The South Sudanese government may oppose a new force

Headline SOUTH SUDAN: Juba may yet oppose new force

Significance Since South Sudan’s conflict entered its most recent phase in July, humanitarian needs have risen. Donors and relief agencies will prepare for another year of a large-scale response, although the plight of the South Sudanese will compete with multiple protracted emergencies for attention and resources. Impacts Refugee-hosting states may leverage refugees to extract funds or political concessions from the international community. Protracted displacement may mean that some people never return to their former homes. The new US administration will continue humanitarian assistance despite potential disengagement from South Sudan.


2018 ◽  
pp. 91-110
Author(s):  
Tatiana Kochanova

Тhe subject of this study is the young Republic of South Sudan (RSS), the “young” – both in terms of the age of an independent state, and in terms of its demographic potential. RSS, as a member of the United Nations and as a sovereign state, appeared on the world map in 2011, but, possessing super-rich natural resources, has not yet gained sustainable development, moreover, it fell into a deep military-political crisis. Like most countries of the African continent, South Sudan had real demographic capacity, but the authorities were unable to extract any “demographic dividends” from the truly main national resource for the development of the country’s economy, moreover, the number of refugees of young working age is constantly growing. Through the example of South Sudan, which so hard achieved separation of the South from the North and failed to take advantage of the conquered democratic values, the article explores the understudied problem of modification of the consciousness of the younger generation, dictated both by the specifics of the deep historical and cultural tradition of the South Sudanese nationalities and by new trends in global evolutionary processes. Studying the stories from the lives of multi-member families affected during the military-political conflict in the RSS, the author, based on the facts, strongly criticizes the ineffective, even often vicious, youth policy of the South Sudanese government. On the other hand, analyzing the origins, nature, basic traditional moral and sociocultural aspects of child employment in the region, the researcher finds a reasoned explanation of the cause for such a policy of universal child mobilization and tries to define this phenomenon that has not been studied in the scientific literature before. Summarizing the study of the causes of a humanitarian catastrophe in the RSS, the author, in addition to generally accepted factors that influenced the current situation (such as: the intervention of major world financial players in the affairs of a sovereign state, national discord, the struggle for power and resources), also highlights the subjective and not always correct work of the world information agencies and other mass media and, of course, the incompetent state policy of the leadership of the RSS in the Youth Field. Relying on the positive events of the past few months to resolve the conflict in the RSS, the author is still trying to predict in the foreseeable future the time for growth and development of the Republic of South Sudan, with the proviso that it can happen only in case of the inclusion of restraining leverage and expansion of the range of priorities of the main national resource – the youth.


Subject Uganda's regional policy. Significance Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni on September 16 attended a series of meetings in Khartoum with incoming South Sudanese First Vice-President Riek Machar. Machar's spokesperson said that the main outcome was Uganda's assurance that it will withdraw its military (UPDF) from South Sudan as per the recent South Sudan peace agreement. The development reflects a wider context in which Uganda's regional clout is under strain. Impacts Military intervention in Somalia will exacerbate that country's spillover effects for insecurity in the wider region. The UPDF's role in AMISOM heightens Uganda's vulnerability to al-Shabaab attacks. However, Uganda will manage these better than Kenya, partly due to its long-term character as a security state.


Significance South Sudan is facing severe conflict and insecurity, a prolonged political crisis, and dire economic conditions. A peace agreement signed in August 2015 is falling apart, and fighting and violence during the past year has caused the number of South Sudanese refugees in Uganda to rise to 900,000 -- with a further 375,000 in Sudan and 287,000 in Ethiopia. Earlier this year, aid agencies declared a famine situation in several counties, and appealed for more humanitarian aid and improved access. Impacts Oil output is likely to remain at, or near, 130,000-160,000 barrels per day. Juba’s fiscal situation will remain precarious, with the government unable to secure loans from donors. Unrest and limited strikes over salary arrears could increase.


