Fuel self-sufficiency will transform US foreign policy

Subject US fuel autarky and foreign policy. Significance Energy demand has fashioned US foreign policy since the Second World War but advances in drilling technologies since the 1990s unlocked large reserves of ‘tight’ oil and gas in shale deposits across the country beyond domestic needs. The United States becoming a net energy exporter will significantly alter its role in the world. Impacts US oil output will surge past Russia and Saudi Arabia, increasing US exports to China and giving the US leverage in bilateral relations. Projects underway are set to more than triple US liquefied natural gas (LNG) capacity by the end of 2019, and further projects are likely. Fuel independence will reduce US interest in Middle East stability but could increase US efforts to combat Islamic terrorism. Eastern Europe and Baltic states will invest more in regasification facilities to increase the diversity of their energy supply.

Significance The EIA generated a wave of headlines with its projection in January’s Annual Energy Outlook that the United States would likely become a net energy exporter sometime in the middle of the 2020s. It would mark a major reversal for the country’s energy fortunes and would have major ramifications for existing global energy flows and US energy policy. However, the projections warrant close analysis and a healthy dose of scepticism. Impacts Becoming a net energy exporter would help the United States drastically cut its trade deficit and strengthen the dollar. US security commitments to energy-producing Gulf countries would continue, to encourage broader market stability. New pipeline infrastructure will be needed to expand US oil and gas export capacity.


Significance Trump entered office deeply sceptical of the importance of wars in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan, but his critics say his troop-withdrawal announcements are timed to distract US public opinion from the Mueller probe into his administration and 2016 election campaign. Other critics -- some of them otherwise Trump’s allies, including Republican senators -- fear the troop withdrawals will raise the terrorism threat facing the United States. Impacts A government shutdown tonight would see a further push for continuing resolutions to fund the government, pending further talks. Mattis had been a quasi-envoy to US defence partners in Asia; they will be concerned by his departure. Resurgence of terrorism in Syria or Afghanistan could undermine Trump politically, if the threat facing the United States rises. Republican Senate control should help Mattis’s replacement get confirmed more easily.


2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 307-337
Author(s):  
Jacob Abadi

This article analyzes the course of US–Yemeni relations from the 1940s to the present and aims to explain the reasons for the twists and turns in bilateral relations. It argues that the US government never developed a unique “Yemen policy” and that its attitude toward that country was determined largely by its ties with Saudi Arabia. Yemen began to loom large in US foreign policy in the early 1960s when Egyptian President Gamal Abd al-Nasser intervened on behalf of the Republicans who staged a coup against the Royal imamate regime, which relied on Saudi support. The article shows that President John Kennedy looked favorably on the new Republican regime in Yemen despite the robust relations that existed between the United Statesand Saudi Arabia. In addition, it argues that despite the war in Yemen, which lasted from 1962 to 1970 and caused instability in this region, this country did not loom large in US foreign policy. This was largely due to the British presence in south Yemen and especially in the port of Aden, which lasted until 1967. The article shows how the British withdrawal from Aden increased Yemen’s value in the eyes of US policymakers, but even then, no effort was made to fashion a unique policy toward this country. In addition, the article demonstrates how Washington’s attitude changed in 1969 when the country was divided into North Yemen, which tended to regard the Soviet Union as its protector and South Yemen, which continued to rely on US aid. And lastly, the article traces US–Yemeni relations from 1990, when the country reunited, until the present. It demonstrates how the bilateral relations were affected by the superpowers’ rivalry during the Cold War, the fight against terrorism, and disagreement between the Republican and the Democratic parties in the United States.


2021 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 451-462
Author(s):  
Mikhail N. Sineok ◽  
Vladimir M. Gribanich

The Islamic Revolution of 1979 has filpped Iran's foreign policy around and country has changed cooperation with the West for confrontation with it. In this regard, over the past 40 years, relations between Iran and the US have had mostly negative dynamics, the country has been permanently under sanctions. During these 40 years, there were periods of exacerbation, in particular in 2006-2013 and after 2018, when the United States imposed serious sanctions against Iran, in particular against the country's oil and gas sector. Thanks to the nuclear deal, bilateral relations entered a short period of relief, that allowed Iran to increase its economic activity. The election of Donald Trump as US President with his aggressive foreign policy, has become the reason for the renewal of sanctions, a reduction in Iranian oil imports and Iran's loss of its positions in the global economy. The 2020 US presidential election has given new impetus to bilateral relations. Trumps opponent Joseph Biden has announced his plans for a softer policy, including relations with Iran. Certain difficulties for Iran in rebuilding the relations and its positions in the world economy arised in view of the presidential elections in the country, due to victory of the conservatives, who do not intend to conduct a constructive dialogue with the West. All these factors are decisive for the future international position of the country, especially in the oil market. As one of the key players in this market, Iran plays an important role in maintaining the balance, especially amid low oil demand caused by the coronavirus pandemic. In this regard, the country's oil export capabilities based on the above factors are analyzed and the most optimal option is esteemed.


