Low energy prices could delay US net exporter shift

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Trade Deficit ◽  
The United States ◽  
Net Energy ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Gulf Countries ◽  
Energy Flows ◽  
Close Analysis

Significance The EIA generated a wave of headlines with its projection in January’s Annual Energy Outlook that the United States would likely become a net energy exporter sometime in the middle of the 2020s. It would mark a major reversal for the country’s energy fortunes and would have major ramifications for existing global energy flows and US energy policy. However, the projections warrant close analysis and a healthy dose of scepticism. Impacts Becoming a net energy exporter would help the United States drastically cut its trade deficit and strengthen the dollar. US security commitments to energy-producing Gulf countries would continue, to encourage broader market stability. New pipeline infrastructure will be needed to expand US oil and gas export capacity.

Energy reform will hit investor confidence in Mexico

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
The United States ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Confidence ◽  
International Trade Agreements ◽  
The Government ◽  
Energy Reform

Significance The government will appeal the rulings, which follow action by renewables firms. With constitutional battles over energy investments already unfolding, the future of Mexico’s energy framework has been thrown into turmoil. Impacts Increasing energy prices will probably push inflation above Banxico’s upper target limit of 4%. AMLO’s apparent disregard for international trade agreements will strain relations with the United States. AMLO’s pro-austerity fiscal stance could take a toll on his popularity.

China's Indian Ocean strategy will be hotly contested

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Indian Ocean ◽  
The United States ◽  
Silk Road ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Gulf Countries ◽  
Maritime Silk Road ◽  
Silk Road Economic Belt ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
Sphere Of Influence

Subject China's Indian Ocean strategy. Significance The Xi Jinping administration plans to integrate Eurasia and Africa more closely with China through investment and infrastructure, including pipelines, railways, roads and ports under the 'Silk Road Economic Belt' and 'New Maritime Silk Road' initiatives. The former is designed for Eurasia, the latter for the Indian Ocean. This is of growing concern to India, which sees the Indian Ocean as its sphere of influence. Impacts Indian Ocean stakeholders including the United States, India and Australia will cooperate to balance Chinese activities. China's ties with Persian Gulf countries will strengthen as China overtakes the United States as the largest crude oil importer. China's South China Sea and Indian Ocean strategies are interlinked on economic and security goals.

There is no easy solution to Cuba’s fuel challenges

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
New Technologies ◽  
The United States ◽  
Gas Production ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Oil And Gas Production ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Generating Capacity ◽  
Major Producer

Subject Cuba's energy troubles. Significance With a previously generous Venezuela facing economic crisis and the United States tightening sanctions, Cuba’s ability to augment its limited domestic oil and gas production is severely constrained. It lacks the export earnings to invest in new technologies and power generating capacity that could ease its fuel supply problems. Russia and China have spoken of offering assistance, but neither is inclined to provide handouts in the absence of commercial returns. Impacts Cuba has tried to trade more with Algeria and Angola but remains vulnerable to international oil price shifts. As a major producer of both sugar and biofuels, Brazil could provide a model for Cuba’s biofuel plans. Cubans are resilient and accustomed to hardship; the country’s looming economic troubles are unlikely to trigger serious unrest.

Sonatrach chief plans to shake up the Algerian company

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
The United States ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Foreign Companies ◽  
Energy Company ◽  
Energy Politics ◽  
The Face ◽  
October 17

Subject Energy politics in Algeria. Significance The CEO of state-owned energy company Sonatrach, Abdelmoumen Ould Kaddour on October 17 said during an oil and gas conference in London that Algeria would move away from from oil-indexed, long-term contracts and towards more flexible terms. Since he took the helm in March, the head of Sonatrach has called for radical changes in the way the national oil and gas corporation operates, in the face of the fall in global energy prices. Ould Kaddour has made it clear he thinks the corporation is weighed down by bureaucracy and lacks strategic vision. Impacts Foreign companies are likely to welcome Ould Kaddour’s initiative, but will be wary of the political ramifications. Sonatrach’s priority will be to maintain or increase market share against more competition from Russia, Australia and the United States. Ould Kaddour may not have enough time to deliver results; turnover of senior personnel in Sonatrach over the past few years has been rapid.