Subject Economic outlook for Sudan and South Sudan. Significance Earlier this month, Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir ordered the border with South Sudan to be reopened. It was formally closed in 2011, though enforcement has eased since 2012 due to deepening economic cooperation, formalised in several agreements stipulating the financial terms for exporting South Sudanese oil through Sudan's pipelines to Port Sudan. Impacts Russian opposition will probably scupper other UN Security Council proposals to impose an arms embargo on South Sudan. Growing -- albeit small -- numbers of Syrian refugees will likely settle in Khartoum, facilitated by their visa-free access to Sudan. Uganda and South Sudan will proceed on finalising demarcation of their common, disputed border, but localised tensions could persist.


Subject Challenges to Ethiopia's system of ethnic federalism. Significance Ethiopia’s Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples’ Region (SNNPR) was until recently considered a region of relative peace and tolerance. However, recent inter-ethnic conflict has thrown it into turmoil. Moreover, new demands for statehood being voiced by ethnic groups could have far-reaching consequences for both the region and the nation. Impacts Statehood bids could lead to races for resources and subsequent conflicts. Attempts to resolve federal problems at a national level could frustrate those who are content with the current system. Instability in the south could cross international borders and worsen people-to-people relations with Kenya and South Sudan.


Subject Humanitarian financing reform in East Africa. Significance Rising refugee numbers and persistent underfunding led the World Food Programme (WFP) in October to cut food rations to South Sudanese refugees in Kenya and Uganda. This is consistent with a global picture of a humanitarian system struggling with the response to major emergencies like the war in Syria or the ‘four famines’ of 2017 (threatening South Sudan, Somalia, Yemen and Nigeria). Over a year after the World Humanitarian Summit promised new approaches to funding, there is little sign that the strain these protracted crises place on the humanitarian system is being alleviated. Impacts South Sudan refugee flows will add to host nation pressures, threatening Uganda and Ethiopia’s exemplary approaches. Shrinking budgets and donors linking aid to national interest may force aid agencies to seek new revenue sources. Expanded cash programmes will disrupt current aid models, as funds go directly to recipients, bypassing large aid providers.


Significance On July 2, health officials also confirmed a new case in Ariwara, Ituri Province, a major cross-border trading centre some 35 kilometres from Arua, Uganda, and 70 kilometres from the South Sudan border. Though both cases are for now isolated, they underscore the rising risk that the DRC’s worsening Ebola crisis could soon affect its neighbours. Impacts Declaration of a public health emergency of international concern would create a risk of countries imposing trade or travel restrictions. Even now, the epidemic may severely impact regional tourism; Rwanda is particularly vulnerable, as tourism accounts for around 13% of GDP. Countries further afield also face risks but may focus less attention on preparedness.


Significance The agreement has formally held, but implementation is well behind schedule and shows no sign of accelerating. Moreover, there still appears to be little prospect that the agreement will resolve the deeper political ills that have kept South Sudan embroiled in conflict for most of its history. Impacts Rhetorical commitments to institutional reform will translate into changes that are symbolic at best. Escalating armed conflict between the army and other armed groups is still a risk. The economy will remain stagnant.


2012 ◽  
Vol 47 (2-3) ◽  
pp. 5-31 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mareike Schomerus ◽  
Kristof Titeca

Since Sudan's Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) was signed, its border with Uganda has become a hub of activity. Contrasting developments on the Ugandan side of the border with those on the South Sudanese side, the paper draws on empirical fieldwork to argue that the CPA has created new centres of power in the margins of both states. However, in day-today dealings on either side of the border, South Sudanese military actors have become dominant. In the particular case of Arua and the South Sudan-Uganda border, past wartime authority structures determine access to opportunities in a tightly regulated, inconclusive peace. This means that small-scale Ugandan traders – although vital to South Sudan – have become more vulnerable to South Sudan's assertions of state authority. The experience of Ugandan traders calls into question the broad consensus that trade across the border is always beneficial for peace-building The paper concludes that trade is not unconditionally helpful to the establishment of a peaceful environment for everyone.


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