West Africa move against militants poses blowback risk

Significance Mass protests took place yesterday in Niger's capital against the insurgency, while Chad's military announced training exercises with the United States to "warm up" for the fight. Over the past year, Boko Haram militants have encroached from north-east Nigeria into remote border areas of Cameroon, Chad and Niger. The regionalisation of the insurgency and the response will see the intensity and impact of the conflict increase. Impacts Population displacements could become a significant problem, bringing added instability risks to the border region. The risk of attacks on international aid organisation personnel will grow as they seek to deliver aid to affected communities. The conflict will not yet impinge on oil operations in Chad and Niger; existing fields and infrastructure are not close to affected areas.

Significance Boko Haram has been severely weakened by the regional military offensive underway since February. With some assistance from Nigerian soldiers, troops from Chad, Cameroon and Niger have forced the insurgents to retreat from the majority of areas under their control. Completing the defeat of Boko Haram -- at least as a guerrilla force -- will be one of the incoming administration's first priorities. Impacts The incoming government will seek to fund pledges to accelerate reconstruction and rehabilitation of the north-east. However, it is set to inherit a cash-strapped economy, after one of Nigeria's most expensive elections. As laid out by the respected Borno state governor, substantial international aid assistance will be required. Such reconstruction work will also be important to allow the return of tens of thousands of refugees.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
David J. Finch ◽  
Norm O'Reilly ◽  
David Legg ◽  
Nadège Levallet ◽  
Emma Fody

PurposeAs an industry, sport business (SB) has seen significant growth since the early 2000s. Concurrently, the number of postsecondary sport management programs has also expanded dramatically. However, there remain concerns about whether these programs are meeting the demands of both employers and graduates. To address these concerns, this study examines the credential and competency demands of the SB labor market in the United States.Design/methodology/approachResearchers conducted an analysis using a broad sample of employment postings (N = 613) for SB positions from two different years, 2008 and 2018.FindingsResults support that a complex set of SB qualifications exist, and the credentials and competencies included in SB employment postings have evolved over the past decade.Originality/valueA noteworthy finding is that meta-skills are found to be particularly important for employability, including items such as communication, emotional intelligence and analytical thinking and adaptability.


Significance US natural gas prices have surged over the past six weeks thanks to falling supply, strong demand from the power sector and rising exports. The uptick in prices has provided a glimmer of hope to gas producers in the United States, hard hit by a prolonged slump in prices. Impacts Declining gas production and rising demand will mean increased pipeline imports from Canada over the coming months. Mexico will pay higher prices for US natural gas imports as the Henry Hub benchmark, potentially hitting demand. US producers that have more gas-producing assets in their portfolio will benefit from rising prices.


Subject US oil demand growth. Significance The oil price collapse from mid-2014 that has caused pain for producers has been a boon to US consumers. With pump prices for gasoline at record lows, US motorists covered 3.186 trillion miles from July 2015 to July this year, smashing the previous record for any previous twelve-month period. This, along with a relatively strong job market and economic growth, has fuelled a resurgence in US oil demand growth after years of post-recession stagnation, and has been a major contributor to the modest price recovery seen over the past six months. Impacts Weaker demand should see a decline in US oil and refined product imports from OPEC and other producers. US refiners may see margins shrink and will look abroad for new customers. However, Latin America is likely to be the most attractive destination for refined product exports from the United States. Weaker demand growth will keep storage levels elevated despite production falls, acting as a drag on US oil and fuel prices. Increases in US freight travel from renewed economic activity will push up diesel prices.


Subject Outlook for Islamist militancy in West Africa. Significance Over the past four months Islamist armed groups have carried out high-profile attacks in Burkina Faso, Ivory Coast and Mali. Such incidents are not new in the Sahel, but the methods and scale have changed. To some extent this mirrors changes seen in Nigeria, Kenya, the Middle East and Europe, where attackers explicitly target civilians in a bid to attract media attention. Impacts The risk of further attacks is unlikely to shift positive investor sentiment towards Ivory Coast, which is driven by strong GDP growth. Airport security will likely come under fresh scrutiny given recent bombings and hijackings in Somalia and Egypt respectively. Cameroon is vulnerable to further attacks given its involvement in the regional anti-Boko Haram force.


Subject Swedish and Finnish defence policy. Significance Sweden and Finland have intensified defence cooperation in recent years, most recently by signing a defence pact on July 9. This comes on top of other efforts to promote stronger Nordic defence collaboration with neighbouring Denmark and Norway, the Baltic states, as well as with the United States and NATO around regional security issues. Impacts Russia is likely to use airspace violations to test Swedish and Finnish military readiness. While Sweden and Finland will deepen collaboration with NATO, membership remains off the table for the foreseeable future. Finland supports stronger EU defence initiatives such as PESCO. Sweden has traditionally been sceptical of EU efforts but has adopted a more positive view over the past two years.


Significance In October, Netanyahu travelled to Oman -- the first visit there by an Israeli premier in decades. In the past few years, relations between Israel and most of the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states have warmed, but this has not been publicised. More recently, GCC states have become less concerned whether their relations with Israel become public knowledge. Meanwhile, the United States is encouraging rapprochement as one of the anchors of its Middle East policy. Impacts Netanyahu may soon visit Bahrain, the first public visit by an Israeli leader to the country. Relations with Qatar will follow a separate track to other Gulf states. A political opening would create economic opportunities.


Significance On March 12, Cairo announced a 2-billion-dollar deal to buy advanced fighter jets from Russia. This comes against the background of new data showing that Egypt has climbed to third place in the world in a ranking of arms imports over the past five years. Impacts Diversification of Egypt’s procurement away from the United States will reduce Washington’s political leverage. The Egyptian armed forces’ prestige will be enhanced by the arms build-up. Gulf funders may exert pressure on Egypt to deploy its enhanced military muscle in support of conflicts in which they are engaged.


Significance Over the past few months, the new Greek government under the leadership of Kyriakos Mitsotakis has demonstrated both its commitment to reforming the domestic energy market and its ability to engage regional partners in a dialogue on cooperation in energy policy. Its ambitious plan to transform Greece into a regional natural gas hub got off to a good start in 2020 with the signing of the landmark international Eastern Mediterranean (EastMed) pipeline agreement on January 3. Impacts If the economy recovers as expected, particularly industry, it should boost domestic demand for gas. In the short term, Greek reliance on Russian gas imports is expected to remain high. Rising volumes of US LNG imports will appease the United States, a strategic trade and military partner of the EU. Greece will strive to position itself as prominent LNG bunkering location in the Eastern Mediterranean.


Subject China's policies towards religion. Significance The past two years have seen significant developments in China’s policy towards religion. A landmark deal was reached with the Vatican last year over the appointment of bishops. Unregistered Protestant churches have been closed. Islamic practices have been banned or penalised, and Muslims detained in large numbers. Impacts Religion will be an enduring point of tension with the United States, given the importance of religion in US politics. Most Muslim countries value relations with China more than religious solidarity; many fear religious extremism as much as Beijing does. State repression of religion often highlighted in the Western media is real, but not representative. Policies in Tibet and Xinjiang are far more repressive than elsewhere in China because of religion’s connection with ethnic nationalism.


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