Equatorial Guinea’s fiscal woes are likely to mount

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Banking System ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Equatorial Guinea ◽  
New Production ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Production Sharing ◽  
Capital Spending ◽  
Public Corruption ◽  
Government Deficit ◽  
The Government

Subject Equatorial Guinea fiscal challenges Significance Equatorial Guinea is experiencing a persistent economic crisis. The economy is almost wholly dependent on hydrocarbons; low oil prices have led to significant contractions in economic growth over the past two years. In response, President Teodoro Obiang's government has sharply reduced capital spending. The president also faces significant challenges abroad with his son, Vice-President Teodorin Obiang, the target of a public corruption investigation in French courts. Impacts The government will move quickly to sign and ratify new production-sharing contracts after the current licensing round concludes. Dramatic cuts in public spending will increase unemployment and exacerbate popular unrest. Obiang could position another son -- Minister of Mines, Industry and Energy Gabriel Mbaga Obiang Lima -- as his successor. Government deficit increases will further strain the country's banking system.

scholarly journals Influence of economic freedom and its subcomponents on risk-taking behavior

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 335-356 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rafik Harkati ◽  
Syed Musa Alhabshi ◽  
Salina Kassim
Keyword(s):  
Risk Taking ◽  
Economic Freedom ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Islamic Banks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Freedom Index ◽  
Risk Taking Behavior ◽  
The Government ◽  
Conventional Banks

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the influence of economic freedom and six relevant subcomponents of it on the risk-taking behavior of banks in the Malaysian dual banking system. It also aims to make a comparative analysis between Islamic and conventional banks operating in this dual banking sector. Moreover, the study is an effort to enrich the existing literature by presenting empirical evidence on the argument that the risk-taking behavior of the two types of banks is indistinguishable given that they operate in the same regulatory environment. Design/methodology/approach Secondary data of all banks operating in the Malaysian banking sector are collected from FitchConnect database, in addition to the economic freedom index from Foundation Heritage for the period 2011–2017. Generalized least squares technique is employed to estimate the influence of economic freedom and the six relevant subcomponents of it on the risk-taking behavior of banks. Findings The level of economic freedom influenced risk-taking behavior within the banking sector as a whole, conventional and Islamic banking sectors negatively during the study period (2011–2017). Risk-taking behavior of conventional and Islamic banks is similar. However, conventional banks turn to be less influenced by economic freedom level as compared to Islamic banks. Practical implications The government and regulators may benefit from the results by rethinking and setting the best economic freedom index that better serves the stability of the banking system, and lessens banks’ risk-taking inclination. Originality/value To the present time, this paper is thought to be of a significant contribution. Given the argument that Islamic and conventional banks behave in the same way. This is one of the first attempts to address this issue in light of the influence of economic freedom and six subcomponents of it on the risk-taking behavior of banks operating in a dual banking system.

New party could shift Zimbabwe's political balance

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Food Aid ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The World ◽  
Political Patronage ◽  
People First ◽  
The Government ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Political outlook in Zimbabwe. Significance On February 17, former Vice President Joice Mujuru formally launched a new party -- Zimbabwe People First (ZPF) -- to contest the 2018 election. Usually, such announcements are met with scepticism, given the failure of past attempts to unseat President Robert Mugabe's ZANU-PF party. However, unprecedented divisions within the ruling party mean ZPF may pose a real electoral challenge. Impacts The government's wholesale takeover of the Marange diamond fields could provide fresh opportunities for political patronage. New rules imposing taxes on around 40 imported basic foods means that the government could benefit financially from emergency food aid. Several G40 members could benefit from Zhuwao's stricter indigenisation rules, which bans foreign investment in 'protected' sectors. Such regulation, together with the drought and weak commodity prices, means GDP growth could fail to reach the World Bank's 1.5% forecast. Mugabe's lavish birthday celebrations will fuel public anger -- given the current food crisis -- possibly boosting opposition support.

Kuwait's politics will stall economic reforms

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Extended Period ◽  
Economic Reforms ◽  
Small Population ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Plan ◽  
Capital Spending ◽  
The Government ◽  
International Assets

Significance With huge financial reserves, low public debt and a small population, Kuwait is one of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states best equipped to ride out an extended period of low oil prices. However, with the country registering its first budget deficit in 16 years, concerns about Kuwait's long-term fiscal sustainability have become more pressing, and the government has introduced a reform plan aimed at restructuring the economy. Impacts The government will step up capital spending, launching as many projects as possible before the 2017 election. The private sector is likely to face increased financial costs, eg, corporate taxes, higher utilities charges and employment of nationals. Kuwait will become further integrated into the international bond market, and rely more on its international assets as a source of income. Political tensions could rise ahead of the 2017 poll if the government takes more measures to reduce opposition electoral prospects. Kuwait will lag behind other GCC states in its progress on economic reforms.

Angola leader could rescind his 2018 retirement pledge

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Social Protests ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military ◽  
Spending Cuts

Subject Political outlook for Angola. Significance President Jose Eduardo dos Santos, in power since 1979, recently announced that he would relinquish the presidency in 2018. While Dos Santos is believed to favour a transition to one of his own children or to Vice-President Manuel Vicente, neither option will find favour in the ranks of the ruling People's Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) or the wider public. Impacts The military will be immune from major spending cuts given its critical role in ensuring the longevity of the regime. Rising repayment burdens on Chinese loans (estimated to total 25 billion dollars) will further undermine budgetary resources. As social protests rise, the government will respond by clamping down on critics and tightening rules governing civil society groups.

