Dutch election could be two-party race

Significance Months of negotiations between the government, parliament and EU member states on the Netherlands’ approval of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement -- which Dutch voters rejected in a referendum last April -- damaged the electoral prospects of Rutte's Liberal Party (VVD). However, he reached a provisional deal in December. His success in temporarily parking this contentious issue comes amid the unfolding of a two-party race between the VVD and the PVV in the final weeks before the elections on March 15. Impacts If the VVD stays in power for another term, a referendum on EU membership is highly unlikely. The VVD’s tougher stance on immigration and integration could attract right-wing voters and make it a more tempered alternative to the PVV. The Labour Party may shift its focus from economic to social issues to differentiate itself from the VVD and attract left-wing voters.

Significance The February 29 parliamentary elections resulted in the defeat of ruling left-nationalist Direction-Social Democracy (Smer-SD), which has led Slovakia’s government for 12 (3 4-year terms) of the 16 years that Slovakia has been a member of the EU. The incoming four-party centre-right government of Igor Matovic, while generally conservative on social issues, will be reformist and pro-EU on economic and foreign policy. Impacts While populist, the new Slovak government will diverge from its Central European neighbours in not promoting ‘illiberalism’. There should be continuity in Slovakia’s foreign policy, with a professional diplomat as foreign minister. The government supports EU membership, despite some parties demonstrating soft Euroscepticism.


2016 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 155-164
Author(s):  
Peter Antony Singleton

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to assert the link between the process of EU accession, the consolidation of democratic processes and the improvement of economic and tourism infrastructure to incoming tourism flows. Design/methodology/approach The methodology of this paper involves explanation of an analysis exploring links between governmental systems and the order necessary for economic development and tourism. The argument is supported by the recent history of tourism development in three countries, two within the EU and one outside. Findings Accession to the EU (especially in the case of Eastern European countries) constitutes a way to emulate the democratic freedoms and greater economic prosperity of existing EU member states. Tourism is one of the areas of economy that benefits from the stability and growth EU membership can bring. Accession to the EU has had beneficial effects for acceding in terms of political stability and tourism growth. Originality/value The opportunities that EU membership can bring to tourism development for example (also strategies to exploit these opportunities) depend to a large degree on the international relations between the EU and its rivals. The extent to which tourism demands ebb and flow is governed by a range of factors, but the issues of conflict and security are game breakers. Understanding the factors and trends involved in the peaceful resolution of conflict (democratic model) or use of force to resolve conflict (military model) is key in the analysis of future tourism opportunities.


Significance The minority Socialist Party (PSOE) - Unidas Podemos (UP) government needed the support of several left-wing and pro-independence parties to get the budget through. Its approval makes early elections unlikely and gives the government a better chance to shape the COVID-19 economic recovery and implement some of its 2019 electoral pledges. Impacts Spain’s poor record in absorbing EU funds suggests it will struggle to make the most of the EU recovery fund. The weakening of the UK currency will hurt Spanish exports to the United Kingdom, especially with fewer UK tourists coming to Spain. Greater political stability will enable Spain to pursue a more assertive foreign policy.


Subject The prospects for Turkey's EU membership bid. Significance Trading and investment links between Turkey and the EU will continue to be strong. The economy of Turkey looks much healthier than those of EU Mediterranean states. Its leverage is much greater than a decade ago, while the EU now also regularly acknowledges Turkey's geo-strategic importance as an ally. The way is open for further economic integration beyond the Customs Union in primary agricultural products and services. A sign that Turkey's accession aspirations are still alive is that 2015 marks the first phase of an EU accession plan. Nevertheless, a leading Brussels think-tank, the Centre for European Policy Studies, has forecast that the hobbled accession negotiations will be "halted" on their tenth anniversary in October. Impacts With the rise of Islamic State, the United States and NATO will try hard to keep Turkey on side and avert outright rupture with the EU. Turkey's attraction as a destination for trade, direct investment and the money markets will persist despite the EU membership stand-off. Tighter control of the judiciary and restrictions on freedom of expression will increase the country's isolation from EU public opinion. Defining itself more along Islamic lines, Turkey will have less interest in pro-EU symbolism or gestures implying a Western orientation. Turkey will vociferously attack perceived Islamophobia in the EU, sometimes damaging bilateral relations with EU member states in so doing.


Significance Without a dispute settlement mechanism in Swiss-EU relations, Switzerland has no legal leverage to defend its rights. Ironically, such a mechanism is the most controversial element of the institutional framework that Switzerland and the EU have been negotiating since 2014. Impacts If Bern dilutes labour market rules to secure EU concessions, this could prompt new alliances between Swiss left- and right-wing parties. Firms based in the EU will continue to be able to buy and sell titles on the Swiss stock exchange at least until end-2018. A new agreement (pending ratification) will allow 54 heavy-polluting Swiss firms to participate in the EU emission trading system. Joining the European Railway Agency will allow Bern to access technical assistance and facilitate Swiss train operations in the EU. If Bern abides by its plans to renew cohesion payments, new EU member states may obtain funding for vocational education projects.


