TurkStream will compete in a complex Balkan gas market

Significance With TurkStream, Russia has opened a new export route to the EU through South-eastern Europe under the Black Sea: Bulgaria, Greece and North Macedonia are receiving Russian gas through Turkey. Russian gas giant Gazprom is now less dependent on transit through Ukraine, although the larger Nord Stream 2 pipeline under the Baltic is being delayed and the Ukrainian route will continue serving Central Europe for the time being. Impacts Plans for a floating storage regasification unit at Alexandroupolis in north-eastern Greece will make headway. Access to LNG will give customers leverage over Gazprom when long-term supply contracts are renegotiated in the 2020s. As TurkStream brings not new but rerouted gas (except for new customers) it will not raise dependence on Russia.

Subject Prospects for Central-Eastern Europe in 2017. Significance In the absence of robust business confidence, Central Europe and the Baltic states (CEB) will implement short-term monetary and fiscal policies to support growth; GDP growth will suffer from global market vicissitudes and rising political tensions in key trading partners inside and outside the EU. The crisis in the EU will continue to bear down on South-Eastern Europe (SEE), bringing an effective end to the policy of enlargement.


2012 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 213-214
Author(s):  
Silviu-Marian Miloiu

The Romanian Association for Baltic and Nordic Studies continued to organize in 2012 a series of events, one of the most meaningful of which was the third international conference on Baltic and Nordic Studies entitled European networks: the Balkans, Scandinavia and the Baltic world in a time of economic and ideological crisis opened on 25 May at Valahia University of Târgoviște and sponsored by the Romanian National Research Council, Niro Investment Group and other partners (http://www.arsbn.ro/conference-2012.htm). The main goal of the conference was to foster debate and academic discussion with regard to the challenges the Balkan and Baltic regions face today, within a time of severe global economic instability. The participants discussed and advanced solutions to problems such as the accession of Balkan states to the EU and/or NATO, with particular reference to the experiences of the relatively new EU and/or NATO Member States from South-Eastern Europe and the Eastern Baltic region; the economic, security or cultural threats posed by Balkan and/or Eastern European states or non-state actors to the Western or Nordic Europe as perceived there; the development of extremist movements and the Balkan organized crime in the Scandinavian countries; the Balkan Roma peoples as a “threat” for Western and Nordic Europe; strategies for integrating minorities in the Baltic Sea rim countries and the Black Sea areas.


Significance In the weeks after the energy earthquake generated by Russian President Vladimir Putin's announcement that Russia was cancelling plans to construct the South Stream gas pipeline across the Black Sea, tremors and aftershocks are still reverberating around South-Eastern Europe. Hopes that the announcement was a bluff intended to increase Russia's bargaining power with Brussels, or that South Stream can be revived, seem misconceived. Impacts Passing the blame for the cancellation onto the EU is unlikely to work, in part thanks to the way in which Putin broke the news. Russia will lose significant leverage over the participant countries, particularly those in Eastern and South-Eastern Europe. The biggest winner could be the EU, assuming it steps into the energy vacuum and helps countries secure alternative supply routes.


Subject The decision to restart the TurkStream natural gas pipeline from Russia to Turkey. Significance The agreement on August 9 between Russian and Turkish Presidents Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan to resume the TurkStream project relaunches their partnership in the energy sector. This had been frozen as a result of Turkey's shooting down of Russian Su-24 jet last November. Impacts Turkey could start importing up to 15.75 bcm additional natural gas under the Black Sea by 2019. Such a reduced amount compared with the original plan would seem to allow room in the Turkish gas market for rival suppliers. TurkStream could be extended into the EU only if the European Commission and Gazprom compromise on third-party access to the pipeline.


