Militancy may become chronic problem around Lake Chad

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
International Aid ◽  
Congo Basin ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Displaced Persons ◽  
Boko Haram ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Lake Chad ◽  
Development Initiatives ◽  
Chronic Problem

Significance Sparsely populated and usually peripheral to the surrounding countries (Cameroon, Chad, Niger and Nigeria), the Lake Chad area has been affected by the spillover of the Boko Haram conflict. In recent months, international aid organisations have warned of a rising risk of a famine crisis in the region. Impacts Sporadic terrorist attacks on civilian targets will remain a risk. Returns of refugees and displaced persons will be haphazard. Investment in Lake Chad development initiatives -- such as a proposed linkage with the Congo Basin -- will lag far behind plans.

Resurgent Boko Haram will damage Nigeria's Buhari

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Internally Displaced Persons ◽  
Boko Haram ◽  
Humanitarian Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Lake Chad ◽  
Internally Displaced ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Full Control ◽  
Lake Chad Basin

Subject Renewed Boko Haram attacks. Significance The Nigerian government’s previous assertions of victory in the war against Boko Haram have once again been undermined following several spectacular and deadly terrorist attacks. Despite the military’s claims that it had taken full control of Boko Haram’s former Sambisa forest base and “broken the heart and soul” of the insurgency, the terrorist group’s various factions remain capable of severely impairing the security situation in the Lake Chad Basin and further hampering the return of internally displaced persons (IDPs) throughout the region. Impacts While international focus on the security and humanitarian crisis will increase, investments in security for IDPs will nonetheless lag. Increased high-profile attacks by Boko Haram could undermine Buhari’s standing within the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). Doctors Without Borders (MSF)'s suspension of its Rann operations will further diminish services for IDPs and hamper return efforts.

Counterterrorism efforts in West Africa to fall short

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
West African ◽  
Border Region ◽  
Foreign Firms ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Gulf Of Guinea ◽  
Military Assistance ◽  
Boko Haram ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Lake Chad ◽  
Corporate Security

Significance The Malian conflict, along with insecurity linked to Boko Haram in the Lake Chad border region and concerns about Libya's southern borders, is raising questions over the effectiveness of external military assistance at curbing terrorism in the Sahel. Impacts A video released in May in which West African men encourage volunteers to join ISG suggests the group is broadening its recruitment drive. The risk of terrorist attacks will lead foreign firms in Sahelian capitals to increase their corporate security budgets. US support for anti-piracy operations in the Gulf of Guinea will bolster relations with littoral West African states.

West Africa move against militants poses blowback risk

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
International Aid ◽  
The United States ◽  
Border Region ◽  
Boko Haram ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Warm Up ◽  
The Past ◽  
North East ◽  
Border Areas ◽  
Training Exercises

Significance Mass protests took place yesterday in Niger's capital against the insurgency, while Chad's military announced training exercises with the United States to "warm up" for the fight. Over the past year, Boko Haram militants have encroached from north-east Nigeria into remote border areas of Cameroon, Chad and Niger. The regionalisation of the insurgency and the response will see the intensity and impact of the conflict increase. Impacts Population displacements could become a significant problem, bringing added instability risks to the border region. The risk of attacks on international aid organisation personnel will grow as they seek to deliver aid to affected communities. The conflict will not yet impinge on oil operations in Chad and Niger; existing fields and infrastructure are not close to affected areas.

Regional armies deal blow to Nigeria militants

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
International Aid ◽  
Boko Haram ◽  
Content Type ◽  
North East ◽  
The North

Significance Boko Haram has been severely weakened by the regional military offensive underway since February. With some assistance from Nigerian soldiers, troops from Chad, Cameroon and Niger have forced the insurgents to retreat from the majority of areas under their control. Completing the defeat of Boko Haram -- at least as a guerrilla force -- will be one of the incoming administration's first priorities. Impacts The incoming government will seek to fund pledges to accelerate reconstruction and rehabilitation of the north-east. However, it is set to inherit a cash-strapped economy, after one of Nigeria's most expensive elections. As laid out by the respected Borno state governor, substantial international aid assistance will be required. Such reconstruction work will also be important to allow the return of tens of thousands of refugees.

Boko Haram tenacity exposes West African gaps

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Electoral Politics ◽  
West African ◽  
Internally Displaced Persons ◽  
Displaced Persons ◽  
Boko Haram ◽  
Humanitarian Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Internally Displaced

Significance Boko Haram violence affects thousands of people in Nigeria and neighbouring countries. The group appeared to be close to defeat in 2015, but violence has increased in recent months amid a factional split that increases rather than reduces the threat. Impacts The Boko Haram crisis will not fundamentally affect Nigeria's electoral politics in the lead-up to the 2019 poll. The regional humanitarian crisis will likely worsen further, with internally displaced persons (IDP) camps frequent targets of attack. Growing violence is nonetheless unlikely to disrupt life in Nigeria’s political and economic centres, such as Abuja and Lagos.

