Energy reform will hit investor confidence in Mexico

Significance The government will appeal the rulings, which follow action by renewables firms. With constitutional battles over energy investments already unfolding, the future of Mexico’s energy framework has been thrown into turmoil. Impacts Increasing energy prices will probably push inflation above Banxico’s upper target limit of 4%. AMLO’s apparent disregard for international trade agreements will strain relations with the United States. AMLO’s pro-austerity fiscal stance could take a toll on his popularity.

Significance However, the government forecasts just 2.60% growth for the full year 2018. GDP growth in Taiwan is volatile but it is trending downward, averaging 2.5% annually during the years 2011-17. Taiwan’s disputed sovereignty and ambiguous international legal status make it difficult for it to maintain its global competitiveness as a small, highly trade-dependent economy. Impacts Other regional states will find an eager and active partner in Taiwan but they will be wary of antagonising China. Trade tensions between China and the United States threaten Taiwan's economy, since many Taiwanese companies supply Chinese exporters. Beijing may insist that regional trade agreements do not accept Taiwan as a member unless they include China, too.


Author(s):  
Kyung-Bok Son

Abstracts Objectives Recent international trade agreements require member countries a prolonged statutory exclusivity for biologics, and domestic legislation guarantees various forms of exclusivity for specific drugs, indications, or studies. This study notes prolonged exclusivity provisions for biologics in the United States and international trade agreements. We aim to review various exclusivity systems, including chemical entities, in selected high-income countries and to suggest implications for establishing the system specifically relevant for biologics in low- and middle-income countries. Methods We conducted a review of a comprehensive range of literature to develop the framework. Then, a comparative legal analysis was conducted to analyze the deviations among the systems in the European Union, Canada, South Korea, Australia, and the United States. Results There is constructive ambiguity in international trade agreements, specifically for provisions regarding biologics. Furthermore, the selected countries operate different statutory exclusivity systems in terms of eligibility for statutory exclusivity, specific measures for exclusivity, and other elements of exclusivity. In addition, market exclusivity, which is distinguished from data exclusivity, is not available in Korea and Australia. There are also various forms of statutory exclusivity for specific drugs, indications, or studies requested by the marketing authority. Conclusions Given constructive ambiguities in international agreements and variations in the manner of implementations of the systems in selected countries, statutory exclusivity for biologics could be established with cautions to mediate the harms. In this study, we suggest several solutions and alternatives for low- and middle-income countries.


Significance Erdogan adopted a relatively conciliatory tone and stopped short of declaring retaliatory measures, for fear of the economic consequences in particular, despite the fact that most Turks see Biden’s move as an insult and an attack on Turkish dignity. Impacts Ankara’s options for retaliation are limited but could include reduced military coordination with Washington in Syria and Iraq. Turkey could ask non-NATO US forces to leave, but closing the Incirlik air and Kurecik radar bases would hurt relations with NATO. The issue could be used internally to rally Turkish nationalist anger with the United States in support of the government.


Author(s):  
H. Scott Fairley

SummaryThe author argues that the Helms-Burton Act violates general principles of international law. The analysis begins with a brief discussion of the extraterritorial purposes, structure, and operation of the act, followed by a survey of international responses to Helms-Burton by the principal trading partners of the United States: diplomatic protest, formalized dispute settlement under international trade agreements, retaliatory blocking leghlation, and multi-hteral scrutiny in and by international institutions. The author then turns to principles of jurisdiction with a view to demonstrating that Helms-Burton does not meet the applicable thresholds to support either the private right to sue for trafficking in confiscated property under Title III of the act or the governmental exclusion of designated aliens from admission to the United States under Title IV. In this regard, substantive international law arguments in relation to extraterritoriality and nationality, remoteness, the effects doctrine, human rights, and the reasonable expectations of other nations are also considered.


Significance The Obama administration faces an uphill fight in Congress to secure enough votes for TPP ratification, given Democratic suspicions of free trade agreements, Republican animus for the White House and the frustrations of key industry groups in the United States. The United States can in effect veto the TPP's international implementation, while the White House's 'Asia pivot' policy relies partly on firmer trade ties with East and South-east Asia. Impacts The battle over TPP will likely divert political capital and US government resources from the TTIP negotiations. China may benefit diplomatically in the Asia-Pacific if the United States blocks TPP from coming into force. The trade debate may spill over to greater US legislative attention on currency manipulation issues ahead of 2017.


Significance The government is aligning itself with the emerging international strategy against ISG in Syria. Its push to participate in airstrikes in part reflects a wish to reassert the United Kingdom's role as an international security partner, especially to the United States and France. Impacts The government envisages airstrikes as being needed for at least 12-18 months. The United Kingdom will be important but secondary in the anti-ISG coalition, with the United States continuing to conduct most operations. In the interests of its anti-ISG strategy, the government will temper its insistence on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad stepping down. The risk of an Islamist terrorist attack in the United Kingdom will increase. If Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn comes to be seen as correct in his anti-airstrikes stance, it will further envenom relations on the left.


Significance After four sluggish years, economic growth has been picking up steadily since mid-2017. However, as noted by Moody’s, medium-term prospects remain hampered by reliance on copper exports as, in the shorter term, has also been apparent in the context of the tariff war between the United States and China. Impacts According to the IMF, Chile will be the region’s fastest-growing economy this year, just ahead of Peru. The government will walk tightrope between a need for fiscal austerity and social demands. The tariff war will underscore the pressing need for diversification out of commodity exports.


Subject Mexico's brain drain. Significance Recent studies suggest increasing numbers of skilled professionals are emigrating from Mexico. A report by the University of Zacatecas (UAZ) published in March shows more than 1.4 million Mexicans with postgraduate degrees left the country between 1990 and 2015 due to a lack of professional development opportunities. According the National Council for Science and Technology (CONACYT), the government agency responsible for policy in this area, 46% of skilled emigrants live in Europe, 30% in the United States, 12% in Latin America and 7% in Canada. Impacts Emigration of skilled workers will be a fiscal burden as it annuls the benefits of investing in human resources. Policies to attract foreign talent could mitigate the problem, but there is no evidence that this is being considered. A contentious election outcome could trigger instability, further fuelling the outward flow of highly skilled Mexicans.


Significance The National Liberation Front (FLN) and Democratic National Rally (RND) received the most seats, as expected, amid widespread voter apathy. Impacts The government will continue its austerity strategy in response to the low oil price, and face more social tension and protests. The young generation will lose even more trust in the political system and opt for protest, resignation and emigration. The supporters of security and economic cooperation with the United States within the regime were strengthened.


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