EU-US economic ties will survive testing US policies

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Trade Deficit ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Transatlantic Trade ◽  
The Us ◽  
Foreign Affiliates ◽  
Commission President ◽  
Economic Ties ◽  
The Eu

Subject EU-US ties. Significance Attracting the ire of US President Donald Trump, the US goods trade deficit with the EU has widened since 2009. While Trump blames the imbalance on the EU charging higher tariffs on its US imports than the United States charges on its EU imports, the deficit is instead driven by US demand. Most US-EU trade is between foreign affiliates and the declaration between Trump and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker in late July reaffirmed the close economic ties between the two blocs. Impacts The prospects for US exports of LNG to the EU will be higher if Chinese retaliatory restrictions remain in place. The US farm lobby will push for agriculture to be covered in the trade negotiations. The negotiations are unlikely to lead to a return to a comprehensive Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership-type deal. Renegotiating US-EU goods trade tariffs will necessarily involve other chapters including services or foreign investment. Escalating trade tariffs would damage the EU but would damage the United States more owing to the size of US-EU cross-border investments.

US financial flows are as important to growth as trade

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Trade Deficit ◽  
The United States ◽  
Foreign Economic Policy ◽  
Financial Flows ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
International Transactions

Subject Exploring the US current account beyond goods trade. Significance The US administration is focusing on the goods trade deficit to measure how well the country is doing in international transactions and to determine foreign economic policy. However, this ignores the many other transactions that cross the nation’s borders. For example, the United States is the world’s largest exporter of services. Moreover, trade is just one part of the current account, which also includes investment income and labour compensation. Financial flows are also important, dominating advanced countries international transactions since the 1980s and driving US exchange rates, trade balances and national savings. Impacts A permanently higher dollar due to the desire of investors to buy US assets will keep the US goods balance in deficit despite trade policy. The US economy is services-driven -- trade in services will grow as a share of US international transactions. An undue focus on manufacturing and goods trade places the US economy at risk of higher costs and slower productivity gains and GDP growth. To meet and diversify demand to invest in the United States, new safe assets including infrastructure bonds may emerge to fund projects.

Religious tolerance aids the Gulf’s expats and rulers

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Religious Freedom ◽  
The United States ◽  
Abu Dhabi ◽  
Religious Tolerance ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Gulf Countries ◽  
Gulf States ◽  
Good For

Significance The pope’s trip highlights the efforts of several Gulf countries to brand themselves as religiously tolerant. Both the UAE and Saudi Arabia are also hoping that the promotion of tolerance will be good for their relations with the United States and Europe, changing perceptions that they have fostered radicalism. Impacts Saudi Arabia will make its moves more slowly and cautiously than other Gulf states. Saudi religious conservatives may object to visits by priests, although their objections are unlikely to be loudly voiced. Abu Dhabi and Riyadh will highlight progress on religious freedom to distract from the Yemen war and (for the latter) the Khashoggi affair.

Fuel self-sufficiency will transform US foreign policy

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
The United States ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
Net Energy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bilateral Relations ◽  
Self Sufficiency ◽  
Islamic Terrorism

Subject US fuel autarky and foreign policy. Significance Energy demand has fashioned US foreign policy since the Second World War but advances in drilling technologies since the 1990s unlocked large reserves of ‘tight’ oil and gas in shale deposits across the country beyond domestic needs. The United States becoming a net energy exporter will significantly alter its role in the world. Impacts US oil output will surge past Russia and Saudi Arabia, increasing US exports to China and giving the US leverage in bilateral relations. Projects underway are set to more than triple US liquefied natural gas (LNG) capacity by the end of 2019, and further projects are likely. Fuel independence will reduce US interest in Middle East stability but could increase US efforts to combat Islamic terrorism. Eastern Europe and Baltic states will invest more in regasification facilities to increase the diversity of their energy supply.

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