Africa may lead on displacement management

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Food Insecurity ◽  
International Law ◽  
International Aid ◽  
International Community ◽  
Internal Displacement ◽  
Internally Displaced Persons ◽  
Displaced Persons ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Internally Displaced ◽  
Sustained Development

Subject Protection for Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) in Africa Significance Internal displacement is a growing problem -- both for the international community generally and in Africa specifically -- acting as a source of misery for millions of people, a barrier to sustained development and a driver of food insecurity. By the end of 2016, Africa was home to 12.2 million internally displaced persons (IDPs), 2.4 million of whom were newly displaced by conflict and violence and 1.1 million by disasters. IDPs have long been overlooked under international law, owing largely to sovereignty concerns. However, in recent years, African states have developed regional and domestic protections for IDPs that are looked upon as global exemplars. Impacts The dissemination of the Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement could empower vulnerable African communities. Corporate and non-state bodies will increasingly embed IDP protection into their African operations. Despite better legislation, many states, who will largely depend on Western partners and international aid organisations, will neglect IDPs.

Boko Haram strains under a resurgent Nigerian army

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Islamic State ◽  
Boko Haram ◽  
State Of Emergency ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Lake Chad ◽  
Far North ◽  
North Lake ◽  
State Group

Significance One consequence is that insurgents are retreating into neighbouring countries. Several civilians died in Boko Haram attacks in Niger's Diffa region on November 11 and Chad declared a state of emergency on November 9 in its far-north Lake Chad region. Impacts The significance of Boko Haram's pledged allegiance to Islamic State group (ISG) is far less than other ISG affiliates. The recent Abuja bombings, while claimed by ISG-affiliated militants, resemble previous attacks and signal no tactical or resource shifts. Boko Haram's increasingly weak position in Nigeria would hamper efforts to make any such link meaningful.

Emboldened Boko Haram will undermine Nigerian military

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Islamic State ◽  
Security Threat ◽  
Boko Haram ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Lake Chad ◽  
Lake Chad Basin ◽  
Leadership Turnover ◽  
Operational Efficacy ◽  
The Military

Subject Boko Haram outlook. Significance The Nigerian Air Force announced on August 20 that it carried out “massive” bombing attacks earlier this month against Boko Haram forces regrouping around their former stronghold in the Sambisa Forest. This follows soon after the military allegedly killed Momodu Bama, second-in command to Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau. Yet despite these renewed military efforts, the Nigerian army faces two still-capable Boko Haram factions, each of which has staged multiple deadly attacks in recent months. Impacts The Islamic State-linked Boko Haram faction has emerged as the most dangerous security threat in the Lake Chad Basin in the short term. The military will struggle to differentiate between Boko Haram factions, undermining operational efficacy. Leadership turnover within the security forces will not overcome the systemic problem of under-equipped and underprepared troops. Neighbouring countries, such as Niger and Cameroon, will bolster border security amid worsening Boko Haram and other criminal threats.

Lake Chad donor push will not end humanitarian crisis

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Boko Haram ◽  
Humanitarian Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Lake Chad ◽  
South Eastern ◽  
North Eastern ◽  
Northern Cameroon ◽  
International Donors ◽  
The Government

Subject Lake Chad humanitarian crisis. Significance International donors in Berlin on September 6 pledged 2.17 billion dollars for the reconstruction of the Lake Chad region (north-eastern Nigeria, south-eastern Niger, south-western Chad and northern Cameroon), areas ravaged by Boko Haram since 2009. The sizable pledges reflect deep concern that regional elites, particularly in Nigeria, are not doing enough to protect fragile gains and address a worsening Boko Haram crisis. Impacts Nigerian officials’ reluctance to engage outside partners will inhibit inter-governmental and inter-agency coordination. Despite donors’ best efforts, new donations will likely incentivise further corruption by the government, military and domestic NGOs. Sizable parts of north-eastern Nigeria will remain inaccessible to NGOs, undermining the effectiveness of donations.

Deby will face underlying tensions in Chad

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Foreign Minister ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Boko Haram ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Lake Chad ◽  
The Past ◽  
Rebel Groups ◽  
Lake Chad Basin ◽  
Effective Deterrent

Significance On the instructions of President Idriss Deby, the Independent National Electoral Commission set April 11, 2021 for the next presidential elections and October 24 the same year for legislative elections that have been delayed repeatedly. Deby then partly reshuffled his cabinet on July 14, the most notable move being the appointment of Amine Abba Siddick as foreign minister. Siddick, previously ambassador to France, has been a key player in improving French-Chadian relations over the past three years. Impacts Deby's re-election will draw an outcry from various rebel groups, but none of them appears to pose a serious threat to him. The counter-strike against Boko Haram appears an effective deterrent, but the group's operations in Chad have long been intermittent. Deby, with close ties to Paris, will maintain his pre-eminence among political and security actors in the Sahel and the Lake Chad Basin.

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