2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 207-218
Author(s):  
Katarína Sárvári

Current development of the European gas market uncovers several new opportunities and challenges for energy security that developed from big changes in production, transit and supply ways of natural gas to Europe. New European gas market model builds on the principles of diversification, the security of supply, interconnectivity and liberalization. Realization of the EU Third Energy Package related to a progressive shift from long-term oil-linked gas supply contracts and development of alternative gas supply sources and lines, as well as the rivalry between already established gas transit lines and the new supply lines present new challenges and require transition for the V4 countries. In this article I studied what are the new changes and challenges of the transition of V4 countries towards the EU’s energy security? To adjust to transition V4 countries should build the new infrastructure on the short-term pricing market and the ways how it will be funded. If V4 countries want to trade gas with the neighbours and transport most of the Russian gas to Europe, they need to invest into reforms of pipelines’ networks or to find other alternatives of diversification in the next decades. Returns on investment on a liberalized market with a multitude of competitors will be manageable but require serious reforms. The V4 countries will have to enter into the spot markets to efficiently trade gas. Available gas hubs in Europe are much smaller, less liquid, and mostly supplied by the same companies as the long-term traded gas hubs. This kind of markets is easy to manipulate. Therefore, it is important for the V4 countries to plan how to coordinate their national energy policies and name EU’s energy targets for the future.


Significance Sonatrach is preparing to renegotiate most of its long-term contracts to supply natural gas by pipeline and as liquefied natural gas (LNG), as their expiry dates approach in 2019 and 2020. Ould Kaddour, who was appointed Sonatrach’s chief executive one year ago after a period of turbulence within Sonatrach, has made clear that he appreciates the need for a flexible approach in an intensely competitive market. Impacts Algeria’s hydrocarbons production is declining, but global demand for LNG in particular is rising fast. Securing new natural gas supply contracts will be vital for Algeria’s revenue prospects. Ould Kaddour’s efforts to foster better relations with international companies could be rewarded by increased investment.


Subject Revived plans to transit Russian gas through Bulgaria into Europe and build a nuclear plant at Belene. Significance Russian President Vladimir Putin is interested in extending the TurkStream natural gas pipeline into the EU and is counting on the European Commission and member states to show the same flexibility already seen in the case of Nord Stream. Although the EU-sponsored Southern Gas Corridor is boosting Gazprom’s competitors, Russia could gain advantage by accessing the new transit infrastructure. Impacts Ties to Russia will once again become a hot issue in Bulgarian domestic politics. New transit routes would bring down gas prices and boost consumption by industry and households across South-eastern Europe. High costs and political risk will limit the development of nuclear energy in Bulgaria and the region.


Significance Russian gas export volumes to Europe set a new record last year, supported by increased wholesale gas prices. Energy firm Gazprom aims to maintain its European market share while making inroads in more dynamically developing Asian markets. Impacts Gazprom has long-term supply contracts with European customers lasting until the late 2020s or 2035. Belarus, Moldova, Georgia and the Baltic states will remain reliant on Russian gas, despite sometimes difficult political ties with Moscow. Moscow has offered to resume gas purchases from Turkmenistan, possibly to blunt plans for a trans-Caspian pipeline supplying Europe. Further delays to Gazprom's LNG plans will leave Novatek as technological leader in this sector.


Significance Leading politicians have called for the cancellation for the Nord Stream 2 (NS2) natural gas pipeline from Russia to Germany, while NATO and the EU are considering fresh sanctions on Russian individuals in the military and intelligence services. Impacts Germany will likely increase its capacity for importing US LNG, focusing on the Wilhelmshaven and Brunsbuettel terminals in the north-west. Russia's questioning of Germany's investigation of the poisoning will make Berlin more vigilant over Russian disinformation efforts. Continuing to 'work' with Russia could undermine German credibility in Poland, the Baltic states and Ukraine.


Significance Nonetheless, the Nord Stream 2 pipeline between Russia and Germany through the Baltic Sea is facing an uncertain future. If completed, the project would double the capacity of the existing Nord Stream pipeline and increase Russia’s influence on the European energy market. Impacts The withdrawal of European companies from the project could make it more difficult for Gazprom to secure financing. Gazprom’s debt burden will increase, but it may also be able to improve its long-term strategic position. The project would call into question the future of the EU’s ‘energy union’ and the Commission’s role in regulating European energy policy. The incoming administration of US President Donald Trump will develop its own energy policies in Europe.


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