on the ground in South Sudan. To address the conflict, this paper suggests that the international community and the country’s leadership need to focus on resolving this personality-driven rivalry to pave way for sustainable peace in the country  


Significance In practice, politics remains mired in factional corruption, and the economy is stagnant. Poverty and food insecurity levels are alarmingly high, and other human development indicators are extremely poor. Impacts South Sudan will attract little large-scale investment, domestic or foreign. Depreciation and inflation rates will be volatile. International aid will remain overwhelmingly focused on humanitarian assistance.


2018 ◽  
pp. 91-110
Author(s):  
Tatiana Kochanova

Тhe subject of this study is the young Republic of South Sudan (RSS), the “young” – both in terms of the age of an independent state, and in terms of its demographic potential. RSS, as a member of the United Nations and as a sovereign state, appeared on the world map in 2011, but, possessing super-rich natural resources, has not yet gained sustainable development, moreover, it fell into a deep military-political crisis. Like most countries of the African continent, South Sudan had real demographic capacity, but the authorities were unable to extract any “demographic dividends” from the truly main national resource for the development of the country’s economy, moreover, the number of refugees of young working age is constantly growing. Through the example of South Sudan, which so hard achieved separation of the South from the North and failed to take advantage of the conquered democratic values, the article explores the understudied problem of modification of the consciousness of the younger generation, dictated both by the specifics of the deep historical and cultural tradition of the South Sudanese nationalities and by new trends in global evolutionary processes. Studying the stories from the lives of multi-member families affected during the military-political conflict in the RSS, the author, based on the facts, strongly criticizes the ineffective, even often vicious, youth policy of the South Sudanese government. On the other hand, analyzing the origins, nature, basic traditional moral and sociocultural aspects of child employment in the region, the researcher finds a reasoned explanation of the cause for such a policy of universal child mobilization and tries to define this phenomenon that has not been studied in the scientific literature before. Summarizing the study of the causes of a humanitarian catastrophe in the RSS, the author, in addition to generally accepted factors that influenced the current situation (such as: the intervention of major world financial players in the affairs of a sovereign state, national discord, the struggle for power and resources), also highlights the subjective and not always correct work of the world information agencies and other mass media and, of course, the incompetent state policy of the leadership of the RSS in the Youth Field. Relying on the positive events of the past few months to resolve the conflict in the RSS, the author is still trying to predict in the foreseeable future the time for growth and development of the Republic of South Sudan, with the proviso that it can happen only in case of the inclusion of restraining leverage and expansion of the range of priorities of the main national resource – the youth.


Subject Uganda's regional policy. Significance Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni on September 16 attended a series of meetings in Khartoum with incoming South Sudanese First Vice-President Riek Machar. Machar's spokesperson said that the main outcome was Uganda's assurance that it will withdraw its military (UPDF) from South Sudan as per the recent South Sudan peace agreement. The development reflects a wider context in which Uganda's regional clout is under strain. Impacts Military intervention in Somalia will exacerbate that country's spillover effects for insecurity in the wider region. The UPDF's role in AMISOM heightens Uganda's vulnerability to al-Shabaab attacks. However, Uganda will manage these better than Kenya, partly due to its long-term character as a security state.


Subject Regional infrastructure ambitions. Significance Plans for large-scale regional infrastructure projects have become vehicles for economic cooperation in East Africa over the past several years. However, behind the rhetoric of regional solidarity, such ventures have become a critical arena for power rivalries to play out. Impacts Infrastructure plans are exacerbating local conflicts in northern Kenya and driving new dynamics. Land grabbing is a trend across areas where new infrastructure is meant to be, tying political and business elites to original plans. Despite its ambitions to reduce reliance on Khartoum, South Sudan is not going to be a secure infrastructure partner for some time.


Significance Since it began in March 2015, the many-sided conflict has become internationalised, following threats to the vital shipping artery in the Bab al-Mandab strait, through which trade worth 700 billion dollars per year passes between Europe and Asia. Previous ceasefires have not held. There is a looming humanitarian crisis. Unpaid public-sector workers are unable to buy food, boosting malnutrition rates. Impacts US President-elect Donald Trump is unlikely to take much interest in the Yemen conflict, leaving mediation to the UN and regional actors. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) will confront al-Qaida in the south of the country, but cannot extinguish its tribal support base. Hadi's vice-president, Ali Mohsen, an old enemy of the Huthis and former ally of Saleh, will be an important power broker.


Significance South Sudan is facing severe conflict and insecurity, a prolonged political crisis, and dire economic conditions. A peace agreement signed in August 2015 is falling apart, and fighting and violence during the past year has caused the number of South Sudanese refugees in Uganda to rise to 900,000 -- with a further 375,000 in Sudan and 287,000 in Ethiopia. Earlier this year, aid agencies declared a famine situation in several counties, and appealed for more humanitarian aid and improved access. Impacts Oil output is likely to remain at, or near, 130,000-160,000 barrels per day. Juba’s fiscal situation will remain precarious, with the government unable to secure loans from donors. Unrest and limited strikes over salary arrears could increase.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document