Subject Prospects for US foreign policy to end-2018. Significance The United States yesterday withdrew from the UN Human Rights Council, the latest in a series of foreign policy moves this year shaking up the international order.


2020 ◽  
pp. 658-667
Author(s):  
Olha Kravchenko

The article describes and analyses the policy of the Trump administration towards Ukraine. Traditionally, the election of a new US President has some impact on the Washington’s position on Ukrainian issues, and the end of the presidential tenure serves as a reason to take stock of the results. Donald Trump’s presidency has not been marked by profound changes in the US foreign policy towards Ukraine, as it was inertially in line, for the most part, with the previous years. The American political establishment primarily views Ukraine through the prism of the security paradigm as a bulwark of deterring its global opponents, particularly Russia. Thus, the article deals with the challenges and prospects of the modern US policy towards Ukraine. The priorities of the US foreign policy towards Ukraine traditionally consist of the issues enshrined in the 2008 U.S.-Ukraine Charter on Strategic Partnership. The article focuses on defence, security, and energy cooperation. In this regard, the United States remains the major guarantor of the territorial integrity and independence of Ukraine. In deterring the Russian aggression, the Trump administration generally follows the approach of the imposition of economic sanctions, launched during the presidency of Barack Obama. It is important to stress that the United States focuses not only on the problem of the armed conflict in Donbas but also on the attempted illegal annexation of Crimea by Russia. At the same time, the focus on security issues has its negative repercussions, as it leads to certain limitations in bilateral relations, as evidenced by the lack of large-scale joint projects and weak trade and economic cooperation that impacts Ukraine’s position in the US foreign policy priorities. In the meantime, regardless of the name of the future US President, Washington’s support for Ukraine will be maintained. The close involvement of the United States in the negotiation process for the settlement of the conflict in Donbas and de-occupation of Crimea would significantly influence the course of events, but it is difficult to predict whether this prospect will become a reality. Keywords: US foreign policy towards Ukraine, Trump administration, strategic partnership, U.S.-Ukraine bilateral relations, process of impeachment.


2017 ◽  
pp. 71-85
Author(s):  
Wanda Jarząbek

The reset in Washington-Bonn relations resulted from a reorientation of US foreign policy after President Barack Obama took office. The new administration concluded that the problems they faced in relation to the international involvement of the United States and the economic crisis were global in nature and required cooperation not only with NATO allies (with whom its relations were also not the best), but also with Russia.President Obama hoped to cooperate with Russia, but some observers found his position naive and attributed it to his lack of experience.The policy of ‘reset’ quickly began to fade out and the Obama administration started to gradually withdraw from it. The Russian aggression in Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea in March 2014 put an end to this policy.The impact of the failure of the ‘reset’ policy in US-Russian relations on US-German relations should be viewed in terms of the policies pursued by the two countries and the hopes they place in their mutual relations. Because both countries have an important position in international relations, their bilateral relations are characterized by a factual and balanced approach. This also applies to their policy towards Russia.


Subject Prospects for US foreign policy to end-2016. Significance The June 12 mass shooting in Orlando will sharpen US partisan divisions ahead of November's elections, making it more challenging for President Barack Obama to focus on international developments in his final months in office. Before his successor is inaugurated in January 2017, Obama will seek to build political support in Washington for his distinctive view of the United States' global role, convey steady stewardship of US national security ahead of the election, preserve the foreign policy achievements of his presidency and manage any regional challenges.


2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 451-469 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anne Jenichen

AbstractIt is a common—often stereotypical—presumption that Europe is secular and America religious. Differences in international religious freedom and religious engagement policies on both sides of the Atlantic seem to confirm this “cliché.” This article argues that to understand why it has been easier for American supporters to institutionalize these policies than for advocates in the EU, it is important to consider the discursive structures of EU and US foreign policies, which enable and constrain political language and behavior. Based on the analysis of foreign policy documents, produced by the EU and the United States in their relationship with six religiously diverse African and Asian states, the article compares how both international actors represent religion in their foreign affairs. The analysis reveals similarities in the relatively low importance that they attribute to religion and major differences in how they represent the contribution of religion to creating and solving problems in other states. In sum, the foreign policies of both international actors are based on a secular discursive structure, but that of the United States is much more accommodative toward religion, including Islam, than that of the EU.


Significance Blinken was told Turkey’s purchase of the Russian S-400 air defence system was a closed issue, Cavusoglu said. NATO member Turkey remains unwilling to give them up even at the expense of relations with the United States deteriorating further under President Joe Biden. Impacts Biden’s determination to revitalise NATO, post-Trump, signals there will be no tolerance for Turkish moves to destabilise the alliance. Sanctions on Turkey’s procurement agency will work against Turkey’s push towards defence sector self-sufficiency. Anything short of deploying the S-400s would be politically unacceptable for the government’s domestic base.


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