2021 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 153-169
Author(s):  
Guranda Chelidze ◽  
◽  
Elisabed Machitidze ◽  

This paper depicts the dynamics of the EU-Turkey relations beginning from the signing of the association agreement, i.e. the Ankara contract, to date. In addition, it aims to specify the factors preventing the bilateral collaboration and achievement of EU membership as aspired to by Ankara. The paper focuses on both the internal and international problems arising on Turkey’s path to EU membership, namely, the westernisation trend originating from Kemal Ataturk times, recent developments in Turkey, the democratisation of political institutions, the rule of law and protection of human rights, regional security, Turkey’s part in the refugee crisis, visafree travel, Greek-Turkey relationships, Ankara’s stance towards Cyprus, the Kurdish problem, and the Turkey-US and Turkey-Russia relationships. The authors discuss the EU Member States’ attitude towards the political and socio-economic developments in Turkey and the way Ankara looks at the requirements put forward by those Member States. We suggest several methods of rapprochement and brighter bilateral prospects.


Significance Given his background and high media profile, the former premier and European Council president could emerge as the leading figure in Poland’s divided opposition. Opponents of the government hope he will help Civic Platform (PO) regain power from the ruling right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party. Impacts Tusk’s return is likely to exacerbate further already-strained tensions between Warsaw and the EU political establishment. PiS will intensify its claims that Tusk is too accommodating towards Berlin, which could also further complicate Polish-German relations. Tusk could find himself in conflict with attempts to shift PO’s stance further to the left on moral-cultural issues such as abortion.


Author(s):  
Matteo Bonomi ◽  
Milica Uvalic

Serbia is negotiating European Union (EU) membership, a process that started in 2014 after the Brussels-mediated agreement between Kosovo and Serbia was signed in April 2013. Although the Federal Republic (FR) of Yugoslavia (Serbia and Montenegro) was officially included into the EU’s Stabilization and Association Process soon after the fall of the Milošević regime in October 2000, complex political issues have prevented its faster progress toward the EU. EU measures after 2001 in the areas of financial assistance, trade, and legal harmonization have sustained in a major way the country’s political and economic reforms, facilitating fast economic integration with the EU economy, financial and banking integration, the adoption of many laws in conformity with the acquis communuataire, new business opportunities, and increasing foreign direct investment. However, the Serbia–EU integration process has also been accompanied by strict political conditionality that has greatly delayed the establishment of contractual relations. Despite major efforts of various governments to comply with EU conditions, it was only in late April 2008 that Serbia concluded a Stabilization and Association Agreement with the EU, which has paved the way for obtaining candidate status in 2012 and the opening of EU accession negotiations in 2014. In the meantime, EU’s enlargement negotiations framework has been strengthened further, making the negotiation talks much more complex and demanding. In addition to Serbia’s insufficient compliance with accession criteria, particularly reforms of the judiciary and public administration, the contested issue of Kosovo’s independence continues to pose a major threat to Serbia’s entry into the EU. Despite the absence of a common position on the part of the EU, given that Kosovo has still not been recognized by five EU member states, the limited progress in the Belgrade–Priština EU-facilitated dialogue represents one of the major obstacles for Serbia’s EU membership. Serbia’s entry into the EU, which could possibly take place in 2025, is likely to bring many benefits to the country and its population, but also to the EU, as this is a region of not only risks but also opportunities.


Subject Finland's new government. Significance Over the next six months, Finland’s new five-party government will be fighting on two fronts: it seeks to increase government spending in areas such as welfare and climate change at home, and simultaneously use its six-month term in charge of the EU presidency to support ambitious international reforms related to climate change. Impacts The government’s failure to deliver targets could bring the right-wing populist Finns Party to power in the next election. The implementation of 'sin taxes' could backfire, with studies suggesting that they hit the working class most in the immediate term. Selling company holdings to increase government revenue could create distrust between unions and the left-wing parties in government.


Subject The Netherlands' 2017 budget. Significance In the final budget of its four-year term presented on September 20, the Dutch government announced it would redistribute a 1.1-billion-euro (1.2-billion-dollar) financial windfall among households. This represents a clear break from four years of austerity and tight spending, a line strictly set out by Prime Minister Mark Rutte's second cabinet in 2012. Impacts An upsurge in the number of incoming migrants could fuel support for the PVV. The government may not address the 'no' vote in the April 2016 referendum on the EU-Ukraine association agreement until next year. The housing market will be boosted by incentives for first-time buyers and measures to encourage home ownership.


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