Saudi economic reform will be gradual

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Business Community ◽  
Special Treatment ◽  
Asset Sales ◽  
Royal Family ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Capital Spending ◽  
The Government ◽  
Crown Prince ◽  
Spending Cuts

Significance The government has recently taken some modest steps to rein in the budget deficit, including cuts in energy subsidies, and has promised to improve disclosure of its fiscal performance, but is preparing further measures to put the economy on a sustainable long-term footing. Impacts Subsidy cuts and the prospect of VAT could cause popular resentment because they will affect ordinary citizens more severely than the elite. These measures will widen the income gap and, in the longer run, could increase pressure for more accountable forms of government. Land and other asset sales could generate controversy if businesses associated with the royal family are receiving special treatment. Capital spending cuts will create anger among the business community if projects linked to the deputy crown prince are protected. A prolonged fiscal squeeze could stoke tensions within the royal family and damage the credibility of the deputy crown prince.

Debt crisis will delay Zimbabwe economic recovery

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Debt Financing ◽  
Illegal Immigrants ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Remittance Flows ◽  
Do So

Subject Outlook for Zimbabwe's sovereign debt. Significance Secretary to the Treasury Willard Manungo earlier this month revealed that the government owes its diplomats 10 million dollars in salary arrears. It is the latest development in Zimbabwe's fiscal crunch, worsened by President Robert Mugabe's government's limited access to debt financing. This is forcing it to pursue complex, simultaneous negotiations with multiple creditors. Impacts Limited financing will hurt government plans to import 700,000 tonnes of maize necessary to address drought-induced shortfalls. South Africa's restrictive visa regime and clampdowns on illegal immigrants could begin to hurt remittance flows to Zimbabwe. Former Vice-President Joice Mujuru is unlikely to announce a new party in the short term, but may do so before polls in 2018.

Azerbaijan's stability will trump diversification

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Value Added ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Strategic Objective ◽  
Board Of Governors ◽  
Capital Spending ◽  
Oil And Natural Gas ◽  
The Government ◽  
Remittance Flows

Subject Economic diversification in Azerbaijan. Significance Speaking at the Asian Development Bank's annual board of governors meeting in Baku in early May, President Ilham Aliyev said low world oil prices had led the government to implement across-the-board cost-cutting measures to balance the budget. While Azerbaijan has always sought to reduce its dependence on the energy sector, both oil and natural gas exports will continue to be the backbone of economic growth, he declared. Diversifying the national economy away from hydrocarbons towards higher value-added industries and services remains the government's long-term key priority. However, it faces multiple structural challenges. Impacts Azerbaijan's exposure to the neighbouring Russian market will be below average. However, it will continue to be affected by its economic crisis, particularly in terms of migrant remittance flows. The government's capital spending cuts will have direct negative consequences for the downstream sector, regarded as a strategic objective.

Sendic departure may boost Uruguayan government

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Public Opinion ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Consumer Confidence ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Uruguay's political and economic outlook. Significance Vice-President Raul Sendic, elected in November 2014, resigned on September 9 as he faced legal and political questions relating to corruption allegations. His departure is a stain on the leftist government’s ethical credentials but opens up the possibility of improved coordination between the executive and legislature to expedite plans that are delayed or blocked in Congress. It comes as second-quarter data demonstrate economic growth, although public opinion remains gloomy. Impacts Growth will be insufficient to boost employment or consumer confidence this year. Sendic’s resignation was a setback but may have longer-term positive implications for the government. The FA may nevertheless struggle to retain the presidency in 2019, after 15 years in office.

India’s remedy for bad debt may not bring relief

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Job Creation ◽  
Bank Credit ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reserve Bank ◽  
Bankruptcy Code ◽  
The Government ◽  
Bad Debt ◽  
Reserve Bank Of India

Subject Implementation of India's new Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code. Significance Shrinking bank credit is hindering India’s ability to finance spending. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is relying on the recently instituted Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) as the principal instrument to address the problem of stressed assets in the banking system. Impacts The government may accelerate plans to merge stronger and weaker PSBs. Indian corporates may increase their issue of bonds denominated in domestic currency. Prime Minister Narendra Modi will emphasise job creation rather than investment until the next election.

Malawi’s Mutharika faces poll dispute storm

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Electoral System ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Power Sharing ◽  
Democratic Progressive Party ◽  
Court Cases ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Legal Challenges ◽  
Elite Level ◽  
The Government ◽  
Progressive Party

Significance Incumbent President Peter Mutharika of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) narrowly won re-election, ahead of the main opposition candidates, Lazarus Chakwera of the Malawi Congress Party (MCP) and former Vice-President Saulos Chilima of the United Transformation Movement (UTM). The elections were marred by accusations of rigging, and both Chakwera and Chilima have launched court cases to overturn the result amid sizable post-poll protests. Impacts The opposition has ruled out power-sharing, but this may re-emerge as a compromise option should legal challenges fail. Opposition and civil society groups will increase calls for an amendment to the electoral system, with likely increased public backing. International donors will maintain pressure on the government over persistent budget overruns and elite-level corruption.

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